Sorry Graeme83 I do realize that its a sore point and you have a bad book but to also be able to make light of it and make a remark like that you just brightened up my afternoon!

With Mullins actually opening his mouth and declaring the QMCC as Champagne Fever's likely target, I've had to look at this race with fresh eyes again.

I have been leaning towards Cue Card for the last few days, and looking at the excellent Gaulstats site, I think he'll be my selection.  I'd be surprised if he wasn't in the top three.

I've always thought this is a stayers race, which is what puts me off Balder Succes, as the 2.5m+ chasers have a much better record than the 2m-2.5m.  For example, the likes of Dynaste, Cue Card, Albertas, Riverside, Imperial Commander have all had cracks at 3m and were a lot more stamina laden.

The other thing that puts me off Balder is that course form appears to be so important in this race.  Only Riverside Theatre won who didn't have any course chase form, so coupled with Balders pretty poor Cheltenham record, and he is a speed 2.5 miler, I'd have to look elsewhere.

Back to Cue Card, his course chase form is rock solid.  He hasn't looked the same horse this year, and definitely not the same horse who won this a few years ago, but the three who finished in front of him in the King George, who may have been heading for this originally, won't be there now (Dynaste, Al Ferof and Fever).

Since this has been a Grade 1, the winners have been rock solid Grade 1 horses (although Imperial Commander wasn't when he won it, but I doubt there's another one like him lurking down the field this year).  Being beaten in the King George isn't really a negative either as the likes of Dynaste, Albertas, Riverside and Imperial were beaten in the King George and went on to win this.

The more I look at the trends, it makes me even more gutted that Champagne Fever won't run, but in his absence it has to be Cue Card for me.

I like your post, wellchief but for me CC is a leap of faith.

In the absence of CF and putting price to one side, does Don Cossack not tick your boxes?

Fair does. If it was a handicap Id be all over him like a cheap suit. Would be a 'nice' result if he blobbed in for sure.
If we were in the G2 days Id be all over Johns Spirit for this and it could yet be a G2 in all but name.
I've been looking at the mare but Im slightly less confident after Saturday.

Feck knows but if you're having Cue Card I will investigate Module.

Mare will come on for run from Saturday hopefully.
Better ground will suit definite player imo,in race with not too much depth anymore.

I like her a lot stevo. Defo the right trip.
Bit worried about the Holywell benchmark at this stage and after. Saturday I think she needs to find a tad more for the race and better ground as you say. However she travels so well, has the right man on board and must be on the premises in any event.

If Cue Card comes back to form it should win this comfortably. The line up is pretty modest to say the least. The horse has always run well at the course except one blip when it hit the deck as a novice. Also, it is not that long ago that it was the only horse around capable of giving Sprinter any sort of a race. The Tizzard horses are occasionally throwing in career bests...ie Third Intention, which many had written off, coming good at Kempton. Current price of around 6s seems OK to me.

I think Eduard is a brilliant bet at the current prices.

Nearly beat Many Clouds first time giving him 6lb with Holywell stuffed in behind, and would have won the Peterborough if he hadn't made a horlicks of the last. Still young and lacking experience, those scraps will do him the world of good and I'd be very surprised if he doesn't improve past WT.

He has plenty of pace (watch him beat Valdez by 20l at Ayr last season - after Valdez was 6l and less behind Champagne Fever and Dodging Bullets in the Arkle), but he also stays well, so the 2m5f at Cheltenham will be absolutely perfect. Even better, he has the race as a confirmed target.

His only visit to Cheltenham came as a four--year-old hurdler, when he narrowly failed to give weight and a beating to two very smart older novices. That to me suggests the track will suit well too.

All in all a shedload of reasons to be backing him at 20-1 + in a race in which the favourite is solid but unspectacular and the second-favourite looks a shadow of his former self. Balder Succes is smart but wouldn't be one to lump on in a hurly-burly Festival race, and Johns Spirit's best form is on the Old Course and at a lower level…

I really fancy Eduard for this but am waiting for a clue this is the target. Where did you you discover this is the confirmed target ?

I wouldnt give Eduard both barrels chaps.

I understand prep has been interrupted this year and though he's a runner all being well, he's a social one as things stand

Cue Card is a much better animal going left handed and has great record at chelt

fair does milton.

I was advised 2nd hand early Feb that the horse is well the Ryanair is the plan but this was also due to prep in mid Feb which didn't happen.
(I dont know the race. I had guessed the Ascot chase on Saturday there)

I don't know why he didn't make it, but as you say the trainer is in my experience very open about these things if there was a problem with the horse. I am led to believe (and can reasonably assume from their profile) that the owners are very keen to any runner at the festival and I don't think they have anything else.

That makes sense but as miltons says Nicky doesn't need an excuse to skip Cheltenham and I took his recent comments very positively. I suppose he's got a bit on his plate after a break but he has run well fresh and at 20-1 + you don't need to have much on to have him on side. I do quite fancy him.

*now that he missed

Re. Eduard, I read or heard somewhere (might've been Tom O'Ryan on RUK)as opposed to word of mouth) that Richards could n't get him ready in time for Ascot Chase due to being held up by the weather.

Admittedly, I'm a couple of counties further south than them but winter in Cheshire has n't been too bad at all.

Anyway, 11 of 35 Ryanair entries not run yet this year, althought Rajdhani Express in action tomorrow.

Good look through and I can see Wishful Thinking running a huge race at 25/1. Seems to like Cheltenham and I have been really impressed with a few of he's runs this season, normally a 2miler but the step up to 2.5m seems to to have been the making of him, if he's there or there abouts near the end he will finsh like a choo choo train.

Ma Filleule happy with my 12s,been good money for her last few weeks.
Goes there with cracking chance in open race.

Rumour that he would go QM - beats the hell out of me, but TDS is their Ryanair horse, I guess. Pricewise been stitched up by Jonjo! Keep expecting Boston Bob to be switched to this - but still no news.

Apparently owner wants him to run in QM as his record is better on the old course.

Cue Card gone now, maybe change of heart re Johns Spirit,
race cutting up badly which is good for the mare.