|
By:
Agree with Wicketd - looked like a Sprinter/Frankel performance of utter superiority and made him look banker material for the near future.
|
|
By:
Posted on another thread that I think he will be a bigger price than maybe he should be given that it's the first day and only the 2nd race. I predict 8/11 sp. But do think he will be closer to 1/2 after the 17th of Feb when which is very likely now the entries are dwindled down to just 12-15 area!!
|
|
By:
1/5 ?
That means he's a 1/2 chance to get there. If you're right, he's a good place lay at anything less than 1.50 - interesting. |
|
By:
Sorry Pete, not sure how you're getting there...
|
|
By:
probably that 1/5 & 1/2 is a 1.8 chance which he is now..., so if he's 1/5 in your book he's 1/2 to get there which the 1.8 takes into account...
|
|
By:
I got that far but didn't understand the place lay angle...
|
|
By:
if he's 1/2 to get there and currently 1/3 to place it's evens he places, so value lay at 1.5
i disagree hugely but think thats his thinking |
|
By:
I am not offering an opinion - just turning Tom's estimates into prices.
|
|
By:
If UDS is 1.5 to run, it must be worth laying a place at 1.36 (current price on left-hand side).
I don't agree or disagree, but I think 1.5 is probably a fair estimate this far out. |
|
By:
Laying favs en masse at Cheltenham always sounds a good strategy but every now and again there is a spate of favs win at the meeting. 2003 in particular would have been disastrous (sure it was for some) when favs were pinging in all over the place, and if I remember rightly not many if any were odds on.
|
|
By:
1.5 to run, are you lot mad?? That means he has a 67% chance of running in the Arkle. So it's 33% chance he won't run. So what 1/3 of all Willie Mullins horses get struck down in the 5 or 6 weeks before the festival each year!!!
He's about 1.07 to Run. |
|
By:
Sorry - I was slow to catch on to the implication...
I don't think he is 1/2 to get there - probably about 1/10 although I wouldn't really know... I think 4/5 is actually a VERY backable price right now because I think he is as good a banker as you can find. He might not get there of course, or he might tip up, or boil over (he is fizzy). But the likelihood of all those things is much smaller than the 4/5 in my opinion. |
|
By:
Am just trying to fathom what you guys will think if my prediction proves correct and only 12-15 are left after the next forfeit stage on 17th Feb and he goes 1/2. It happened to sprinter sacre before his arkle
|
|
By:
Am just trying to fathom what you guys will think if my prediction proves correct and only 12-15 are left after the next forfeit stage on 17th Feb and he goes 1/2. It happened to sprinter sacre before his arkle
|
|
By:
I don't really care who's left in tbh, I've my bets on so just looking forward to seeing him on the day.
|
|
By:
I don't really know either, but if CV says 14/1 on, that's good enough for me.
Do you think his SP will be about 4/6 then CV? |
|
By:
What am sayin is I'm intent on backing him until the remaining 4/5 goes. 10/11 on the sportsbook last time I checked. Of us that are doing the same I think we got till about the 16th feb
|
|
By:
To work out what % chance is implied by the odds you need to convert to decimal odds and 1 / decimal = % chance. So evens is 2.0 , 1 / 2.0 = 0.5 = 50% ie a 50:50
To work out multiples it's decimal x decimal then subtract 1 to get regular odds. So Un De Sceaux is 4/5 which is 1.8, 1.8 / 1.07 = 1.68 which is approx 4/6 So if he's 1/14 to get there that implies he's a 4/6 shot. |