Cheltenham Festival
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Who do think he will curse this time? Money for Carlingford Lough today at big prices,imo he will go for Lord Windermere.
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I was expecting it to be Carlingford Lough. Looks like the bookies were too. Maybe Smad Place at 33/1 if you took the view he may have needed the run in the Hennessy. Boston Bob? Can't have him myself, but seem to remember Segal saying he rated the horse in a pricewise column, maybe for the Lexus.
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wonder how many diff horses get cut tomorrow by 8pm with our bookie friends trying to second guess the tip. shutfrontdoor is my early guess at 20/1.
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I'll guess SAM WINNER, likes a big price does our Tom.
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Carlingford Lough has been tpped by Gary o Brien on at the races site hence that being cut in the betting.Look at something you think wont run in the race that is what Sir Tom is likely to tip, His AP record for even getting runners is poor at best.
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He won't go for the top 2, but this race is easy for him as you can make a case for practically any other runner in the entries and they're all at prices. All depends how he wants to spin it.
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Given his love affair with Jonjo, I think he might go for Holywell, and possibly at a bigger price Fingal Bay.
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It really is disgusting how the books tighten up a few the day before his column.
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Taquin De Seuil
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shockster 12 Jan 15 10:19 Joined: 26 Oct 05 | Topic/replies: 1,482 | Blogger: shockster's blog
He won't go for the top 2, but this race is easy for him as you can make a case for practically any other runner in the entries and they're all at prices. All depends how he wants to spin it. Was about to say the exact same thing. Because so may are double figure prices, you could make a case for about 10 of them. |
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He's lost his mind. Holywell at 14/1 he picked!!
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Good grief!!
Worse priced horse gonna get even worse!!!! |
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16's available with Lards atm, any takers?
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Though he also tips Carlingford Lough at 25/1 which is my pick. So he still has some sanity.
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Some going 10's !!
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Glad I took 33/1 about Carlingford. Cannot believe Holywell
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if i were a bookie i wouldnt wanna be laying him above 12/1
he does the same thing every year. bad ground, ridden 'badly' until cheltenham when everything suddenly works, given a good ride and travels well. i think he'll place in the gold cup, i think he has a bit of class |
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I'd rather be on two time festival winner Holywell than Carlingford (I can't jump round Prestbury Park) Lough.......
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Wondered why Carlingford had shortened,i did manage to get fair prices on here after the Lexus,so quiet glad about that.Just hope he runs better than he did in the RSA last year.
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Id rather be on a horse that looks like winning a race this season.
Probably about 10 at far bigger odds than Holywell I would rather be on. Each to their own though |
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It's a fix obviously. Half the field gets shortened because a bookie funded racing paper put up two horses. Not fair on folk adding bits and bobs. Bought rp once, and it was utter dross. For the festival aswell. Equine yellow pages.
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budd just look at what holywell does every season prior to the festival...couldnt win off 119 before winning off 140 at the festival. last year, couldnt win a chase in 3 starts including unseating. mccoy wins two by short distances then he wins off 145 at the fesitval easily, and follows up.
as long as he runs a good encouraging race in feb he'll be bang on for the gold cup. |
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Best to get the big races sorted by now if playing Ante Post,i usually manage to do that.
Pricewise.............pain in the ****!! |
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Couldnt back the Holywell with borrowed not interested how much he comes on for the run
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I know what Holywell has done previously, and I don't really care to be honest.
Ive seen him jump this season out of novice company,thats enough for me to ignore the prices he has been. If a miracle occurs so be it. |
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Does anyone know the full details, i.e price taken, and points staked?
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fair enough!
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CL 1pt at 20/1 NRNB
HW 1pt at 14/1 NRNB |
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Thanks mac
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Thing is as far as I know,and I may be wrong,but I believe hes hovered around 14/1 most of the season??
Despite 2 bad jumping performances,hes now 10's in places!! To back a horse that's jumped like that, and one that has to prove himself at this level I would want a lot more than those sort of prices. Is he priced on what hes done in past festivals after being rubbish earlier in those seasons?? |
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Suppose some horses just come good at the Festival. Albertas Run was hardly much good elsewhere before Spring.
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exactly ^ jonjo is a master at getting them ready for that one day
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Albertas had some good races at places like Ascot,but unfortunately he was entered in the King George a couple of times and he weren't a true stayer.
He also was proved at the top level at his distance. |
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Im not disputing his trainers ability to get one there on the day.
But imo that's not enough to justify his price hes been this season,nor is his form for a Gold Cup imo. |
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Budd you're right about the price angle. Looking at price movements for Holywell he was 14/1 around Mid November, since then he has ON FORM gon backwards and is now shortening due to Pricewise, having said that Ladbrokes have stuck their neck out and gone 16/1 and obviously want to get him.
I get the previous festival angle too but I suppose if you believe that then there is little point backing him Ante Post as he is likely to be bigger having failed before the event!!!!! If that makes sense. |
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Taking a bit risk by largely relying on a trainers reputation though.
I'd rather back one with form in the book rather than the hope that a trainer can bring a heap of improvement for one day. Not saying he won't but its a big leap of faith imo |
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* big risk
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Holywell is just out of his novice chase season don't forget (after which he was awarded a rating of 163). He's now embarking on his first full season in open company, I'd judge him on his ability to compete at the highest level at the end of this season, only reasonable.
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I think he's a terrible price and I don't believe in the rating he was given for winning the Grade 1 at Aintree. No RSA winner has run well in that race and Don Cossack was thumped further by Carlingford Lough than he was by Holywell. He does relish Cheltenham but his 2 wins came in handicaps while Lord Windermere won two grade 1's. I know who I'd prefer to back between those two.
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Agree CV, don't fancy Lord Windermere but would take him in a match bet.
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