Cheltenham Festival

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02 Feb 15 17:28
Date Joined: 17 Aug 05
| Topic/replies: 458 | Blogger: giggsy3444's blog
He's out to 25 for the Champion chase and 21 for the Ryanair! Anybody any news?
Pause Switch to Standard View Al Ferof drift!
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Report bigben the horseman February 3, 2015 10:30 PM GMT
could see this running in the gold cup. john hayles has wanted him in the gold cup all along and he's not afraid to put his foot down
Report giggsy3444 February 4, 2015 8:38 AM GMT
He's now 40 for Champion Chase, 18.5 to back and 90 to lay for Ryanair and 110 for Gold Cup which makes me think all is not right with the horse.
Report jimmy777 February 4, 2015 10:06 AM GMT
Somethings up, for the layers to get it out to that
Report PeteTheBloke February 4, 2015 7:27 PM GMT
Somethings up, for the layers to get it out to that

Or for the backers to let it get out to that.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 4, 2015 8:52 PM GMT
What I don't get is, when one drifts like this, 99% of them end up having had an set back like weeks ago etc etc. Which is why betfair exchange market is a great guide to what goes where etc as regards the festival. But who's laying them at the huge prices? I mean anyone in the yard in sure would surely have some kind of clause in their contract about relaying information etc and may or may not be allowed to lay or bet on the horse they are employed to look after surely? But even if they are, who's interested in a no more than a tenner laying up sometimes £100s if not £1000s for weeks and weeks?
Always baffled the heck out of me that. But long may it continue lol. Cos its these types of markets movements that form 90% of the basis of my own betting
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 4, 2015 8:53 PM GMT
By the way, its not me laying them! I'm a 100% backer, only use the lay button to green up anything
Report PeteTheBloke February 4, 2015 8:55 PM GMT
It's just economics, STS. If there's no one backing it the price gets bigger and bigger.
As soon as backers move in the price gets smaller. Layers don't want to see a horse winning
the whole book because that's a missed opportunity.
Report Howdi February 4, 2015 8:55 PM GMT
just before you are sure he is injured or out....more of that last year went to 26s in world hurdle.
Report CVByrne February 4, 2015 8:59 PM GMT
Think he and Uxizandre are suffering from where are they going syndrome.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 4, 2015 9:13 PM GMT
I understand the basis to which the market is formed and books etc. As most on here know I'm more for the backing, I.e reversing the main rules to which a bookmaker operates and back 10 in a 12 runner race at 14/1+ thus making a profit on the race no matter the result as long as the 200/1ers don't surprise. I get the same level of excitement as anyone having taken the risk and only backed one cos altho it be nice to get 10 all at 14/1 and make a straight 4 pts profit every selection near about is a different price and so careful staking is needed thus differing results reap differing profits.
Love it when the jackpot horse wins of course lol
Report stevo1 February 4, 2015 10:03 PM GMT
Sea on another thread while back you stated you layed Sprinter and Sire in Champion Chase? And backed Bullets was that correct?
Report PeteTheBloke February 4, 2015 10:08 PM GMT
He only lays them when he's already backed them Stevo.

He likes to have most of them wining him a small amount - like bookmaking in reverse.
It's a good plan if you have time to study and keep tabs on all the bets. It's a hard
way for a part-timer to make a profit though.
Report CVByrne February 4, 2015 10:26 PM GMT
Method is sound, essentially trading horses prices. It works in Cheltenham Antepost markets because they aren't priced up to an overround like every other market. So when the market opens on the day you could have a very strong hand then trade out or lower liability on horses you don't want as much as you'll know what the ground is like. It's book building essentially.

I do it also but usually it's based around reading many sources of racing info, RP, Irish Racing, Weekender, Sportinglife, Irihtimes etc.. to absorb trainer comments. Once I see a race nominated or one of two I back the horse on betfair for the race if I believe he'll be much shorter on the day if turning up.

My angle is knowledge of targets or deducing where horses will run at Cheltenham which can yield value. It is impossible to post up what you've got in various races on here so I don't bother at all. Just when I've a decent bet on one with a bookie, like say Zarkandar for World Hurdle, Wounded Warrior for NH Chase etc..
Report stevo1 February 4, 2015 10:38 PM GMT
Agree method is sound CV,but he is doing it to nick a few buttons each to their own,eg backs Pricewise selected Ante-post fickin awful selections normally for Cheltenham.
Doesn't put any work in like yourself and many on here,i watch races on Sporting Life over and over again for Cheltenham,luckily work nights so can do loads of research for the best racing in the world. As you know you get great satisfaction when getting a few at big prices correct,all due to some hard study.
Report CVByrne February 4, 2015 11:14 PM GMT
Each to their own method though stevo, people learn from their experiences. If you find something that works for you initially you latch onto it. I've changed my own method of betting quite significantly over the years but I rely on the same core thing, which is absorbing as much information including trainers comments to form opinions on horses, I've a very good memory so this has always been an asset from the start. 

What STS does, agree or disagree with his approach he's a regular contributor to the forum, doesn't troll people, majority of his posts are part of discussions around horses. You know just a regular forum poster. Personally I don't really pay too much attention to peoples approaches, I've got to a point where I'm confident in my own approach, but succum to my own flaws which I need to eradicate from my betting to improve.

Where other people are on their own learning curve, who knows. But I agree with you, picking a big odds winner out on a Monday night for the big handicap on Saturday is a sheer joy as great as the financial gain. I do love the threads in Antepost forum where someone starts it about a specific horse in a specific race at big odds and it wins. Top marks.
Report rogerthebutler February 5, 2015 10:04 AM GMT
What CVB said in spades!

I love hearing about the angles people use to get ahead in this game and you can always learn something new be it breeding, form-lines or market manipulation. If you can kick it your own way then all power to you - there's too many people in this life making rules about what you should and shouldn't do under the guise of giving sound advice.
Report shockster February 9, 2015 11:35 AM GMT
Giggsy called it as Al Ferof has been ruled out of the Betfair Ascot Chase on Saturday and the Cheltenham Festival because of injury.
Report Cash Is King February 9, 2015 12:04 PM GMT
Surgery rules Al Ferof out of Cheltenham Festival
Report brandyontherocks February 9, 2015 12:07 PM GMT
Giggsy posted the Betfair market drift, but yet it took a week for connections to publicly announce it.

No honesty in this world any more.
Report giggsy3444 February 9, 2015 12:26 PM GMT
I knew there was something strange going on. If the drift I reported fully 7 days ago had anything to do with the issue he has now then it is VERY bad form that it wasn't made public earlier. I hope a few people had their money saved.
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 9, 2015 4:00 PM GMT
Somebody knew, shame as i would had liked to see him line up in the champion chase.
Report paulie wallnuts February 9, 2015 5:44 PM GMT
The same people who knew when Kauto Star wasn't going to make the festival.....that horse was out for  a week before it was made public.....
Report giggsy3444 February 10, 2015 12:54 PM GMT
As if it isn't hard enough 2 pick a Festival winner we also have 2 factor in that we may be backing a horse we don't know is already injured and not going 2 make it.
Report tomdeane February 10, 2015 1:15 PM GMT
Even more of a kick in the teeth for those that backed him that it took a week to come out when the trainer is Mr. PR and even writes for BetFair!
Report giggsy3444 February 10, 2015 5:06 PM GMT
In today's Racing Post Nicholls says "I knew I was having a little bit of an ongoing issue with Al Ferof over the last ten days or so". Thanks for letting us know Paul!!
Report wellchief February 10, 2015 5:44 PM GMT
To be fair to the yard, there are much much worse, and this isn't something they normally do.

When Kauto had his schooling fall a couple of years ago, not a breath of it got out.  I don't remember them mopping up all the huge prices on Saphir Due Rheu before they announced they are going back hurdling.

In these situations he's in a no win situation. If he says he's a doubt, he drifts anyway. Yet if he does make the gig he is critisized for scaremongering to get a better price.

If he keeps it quiet, like this, he is critisized for not mentioning it.
Report tomdeane February 10, 2015 5:54 PM GMT
Sorry chief but I think that's silly.

All trainers are in a win-win situation if they simply tell people what's going on.

Nobody expects Willie to come out and say that this one will run in that race, and this one in that etc... but telling people that a horse has had an injury is just being straight. With this particular case, it was clear that some people knew the horse wasn't right. Nicholls writes for BF, so should at least have said he was having issues with him when he was.
Report giggsy3444 February 10, 2015 6:17 PM GMT
WELLCHIEF I usually agree with u but in this case I'm with tomdeane. People knew about the horses issue and took advantage (I spot the drift but didn't join in) of us hard working punters! Not good.
Report wellchief February 10, 2015 6:27 PM GMT
I'm not saying he's innocent in all this, but I think he's being judged a bit harshly on this thread.  It'd be different if he'd said he was in good form at home, or he was working well.

I'm all for transparency, but he did say it was a minor problem.  There's every possibility he thought he could get him right, but might have ran out of time.  After all, if he is back for Aintree, it must be really minor.

I have no idea about the day to day running of a major yard like his, but I'm sure some have niggles and are behind schedule all the time.  It has to be a judgement call on his part which info he releases and which info he doesn't because he can't be giving daily updates to the media - maybe this time he got it wrong.

But as I said earlier, he doesn't have form of doing stuff like this, so I'm prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Report brandyontherocks February 10, 2015 7:13 PM GMT
If it was just a minor issue he wouldn't have drifted so.

They obviously knew he was very doubtful last week but kept quiet.
Report duffy February 10, 2015 7:21 PM GMT
I thought we were told about kauto's schooling fall pretty much right awayConfused
Report wellchief February 10, 2015 7:25 PM GMT
Just found the thread Duffy!

That was different in that he released a statement saying he was schooling brilliantly, but then released the news about Kauto.  In that thread there was moaning because there was no drift!

He said in that Kauto statement....As a trainer, it is all too easy to sit on information when it comes to your horses.

They have so many minor worries, niggles and setbacks - most of which turn out to be nothing of long-term importance - that you could be constantly updating on each of your string, to the press and the public, on a hourly, daily and weekly basis.

But our policy at Ditcheat is always to be up front and honest about the well-being of our horses - such as the coughing scare last week

I agree with him above but can understand the comments that he could have updated the public, even a quick tweet or something.
Report PeteTheBloke February 10, 2015 7:26 PM GMT
Yep. Full, honest, timely announcements should keep everyone happy. I don't see any reason that a trainer
would have for keeping the truth out of the public domain. Or is that naive? Grin
Report duffy February 10, 2015 7:37 PM GMT
cheers Chief, shows what my memory is like, I was on there moaning about why he didn't announce it earlierGrin
Report Ormonde February 10, 2015 7:54 PM GMT
When trainers have lots of horses, many of whom may have minor niggles or issues at any one time, it is probably difficult for (the honest ones at least) to know what to share and what not to, especially given that they are exceedingly busy.

What should be happening is that the industry media should be on top of obvious betting patterns on high profile horses in high profile races (as this was) and be asking said trainer (who may even be unaware of any market drift). It could then be reported what was said. The Racing Post does little in terms of this - contrast this with reporting on football in the daily papers when injuries to key players are widely reported. An RP journalist could have called Nichols and said there was concern all was not right with Al Ferof and I'm sure that Nichols would have given him an honest answer which could then be reported. The public would then be aware, both of the fact that there had been a significant drift and the views of the trainer.
Report wellchief February 10, 2015 8:07 PM GMT
^^^ Agree with all of that Ormonde.
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 14, 2015 8:35 AM GMT
I half suspected that Ptit Zig may come here as we had been struggling with Al Ferof for a week or so
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