Rght then, time to start the donkey work in readiness for March. Setting up the new spreadsheet, clearing out the old data etc, and readying it for the 'data onslaught' from now til the Festival.
Thanks in advance to Racecaller for his invaluable trends data. Will provide soon a quick recap of how the analysis fared last year (9 winners).
I get that but imo if you're good enough you're good enough. Balthazar had never completed a x country race before he won it in 2012.
For some if gives them a new lease of life and some just don't take to it. At the price I think its worth the risk.
I get that but imo if you're good enough you're good enough. Balthazar had never completed a x country race before he won it in 2012.For some if gives them a new lease of life and some just don't take to it. At the price I think its worth the risk.
Saphir Du Rheu47 85% Lieutenant Colonel74 72% Zarkandar82 72% Reve De Sivola47 65% Dedigout25 62% Zaidpour25 61% Aubusson32 55% At Fishers Cross26 50% Rock On Ruby70 49% Cole Harden47 47% Whisper70 46% Rule The World32 40% Jetson74 38% Monksland49 38% Seeyouatmidnight26 38% Un Atout74 32% Un Temps Pour Tout47 32% Annie Power313 31% Briar Hill25 30% More Of That103 27% Pont Alexandre729 23% King Of The Picts25 23% Beat That70 21% Abbyssial26 21% Tiger Roll26 21% Blue Fashion110 18% Back In Focus25 13%
Lieutenant Colonel might even rate higher if he usurps Un Temps Pour Tout and break into the top 4 in the betting.
Updated World Hurdle ratings:Saphir Du Rheu47 85%Lieutenant Colonel74 72%Zarkandar82 72%Reve De Sivola47 65%Dedigout25 62%Zaidpour25 61%Aubusson32 55%At Fishers Cross26 50%Rock On Ruby70 49%Cole Harden47 47%Whisper70
Timtin, Arctic Fire's two stats that beat Faugheen's, are "ran in calendar year" and "ran between 10 and 25 times over hurdles".
I wouldn't say the stats are unreliable, they are just an expression of trends., not tips directly.
I would use them to augment your own picks, therefore if you fancied Arctic Fire Each-Way for instance, then the stats wouldn't put you off him.
My own fancy has been Faugheen for a long, long time, I hope he is the real deal and romps home. I wont back against him in this race whatever the stats.
I will use the stats in other races, particularly to support a fancy I already have in a race.
@deepingfox only a great horse can overcome stats and I'll be happy if Fly wins as well as that'll put an end to his class relative to the his generation(5-10 years). I do wonder why are your stats showing Arctic Fire ahead of Faugheen ? It seems unreliable..
Timtin, Arctic Fire's two stats that beat Faugheen's, are "ran in calendar year" and "ran between 10 and 25 times over hurdles".I wouldn't say the stats are unreliable, they are just an expression of trends., not tips directly.I would use them to aug
are you using Proform software(I used to have a license many years ago..) for your stats ? if so is can you try to find out how many 3 mile winners over hurdles have won/placed in the CH after they've won that 3m hurdle event?
are you using Proform software(I used to have a license many years ago..) for your stats ? if so is can you try to find out how many 3 mile winners over hurdles have won/placed in the CH after they've won that 3m hurdle event?
No software, just hard slog on manual inputs, like JOCI.
I would imagine both of us know that most Champion Hurdle contenders wouldn't have ever tried 3M over hurdles. It wouldn't be a trend stat anyone would use, because of that.
Faugheen wont be doing a "Sea Pigeon", I think Ruby (hopefully) will be pushing him on entering the straight, to try to drive the finish out of the rest of them.
Win or Lose, in my betting, I prefer to watch races with no hard luck stories, and the best horse winning, its the best way to use visual form to base your future betting plans upon.
I use stats as a back up to my own visual form selections, not stats alone.
Timtin,No software, just hard slog on manual inputs, like JOCI.I would imagine both of us know that most Champion Hurdle contenders wouldn't have ever tried 3M over hurdles. It wouldn't be a trend stat anyone would use, because of that.Faugheen wont
jocci..interesting thread ..if you back min 2 horses a race and in bigger hcaps up to 4..could you not end up backing 60 plus horses in the week...what profit was there last year?
jocci..interesting thread ..if you back min 2 horses a race and in bigger hcaps up to 4..could you not end up backing 60 plus horses in the week...what profit was there last year?
jocci..interesting thread ..if you back min 2 horses a race and in bigger hcaps up to 4..could you not end up backing 60 plus horses in the week...what profit was there last year?
jocci..interesting thread ..if you back min 2 horses a race and in bigger hcaps up to 4..could you not end up backing 60 plus horses in the week...what profit was there last year?
timberman - for someone who spends a lot of time analysing the races for Cheltenham, I'm not a huge punter, and don't bet high stakes, and I don't rigidly monitor my profit / loss as a result, but the last two years have yielded a decent net profit, 2013 in particular. I also don't bet level stakes, and do a bit of each way now and then. I actually have been treating it as more of an intellectual exercise / test, to see if what I'm doing can pick winners / placed horses on a regular basis. If you can get a couple of winners up in the big handicaps, then you've made your money for the week. I've done it for two years now (my 'enhanced' trend analysis), and it's worked well, but I'm fully prepared to have a shocker at some point, and am aware that two years worth of good results is nothing in the overall scheme of things. It's a bit of fun (for me at least, maybe not for my long suffering wife), and I like sharing information etc, and hope if anyone can get a few winners, then great, and if people end up backing losers as a result, then they don't apportion too much blame to me.
timberman - for someone who spends a lot of time analysing the races for Cheltenham, I'm not a huge punter, and don't bet high stakes, and I don't rigidly monitor my profit / loss as a result, but the last two years have yielded a decent net profit,
I seem to remember you mentioning that you used the Kings Head in Cleeve for breakfast. Will you be doing that this year? If so I will pop in and say hello.
Good read again JOCI.I seem to remember you mentioning that you used the Kings Head in Cleeve for breakfast. Will you be doing that this year? If so I will pop in and say hello.
Sawyer - we always have a sumptous breakfast in the house we stay at. In the evenings we usually frequent the Royal Oak in Cleeve for meal and beers (apart from Wednesday when it's Taj Mahal curry night), and ocasionally pop into the Kings Head depending on how busy it is.
Sawyer - we always have a sumptous breakfast in the house we stay at. In the evenings we usually frequent the Royal Oak in Cleeve for meal and beers (apart from Wednesday when it's Taj Mahal curry night), and ocasionally pop into the Kings Head depen
After the latest declaration stage, here are the rankings for the Festival opener:
Nichols Canyon 90% Outlander 85% Bentelimar 85% Tell Us More 83% Qewy 82% Shaneshill 77% Velvet Maker 77% Jollyallan 74% Seedling 70% Alvisio Ville 65% Sizing John 64% Some Plan 63% Douvan 59% Aso 54% L´Ami Serge 51% McKinley 46% Okotoks 30%
Looks to be going very much against public opinion here and opposing the hot favourite / second favourite. Don't think Nicholls Canyon will run, so not entirely certain yet what the selction(s) will be. Will post updates on the other Tuesday races later.
Supreme Novices HurdleAfter the latest declaration stage, here are the rankings for the Festival opener:Nichols Canyon 90%Outlander 85%Bentelimar 85%Tell Us More 83%Qewy 82%Shaneshill 77%Velvet Maker 77%Jollyallan 74%Seedling
At the latest declaration stage, here are the trend rankings:
Vautour51 84% Un De Sceaux44 83% Vibrato Valtat31 83% Josses Hill32 71% Three Kingdoms45 69% Clarcam44 60% Top Gamble31 52% Chris Pea Green65 46% Adriana Des Mottes30 44% Melodic Rendezvous17 42% Dunraven Storm81 42% Sgt Reckless60F 39% Smashing47 37% Court Minstrel94 30% Ted Veale51 30% Cold March24 27% God´s Own73 26% Sail By The Sea39 25% Turn Over Sivola31 13%
Unlike the Supreme Novices, in the likely absence of Vautour, favourites Un De Sceaux and Vibrato Valtat should be fighting out the finish.
Arkle ChaseAt the latest declaration stage, here are the trend rankings:Vautour51 84%Un De Sceaux44 83%Vibrato Valtat31 83%Josses Hill32 71%Three Kingdoms45 69%Clarcam44 60%Top Gamble31 52%Chris Pea Green65 46%Adriana Des Mo
The trends suggest the two rivals who have been sluGging it out in Ireland, Jezki and Hurricane Fly will be dominating, with a repeat victory for the current Champion on the cards? This assumes that the 'machine' Faugheen can be beaten.
Champion HurdleJezki44 89%Hurricane Fly44 81%Faugheen74 78%Arctic Fire44 78%The New One52 76%Vaniteux68 53%Kitten Rock24 44%Bertimont52 29%The trends suggest the two rivals who have been sluGging it out in Ireland, Jezki and
The trends think Annie Power might be beatable, with Carole's Spirit, and my own current fancy Glen's Melody the ones likely to topple her. Are they right?
Carole´s Spirit52 88% Glens Melody31 82% The Pirate´s Queen80 82% Annie Power311 80% Bitofapuzzle52 80% The Govaness40 73% Analifet20 60% Jennys Surprise52 59% Emily Gray31 56% Mischievous Milly52 56% Polly Peachum106 51% Pass The Time45 48% Koolala45 46% L´Unique106 46% Little King Robin20 46% Dark Spirit52 45% Hidden Identity38 40% Swing Bowler31 40% Centasia59 37% Sureness142 30%
Mares HurdleThe trends think Annie Power might be beatable, with Carole's Spirit, and my own current fancy Glen's Melody the ones likely to topple her. Are they right?Carole´s Spirit52 88%Glens Melody31 82%The Pirate´s Queen80 82%Annie Po
Ballyculla18 88% Doing Fine31 88% Very Wood23 84% Broadway Buffalo24 79% Return Spring38 79% Royal Palladium26 79% The Job Is Right23 79% The Last Samuri26 79% Thunder And Roses23 79% Top Totti38 79% Cogry31 78% Wounded Warrior52 74% Vivaldi Collonges31 73% Sego Success59 71% Perfect Candidate45 68% The Young Master80 61% Mosspark45 56% Perfect Gentleman74 56% I Need Gold31 55% Theatre Queen10 54% Heathfield44 53% Don Poli71 50% Vroum Vroum Mag54 33% Cause Of Causes47 31%
Hmmmmm.....like Don Poli and perturbed by the fact that he scores so lowly. Both the top 2 have been beaten by Cogry, who is ranked below tham.
National Hunt ChaseLatest trends for the Festival marathon:Ballyculla18 88%Doing Fine31 88%Very Wood23 84%Broadway Buffalo24 79%Return Spring38 79%Royal Palladium26 79%The Job Is Right23 79%The Last Samuri26 79%Thunder An
Myself and Johnn will be in both pubs and curry house in Bishops Cleeve all week, we`ll be the guys with the unintelligible Ayrshire accents and satchels overflowing with cash :-)
Myself and Johnn will be in both pubs and curry house in Bishops Cleeve all week, we`ll be the guys with the unintelligible Ayrshire accents and satchels overflowing with cash :-)
Cheers JOCI I doubt I will make it into Cleeve in the evenings: have a good week and I hope you're lucky.
I called in yesterday lunchtime to see what time they opened for breakfast and "drink" - 8am.
Eastayr my intention is to get there on the Wed morning - the plan is for early breakfast but the liklehood is probably 10am. I will listen out for the Glaswegian lilt. Enjoy
Cheers JOCI I doubt I will make it into Cleeve in the evenings: have a good week and I hope you're lucky.I called in yesterday lunchtime to see what time they opened for breakfast and "drink" - 8am.Eastayr my intention is to get there on the Wed morn
A field of 28 remain for Wednesday's curtain raiser, and here are the latest trend rankings:
Vyta Du Roc72 100% Roi Des Francs29 90% Definitly Red25 81% Windsor Park31 81% Outlander45 80% No More Heroes45 72% Ordo Ab Chao46 72% Alpha Des Obeaux60 71% Beast Of Burden33 71% Black Hercules94 71% Snow Falcon46 71% Douvan60 70% Nichols Canyon31 70% Shaneshill87 70% Parlour Games72 69% Aso32 62% Bentelimar38 62% Killultagh Vic45 62% Arbre De Vie32 61% Shantou Bob60 61% Tell Us More66 60% Carningli28 52% McKinley31 52% Warrantor60 52% Anteros39 51% Seedling89 51% Marinero46 42% Max Dynamite17 31%
Neptune Novices HurdleA field of 28 remain for Wednesday's curtain raiser, and here are the latest trend rankings:Vyta Du Roc72 100%Roi Des Francs29 90%Definitly Red25 81%Windsor Park31 81%Outlander45 80%No More Heroes45 72%Or
14 runners in the latest field, and here are the latest trend rankings:
Southfield Theatre31 92% Kings Palace32 87% If In Doubt46 84%[/b] Wounded Warrior53 79% Coneygree32 78% Valseur Lido31 74% Very Wood24 74% Vautour52 71% Don Poli72 70% Adriana Des Mottes31 54% Apache Jack24 53% The Ould Lad27 50% Vroum Vroum Mag55 44% The Young Master81 41%
RSA Chase14 runners in the latest field, and here are the latest trend rankings:Southfield Theatre31 92%Kings Palace32 87%If In Doubt46 84%[/b]Wounded Warrior53 79%Coneygree32 78%Valseur Lido31 74%Very Wood24 74%Vautour52 71
Quantitativeeasing38 69% Any Currency89 67% Sire Collonges117 65% Duke Of Lucca89 56% Uncle Junior89 55% Toutancarmont38 55% Hey Big Spender25 52% Rose Of The Moon27 45% Chicago Grey108 44% Guess Again235 44% Imperial Circus89 37% Ipsos Du Berlais38 34% Dogora18 31% Charingworth31 31% Wayward Frolic32 31% Rivage D´Or101P 26% Are Ya Right Chief339 25% Scotswell18 25% Nuage D´Ainay55 20% Master Rajeem45 20% Union Jack D´Ycy62 20%
Cross Country ChaseQuantitativeeasing38 69%Any Currency89 67%Sire Collonges117 65%Duke Of Lucca89 56%Uncle Junior89 55%Toutancarmont38 55%Hey Big Spender25 52%Rose Of The Moon27 45%Chicago Grey108 44%Guess Again235
Wrong age group Not Irish bred Not run in some of the key trials e.g. Reynoldstown or Flogas Chase Not run in Albert Bartlett at previous festival
Don't let these factors put you off if you really fancy him.
Wrong age groupNot Irish bredNot run in some of the key trials e.g. Reynoldstown or Flogas ChaseNot run in Albert Bartlett at previous festivalDon't let these factors put you off if you really fancy him.
Won't be final until the Final decs are known, but most will be very close by now (though some of the top rated horses could well defect to other races e.g. Nicholls Canyon). I'll likely be backing the top couple in each race, and maybe top 4 in the big handicaps (which haven't been finished yet, as these are the last ones I finalise usually on the day).
Won't be final until the Final decs are known, but most will be very close by now (though some of the top rated horses could well defect to other races e.g. Nicholls Canyon). I'll likely be backing the top couple in each race, and maybe top 4 in the
Finished my stats for the first tow days now, and the non-handicaps on the last two days too.
Emailed over to you, to see if we have differences or common ground.
Will publish when all four days are complete over the weekend.
Some very interesting ones to research at the top of the pecking orders.
deepingfox.
JOCI,Finished my stats for the first tow days now, and the non-handicaps on the last two days too.Emailed over to you, to see if we have differences or common ground.Will publish when all four days are complete over the weekend.Some very interesting
just ike to say thanks to joci club again for this I do this for fun every year and pick my horses here came across this site might be a help to someone above my pay grade The Parade Ring http://theparadering.blogspot.ie/ try this guys ty again
just ike to say thanks to joci club again for this I do this for fun every year and pick my horses here came across this site might be a help to someone above my pay grade The Parade Ring http://theparadering.blogspot.ie/ try this guys ty again
have done the Albert Bartlett yet, even though he's unlikely to run I am very interested Killultagh Vic for whatever he turns up in and am interested in where he figures in your shake down
jocihave done the Albert Bartlett yet, even though he's unlikely to run I am very interested Killultagh Vic for whatever he turns up in and am interested in where he figures in your shake down
Missing one bit of data (whether a claiming jockey is on board) but apart from that here are the current rankings:
Masters Hill32 86% Just A Par32 86% Buddy Bolero26 83% Gevrey Chambertin85 78% Gallant Oscar49 76% Easter Day19 72% Clondaw Knight26 72% Indian Castle24 72% Lamb Or Cod90 72% Grand Vision61 71% Vintage Star54 71% Theatre Queen12 69% Gold Bullet40 67% Sixty Something31 67% Across The Bay26 67% Grandads Horse47 66% Broadway Buffalo26 64% Benbens26 64% Benbane Head61 62% Heaney53 62% Samingarry12 61% The Last Samuri28 59% Garrahalish47 59% Champagne Rian48 59% Tap Night19 58% Standing Ovation90 58% American Spin34 57% Beforeall19 57% Soudain31 57% The Nephew118 57% Lost Legend47 56% Pendra104 56% Guess Again236 56% Tenor Nivernais19 55% Glenquest11 55% Foxbridge25 54% Monbeg Dude26 54% Azure Fly28 54% Firm Order34 52% The Package96 51% Dogora19 51% Ballyoliver12 50% The Ould Lad28 49% No Secrets11 5x 49% Dare To Endeavour28 49% Ericht70 48% Saroque27 48% Cedre Bleu54 47% Champagne James18 46% Charingworth32 46% Golden Chieftain12 46% Foundation Man96 46% Handy Andy56 46% Royal Palladium28 45% Houston Dynimo134 42% Astigos11 42% As De Ferbet71 40% Bless The Wings121 38% Rivage D´Or102P 36% Lackamon24 36% Ice ´N´ Easy11 36% Shakalakaboomboom70 32%
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir ChaseMissing one bit of data (whether a claiming jockey is on board) but apart from that here are the current rankings:Masters Hill32 86%Just A Par32 86%Buddy Bolero26 83%Gevrey Chambertin85 78%Gallant Oscar49
Potentially some runners out today, but at the moment, here are the trend rankings:
Sebastian Beach12 84% Saint Lucy15 82% Superb Story21 82% Arabian Revolution34 80% Zarib25 80% Hostile Fire39 80% Gimme Five37F 76% Silver Duke20 73% Old Guard39 73% All Yours18 73% Chatham House Rule31 73% Thunder Zone25 73% Starchitect38 73% Souriyan39 73% Zafayan25 71% Norse Legend56 71% Lucky Jim17 71% Sternrubin34 71% Bidourey26 70% Russian Bolero18 69% Storm Force Ten46 69% Gwencily Berbas18 67% Bishop Wulstan12 64% Dai Bando75 60% The Wallace Line74 60% Unanimite95F 60% Prussian Eagle31 60% Full Day12 58% Top Of The Glas18 58% Ryeolliean58 58% Officer Drivel18 57% Vosne Romanee20F 57% Beatabout The Bush45 52% The Saint James39 50% Golden Doyen53 47% Bouvreuil32 47% Verawal48 47% Tarabiyn48 47% Buiseness Sivola74 47% Blue Atlantic84 47% Qualando19 46% Kabjoy75 46% Box Office43 38% Baron Alco74 38% Mr Gallivanter88 36% Cyclop25 34%
A coule of top rated not guaranteed to get a run.
Fred Winter Juvenile HurdlePotentially some runners out today, but at the moment, here are the trend rankings:Sebastian Beach12 84%Saint Lucy15 82%Superb Story21 82%Arabian Revolution34 80%Zarib25 80%Hostile Fire39 80%Gimme Fi
After the latest field of 18 runners was declared, here are the trend rankings:
Road To Riches75 84% Silviniaco Conti77 82% Holywell29 80% Carlingford Lough33 78% Many Clouds48 67% Don Cossack57 65% Sam Winner75 56% Djakadam50 55% Coneygree34 53% Lord Windermere33 51% Boston Bob33 50% Bobs Worth75 50% Houblon Des Obeaux34 44% Smad Place48 44% Home Farm33 38% On His Own33 37% River Choice20 6%
It's a little bit cludy at the moment, because the 'top 3 in the betting' are favoured from a trend perspective, and after Silviniaco Conti, there's not much between several runners, and I've assumed Road To Riches, Holywell, Many Clouds and Djakadam all get 'points' for this, but this could obviously change between now and 'the off'.
Gold CupAfter the latest field of 18 runners was declared, here are the trend rankings:Road To Riches75 84%Silviniaco Conti77 82%Holywell29 80%Carlingford Lough33 78%Many Clouds48 67%Don Cossack57 65%Sam Winner75 56%Djakadam50
Road To Riches75 84% Silviniaco Conti77 82% Holywell29 80% Carlingford Lough33 78% Many Clouds48 67% Don Cossack57 65% Sam Winner75 56% Djakadam50 55% Coneygree34 53% Lord Windermere33 51% Boston Bob33 50% Bobs Worth75 50% Houblon Des Obeaux34 44% Smad Place48 44% Home Farm33 38% On His Own33 37% The Giant Bolster48 30% River Choice20 6%
Just had a marathon stint working through the Grand Annual (which I never seem to be able to get right). The trends say the following:
Ted Veale54 92% Grumeti41 92% Byerley Babe54 79% Ballycasey27 78% Blood Cotil34 73% Karinga Dancer34 72% Turn Over Sivola34 72% Clarcam47 71% Ned Buntline76 70% Dunraven Storm84 68% Eastlake55 68% Dresden13 5x 66% Royal Regatta13 65% Festive Affair41 65% Turban31 64% Claret Cloak132 62% Astracad90 59% Gores Island43 58% Brick Red41 57% Monetaire104 57% Firth Of The Clyde41 57% Mount Colah67 55% Chris Pea Green68 55% Bold Henry62 55% Rocky Wednesday13 55% Solar Impulse48 54% Next Sensation104 54% Grey Gold20 50% Croco Bay27 50% My Brother Sylvest27 50% Vivaccio14 50% Oscar Hill27 47% Sew On Target48 46% Tanks For That27 46% French Opera41 44% Definite Dream20 42% De Faoithesdream20 42% Mister Hotelier76 41% Bellenos83 40% Kumbeshwar7 39% Dick Dundee50 33% Le Bacardy86 32% Champion Court71 29%
Grand Annual ChaseJust had a marathon stint working through the Grand Annual (which I never seem to be able to get right). The trends say the following:Ted Veale54 92%Grumeti41 92%Byerley Babe54 79%Ballycasey27 78%Blood Cotil34 73
1 Finished 1st or 2nd last time out in Grade 1 or 2 (fell so arguably this could be relaxed as we don't know where he might have finished) 2 Finished 1st or 2nd in all chases (ditto) 3 Achieved RPR of 150+ last time out (no, but might have had he not fallen) 4 Run in 3 to 11 hurdle races 5 Not Irish trained 6 Has had a shorter than desirable gap since his last race (ideally 45-55 days)
Now, if you relaxed the first three, on the assumption that had he not fallen and finished 1st or 2nd, and in doing so, achieved a 150+ RPR (not unreasonable), then he would have scored 76% and been the 5th highest rated horse.
Ptit Zig fails on the following:1 Finished 1st or 2nd last time out in Grade 1 or 2 (fell so arguably this could be relaxed as we don't know where he might have finished)2 Finished 1st or 2nd in all chases (ditto)3 Achieved RPR of 150+ last time out
Not started the Albert Bartlett yet, that will be later today hopefully.
Small matter of a 20 mile road race to overcome first this morning, then if I have an energy left, more trend analysis this afternoon.
Not started the Albert Bartlett yet, that will be later today hopefully.Small matter of a 20 mile road race to overcome first this morning, then if I have an energy left, more trend analysis this afternoon.
Here are the trend rankings. For the stat 'top 5 in the betting' as there are 7 horses quite close up in the market, I have awarded each the points for this stat (which may change closer to the race).
Caracci Apache48 95% Martello Tower47 87% Roi Des Francs31 87% Definitly Red27 84% Blaklion48 82% Fletchers Flyer27 80% No More Heroes47 79% Outlander47 79% Carningli30 77% Vyta Du Roc74 76% Arbre De Vie34 72% Beast Of Burden35 72% Fine Article31 72% Native River33 72% Snow Falcon48 72% Black Hercules96 71% Windsor Park33 71% Thomas Brown71 68% Bitofapuzzle55 67% Alpha Des Obeaux62 65% Fly Vinnie40 64% Kauto Grand Mogol31 64% Killultagh Vic47 64% Measureofmydreams31 64% On Tour34 64% Racing Europe27 64% Scorpiancer35 64% Zeroeshadesofgrey48 64% Shanroe Santos40 63% Tea For Two27 62% Nichols Canyon33 58% Shantou Bob62 57% Milsean15 55% Anteros41 55% Binge Drinker48 54% Marinero48 54% Tell Us More68 54% Value At Risk48 51% Desilvano19 48% Kylemore Lough22 48% Smooth Stepper20 48% Warrantor62 48% Out Sam55 47% Avant Tout40 46% Foryourinformation41 45% McKinley33 44% Flintham62 39% Okotoks75 39% Klepht76 29% Max Dynamite19 29%
Albert Bartlett Novices HurdleHere are the trend rankings. For the stat 'top 5 in the betting' as there are 7 horses quite close up in the market, I have awarded each the points for this stat (which may change closer to the race).Caracci Apache48
20 mile run in the Milton Keynes Festival of Running. 2 hours 47 minutes (8:23 minute mile pace, with a 7:57 thrown in there for mile 17). Horrible hill to finish, and the last mile was my only one over 9 minutes.
20 mile run in the Milton Keynes Festival of Running. 2 hours 47 minutes (8:23 minute mile pace, with a 7:57 thrown in there for mile 17). Horrible hill to finish, and the last mile was my only one over 9 minutes.
Went very well til after mile 18, then it was all uphill with a very steep one about 500 metres from the finish. Did it though, and my longest run to date. Not bad for an old geezer anyway!
Went very well til after mile 18, then it was all uphill with a very steep one about 500 metres from the finish. Did it though, and my longest run to date. Not bad for an old geezer anyway!
I like Gevrey for the handicap chase on day 1 and he tops your list, you sense that he's a funny character and probably needs it all to go his way, but you also sense that there's bundles of ability there too that his handicap mark as yet doesn't reflect.
I like Gevrey for the handicap chase on day 1 and he tops your list, you sense that he's a funny character and probably needs it all to go his way, but you also sense that there's bundles of ability there too that his handicap mark as yet doesn't ref
Ballyculla18 88% Doing Fine31 88% Very Wood23 84% Broadway Buffalo24 79% Return Spring38 79% Royal Palladium26 79% The Job Is Right23 79% Thunder And Roses23 79% Top Totti38 79% Cogry31 78% Vivaldi Collonges31 73% Sego Success59 71% Perfect Candidate45 68% Perfect Gentleman74 56% I Need Gold31 55% Theatre Queen10 54% Cause Of Causes47 31%
Chaps Restaurants Barbados Novices Handicap Chase
Horizontal Speed59 92% Killala Quay60 74% Generous Ransom45 72% Knock House74 67% Gores Island40 65% Cold March24 65% Gorsky Island83 64% Dromnea23 63% Little Jon45 63% Cocktails At Dawn59 58% Thomas Crapper32 58% Stellar Notion45 57% Irish Cavalier45 56% Golden Hoof73 55% Bold Henry59 55% Keltus101 55% Leap Dearg65 48% Monkey Kingdom88 46% Vivaccio11 40% Rum And Butter109 26%
Good luck to all, hope there's a few winners amongst the top rated.
So after today's declaration stage here is the summary for day 1:Supreme Novices HurdleBentelimar37 85%Tell Us More65 83%Qewy31 82%Shaneshill86 77%Velvet Maker38 77%Jollyallan38 74%Seedling88 70%Alvisio Ville30 65%Sizing Jo
Took on a couple of Mullins hotpots on arguably the wrong day. :(
Managed two winners in Un De Sceaux and Glens Melody, and there were a couple of horses (Horizontal Speed and Generous Ransom) that would have provided an each way payout in the last (but I backed neither each way). Overall, a losing day, but not too much damage done.
Took on a couple of Mullins hotpots on arguably the wrong day. :(Managed two winners in Un De Sceaux and Glens Melody, and there were a couple of horses (Horizontal Speed and Generous Ransom) that would have provided an each way payout in the last (b
Vyta Du Roc72 100% Windsor Park31 81% Outlander45 80% Ordo Ab Chao46 72% Beast Of Burden33 71% Snow Falcon46 71% Nichols Canyon31 70% Parlour Games72 69% Warrantor60 52% Anteros39 51%
RSA Chase
Southfield Theatre31 92% Kings Palace32 87% If In Doubt46 84% Wounded Warrior53 79% Don Poli72 70% Adriana Des Mottes31 54% Apache Jack24 53% The Ould Lad27 50% The Young Master81 41%
Quantitativeeasing38 69% Any Currency89 67% Sire Collonges117 65% Duke Of Lucca89 62% Uncle Junior89 55% Hey Big Spender25 52% Toutancarmont38 49% Rose Of The Moon27 45% Chicago Grey108 44% Ipsos Du Berlais38 34% Dogora18 31% Charingworth31 31% Rivage D´Or101P 26% Are Ya Right Chief339 25% Nuage D´Ainay55 20% Master Rajeem45 20%
Fred Winter
Sebastian Beach12 84% Arabian Revolution34 80% Zarib25 80% Hostile Fire39 80% All Yours18 73% Thunder Zone25 73% Starchitect38 73% Souriyan39 73% Gwencily Berbas18 67% Dai Bando75 60% The Wallace Line74 60% Unanimite95F 60% Beatabout The Bush45 52% The Saint James39 50% Golden Doyen53 47% Bouvreuil32 47% Verawal48 47% Buiseness Sivola74 47% Qualando19 46% Box Office43 38% Baron Alco74 38% Mr Gallivanter88 36%
Champion Bumper
Montana Belle116 83% Bordini87 78% Supasundae82 78% Vigil72 77% Jetstream Jack69 70% Pylonthepressure32 69% Up For Review17 67% Moon Racer144 62% Bellshill72 61% Western Way548 60% Davy Doubt21 60% General Principle38 59% Modus340 58% Neatly Put72 58% Yanworth82 57% Au Quart De Tour59 52% Bay Of Freedom136 52% Stone Hard48 52% Ghost River18 51% Lip Service31 50% O O Seven31 44% Theo´s Charm25 35% Wait For Me25 35% Always Lion25 31%
Neptune Novices HurdleVyta Du Roc72 100%Windsor Park31 81%Outlander45 80%Ordo Ab Chao46 72%Beast Of Burden33 71%Snow Falcon46 71%Nichols Canyon31 70%Parlour Games72 69%Warrantor60 52%Anteros39 51%RSA ChaseSouth
We have Vyta Du Roc, Southfield Theatre, Baradari and QE at the top, you go Dodging Bullets and Sebastian Beach on your trends, and I have Champagne Fever and Hostile Fire on my profiles, with the Bumper having loads of closely matched profiles.
Hers hoping the past gives lots of positive clues to the present today.
Cheers JOCI.We have Vyta Du Roc, Southfield Theatre, Baradari and QE at the top, you go Dodging Bullets and Sebastian Beach on your trends, and I have Champagne Fever and Hostile Fire on my profiles, with the Bumper having loads of closely matched p
An encouraging yet ultimately unlucky and disappointing day yesterday. My each way on Vta Du Roc was in the bag until the final fence (might even have won), and he was top rated and the winner was second top rated.
Southfield Theatre ran a cracker in 2nd in the RSA (but I didn't back e/w). In the Coral Cup, the top four finishers were in my top 5 rated horses, and the neck that Zabana went down by cost me dearly.
The 100% rated Dodging Bllets finally gave me some reward.
Quantitativeesing looked set to play a massive part in the finish of the Cross Country prior to being carried out at the 2nd last, and Any Currency finished second (again, not backed each way).
Blow out in the last two races.
An encouraging yet ultimately unlucky and disappointing day yesterday. My each way on Vta Du Roc was in the bag until the final fence (might even have won), and he was top rated and the winner was second top rated.Southfield Theatre ran a cracker in
I was just looking at the 4.00 and surely Rawnaq is jumping off the page. Probably the price is he because of unfashionable connections but he's 2-3 over fences, reportedly had a problem on his only defeat, was third once in a Greatwood Hurdle, jumps well, he's powered up the hill at Navan twice ... seems to tick all the boxes. Glad to see he fits the trends as well.
Other one I had picked out was The Tourad Man in the Pertemps Final. Again glad to see he fits the trends. The Exeter qualifier is well represented and he comes out of it on better terms with Regal Encore. I quite like Alan King's quote saying he's one of the toughest horses he's trained and he has a fine record since being switched to King's.
I was just looking at the 4.00 and surely Rawnaq is jumping off the page. Probably the price is he because of unfashionable connections but he's 2-3 over fences, reportedly had a problem on his only defeat, was third once in a Greatwood Hurdle, jumps
Money Tree cost me thousands!! 05 Mar 15 12:49 Joined: 09 Mar 08 | Topic/replies: 9,426 | Blogger: Money Tree cost me thousands!!'s blog By far the best festival thread. Cheers for the effort joci. Little tree has picked cole harden as her festival hot pot.
I'll just let littlun pick them from now on.
I've had a few e/w placed but only winner in 3 days a 2 1/2 year old picked.
Nuts.
Money Tree cost me thousands!! 05 Mar 15 12:49 Joined: 09 Mar 08 | Topic/replies: 9,426 | Blogger: Money Tree cost me thousands!!'s blogBy far the best festival thread. Cheers for the effort joci. Little tree has picked cole harden as her festival ho
Nice to see another 100% horse come in today, with Vautour being very mpressive. Managed to get Don Cossack and Saphir du Rheu in the frame without hitting the target.
On the postive side, in te handicap races, the trends shortlisted a few decent priced placed horses in Rawnaq (3rd @ 25/1), The Tourad Man (3rd @ 20/1) and Buddy Bolero (3rd @ 20/1). Well done if you nanaged to get on any each way.
Have quite a lot of work to do tonight to finalise selections for tomorrow!
Nice to see another 100% horse come in today, with Vautour being very mpressive. Managed to get Don Cossack and Saphir du Rheu in the frame without hitting the target.On the postive side, in te handicap races, the trends shortlisted a few decent pric
Beltor20 89% Hargam40 88% Top Notch27 82% Devilment23 76% Pain Au Chocolat41 71% Petite Parisienne33 70% Peace And Co48 69% Stars Over The Sea90 68% Prairie Town18 57% Old Guard41 56% Dicosimo50 51% Karezak48 43% Kalkir33 39% Matorico36 39% Officer Drivel20 31% Take A Break24 25% Baraka De Thaix98 19%
Martello Tower47 87% Caracci Apache48 87% Definitly Red27 84% Fletchers Flyer27 80% No More Heroes47 79% Carningli30 77% Blaklion48 74% Arbre De Vie34 72% Native River33 72% Black Hercules96 71% Thomas Brown71 68% Measureofmydreams31 64% Shanroe Santos40 63% Tea For Two27 62% Shantou Bob62 57% Milsean15 55% Value At Risk48 51% Kylemore Lough22 48% Out Sam55 47% Avant Tout40 46%
Gold Cup
Silviniaco Conti77 82% Carlingford Lough33 78% Road To Riches75 78% Holywell29 73% Many Clouds48 67% Don Cossack57 65% Coneygree34 60% Sam Winner75 56% Djakadam50 55% Lord Windermere33 51% Boston Bob33 50% Bobs Worth75 50% Houblon Des Obeaux34 44% Smad Place48 44% Home Farm33 38% On His Own33 37% The Giant Bolster48 30% River Choice20 6%
Foxhunters
Chosen Milan15 93% Temple Grandin27 81% Universal Soldier26 79% Aiteen Thirtythree25 78% Noble Prince26P 78% On The Fringe33 78% Following Dreams29 77% Muirhead27P 75% No Loose Change19 75% Shoreacres22 75% Paint The Clouds23 75% Seventh Sign33P 72% Alskamatic40P 70% Aerial55P 69% Current Event40 69% Brackloon High47P 67% Fort George28 67% Vital Plot19P 67% Carsonstown Boy20 65% Consigliere33P 64% Salsify33 64% Need To Know33 57% Junior41 55% Cork Citizen19P 51%
Conditional Jockeys Hurdle
Noble Endeavor62 93% Roi Des Francs31 93% 92 Forthefunofit36 90% Le Mercurey55 84% 85 Killultagh Vic47 84% Jolly´s Cracked It34 82% 100 On Tour34 82% Royal Irish Hussar48 77% Shelford69 76% Macnicholson21F 76% 86 Balgarry34 70% 97 McKinley33 67% 83 Full Shift364 66% 90 Kauto Grand Mogol31 64% Sleepy Haven34 63% Conquisto25 63% Vieux Lion Rouge111 62% 80 Alderbrook Lad41 59% Party Rock36 56% 102 Pearl Swan117 56% 91 Bordoni34 53% Peckhamecho62 49% 82 Edeymi40 45% 101 Barizan198 44%
Grand Annual
Ted Veale54 92% Grumeti41 92% Blood Cotil34 73% Karinga Dancer34 72% Turn Over Sivola34 72% Ned Buntline76 70% Eastlake55 68% Dresden13 5x 66% Festive Affair41 65% Turban31 64% Claret Cloak132 62% Astracad90 59% Brick Red41 57% Firth Of The Clyde41 57% Mount Colah67 55% Chris Pea Green68 55% Bold Henry62 55% Solar Impulse48 54% Next Sensation104 54% Croco Bay27 50% My Brother Sylvest27 50% Tanks For That27 46% Bellenos83 40% Dick Dundee50 33%
Good luck all !
FridayTriumph HurdleBeltor20 89%Hargam40 88%Top Notch27 82%Devilment23 76%Pain Au Chocolat41 71%Petite Parisienne33 70%Peace And Co48 69%Stars Over The Sea90 68%Prairie Town18 57%Old Guard41 56%Dicosimo50 51%
Chosen Milan is very interesting! I'm already on at 40/1 and it appears as though there's a bit of interest in this one. 40/1 and 4 places with a few bookies, a great e/w bet
Chosen Milan is very interesting! I'm already on at 40/1 and it appears as though there's a bit of interest in this one. 40/1 and 4 places with a few bookies, a great e/w bet