Champagne Fever fever

From my point of view, he would have got close to Don last time (wouldn't have beaten him), but we know he is best fresh, so he's not too far off the clear Ryanair fav.

With the CC you are scratching back to last years, and the year before form. Based on this season they have treated him like a stayer, who they now have a benchmark with, with Don Cossack.

Going into the unknown with Sprinter, SDG and a 2014/15 Dodging Bullets who is a different horse this year.

Could be pocket talking but backed him at 9's ages ago for Ryanair, and had pretty much written it off. However, when Dynaste came out today, went back in again at 19.0 on here.

Remains to be seen if taquin will make any race also. STFD not running, and nothing confirmed for the denman until jonjo schools them both(tds and holywell).

Any opinions on Champagne Fever's two entries this weekend? In the Red Mills Chase (2m 4f) and the Ascot Chase (2m 5f)....Ballycasey also entered in both....possibility one will run in Gowran and one in Ascot.

Anyway ... they keep entering Champagne Fever in two and a half mile races and so far the only indication that he'd run in the Champion Chase is a fleeting remark from Ricci after his last race.

If I hadn't already lost money on this horse by backing him for the Gold Cup (although he remains in the race after the latest forfeit stage along with 25 others), I would now backing him for the Ryanair.

hmmm, he's a much bigger price for the Ryanair..... on here he's currently 19.0... versus 7.4 for the CChase

You can look at it this way too....SS is not the horse of old, that's pretty much a certainty, SDG is coming into the race after an awful preparation this year....other than that you've got the likes of DB who CF put away last year in the arkle and Mr. Mole who has a lot to find....just think a flat out 2 miles on decent ground is what this horse is all about, and I've said before, walsh did not make enough use of him last year in the arkle where he could have pressed a little harder at times and strung them out more.....turning in last year, they were all in a heap, this wasn't due to CF not having it in him to get rid of them, it was down to walsh not maximising his greatest asset of his strong gallop more thoroughly through the race.

I don't think DB has improved to any great note this year, he was beat fair and square first time, he won a poor poor tingle creek by probably running his race and he picked up the pieces from an unrecognizable SS, but in a division that is very much up for grabs DB is entitled to respect and is coming into the race playing the part of last years SDG and we all know how that turned out...think CF is a far classier animal than him though.

Incidentally, anyone who can convince themselves that CF is Ryanair bound, should (bearing in mind that mullins wants to cover all bases and couldn't let the QM go uncontested) also start to consider the possibility of UDS being supplemented for the QM leaving vautour being allowed to run in the arkle instead of wasting a dart by running both him and VL in the JLT....simples

Been considering that for ages Duffy,but it don't go down well on this forum.
Think it makes perfect sense myself,think he would win the QM,and Vautour would have more chance in the Arkle than the JLT if UDS ain't in it.

I fully expect him to line up in the QMCC, but on paper the Ryanair looks much easier imo.

He's proved he can go toe to toe with the 4/1 fav and with his festival record could reverse the placings with Don Cossack.

As tomdeane said on a different thread, it'd be the weirdest QMCC prep I have ever seen. Nothing at all this year says QMCC to me except the market on here!

Agree it is not the perfect prep for a Champion Chase but he has been running in Grade 1's & 2's which for me is far more important.

Champagne Fever running in the Champion chase depends on how Ballycasey gets on tomorrow (as well as CFs own performance of course)

Can only see CF in Ch Ch

Can't understand the prep run again today a month or so till the Champ Chase. Could leave Cheltenham behind here

I would think he is out for a clear round today, anything else is a bonus.

Can understand and see the angle for backing CF for the QMCC and it must be something they're considering, the market speaks strongly in favour of him running there, but i've gone against it and backed for the Ryanair at twice the price. He's never looked a Chamion Chaser to me, far more of a stayer, so I hope they give the horse his ideal conditions for a change instead of poncing around. My god what a whooping ego Ruby Walsh has listening to him on the morning line.

strange how people confuse ego with directness.

it's in the tone of his replies, he gets shirty when people question his/trainers choices.

Don't he just,very defensive. He acts like he's expecting it,and I guess the way he and Mullins treat the racing public with complete content,it ain't really surprising.

Contempt!!

Anyways when Balleycasey hacks up today CF will be running in the CC.

Champagne Fever has been a huge disappointment over fences

Massive, i thought he was one of the best hurdlers to go chasing in recent times. Funny how things work out.

Its early days yet in the life of CF.

i missed his race today, how did he jump ?

Settled him in Sonko and just popped away. Didnt really need to attack any, took over in the straight

Looked better further he went to me. Cut for both races, naturally.

Job done but when so slow,who knows where they go,imo should be Ryanair but suppose wait for Ballycasey in few mins.

Shocking effort from Ballycasey

Bally who?

Fever must be Ryanair now.

Ballydonkey

Sadly though CF will prob go QMCC. PP still laying 10/1 after Bally's flop. They MUST be informed to do that.

unless you think that UDS is going to run in the QM, then CF is nailed on to run in it....it would be madness to leave yourself empty handed in the QM to have a runner in the Ryanwotsit...and UDS is trading at 50's on here, so it's quite clear what is going to happen.

it's not about having a runner, it's about putting a horse under it's right conditions. UDS does not even enter calculations. He's an Arkle horse and won't be running in any other race.

PP actually cut to 8's now. Second thoughts, perhaps.

CF for the QM and now Balleycasey has given them a line of form, Boston Bob to be Ruby's ride in The Ryanair

2 miles quick ground, gallop from end to end are his optimum conditions IMO, he stays 2.5 yes, and just because he won over it today doesn't mean that's his best trip, he stays it and outclassed that lot today, he has 3 strong performances at the festival all at 2 miles, in the Ryanair, walsh won't use that strong gallop that he possesses over that trip, he'll take his foot off the gas from time to time, and he's vulnerable to something coming at him late on....he's got a strong gallop as his best asset, he can use it(better than he did in the arkle) over the shorter trip....only an opinion though.

Spot on duff. They spent all year building up his stamina after he got chinned by Woeful Warhorse last year - he'll stay up that hill much better this year. QM for sure.

Surely will be 1st ever winner of Champion Chase never having
won over fences over 2 miles before!!
Ryanair is far easier imo.

I'm fairly sure Ruby said he blamed himself for CF not winning the Arkle. He said he should have kicked on 3 out when rest were struggling. I doubt he'll be making the same mistake again in this years QMCC.

I also don't think Ballycasey running badly today will have any impact on where CF runs. WPM has others that can run in the Ryanair.

But his others he may have in Ryanair have next to no chance.

GOOD POINT about 2 miles stevo - but just a quick think I remembered One Man for one.

Good memory Ming 1998 I think.

Price missed and pocket talking ****. CF will run in the QM and  goes there with a great chance.

Mullins said: "That's a nice confidence-builder. It's a nice prize to win at our local track, it's a very good prize on our doorstep.

"That ground is not really suitable for him, it's quite tacky but he did what he was supposed to do.

"He jumped brilliantly and just fiddled the last but that was just Paul being careful as he had the race won. I said to Paul beforehand don't make it if you can.

"I'm just happy to be going to Cheltenham on a positive note, and I'd imagine he will either run in the Ryanair or the Queen Mother."

Tell me folks, if WPM has instructed his jockey to not make the running, what makes you think he is suddenly going to ask the horse to do something he has not done all season over 2 miles at Cheltenham?

Disagree about his trip, needs 20f for me. Maybe if he was held up off a fast pace, then yeah he could win the QMCC, but he won't win by making the running. He's not reliable enough to do that. Will need things set up for him.

Yes I found it interesting they didn't kick on on him and to be fair he settled reasonably well I thought

All top class CC winners need 2m4f but can excel at cheltenham over 2 miles. I expect him to make the running if he ran in CC, i know they have talked about riding him differently but they didnt even try that when he was trying 3miles at kempton.

He's reliable enough on spring ground at the festival over 2 miles, won twice and but for the jock being too conservative it would have been 3...in fact you'd be hard pushed to find a horse more reliable at the festival over the past 3 years.

Is he likely to be in front of Special Tiara??

Cant see that happening.

6/1 is a shocking price for CF. Needs to find 7-10lb on his 2m form over fences.

Appears to me the main reason for running is due to the doubts surrounding several of the other runners.

never convinced me as a chaser.

The race was so slowly run yesterday it would have been nothing more than a gallop, which is a good thing as far as the festival is concerned, but it meant there was no pressure on his jumping. Lets not forget he fell the time before that, 2 mile pace and he could come unstuck again. Needs a trip!

Or the better ground and fast pace is what he needs.

Buts thats proven not the be the case...i.e the Arkle.

But that's proven not to be the case...e.g the Arkle.

sintonian
sintonian 15 Feb 15 11:35 Joined: 21 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 25,758 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
6/1 is a shocking price for CF. Needs to find 7-10lb on his 2m form over fences.

Interesting comment. Had Dodging Bullets 5 lengths behind him last time he ran over course and distance. If he did that again next month that would do...

Are you saying if he beats DB 5 lengths he will win the CChase??

DB has never been at his best at Cheltenham in March - he's clearly left that form well behind him so far this season so i dont see how his arkle run has any significance where CF is concerned

Wicketd so you say DB has never been at his best at Cheltenham in March and his Arkle run has no significance. Surelly it is very significant that two festivals in a row CF has beaten him one over course and distance. And Sint if you think CF's price is bad (which it may be) surely DB's is worse.

DB is not the same horse as last season. I think that's pretty obvious tbh. It's the same with people using Sam Winner to boost Smad Place's form. PFN has improved them both. That's why he is the best.

I've seen no improvement from CF...YET. Maybe he'll deliver on his hurdles promise over fences next month..WPM is saying now the horse is in the best condition he has been over fences. My only contention with him is the trip, other than that he's in top fettle.

In recent history I can only really remember Sizing to be running over further and then dropping back to win a QMCC.

He was an Arkle winner and a total class act though.

2m chasing is a specialist skill imo and its no coincidence that the best ones stick to 2m when at the peak of their powers, which what Champagne Fever should be at now.

I'm not talking about the likes of Master Minded, Sizing etc who were upped in trip because that was when they were passed their best.

If they thought he was a genuine QMCC winner, why didn't they campaign him from the start towards it? They've known all season that they've got nothing for it.

They are going for this because of the vulnerabilities of those at the top of the market rather than what race would suit his skills best.

Have a look at CF's jumping in the arkle...brilliant I'd say, it was disappointing he didn't win but relatively speaking it was a very good run...people are forgetting, in the context of this years race he's a big player, the two market leaders are both very shaky, also why is DB clearly a different horse this year? forget the name of the race i.e. tingle creek, he beat Somersby a couple of lengths in that and bettered it last time along with beating a very sub-standard SS. If CF jumps walsh makes even more use of him he's as good a chance as any.

People keep saying that he's best suited to further but where is this top class form over 2 and a half miles that screams out Ryanair?

Well he doesn't have much top class form over fences. That's why he needs to run under optimum conditions to have any chance.

I don't think he really has any big Ryanair form either Duffy. But the way he's being campaigned says to me they are gearing him towards that.

Also his record over 2m at Cheltenham is great, but the bumper is generally a stayers race and the Supreme was a master rude from Ruby were CF outstayed them.

Also as horses get older they generally get upped in trip. I think they should have gone 2m last year, 2.5 this year and 3m next year. I think they've taken too big a jump going from 2m to 3m.

*master ride.

Chief

you been watching that 50 shades of grey by any chance

watching it, he was in it

I cannot believe sire De grugy is 7/1 the standout bet of the festival that.

arkle i think its a bit ridiculous to judge DB on his supreme form when running to race at all - CF was in form of his life and ran his best ever race.

DB has clearly improved this year but i still have doubts about him for the festival, but to say CF has a great chance based on DB's improved form is just ridiculous

Fancied CF for the CC for quite some time but you have to say,regardless of whos in or out either running or form that 5/1 is pretty skinny now.Trust me i would love nothing more then to see that grey head bounding up the hill on the wednesday in front but can i envisage it on the thursday?...actually no not quite.In all fairness i think the black aeroplane is not the same,...could i forgive SDG a below par run.....yes...and would i fancy DB at 9/2...not on your nelly...(no disrespect to the horse,but am still pissed off with him having done my orchestra's in the supreme)and so with my 10/1 voucher on the grey,im happy at the mo but as blackngold says 7/1 SDG is a bloody huge price to nothing and so am having a poke at that also

i dont have strong opinions on many races as yet but i do on this. To win the cc you have to be bang right....mr mole or dodging bullets will win it.

I would have them two against the field.

are we al in jasey?

I think DB should be fav on the races he has won this year.I had some of Moley as he was crossing winning line .I think DB is short enough for me to wait for the big day.I think he might get pushed out in the betting .Need CF SS and SDG to make it.

can we take DB form literally, whats eating away at me.

He beat a substandard SS and Somersby a couple of times, this after being turned over first race back...it's a division that if you accept SS is gone(certainly the market thinks so in the light of his comeback run) that looks up for grabs if you add in SDG's poor prep, he's entitled to support and perhaps he's playing the role that SDG played last year in that he has stepped in to pick up the pieces, I was never a fan of SDG and think that DB isn't at the standard that that horse was at going into last years race so couldn't have him being anywhere near classy enough on the day.

I'm a committed CF fan over the distance and think that given his optimum conditions for once, he'll be good enough if SS isn't, I would have been disappointed if he couldn't have won that Tingle Crreek if they weren't messing about trying to turn him into a 3 miler, he hasn't won over 2 miles no, but his second in the arkle is still a very strong piece of form so is entitled to be there....his jumping in the arkle was exceptional.

SS was coming back after how many months? SDG as well so forget their seasonal debuts as they'll put in a worthy performance when it matters. CF has alot to find with these 2, he was beaten by an outsider at Chelt with Trifolium only 4 lengths behind, that form is very weak for a CC standard. He also has alot of pounds to find with DB, MrM and BS so I fail to see why he's as short as 9/2, he should be at least 10/1 with the Mullins factor included but alas people want to get their money back from last year so good luck to them. Again, CF was beaten by an outsider up the hill last year, keep faith NOT!

How has he a lot of pounds to find with DB.

It can't be said that CF has pounds to find with DB, last time they met under conditions similar to what they'll face in March, CF beat him, this term CF hasn't had the chance to show what he can do over 2 miles where as DB has, and even if you think DB has improved, you couldn't presume that under the festival conditions he'd be as effective....CF is all about a strong gallop over 2 miles, not fiddling about over 20f in bad ground through the winter.

buddeliea
buddeliea 15 Feb 15 13:08 Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 11,466 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog
Are you saying if he beats DB 5 lengths he will win the CChase??
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I'd take that right now.

@Arklearkle DB improved significantly this season, CF remained at the same level as last year, as @duffy said maybe he wasn't given the chance to show but the price doesn't reflect that. The price tells us he improved markedly and is going with strong claims whereas the form show that he hasn't improved at all and should be at least 10/1. Its a gamble of those that think they got robbed last year, good luck but not for me.

The market also underestimates SS and SDG based on their seasonal debut after injury, while I agree the form of such horses will be lower than before the injury these 2 horses in particular hold enough quality to give a much better account than most people think. Their main dangers are Mr Mole, BS and DB. CF could do better than I think but he'll still need to improve some lengths to get involved IMHO.

CF possibly the most overrated horse around at the moment? Now I'm not saying that he's not a very good horse because he clearly is, but he's touted to win every race he goes for from the KG to the CC. When his form just isn't there over fences to suggest he's quite up to winning these races. I just feel he's a horse that can run to high level over multiple trips, but just falls below top level at all of them.

Timtin you may of course be correct but I dont see anything to prove what you say. I have not looked at RP ratings but when the people working on those ratings leave their jobs and make their living backing horses then I will believe they have it down to a tee just as when all the runners in handicap races flash past the post in a line I'll then know that the official handicappers have the game by the you-know what. I am in no way knocking either group, far from it, but their numbers are not sacrosant. Even the official handicapper only rates him about 3 pounds higher. If Mr Mole wins the Ch Ch I'll run up Cleeve Hill in the nip.

Mr Mole might not win the CC but you're saying he's more likely to finish behind CF right? I'm saying that CF needs to show improvement or Mr Mole to underperform in order for CF to finish in front of him. I'm not willing to back a horse for so low when he was beaten on his ideal conditions by a rank outsider. When he's going to meet these types of adversaries (5 in total with superior form) he will need to find lengths improvment to get them beat if the rest will run to their form. He has the best looking face from all race horses but not going to back him on looks alone

I'd personally be surprised if either Sprinter Sacre or Sire De Grugy win the Champion Chase on the back of their preparations.

One thing I know....Mr Mole is a 2 miler,not so sure CF is,and nor are his connections it seems.

I'd actually be worried that there is a body out there that looks after the interests of the Champion Chase rights that are empowered to sue for liable when it comes to people mentioning that Mr Mole could win the race....I'd be careful very if you fancy this one.

very careful even!

I backed him before he won over 2m over fences(again) the other day,good price I thought,and a darn sight better than he is now after winning that race.
I await Cfevers first win at the distance over fences.

First grade 1 chase win also

Well WP Mullins says it's the QMCC for CF.    I can see the angle.  Beaten in the Arkle by Western Warhorse then followed up in 6th behind Gods Own over 2m at Punchestown.  Not run over 2m since and this is his correct race.  Has run 3 times since over 2 and a half winning 2 and upsides Ryanair Fav Don Cossack when falling at the last.  Good Luck to all who have backed him.

Let's look at it another way.......won 2 penalty kicks over 2 and a half this season which adds very little to an argument that he's better over that distance and also beat when falling at the last against DC....good to see they've made the right choice.

Shockster you may or may not be aware that the time for last years Arkle was faster than the next days's CC - carried 6 lbs less tbf. Dont think the ground was any different really.

Duffy/Arkle  maybe we need at 2m2f race?

Joking apart I'm not on him for any race, and accept your points but although I think he would have lost to DC it would have been close.  We know CF acts around Cheltenham and fine margins may be the difference.  There maybe questions over the Favs for the QMCC but if SS especially or SDG are back then he's no chance.  I think he's a real player in the Ryanair even though I'm on DC.  Arkle - don't like comparing times from different days and races as too many variables pace, going etc.

3 weeks and we find out.

Where did you see the Mullins interview shocks?

Haven't seen it Chief, but he held some sort of press day and all sorts about his runners been coming out. Douvan & Alvisio Ville Supreme, Nicholls Canyon Neptune, Don Poli he wants 4m but Giggs want RSA so wait and see.  All over Twitter.

Cheers mate.  Wondered what all the blue on Oddschecker for Alvisio Ville was about.