Ryanair Chase

ReaseHeath 15 Feb 15 16:31 Joined: 15 May 04 | Topic/replies: 11,638 | Blogger: ReaseHeath's blog
if Djakadam in the Hennessy, Champagne Fever in the King George and Ballycasey yesterday (just three examples of the top of my head) are all unfancied sighters then why are they invariably well found by the market and why does Ruby keep coming over to ride them?

He could've stayed at home and won on Champaqgne Fever yesterday.

Or are they only called 'sighters' after they're beaten out of sight.

Insufferable arrogance to call them sighters imo - does that mean they're not really bothered about winning? I think it's simple. He has an embarrassment of riches, there are n't enough races in Ireland for all of them so he sends some over here. Some win (mostly over hurdles), some don't (mostly over fences).



Spot on. Anyone who believes they are sending over second string horses is deluded. It was only 2 seasons ago they were talking about a satelite yard in England where Patrick would manage it. It is simple, there are not enough races in Ireland for all the horses he has UNLESS they run against each other. He has no choice to split them up.

Seriously, do you think owners would be prepared to pay for the travels costs everytime just because WPM wants a sighter?!

First Lt not travelling to Cheltenham,heading for Grand National re trainer.

Cheers Stevo.  Just cancelled my unmatched £2 at 300

Lol put it on Hendersons grey mare.

I know who you mean, Stevo - that cashpoint in the Triumph!

stevo1 16 Feb 15 11:54 Joined: 21 Oct 06 | Topic/replies: 2,856 | Blogger: stevo1's blog
Lol put it on Hendersons grey mare.

Am i missing something

I think Stevo was referring to Ma Filliule - I was just pulling his leg by referring to our fancy in the triumph - the mighty Hargam!

Ah yes i was just scrolling through the entries just then looking for mares trained by Hendo in the triumph and there wasnt none and just thought has he got the sex of Hargam wrong

On a more interesting note - I see that Paddy has cut Boston Bob from 25's to 14's for the Ryanair

Reading Racing Post article on the "shark", I got the impression that Hidden Cyclone might end up in Ryanair where he would have a decent chance imo.

Saw that Delsie re Boston Bob, PP have certainly been worth looking at re Mullins movers in market.
It gives Ruby a mount in Ryanair,if Fever goes Champion Chase,which I don't think it should.
But will be happy re my bet in Ryanair,if Fever goes 2 miles.

Pricewise tomorrow on Ryanair,hope he doesn't select Ma Filleule best price 12/1 still badblokes.
Could be Johns Spirit good course form,but not on new course.

I think it might be Boston, Stevo - the blue is spreading

Although it would be unusual for him to select one where the target is still not confirmed - perhaps the movement is stable money?

Boston Bob. Am I missing something. Ran In this last year and got beat by Hunt Ball, amongst others. One year older, 10 now, and a dreadful Cheltenham chasing pedigree. This horse appears to have some sort of romantic blind following that his form, certainly at Cheltenham, does not support. So. Tell me. Am I missing something.

does anybody think pricewise may put up ballynagour E/W ? hacked up at the festival last year albeit in handicap company?

No a bad shout blackngold, and it's the type of price he likes, but I was thinking he might put up Taquin De Seuil at 16's with Ladbrokes, now that he's been taken out The Gold Cup.

Brian
     16 Feb 15 13:34
Reading Racing Post article on the "shark", I got the impression that Hidden Cyclone might end up in Ryanair where he would have a decent chance imo. 

Brian....or anyone else, I cannot find that article on the site,what was the quote??

I've been a bit concerned that little has been seen or heard of Ballynagour since the Hennessy but Segal will be privy to comments from connections before he makes his selection and if Pipe is upbeat I agree he could be the tip.

As delsie stated earlier post, someone backing Boston Bob for this 6th in last years race.
Needs 4 miles imo and blinkers/hood.

Rease,

I'm sure after his handicap win at the festival last season, Pipe said being fresh was key to him. So the extended break shouldn't be a concern.

buddeliea

"Reading Racing Post article on the "shark", I got the impression that Hidden Cyclone might end up in Ryanair where he would have a decent chance imo.

Brian....or anyone else, I cannot find that article on the site,what was the quote??"

There was two page feature and he didn't commit to which race he would run. But said he didn't quite stay in the Ryanair last year but is stronger this year. My thought after reading article was, not surprisingly, that it would depend on competition and ground.

Thanks Brian,very useful.

I really think hes a big runner at this festival,ive got him for the QM,so I need to cover for the Ryanair just in case.

All the blue for Boston bob on odd-checker..couldn't be having him at all let me down far to many times lol.. hopefully ballynagour shows up as ive nice odds and it ll be nice to see him stepped into top class company..lack of news little concerning

I'm going back a bit, but Pipe said (I think on his blog) that Ballynagour would get an entry in this and also the Byrne Plate but would go straight to Cheltenham as he did last year. 1 early season run and then the Festival.  No Dynaste now, so Ballynagour is his only entry in the race.  His win last year was outstanding and a very easy festival winner.

Hope Boston Bob runs here as I have him NRNB for the Gold Cup and would be happy with money back.

Hanlon has also said Hidden Cyclone's best trip is about 2m 2f and consequently was preferring the shorter race

Do we know the Pricewise horse?

Johns Spirit 10/1, Ballynagour 33/1

Thank you shockster, I take it 1pt win for each.

No idea, they were posted on Twitter.

Haha, cheers anyway

Glad he hasnt cursed my bet lol.

I was hoping to wait until NRNB before backing Ballynagour, but Segal has ruined that for me. Does anyone know who the 33/1 is with?

Racebets are still 33's AC

Looks like Menorah next one to be missing Festival,re bettimg on here.

Hobbs has said will run Wishful Thinking here and wait for Aintree with Menorah.

Taquin priced like something is up. If my book gets any worse my fecking keyboard will pick up an injury.

Graeme83
Date Joined:    21 Sep 07
Add contact | Send message
17 Feb 15 14:06 Joined: 21 Sep 07 | Topic/replies: 8,630 | Blogger: Graeme83's blog

Taquin priced like something is up. If my book gets any worse my fecking keyboard will pick up an injury.

Sorry Graeme83 I do realize that its a sore point and you have a bad book but to also be able to make light of it and make a remark like that you just brightened up my afternoon!

It's alright mate.  We all know the risks of long term punting.  Just got to get on with it, and try again !

With Mullins actually opening his mouth and declaring the QMCC as Champagne Fever's likely target, I've had to look at this race with fresh eyes again.

I have been leaning towards Cue Card for the last few days, and looking at the excellent Gaulstats site, I think he'll be my selection.  I'd be surprised if he wasn't in the top three.

I've always thought this is a stayers race, which is what puts me off Balder Succes, as the 2.5m+ chasers have a much better record than the 2m-2.5m.  For example, the likes of Dynaste, Cue Card, Albertas, Riverside, Imperial Commander have all had cracks at 3m and were a lot more stamina laden.

The other thing that puts me off Balder is that course form appears to be so important in this race.  Only Riverside Theatre won who didn't have any course chase form, so coupled with Balders pretty poor Cheltenham record, and he is a speed 2.5 miler, I'd have to look elsewhere.

Back to Cue Card, his course chase form is rock solid.  He hasn't looked the same horse this year, and definitely not the same horse who won this a few years ago, but the three who finished in front of him in the King George, who may have been heading for this originally, won't be there now (Dynaste, Al Ferof and Fever).

Since this has been a Grade 1, the winners have been rock solid Grade 1 horses (although Imperial Commander wasn't when he won it, but I doubt there's another one like him lurking down the field this year).  Being beaten in the King George isn't really a negative either as the likes of Dynaste, Albertas, Riverside and Imperial were beaten in the King George and went on to win this.

The more I look at the trends, it makes me even more gutted that Champagne Fever won't run, but in his absence it has to be Cue Card for me.

Increasingly little depth to this

I like your post, wellchief but for me CC is a leap of faith.

In the absence of CF and putting price to one side, does Don Cossack not tick your boxes?

Yeah mate, taking a pretty big leap of faith to be honest.  On this season's form I think Don Cossack and Balder Succes deserve to be ahead of him in the market.

I just think the drop back down in trip will really suit him, and he'll be able to bowl along, which imo is when he is at his best; rather than being tentatively ridden to try and get 3m.

He definitely doesn't have the legs he used to, and is rated 10lbs lower than last year, but as you say, so little depth in this race, I'd be gutted if he couldn't get in the top three.

I do like Don Cossack, but my worry is the tiny fields that he's been running in.  There may only be about 10 in the eventual Ryanair lineup, but the Don has been winning 3 and 4 runner races.  He also doesn't have the course form that Cue Card does, but he may have the legs on him.

It's tight between those two for me.  The other one I've gone for is Wonderful Charm at an average of 112 on here.  Now that is mother of leap of faiths but on his day I think he is a very good horse, but not counting my cash just yet

Fair does. If it was a handicap Id be all over him like a cheap suit. Would be a 'nice' result if he blobbed in for sure.
If we were in the G2 days Id be all over Johns Spirit for this and it could yet be a G2 in all but name.
I've been looking at the mare but Im slightly less confident after Saturday.

Feck knows but if you're having Cue Card I will investigate Module.

Mare will come on for run from Saturday hopefully.
Better ground will suit definite player imo,in race with not too much depth anymore.

Johns Spirit gets my vote @ 10/1, will probably go off even higher. Despite finishing 6th just behind cue card in the KG it was a good performance, I don't see any horse above him in the betting (other than DC and Cue Card) that has better cheltenham form (JS has won 3 times at Cheltenham) or ability. Cue Card hasn't been firing and was disappointing at Kempton and Haydock. Jonjo is coming back to form and is likely to have at least 1 or 2 winners if history over the last 6 years repeats itself. With more of that a doubt, taquin jumping terribly with potential blood problems and holywell in a very very competitive GC, I think JS represents one of his strongest chances. 10/1 + on Johns Spirit vs 5/1 with Cue Card. All over JS.

I like her a lot stevo. Defo the right trip.
Bit worried about the Holywell benchmark at this stage and after. Saturday I think she needs to find a tad more for the race and better ground as you say. However she travels so well, has the right man on board and must be on the premises in any event.

I love Cue Card - does n't everyone? - but don't like his price, especially whn you think he went off at 7/2 when he won this and was coming off a 6 length win in the Ascot chase.

I like the mare too but I'm starting to get a deja vu from last year when I was suckered into backing Wishfull Thinking in the Champion Chase - he actually ran quite well but it was the wrong trip.

WT's form this season very respectable - ran into Alf on fire at Ascot, King George effort easily excused given it came plenty quick enough on top of his Peterborough Chase win and 3m probably two far anyway.Won his other two really well - his course form is a bit hit and miss but 2 of his 3 Cheltenham chase wins have been over CD on the New Course. He's had a nice break, he's too old allegedly but other than his age, no real reason why Eduard should turn around Huntingdon form. He's also a stated intended runner.

The thing stopping me pulling the trigger is I've visions of him running a blinder but finding one or two improving past him.

If Cue Card comes back to form it should win this comfortably. The line up is pretty modest to say the least. The horse has always run well at the course except one blip when it hit the deck as a novice. Also, it is not that long ago that it was the only horse around capable of giving Sprinter any sort of a race. The Tizzard horses are occasionally throwing in career bests...ie Third Intention, which many had written off, coming good at Kempton. Current price of around 6s seems OK to me.

Cue Card has never 'hit the deck' and certainly not at Cheltenham

unseated Joe Tizzard on second start at Newbury, didn't hit the fence either rather he skewed in mid air and Joe went out the side door

I think Eduard is a brilliant bet at the current prices.

Nearly beat Many Clouds first time giving him 6lb with Holywell stuffed in behind, and would have won the Peterborough if he hadn't made a horlicks of the last. Still young and lacking experience, those scraps will do him the world of good and I'd be very surprised if he doesn't improve past WT.

He has plenty of pace (watch him beat Valdez by 20l at Ayr last season - after Valdez was 6l and less behind Champagne Fever and Dodging Bullets in the Arkle), but he also stays well, so the 2m5f at Cheltenham will be absolutely perfect. Even better, he has the race as a confirmed target.

His only visit to Cheltenham came as a four--year-old hurdler, when he narrowly failed to give weight and a beating to two very smart older novices. That to me suggests the track will suit well too.

All in all a shedload of reasons to be backing him at 20-1 + in a race in which the favourite is solid but unspectacular and the second-favourite looks a shadow of his former self. Balder Succes is smart but wouldn't be one to lump on in a hurly-burly Festival race, and Johns Spirit's best form is on the Old Course and at a lower level…

You make a good form case for Eduard,but would worry re trainer
hardly prolific down south over the years? Never had festival
winner though not many runners.
You forgot to mention winner also, but good luck with bet.

I really fancy Eduard for this but am waiting for a clue this is the target. Where did you you discover this is the confirmed target ?

The last ten posts show just how wide open this race is, with about 6 or 7 different horses nominated...interesting none of them are for Don Cossack.

I wouldnt give Eduard both barrels chaps.

I understand prep has been interrupted this year and though he's a runner all being well, he's a social one as things stand

Is that fact or opinion as its a very bold statement, one that I would only make if I had solid inside information. It's certainly not anything trainer has hinted at in any of the interviews I have heard and in the past he has needed very little excuse to skip festival with his nice horses (of course I wouldn't expect him to say it's a social runner but he hasn't even said anything like he has a small ew chance or he has a lot to find or any other euphemism for social runner)

Cue Card is a much better animal going left handed and has great record at chelt

Eduard was my first bet in this back in November at 25s, I had all but written him off as not seen since the Peterborough. I would have expected Aintree to be his main target TBH as Richards traditionally targets there and Ayr above Cheltenham.

fair does milton.

I was advised 2nd hand early Feb that the horse is well the Ryanair is the plan but this was also due to prep in mid Feb which didn't happen.
(I dont know the race. I had guessed the Ascot chase on Saturday there)

I don't know why he didn't make it, but as you say the trainer is in my experience very open about these things if there was a problem with the horse. I am led to believe (and can reasonably assume from their profile) that the owners are very keen to any runner at the festival and I don't think they have anything else.

I should add that it was the plan to run in the Ryanair at the festival rather than it being his main 'target'. Thats not to say it is or isn't his target but I agree with rath and imo, that Aintree (or Ayr) looks more plausible given his lack of a run, and stepping up into G1 for a northern trainer & owners. He won twice at Ayr last season, as we know.

That makes sense but as miltons says Nicky doesn't need an excuse to skip Cheltenham and I took his recent comments very positively. I suppose he's got a bit on his plate after a break but he has run well fresh and at 20-1 + you don't need to have much on to have him on side. I do quite fancy him.

I don't think that the horse is missing Cheltenham either, tom. Its just that as you say he has a lot more on his plate not that he missed a couple of engagements. He has a good record fresh but I would think as an improving chaser whatever he does in the Ryanair he will improve for later festivals.

I'll be backing him to small stakes as I like the horse a lot and it doesnt look an exceptional G1. Had he run ok in the KG and at Ascot (if that that was the plan) then I'd be much keener.

*now that he missed

Thanks guys appreciate the candour. I think this is a smashing horse. Wt jumped like a stag that day and we all know how good he is when he jumps like that and eduard still had every chance at last. I think sky's the limit with this horse with luck and a prevailing wind. It may not be chelt ( though I hope it is) but I just hope he gets to fulfil his potential starting soon

Re. Eduard, I read or heard somewhere (might've been Tom O'Ryan on RUK)as opposed to word of mouth) that Richards could n't get him ready in time for Ascot Chase due to being held up by the weather.

Admittedly, I'm a couple of counties further south than them but winter in Cheshire has n't been too bad at all.

Anyway, 11 of 35 Ryanair entries not run yet this year, althought Rajdhani Express in action tomorrow.

judorick 19 Feb 15 17:27 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 25,631 | Blogger: judorick's blog
Cue Card has never 'hit the deck' and certainly not at Cheltenham

unseated Joe Tizzard on second start at Newbury, didn't hit the fence either rather he skewed in mid air and Joe went out the side door

It was at Chelters, Judo, and was a genuine mistake although the horse didn't fall, race won by Grands Crus iirc. Newbury was the second to Bobsworth.

I'd love CC to come back and win this, but he just doesn't seem the same horse this year. If in his prime he would gobble this lot up though and so no doubt I'll have to have a few quid on, just in case. My only other fancy at the prices would have to be Ballynagour.

Good look through and I can see Wishful Thinking running a huge race at 25/1. Seems to like Cheltenham and I have been really impressed with a few of he's runs this season, normally a 2miler but the step up to 2.5m seems to to have been the making of him, if he's there or there abouts near the end he will finsh like a choo choo train.

Desmond,
Thank you for correcting Judo re Cue Card's unseat at Cheltenham back in its Novice days. Poor Joe was slaughtered that day at Newbury for not winning on Cue Card. Time told that he was trying to give a future Gold Cup winner seven pounds. Yes, jockey may have hesitated going into the last. He certainly did not screw through the air and unseat!!
Judo...you are usually spot on. Is memory starting to play tricks??

Ma Filleule happy with my 12s,been good money for her last few weeks.
Goes there with cracking chance in open race.

Johns Spirit no money on win and place lay side.

Rumour that he would go QM - beats the hell out of me, but TDS is their Ryanair horse, I guess. Pricewise been stitched up by Jonjo! Keep expecting Boston Bob to be switched to this - but still no news.

Cant believe that,but who knows with Jonjo. If so another danger out the way.

Apparently owner wants him to run in QM as his record is better on the old course.

Thats correct Jasey re old course, but 2 miles ffs.

Cue Card gone now, maybe change of heart re Johns Spirit,
race cutting up badly which is good for the mare.

foxrock going to be supplemented for the Ryanair.

Bit of surprise,didnt see that coming tbh. Looks like more of a stayer to me,ran in 4 miler last season.

If Foxrock wins are ante post bets placed with it not in the field losers ?  Is there a rule on it ?

Losers, yes. But he won't so don't worry.

Alot more going for him than plenty in the field.... but ideally I think he would need cut in the ground at this trip

It also only costs £15k to supplement for the Ryanair whereas it is about £70k for the GC (I think)

Boston Bob maybe heading here as well,Wylie must be soft as -hit if they allow that to happen.
Not good enough last season in this,and wont be this.
Maybe something to do with Ruby having ride again?

Wylie is just like a puppet. His horses have been campaigned poorly since they went to Mullins but he can't see the wood for the trees sadly. He should get them in a yard that runs them in the suitable races not for trainer or jockey whims. It's his own fault obviously but I think he wants the glory of being at Mullins even if it is to the detriment of his horses who in my opinion are not realising their true potential at present.

Double Ross. OK, bear with me. Form this season hasn't been great but has largely been tried over 3 miles this year and on soft. His best run over 3m this season was in the Charlie Hall when he was 4L 3rd to Menorah, and that was on good. He's at his best at about this distance, and is a different animal here and with decent ground. Festival form is 8th in a Neptune, 3rd in a Martin Pipe then 2L 3rd to Taquin de Seuil in the Jewson last year. I don't think he's shown enough class to say he can win a Ryanair but wouldn't be the most surprising thing ever to see him place and he's 50/1 NRNB with Lads.

I've bet him as well marychain, and took 110's to 180's. I'd agree he's been pretty average this year, but if he turns up, I'd be as conifdent as I can be about a 50-1 shot running a decent race. Agree with you again, probably not good enough to win, but I'd love a run for my money. The main thing that worries me, is that he's not priced up with a couple of firms on Oddschecker.....that always worries me.

If his season finishes the way it's started, he might be one to keep in mind for The Paddy Power.

If RPR means anything and in a championship race with exposed horses it certainly should, the order should be:

Ma Filleule 175
Wishfull Thinking 174 (still 25/1)
Baldur Succes 173
Don Cossack 173
Foxrock 172 (so not a hopeless task)
Edouard 170
Wonderful Charm 170.
Boston Bob 169
John's Spirit 169

It would be a major shock if none of those win and the market in no way reflects the odds suggested by the above.

It should be something like 9/2 Ma F. 11/2/ Wishfull and Don Cossack (younger so can improve) 7/1 Balder, 9/1 Foxrock, 14/1 bar.

TTT

Hoping the mare wins this on 12s e/w,about time trainer had change of fortune.

Mar 12, 2015 -- 5:34AM, stevo1 wrote:

Hoping the mare wins this on 12s e/w,about time trainer had change of fortune.

You reap what you sow. He's been wrapping everyone in cotton wool all year. Says he wants 10 more days for BW ffs. He's had all year to prep for this!!1 lol

^^^ agree

I'm on Balder Succes and Wishfull Thinking but can't believe that the latter is still drifting. Has anyone heard any negatives about a course winner withe best handicap mark?

Had backed Uxizandre 16s for QMCC no bet on him today fecking typical! Great week, one thing that i am likely to remember though is that!!

Thought Cooper gave Don Cossack no chance with an impatient ride. DC made good ground up the hill but by then it was far too late.

Don Cossack not good enough end of, made couple of jumping errors,which didn't help.
Not sure how winner led all the way though? Couldn't back it on last 2 runs no chance lol.

I thought it was astonishing that DC got as close as he did given the trouble he had on the way round. I actually thought he got interfered with at one with about 5 to go that jolted him and stopped his momentum. I've only seen it once though, so will need to look again.

Think it was a mistake mary, rather tag being hampered. Was then almost brought down two out when Copper, perhaps unwisely, tried to go for a gap and got badly squeezed out. Thought he did really well to recover from that and run on so well. Just a race where the cards didn't fall for him.

Aintree bowl will be interesting.