Cheltenham Festival

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24 Jan 15 04:27
Date Joined: 21 Oct 06
| Topic/replies: 15,798 | Blogger: stevo1's blog
Does not look a very deep race at present,due to lack of decent UK novices over 2 miles so far. Appears Lami Serge will be best UK challenger to the Irish.
Douvan and Lami Serge go there without another race, both very solid form in book. Next best in market is Alvisio Ville ( Deloitte entry ) has only won maiden hurdle so far.
Then its 16/1 and upwards bar the top three, which brings in Silver Concorde ( bumper winner at Festival ) but beaten at odds on 1st hurdle start. Then a few of Mr Mullins all
with Deloitte entries, Nichols Canyon,Shaneshill, Tell Us More,McKinlay. Obviously they all wont turn up for this,expect Shaneshill and Tell Us More to go Neptune route.
The Deloitte should be pointer where they go at Festival.
Personally backed Lami Serge while back at decent odds, and Douvan in double with Tell Us More in Neptune? Have been looking for lively outsider to back for while keep looking at Emerging Market, Nicholls novice fell 2nd last at Ascot in Lami Serge race. Was entered for Betfair Hurdle, but not anymore. Will wait for entry before backing around 33/1 at present.
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Report delsie777 February 17, 2015 7:58 PM GMT
Agree with formboy - it's easy to say that connections are the reason for the short price, but he was 8/1 ish when he started working the house down. People struggling to understand why they are running Nichols Canyon in the Neptune should realise it's because this mighty powerful stable with all these crack novices are adamant he can't beat Douvan over 2 miles - and they've had their conkers on it! If you've missed the price, you've missed the price but I think you've got to respect their judgement. If they are wrong, there must be a load of eachway value about, but they genuinely think he's a 'monster' 'machine' etc - so let's wait and see. Won't be long now.
Report benkneale03 February 17, 2015 8:16 PM GMT
Paddy power going 25/1 jollyallan after his 2nd to GLV was their day 1 no brainer offer come early!

It was obvious he'd put a serious rating in for a novice at Christmas.
Report Flashy February 17, 2015 9:20 PM GMT
Vautour ran to 155 last year to win cosily and Jollyallan has already ran to 149 with further improvement likely. A double figure price is great value.
Report SoYouThink February 17, 2015 9:49 PM GMT
Anyone know what time the markets re-open at?
Report Fallen Angel February 17, 2015 10:42 PM GMT
it will either be tomorrow at around 11am or thursday at 11am
Report SoYouThink February 17, 2015 10:53 PM GMT
Presumably tomorrow ... why the wait anyway or what's the procedure? Betfair and the bookies have already removed horses from their markets (so I'm guessing they've got a list of the defectors).
Report Fallen Angel February 18, 2015 9:58 AM GMT
I don't think the list is available until tomorrow morning, as an example the supreme still have 71 selections, the Neptune 96 runners. They will remove ad hoc where a horse is withdrawn by the trainer or is injured. I would imagine we will be down to be between 25-35 runners in the supreme once the pruning is finished
Report stevo1 February 22, 2015 10:04 PM GMT
Just over 2 weeks now,what is going to beat Douvan and Lami Serge?
Report HaylingBilly February 22, 2015 10:27 PM GMT
Simples……….Jollyallen. Get on before its too late.
Report wellchief February 22, 2015 10:41 PM GMT
I have a feeling this could be one of those Supremes were a Cinders and Ashes could upset the Darlan party.

None of the list scream 2016 Champion Hurdle winner to me.

In answer to your question Stevo, I don't know. Minimum stake for me in this, as I just can't get a handle on it.

The Tuesday this year is probably my quietest day when normally its my biggest.

Nothing in the Supreme sticking out at me, can't back UDS at odds on, missed the price on Faugheen and no Quevega to lump on.

Just need the Young Master to do the business in the 4 miler ExcitedWink
Report stevo1 February 22, 2015 11:14 PM GMT
Hayling have backed Jollyallan at 16s and Lami Serge 14s so in good position.
Seems like not a very deep race,but im sure must be something lurking?
Wellchief have backed The Young Master for both races,nr no bet in 4 miler, huge 10s imo.
If starts in 4 miler,will go off 2nd fav or favdepending on DP target.
Report Fallen Angel February 23, 2015 11:34 AM GMT
@Well chief, you not tempted by the potential Evs on AP in the mares? if she was fit and well she is several pounds in front of anything Quevega achieved.
Report bonnie February 23, 2015 11:43 AM GMT
i'm with you chiefy, tuesday is normally my biggest betting day by far but as yet i've no opinion on the supreme which is most unlike me !!!!!!!!
hopefully once the handicaps take shape there will be a standout bet or 2.

i'll still have a bet on every race tho !!!!!!
Report wellchief February 23, 2015 12:25 PM GMT
No Fallen, not really tempted to lump on Annie, but do have her in a nice(ish) double with UDS.

You're spot on though in that she's miles ahead, and imo, better than Quevega, but two completely different horses so don't know how her lack of a prep will effect her. With Quevega you knew it was the plan to run first time out, but with Annie, its not.

Yeah Bonnie, at this time of year I've normally had a decent wager in the Supreme but none this year. Recent ones I've had really strong fancies like Darlan, MTOY, Sprinter Sacre and Menorah. You'll notice that only one of them won, so probably good that I don't lump on anything! Last year I couldn't split Vautour or Irving, so was very slightly up on the race but not much (Wicklow Brave ate into any winnings too).
Report wellchief February 23, 2015 12:39 PM GMT
Should add my only bets in this are Alviso Ville 20/1 nrnb, and a little bit on Shaneshill a while ago at 20's on here.

Not particularly confident on either of them to be fair.
Report bonnie February 23, 2015 1:12 PM GMT
nothing in the supreme really fits my criteria, started off in bumpers, won a graded novice hurdle, won last time out etc etc

very much looking forward to the festival tho !!!!!
Report Fallen Angel February 23, 2015 2:09 PM GMT
unfortunately of the 1,2,3 bumper horses from last years champion NHF Shaneshill has only been tried twice and doesn't appear at this stage to be that high in the WM pecking order (much to my disappointment),  Silver Concorde has been fairly mediocre and Joshua lane was thrashed on debut and hasn't been seen since. The Punchestown version from last year was working out better in which Jolly Allan ran. More of the horses seem to be tackling the longer trips rather than the Supreme
Report TheCollector February 23, 2015 2:27 PM GMT
I'm on Douvan at 6-1 and that's the price he should be. Qewy's turn of foot was impressive last time and he is in the book at 16-1 also.
Report stevo1 February 23, 2015 3:38 PM GMT
Wellchief,think Alvisio Ville too big a price now after lto run,
was working better than Nichols Canyon allegedly before last run.
Needs to settle better,which it should due given faster pace.
Report stevo1 February 24, 2015 6:49 PM GMT
Nice price Collector, no market moves since Paddy Power went free bet earlier today.
Report buddeliea February 24, 2015 7:02 PM GMT
With you there Stevo,getting quiet excited about AV in the Supreme.
Report delsie777 February 24, 2015 7:24 PM GMT
Is that right? AV for the Supreme? He's feckin massive that thing - 2 miles around the old course? Thought they had learnt their lesson regards hurdling last time out. Genuinely surprised - was certain they'd decided to go novice chasing. Who's going to ride? They'll need an HGV licence!
Report stevo1 February 24, 2015 7:37 PM GMT
Backed AV in Paddys Douvan free bet market. Hoping Lami Serge does the business.
Report Graeme83 February 24, 2015 8:08 PM GMT
AV isn't the worse e/w shout, but i rarely do e/w. Mullins was annoyed at AP, and my guess is that AP rode the horse for himself and connections, and not the trainer. He didn't give mullins the excuse to say he was staying on well, and that the neptune would be ideal. It would ne suprise to see this fella run into a place.
Report buddeliea February 24, 2015 8:26 PM GMT
Fast paced 2m,right up his street. Wont half be shifting up that hill.
Report wellchief February 24, 2015 8:32 PM GMT
Who do you reckon would ride him?

Ruby - Douvan, AP - Jollyalan, Townend - Shaneshill?

Would it be a JP second string jockey?
Report delsie777 February 24, 2015 8:38 PM GMT
Wesley Snipes! He's massive!!
Report buddeliea February 24, 2015 8:38 PM GMT
Yeh,talking about that earlier funnily enough,be Mark Walsh I reckon Chief.
Report Graeme83 February 24, 2015 8:42 PM GMT
Or here's another thought. AP wanys alvisio in the supreme so that he can ride parlour games in the neptune ? Ahhhhh ?
Report stevo1 February 24, 2015 8:47 PM GMT
Good point Graeme
Report Can't Catch Me February 24, 2015 9:03 PM GMT
I've watched the Deloitte back a few times and I can't really see why WPM was annoyed at AP. Thought he gave him a decent ride. Wonder what he meant?
Report gutfeeling February 24, 2015 9:07 PM GMT
AP very well known for listening to instructions and remembering them until he gets the leg up then he tends to change plan to what he thinks is best, I guess WPM gave him a set of instructions which got the typical AP treatment.
Report Graeme83 February 24, 2015 9:35 PM GMT
I'd guess mullins wanted more effort put into the horses finish, as he's green. Horse lacks experience as it is, so learned not much from not fighting to the line.  We will see what happens. If your voucher is more hopeful than expectant id say.
Report buddeliea February 25, 2015 6:54 AM GMT
BG will be on parlour games....won't he?
His trainers horse is doubtful, I believe?
Report TheCollector February 25, 2015 1:46 PM GMT
Alvisio Ville - yeah, who would ride him? Very very interesting if AP chose him
Report HunterThePunter February 25, 2015 2:30 PM GMT
AP riding Jollyallan surely.
Report stevo1 February 26, 2015 1:33 AM GMT
Not sure if Mark Walsh has ever ridden for Willie? Re Alvisio Ville would be a negative for me at Cheltenham.
Report buddeliea February 26, 2015 7:10 AM GMT
As a backer I would be quiet happy to have MW on AV,and as he is JP.s 2nd jockey,he must be the likely rider I would think.
That's if AP don't pick him of course.
Don't think whether he's ridden for Mullins before makes any difference to be honest.
Report stevo1 February 26, 2015 9:26 AM GMT
Be slightly worried lack of riding experience at Festival tbh.
Not sure how many rides/winners he has had there,
cannot remember him have any winners.
He is 0 from 16 in Britain last 5 seasons.
Report buddeliea February 26, 2015 12:47 PM GMT
I've seen enough of him to be happy with him
On board,if the horse is good enough I don't see MW stopping him from winning.
Report shockster February 26, 2015 2:23 PM GMT
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If you don't have an account with William Hill and you sign-up now then you can also claim two free £10 bets when registering your details and making a first bet of £10. That's £20 in free bets plus a risk free bet on the opening race of the 2015 Cheltenham Festival, which gives a perfect opportunity to build up a betting balance for the remainder of the festival.
Report Wicketd February 26, 2015 5:16 PM GMT
just watched an irish horse preview on youtube with some bloke describing douvan as "the only horse who can get faugheen off the bridle at home"

comments like that always make me laugh!
Report stevo1 February 26, 2015 8:17 PM GMT
We will all find out shortly,short priced Favs in race have poor record over the years.
Report wellchief February 26, 2015 9:06 PM GMT
Mark Walsh's broken arm blows the Alvisio Ville ride back open.  Feel sorry for him.
Report stevo1 February 26, 2015 9:14 PM GMT
Oh that is not good,wont be Champion Jockey now either.
Maybe Townsend?
Report wellchief February 26, 2015 9:48 PM GMT
Was thinking he'd probably be on Shaneshill mate.
Report stevo1 February 26, 2015 11:41 PM GMT
Yes maybe forgotten horse, and i have backed him win any race last year.Off my radar now will be laying off nr time when shortens.
Report delsie777 February 26, 2015 11:52 PM GMT
Cooper tipping up Shaneshill for the neptune tonight!
Report stevo1 February 27, 2015 12:29 AM GMT
The Neptune,thought was going Supreme?
Report buddeliea February 27, 2015 7:01 AM GMT
As far as know no mention of which race Shaneshill goes for,you heard something I aint Stevo?

So I'm guessing now that Townend would be on Mullins other horse in this,hope it's AV.
Report delsie777 February 27, 2015 8:41 AM GMT
Preview last night - re Neptune -
Cooper- I'll ride outlander. Trip will suit well. Jumps, travels but people are forgetting Shaneshill.

Go figure, budd.
Report stan246 February 27, 2015 9:32 AM GMT
Who rides Alvisio, do we think?
Report stevo1 February 27, 2015 9:39 AM GMT
budd no I aint heard anything mate,just surprised Coopers comment re Shaneshill for Neptune.
Report stewarty b February 27, 2015 10:50 AM GMT
just watched an irish horse preview on youtube with some bloke describing douvan as "the only horse who can get faugheen off the bridle at home"

comments like that always make me laugh!

But if it's true...
Report Slabster February 27, 2015 12:55 PM GMT
Highly doubt Shaneshill will run in the same race as Nichols Canyon, so will probably be the Supreme. Don't see why Cooper would know where Shaneshill is going, makes no sense for Wylie to run them both in the Neptune when you could make a case for either to be in the Supreme.
Report alleged22 February 27, 2015 1:06 PM GMT
shaneshill has been campaigned as if Neptune is the target, nicholls canyon has just won the best supreme trial easily, but we are talking about willie mullins so who knows....... Plain
Report buddeliea February 27, 2015 5:01 PM GMT
Ok Stevo cheers mate.

So basically we don't know and as Slabster says,why would cooper know?? And same race as Ncanyon??? if indeed that's where NC goes!!

Just too much speculation on here sometimes imo
Report Slabster February 27, 2015 5:55 PM GMT
If it was up to me I'd have Nichols Canyon in the Supreme and run Douvan in the Neptune. Nichols Canyon had the Deloitte won on the home bend such was the speed he showed and he wasn't going any further away from Windsor Park at the line, and you could make  a case for that horse getting closer/reversing the form in the Neptune. But it's not up to me Devil
Report stevo1 February 28, 2015 9:44 AM GMT
Sizing John under the radar for Supreme, won a Grade 1 lto
form boosted this week.
Slight negative trainer-form but at 33s, could be e/w bet if travelling.
Report stevo1 February 28, 2015 9:56 AM GMT
25/1 e/w with PP maybe way to as free bet if Douvan wins.
Report sintonian February 28, 2015 12:56 PM GMT
It's seems pretty obvious to me that NC will be in the Neptune, and if Shaneshill is ready he'll be in the Supreme. NC was a 2m flat horse.. the neptune distance will bring out the best in him.
Report alleged22 February 28, 2015 1:00 PM GMT
I agree with slabster if NC  were mine he,d be in the supreme Happy
Report buddeliea February 28, 2015 1:49 PM GMT
Owner says NC goes Neptune,think that is right decision if that is the case.
He would probably run a big race in either to be honest,but a horse that as Sint says was  2m flat horse suggests to me that the Neptune would be ideal.
Report shockster February 28, 2015 1:59 PM GMT
Cardinal Walter absolutely sluiced up in the first at Doncaster. Good news for Qewy backers as franked the form in good style.
Report buddeliea February 28, 2015 2:13 PM GMT
Yep,pleased to see that.
Report TheCollector March 1, 2015 8:36 AM GMT
I'm on Douvan at 6-1 but I have my doubts to be honest. High knee action may need soft, beat 3 milers last time, lack of a prep run, ain't had to dig in yet, favs poor record. I don't care about the hype from the stable cos that stable could run the local donkey and certain people would have you that its a superstar - Pont Alexandre, Boston Bob, Annie Power...all taken care of for starters

Had Shaneshill and Allez Colombieres yonks ago and one has died and the other is almost still alive! Took Qewy today after C Walter's 15 lengths romp. Was immediately taken by Qewy's turn of foot LTO and with the form well and truly franked he is good value.
Report buddeliea March 1, 2015 8:42 AM GMT
Wise man.
Any ideas on his jockey??
Report TheCollector March 1, 2015 8:58 AM GMT
Sam Twiston-Davies I think. Rode him on debut and don't think has anything for Supreme.
Report wellchief March 1, 2015 11:34 AM GMT
When JP put Choc Thornton on Captain Cee Bee in the Supreme, did JP have an established second jockey then?  Genuinely don't know, so asking the question.

Just if he did, it didn't stop him putting someone one who didn't really have any connections to the stable or the owner.  I wouldn't rule out someone based in England to ride Alvisio Ville.

I'd understand putting a second string on an outsider, but if Alviso is as good as they thought before the Deloitte, I think they'd want an established jockey on him like a Fehily or a Jacob, because unless I'm missing an obvious one, I can't see an obvious ride for them.
Report Border Reiver March 1, 2015 7:28 PM GMT
I was at the Newbury meeting when both Cardinal Walter and Qewy ran against each other, I backed The Cardinal and there was good money for him too, turning in my selection was tanking along and looked two out as if he just had to press the button and he was away, but Qewy came on the scene and simply blew him away .
Was deeply impressed, good time, given conditions and suitably impressed both M coy and BJ (Runner up)Hence the Cardinal won well yesterday giving the form a solid look, I believe given a slice of luck in running this Qewy has a massive chance in the supreme as he can travel and quicken at the business end. I am too, interested in the jockey as noted in above posts. My gut feeling is AP would like to ride, but seemingly tied, will be at Sandown on Saturday and will listen to all views including AP`S after racing, GL to all concerned and involved.
Report stan246 March 1, 2015 8:55 PM GMT
A Ville not going?
Report wellchief March 1, 2015 9:01 PM GMT
Just looking at the exchange then and noticed that too.  No money waiting to back and out to 25's for the Supreme?
Report stan246 March 1, 2015 9:06 PM GMT
And not like a switch of plan either - no support for Neptune. Must have had a setback / bad piece of work
Report Fallen Angel March 3, 2015 10:26 AM GMT
The other Mullins runners likey for the supreme are incredibly weak both TUM and AV seem like the might miss the race although they have been fluctuating quite wildly in the last few weeks. I assume we might have a few more answers tomorrow when the decs are out.
Report stevo1 March 4, 2015 5:28 PM GMT
All the leading horses stand their ground for Tuesday,Mullins still got AV and TUM still entered and Shaneshill.
As well as Nichols Canyon,obviously couple of these going Neptune.
Report wellchief March 4, 2015 7:03 PM GMT
At the Aintree preview night Charlie Longsdon was very sweet on Lami Serge.

Lami beat one of his at Newbury, Kilcooley really easily (6 lengths) and at the time Kilcooley was only rated 133 and now he is rated 161.  He said that was by far the best piece of form on offer because he thinks Kilcooley is an excellent horse, so he thinks Lami can run to an equally high rating.
Report sintonian March 5, 2015 2:46 PM GMT
Good stuff, hope he is right.
Report stevo1 March 5, 2015 3:51 PM GMT
Lami Serge rated 153 at present,lot of his form been franked,and being by Kings Theatre could improve more
given better ground,as only been running on soft so far.
Hopefully will end Hendersons run of placed horses in race,9 top fours in last 8 seasons.
Report sintonian March 5, 2015 7:02 PM GMT
yep, he's done everything but win, NJH. It'll happen one day!
Report stevo1 March 7, 2015 9:17 PM GMT
Mullins to have 4 runners in this? Reckon only 12 runners he didnt mention TUM in RP column today?
Report delsie777 March 7, 2015 9:22 PM GMT
Think TUM is a bone of contention. Mullins really pleased with him this last week and clearly favoured the Neptune route. Giggy have committed him to the Supreme. Maybe after Mullins column was written? So the Supreme is where he is at the moment - but with these connections things can change very late - remember First Lieutenant being switched about late for the last 2 seasons.
Report marychain1 March 7, 2015 9:57 PM GMT
I am coming round to Lami Serge.
Report stevo1 March 7, 2015 10:00 PM GMT
Good man mary you know it makes sense.
Report stevo1 March 7, 2015 10:05 PM GMT
Delsie given up on TUM tbh,think trainer got hump over Don Poli as well lol.
Report delsie777 March 7, 2015 10:11 PM GMT
Never mind stevo - you know that however things might go for the first 3 days, you always have those tasty tickets on Hargam in The Triumph to get you out of jail and set you up for those last day good things in the final 3 races! GL with all yours mate.
Report stevo1 March 7, 2015 11:20 PM GMT
Delsie hope dont have to wait that long matey,best of luck yourself next week.
Report Ming_the_Merciless March 8, 2015 8:44 AM GMT
'I am coming round to Lami Serge.'

me too, tried to find something else but this will do at 4/1 if i can get it.
Report sintonian March 8, 2015 9:16 AM GMT
Mary you put it up as a NAP on the 3rd
Report geoff m March 8, 2015 9:22 AM GMT
Ming 7/2 on sportsbook with free bet if it wins
Report comingupthehill March 8, 2015 11:21 AM GMT
geoff its 3 free bets on sportsbook if it wins ,as long as it dosent end up 11/4sp
Report stevo1 March 9, 2015 12:19 PM GMT
12 declared Mullins with 4, think he may get share of prizemoney ffs.
Hoping Douvan gets stuffed,as got 5 at decent prices to beat it lol.
Not long now 25 hrs and 10 mins to the off!
Report HunterThePunter March 9, 2015 12:35 PM GMT
Ditto stevo1. I've got Lami, Jollyallan, Shaneshill and Qewy all at good prices. Come on! !
Report cats-eyes March 9, 2015 1:09 PM GMT
Hope Douvan wins for as holding £50e/w 12/1 come on Ruby :-)
Report Brooksielad March 9, 2015 4:49 PM GMT
Shaneshill has a very champagne feverish profile going on :) Think he'll out stay everything imo
Report stevo1 March 9, 2015 6:20 PM GMT
Ladbrokes gone 3/1 Douvan for limited time
Report stevo1 March 9, 2015 6:21 PM GMT
From 9.00 am tomorrow, re ATR.
Report alleged22 March 9, 2015 8:14 PM GMT
half the field have to try and overcome the run in last 52 days stat Plain
Report TheCollector March 9, 2015 8:26 PM GMT
1 - Douvan

2 - Qewy

3 - Shaneshill
Report cricketnut2 March 10, 2015 1:38 PM GMT
Favourite wins and the bookies are quaking in their boots.
Report stevo1 March 10, 2015 11:22 PM GMT
Well done collector
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