Argento / Bet Bright Chase

Slybet go 3 places, 1/5th odds...

Thanks for that - really weird, I looked an hour ago and none of them were going 3 places, but now most of them are... Wonder if Holywell might run and they've just heard?

Not sure Smad Place gets the trip either but receiving 8lb will help.

Surprised people saying SP wont stay,looks a real stayer to me.

If reproducing RSA run he has to go close

RACE HAS A HISTORY OF A LIVELY OUTSIDER.

Won over 24f only twice Budde from 10 runs and they were both at class 3 level. Bet you were not aware of that right?

Smad Place outstayed Sam Winner at Newbury last Feb. I was there and the ground was desperate. They had to miss out the first 2 fences in the home straight and Harry Topper won on the same card by over 20l which in itself shows what a bog it was. I've had a saver on Smad as the weights really favour him, but happy with my main bet on Black Thunder.  He's going the right way and if Mr. Nicholls has entered just him then I'm happy at 12/1.

yep, if he were not in receipt of weight i'd have him as 4th/5th favourite.

Not sure what you on about Sint,I know his form as well as anyone,it's there for all to see.

Yes Shock, he stays alright. Ran a good race in the RSA and think he's an intersting one for the Gold Cup at the prices.

Have had a little play on Black Thunder in this at 10s antepost with the 3 places korals offering. Had a bit of drama before being laid though by the nice looking girl behind the counter in the North Shields shop

I pass slip over explaining it is antepost for Saturday

Girl puts it straight through the till

Being nice i reply "Don't you want to double check that price and place terms of the bet please"

Girl reply "Why do i have to check the place terms?" looking all confused "Why what is it for?"

"It is the betbright chase on Sat" So she brings the screen up all is well and she reports that at the moment there is 8 runners and so it is 3 places but if a non runner then it will be 2 places So when i explain to her it is an antepost bet and that i will be paid 3 places even if only 3 run she tried to argue with me and said do you want the bet or not! Absolutely crazy

at least she was nice looking



probably her best trait

See shouldn't complain being laid by nice looking girl!!1

Shhh the wife might see this

seathes be carefull I had a similar beta  few years back in the arkle a few years back  ,I backed menorah a few weeks before the race when there were about 10-12 runners ,on the day of race less than 8 ran and menorah placed 3rd ,went into laddies and put slip  over and bird says its a loser ,the till didn't recognise it as a winner ! had a right hoo ha trying to explain and went back 2 times before it was settled and paid out !

I have also been there before foyleswar. It is frustrating when it happens but the main thing is to stay calm and be patient cos you know your in the right. When it happened to me I was in a different shop to the one that i had the bet placed with and when they rang the shop it was them that explained that they were wrong and it should have a return. This was this same shop believe it or not and i was trying to collect in Preston. If i have a similar return i will just calmly request that they read the rules and or phone their manager.

I lost out on a special double going back to 2000 on the phone.  It was a special "Ceefax" (on C4 actually) offer with the tote.  They were offering 120/1 special double for Strong Promise to win its prep and the gold cup and 1/4 a place.  I rang up and asked them to check with the traders regarding the place offer.  They did this and confirmed it was 1/4 for the place.  Anyway Strong Promise duly placed in both and they paid me to 1/10 for the place.  I complained and it went to IBAS and I lost even though they had a recording of the phone call and they said that it was down to human error and everybody knows on special doubles it pays 1/10.

Couldn't believe it

Baffled by the Smad Place not staying opinions. Smacks more of looking at numbers than watching him race imo.

Won twice over fences over 3 miles, once out staying Sam Winner on heavy ground. Also was only beaten a whisker in an RSA and never stopped galloping.

Proper stayer imo.

Baffled me too my friend.
Outstaying Sam Winner on heavy ground says it all.

Agree with the last two guys completely.  10 of his last 11 runs were at 3m, so if he doesn't stay I'm sure he would have been re-routed by now!

Yep. I'm jumping on this bandwagon too... Can't understand either...anyone suggesting he won't stay can't have watched him race! Particularly as a novice in the RSA when him and the winner pulled right way and both flew up the hill.

I've just seen he's best priced 16/1 now!!

Sorry for presenting you with the facts folks. Guess they're not welcome on here when someone's had a punt.

Ah facts

C'mon sint, you have to admit you look at his two runs at the end of last season and it screams strong stayer. You can hardly think my view is madness? or way off the mark it's got plenty of basis in evidence.

Never said it was madness CV, I just expressed doubts and presented some evidence as to why. Then Buddelia claims not to understand what was presented. Form says he has won over 3 miles 2 times from 10 attempts both at class 3 level. Yes, he beat Sam Winner, but it's clutching at straws a bit to suggest SW was the same last season, PFN has clearly improved him. In any case, I also said in receipt of 8lb it will give him an advantage against the rest so it's not like I said he can't win, the Argento is his Gold Cup really given the terms of the race.

And the prize money has recently increased so he's probably been saved for it.

You can't really say this is Smads Gold Cup. Yes he has the weight advantage and he has to put in a strong performance, but his Festival pedigree says he should be in the mix in the Gold Cup. 2 2nds in the World Hdle and 2nd in the RSA says to me he has the class.

I would say Saturdays race will be hoped as a nice stepping stone not the seasons objective.

I think it is. He's fallen short of the highest level every time he's tried so i'd expect him to be trying for his life this Saturday, it's his level imo. Then you have the trainer who's a bit overrated given the volume of high quality animals he gets.

Couldn't disagree with you more Sint. Getting beaten by that little in the biggest 3m novice championship race of the season doesn't really constitute falling short in my view. He has competed at the highest level throughout his career so why can't he again?

I'm not talking about Saturday's race Sint.
All I was saying is he stays and that it was in the form book which we can all see. He's staying really well in the RSA,and say what you like re Sam Winner but he's a true stayer,and to outstay him on heavy ground,you have to stay.
If anyone says Smad Place don't stay at least 3m,then imo they are not watching him,and ignoring the form.

I said on another thread,probably CV,s gold cup one,that I would be looking at proper staying types for the gold cup this season.
Smad Place imo is one.
Not betting on this race Saturday,but I will be watching with interest,and in particular Smad after his below par performance in the Hennessey.Should run much better I would hope,but whatever happens he will be primed come March.........hopefully!!

I think you could always argue that Smad may lack the ultimate class at the highest level, but I don't think you can doubt his stamina.

He had Sam Winner and Carlingford Lough behind him in the RSA, and strongly suspect Many Clouds would not have got near him had he stayed on his feet; and he had Dynaste miles back in a World Hurdle.

The weights are obviously favourable for him in the Argento, but he's hardly thrown in.  He's getting 8lbs of Dynaste, Bolster, Many Clouds and Holywell, but rated between 14lbs and 8lbs lower than them.

I'd argue though that Dynaste's rating is based on his 2.5m form, Holywell is out of form, I think Smad is possibly a better horse than Many Clouds and although the Bolster loves Cheltenham, he hasn't raced for a long time.

Sorry 4lbs off Holywell

The thing with saying Smad has fallen short at the highest level. He lost the RSA by 1/2l and if O'Faoilains Boy had say, hit the last or had a different jock Smad would be an RSA winner. 1/2 where both horses are galloping on at the end of the race. That's the evidence for me he's got the stamina at the top level. RSA is the trial for the Gold Cup these days.

Denman, Long Run, Bobs Worth, Lord Windermere all highest placed finisher in the RSA won next years Gold Cup. Strong stat for Smad tbh.

Hard to use last seasons Sam Winner as a yardstick for Smad Place, also last seasons RSA does not look a very good race imo.

Will be interesting race on saturday.

Well that's another story whether he's good enough,he may not be. I am hoping he is cos I think he's a Gold cup type in that he will relish 3m2 f at Cheltenham. He seems to like it there. And imo the book says he stays.so do my eyes.

tbf the 1st and 3rd in RSA haven't been seen. Ballycasey has won this season. Carlingford lough ran huge race fto in Lexus will come on a ton. Sam Winner came 3rd in the Lexus and has won couple of races.

Seems a fair renewal so far. If anything the season befores renewal looked poor and it had the Gold Cup winner!!!

Don't get me wrong, I'm not doubting his class - backed him pre Hennessey at 20's for the Gold Cup, so I would have been better waiting.

To place in a World Hurlde at 5 and 6 shows class, as well as last years RSA after an interrupted prep - but (there's always a but), I'm not sure if he is a nearly horse - he nearly won the RSA, he placed in World Hurdles etc - just never really ever been able to get his head in front.

The Giant Bolster looks a bit underrated by the market just now. Ran perfectly respectably at Haydock (4.5 lengths behind Dynaste). Only 4 career chase wins (3 of 'em on the New Course), won last years renewal - yep, on less favourable terms this year but won comfortably last year. Admittedly the latest renewal looks a better race than last year in hindsight but I'm not sure it would have done at the time (if you see what I mean...)

The other thing bugging me a bit is that all the sexier, progressive types are at least 8yo so how progressive are they likely to be?

He's the second highest rated horse in the race (third at the weights if you factor in the concession of 4lbs to Holywell) and he's performing over his optimum C&D.

Oh, and at the risk of stating the obvious, he was 3rd in the Gold Cup beaten less than a length.I'm actually struggling to think of one single reason why he won't run a big race.

Instinctively, I'd be disappointed if Smad Place can't beat him in receipt of 10lbs but the form book is telling me he's the solid ew proposition and placepot banker here. Hmmmm...

Holywell a non runner.

Waiting for better ground is the reason.

Joined the Giant Bolster bandwagon this morning @ 7/1 3 places. Looks like i was approx 2 minutes just in time too

No Double Ross either???

That changes the complexion of the race as the PACE horse has gone.  Not sure who'll take them along.

Had a saver on Black Thunder to back my Theatre Guide play... 8.6 seems fair... plenty of blue on Oddschecker... only the 6 line up but should be a cracking race with a case to be made for each of the contenders...

^^^^  think you,ll get bigger tomoz on the high st imo

Maybe, but off to footy early tomorrow... will watch the race in the books and maybe go in again on BT if it drifts...

BT pricewise tomorrow?

No chance BT drifts now tomorrow, small field and it has been price wised at 9/1 billys 9am shops and korals 8:30am shops.

we have last years winner and gold cup placed, the Ryanair winner and KG second, the Hennessey winner, add into the mix SP getting weight RSA 2nd.


I see he is a best price 7,s   

BLACK THUNDER SMAD PLACE RFC

Hopefully Dynaste wins this on way to Gold Cup.

I think Dynaste is very short with stamina to prove.

His three wins over 3m+ have been at Kempton, Haydock & Aintree. Different task today.

94 posts in and Many Clouds hardly gets a mention.


I have TG at 25 ap first 3 but i will backing Many Clouds today, any sort of improvement makes him a clear winner.

alleged22   
20 Jan 15 21:59 
Joined:   18 Feb 12      | Topic/replies: 3,906  | Blogger: alleged22's blog   



many clouds for me with TGB thereabouts as usual Happy


im with ya sonko

Well if he is a Gold Cup player he needs to win this.

I've backed Dynaste. I think people are thinking too much of grands crus in terms of trip. Grands Crus never showed any staying power over fences. Dynaste has shown plenty.

i think it's 9/4 will he stay - he's by far the clasiest.

gl

plumped for TGB 7/1 ew in the end.

...and a small reverse forecast TGB and Smad Place.

Intriguing race...

Loving Many Clouds jumping

well done Ibra.


Smad Place....2/11 at the trip now. Should go for the Ryanair.

Top performance that was from Many Clouds. But bunch finishes, I'd be surprised if he won the Gold Cup on better ground.

well done alleged too

Think you are sort of right about smad place sint, he isnt good enough.

Have off sint, Smad Place was staying on the best at the finish there ffs. He's just not good enough for this level. He's 11282 at 3m+ over fences.

You're not still suggesting he doesn't stay though are you Sint?

for horse that supposedly stays so well he gets beat a lot in staying races.

There is a difference between not being good enough and not staying though.

How anyone can watch that and suggest he doesn't get 3m is beyond me.

He gets beat because he is not good enough,not being a non stayer

well done IS, alleged, other winners, MC's a smashing horse and has been well campaigned by an astute trainer.

Christ alive. I state clearly why he might not win before the race, he gets beat on favourabe terms and it's me who cannot see it correctly.

I backed Smad but the best horse in that race won,no complaints.

watching it back, the winner was actually going away a little right at the death...

Delighted with that performance from Many Clouds. Puts him right in the mix for Cheltenham. Quite happy with my 40/1 voucher too :P

sintonian 24 Jan 15 14:09 Joined: 21 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 25,658 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
Christ alive. I state clearly why he might not win before the race, he gets beat on favourabe terms and it's me who cannot see it correctly.

Yes it is sint. You are simply saying he doesn't stay and should go for the Ryanair. We're saying he isn't good enough for this level, going for the Ryanair would result in a heavier defeat. He clearly stays, it was 3m1f on soft ground and all 3 of the horses today kept on galloping. I find it very very hard to believe anyone could say the horse doesn't stay.

Well done Ibra and alleged

you can turn the stat around the other way and say SP has only three times been out of the places in 11 attempts at 3 miles

same sire as Nacarat who won a Grade 1,Grade 2 and Grade 3 race at 3 miles plus but never ran in the Gold Cup.

Depends how you define a non stayer I suppose, pejorative term - I would n't describe Smad Place as a non stayer if the definition of a stayer is a horse that's effective at 3 miles plus but I don't think he'll be winning the Gold Cup after today either. Many Clouds might...

You are simply saying he doesn't stay and should go for the Ryanair. We're saying he isn't good enough for this level, going for the Ryanair would result in a heavier defeat. He clearly stays, it was 3m1f on soft ground and all 3 of the horses today kept on galloping. I find it very very hard to believe anyone could say the horse doesn't stay.



Not much more to add to be honest,except I do think he will be better in March and i still hope hes a live outsider for the Gold Cup,but it does look like hes just below whats required.

You can't say Smad isnt good enough with his record. Is TGB not good enough with 3 Gold Cup placings. Might not be the best but good enough to compete and worth their place.

My view was that the horse wouldn't stay and I stick to that view. Neither he nor Dynaste stay that distance well enough to win at that level in my view and that level is a notch below gold cup standard. Many Clouds was saving a bit for himself today but never looked like being overhauled despite the fact that they went no pace for most of the race. An extra furlong run at a searching gallop? Not for me with either Smad or Dynaste. I don't know if it is worth seeing if a strongly run Ryanair would suit. He may just be a horse who falls between two stools distance wise. It may also be the case that at the highest level he often spends too long in the air at his fences or he just isn't that good a horse compared to the best.

As for TGB his one true asset is his ability to stay on in a race like The Gold Cup. Todays race was far too slowly run to bring his stamina into play.

I said earlier in this that I think Smad is a "nearly" horse, and this only makes me think of it more.

Without doubt he stays the trip, but at the highest level, I'm just not sure if he is quite good enough.  Reaseheath's Nacarat comparison is an excellent one.

To me, he's a bit like Overturn.  He is a very good animal, tries his heart out, runs with credit, but, he has a habit of always running into one that just a little bit better on the day.

Not tearing up my AP voucher for the Gold Cup, but I fail to see how he could turn the form round with Many Clouds after that.

Smad has place claims definitely though.

He's not for me but I think if you're a backer you still have some hope as he does seem to run his best races in the spring and a stronger pace might well help him.

Yeh, all not lost yet with SP.

Hes more improvement according to King and agree with Tom,think a Gold Cup will bring the best out of him to be honest.
Of course that may not be good enough anyway,but then I thought that about the 1st 3 home last year!!

Without a standout Kauto, Denman type,this race is up for grabs big time,if a horse relishes conditions on the day....ie jumps well,enjoys the ground and stays well,hes got a fair chance(bit like stating the obvious).....imo theres quiet a few that could do that, some at big prices as well.
Smad Place is one.

I think Smad Place's day was yesterday and if his jumping had been slicker - couple of sloppy errors - he would almost certainly have won. Hard to see how he can beat the winner in the GC on 8lbs worse terms. Really impressed by Many Clouds - he was easy enough to back but seems to have matured - I always thought he was a bit soft. Jumped super and showed some real tenacity.

Strictly you are correct FF, but his trainer thinks he can get him better come March,so that might make the difference with Many Clouds,its possible. Also will be a totally different race imo.

Many Clouds is a big player though if he repeats that and he looks to be still improving as well.

Shaping up to be a real competitive Gold Cup, many with chances.

I think Smad Place's day was yesterday and if his jumping had been slicker - couple of sloppy errors - he would almost certainly have won

cant see that at all.

It was his Gold Cup yesterday. He is a non-stayer for all the time he is running in the top races. Any horse can stay any trip if the grade is right, but for as long as SP is racing at the top level he's a non-stayer.

festivalfanatic • January 25, 2015 8:47 AM GMT
I think Smad Place's day was yesterday and if his jumping had been slicker - couple of sloppy errors - he would almost certainly have won. Hard to see how he can beat the winner in the GC on 8lbs worse terms. Really impressed by Many Clouds - he was easy enough to back but seems to have matured - I always thought he was a bit soft. Jumped super and showed some real tenacity.

^^^ can't have that either.

Nor me, especaiily with his trainer saying he can get him better.
Unless hes fibbing,his comments suggest he weren't primed yesterday.
Im trusting Mr King, hes ok I find. I expect him to be at his best come March,then we will know for sure what level he is imo.

I'm still with sint. One Man won a Hennessy pulling a train and was great round Kempton at 3 miles but couldn't stay anywhere near a Gold Cup. Some horses come into their own over the longer trip, very strong pace and hill three times. I don't think Smad will be one of them. He'll cry enough when he sees that hill for the last time in my view.

Many Clouds is a much less experienced horse and thus still open to more improvement in my view was definitely keeping some for himself yesterday. I can't see how Smad can even turn the tables on him and we can't be quite sure that Many Clouds is yet good enough.

Some horses come into their own over the longer trip, very strong pace and hill three times. I don't think Smad will be one of them.

Fair enough,and you could be right.
Im hoping the opposite and listening to the trainer gives me hope.

Although listening to trainers aint always the way to go I must admit!!

Anyway,looks like he is going Gold Cup,so we will find out for sure.

I' m warming to Many Clouds can see him placing in the big one.

But don';t ask me who wins, I have to be honest, most clueless I have ever been about a big race.

I know what you mean Howdi, I had a look at the Gold Cup market yesterday, Couldn't rule out 10 of them. Very open race.

If a rogue like Boston Bob has a chance then you know it's wide open.

The ONLY thing Smad Place does is stay. He's been placed in the world hurdle and numerous other proper stamina tests, invariably being outpaced then plodding on relentlessly when most have got tired. I agree that the Gold Cup will bring out the best of him, but he doesn't look quite good enough really. Thought he jumped well on Saturday. Was quite fresh early on and wasted a bit of energy. Stronger pace and better ground would both help imo, but he has to improve an awful lot to win.

Like Many Clouds a lot - but he does look like a mudlark to me.

Same place will plod on and finish around 8th or ninth,my idea of the winner would be Holywell or Lord windermere