Cheltenham Festival
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Rght then, time to start the donkey work in readiness for March. Setting up the new spreadsheet, clearing out the old data etc, and readying it for the 'data onslaught' from now til the Festival.
Thanks in advance to Racecaller for his invaluable trends data. Will provide soon a quick recap of how the analysis fared last year (9 winners).
Looking forward to the challenge.
Thanks in advance to Racecaller for his invaluable trends data. Will provide soon a quick recap of how the analysis fared last year (9 winners).
Looking forward to the challenge.
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Top stuff JOCI... Look forward to it, as always.
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Looking forward to this as always JOCI.
Good luck with it. |
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Looking forward to this JOCI, thanks.
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2014 Winners:
Vautour Quevega Midnight Prayer Faugheen Sire De Grugy Balthazar King Silver Concorde Taquin De Seuil Lac Fontana |
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always a good read, really looking forward to it joci
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2014 Winners:
Vautour Quevega Midnight Prayer Faugheen Sire De Grugy Balthazar King Silver Concorde Taquin De Seuil Lac Fontana 2013 Winners: Champagne Fever Simonsig Hurricane Fly The New One Quevega Golden Chieftain Sprinter Sacre Medinas Our Connor Ted Veale At Fishers Cross Salsify Alderwood I don't think I'll ever beat the haul from 2013 especially winners at 42/1 and 33/1. In addition, the system picked a tricast (Champion Hurdle) and a 200/1+ exacta (Foxhunters),which I didn't back! However, two years worth of success is nothing, and I'm hoping to show it wasn't just a flash in the pan by shortlisting / backing more winners this year. Watch this space. All comments appreciated, good or bad, and any ideas on how things can be improved would be most welcome. |
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Always interested in your musings JOCI. This meeting can be a minefield and most of us need all the help we can get!
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Good luck with this years trends JOCI. Hope my AP are near the top.
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Excellent JOCI,
You do a top job every year. Would you have Racecaller's trend analysis to share, in case I fancy an Ante post squeak or two beforehand. It would give me more confidence knowing the trends are onside. Cheers |
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They are not out / updated until much closer to the Festival but you will be able to get them here (and the historic ones).
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Best of luck JOCI Club
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Might want to try using gaultstats (https://sites.google.com/site/gaultstats/Home) website for stats and trends, with some good general analysis too
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http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races
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roger - that's one I use too to supplement my analysis - again, very useful.
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Great stat links, thanks boys.
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Long range, initial investigation of the Mares Hurdle (with plenty of things potentially changing over next couple of weeks). Here are the current rankings:
Aurore D´Estruval66 88% Carole´s Spirit52 88% Glens Melody31 82% The Pirate´s Queen80 82% Annie Power311 80% Bitofapuzzle52 80% Gitane Du Berlais38 80% The Govaness40 73% Carrigmoorna Rock38 59% Jennys Surprise52 59% Land Of Vic24 58% Emily Gray31 56% Mischievous Milly52 56% Clara Mc Cloud106 55% Jennies Jewel54 54% Little King Robin100 54% Rhythm Star40 54% Melbourne Lady38 53% Analifet45 52% Polly Peachum106 51% Fairytale Theatre31 50% Pass The Time45 48% Koolala45 46% L´Unique106 46% Dark Spirit52 45% Doyly Carte37 44% Mayfair Music31 44% Hidden Identity38 40% Rock On The Moor38 40% Swing Bowler31 40% Baie Des Iles38 38% Keppols Queen28 38% Centasia59 37% Flementime68 30% Sureness142 30% Va´Vite486 23% |
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Annie Power's lack of a prep run currently stops her from jointly heading the rankings. Will she be ready to 'do a Quevega'?
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Supreme Novices Hurdle
Acknowledging things can still change betwen nw and day 1 of the Festival (and largely unknown running plans), here are the tentative initial ratings for the Supreme Novices Hurdle: Morning Run38 94% Nichols Canyon30 90% Jollyallan38 89% Lyrical Theatre38 87% Outlander44 85% Bentelimar37 85% Black Hercules93 85% Tell Us More65 83% Qewy31 82% Beast Of Burden32 79% Phil´s Magic31 77% Shaneshill86 77% Velvet Maker38 77% Cardinal Walter31 73% Chieftain´s Choice31 73% Glingerburn26 70% Seedling88 70% Parlour Games71 67% Golantilla73 66% Alvisio Ville30 65% Sub Lieutenant30 65% The Grey Taylor37 64% Sizing John73 64% Some Plan37 63% Vago Collonges45 63% Otago Trail24 62% Twentytwo´s Taken47 62% Windsor Park30 62% Peace And Co45 60% Jolly´s Cracked It31 60% Max Dynamite72 60% Aminabad37 59% Douvan59 59% Identity Thief30 59% Daring Carlotta115 59% Dicosimo47 58% Theophilus73 58% Rich Coast156 56% Silver Concorde30 56% Fascino Rustico31 55% On Tour31 55% All Hell Let Loose37 55% Kalkir30 54% Aso31 54% Mr Diablo37 54% Boru´s Brook43 53% Zarib24 53% L´Ami Serge66 51% Commissioned114 51% Royal Caviar47 49% Blair Perrone30 49% Open Eagle37 49% McKinley30 46% Ebony Express31 45% War Sound30 45% Ballybolley31 44% El Namoose37 44% Restraint Of Trade25 44% Zip Top41 44% Hunters Hoof136 43% Vercingetorix30 41% Alpha Des Obeaux59 40% Sempre Medici30 40% A Boy Named Suzi37 35% Chatez33 35% Laser Hawk83 35% Nathans Pride33 35% Arzal31 35% Cloonacool31 35% Risk A Fine31 35% Stylish Chap37 35% Apsatou92 34% Karezak45 31% Baily Cloud31 30% Hold The Line94 30% Okotoks72 30% Lanceur56 25% Dabadiyan198F 24% Thorpe52 24% No Dice74 20% Kiama Bay45 15% Lac Leman42 15% Chartbreaker238F 6% |
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Hold the front page....just spotted something. Need to revise........
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Nope.....all seems fine after all.
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JOCI that's really interesting re Morning Run and the Supreme.
I suspect we might use similar methods -she hits every single one of my key trends for this race - she also hits the breeding profile and has more than adequate speed ratings too. Word from Ireland is she's not even on the boat. That Mullins couldn't train ivy up a wall! |
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Following the defections from the Supreme Novices Hurdle overnight, here are the revised current rankings:
Nichols Canyon30 90% Jollyallan38 89% Outlander44 85% Bentelimar37 85% Black Hercules93 85% Tell Us More65 83% Qewy31 82% Beast Of Burden32 79% Phil´s Magic31 77% Shaneshill86 77% Velvet Maker38 77% Cardinal Walter31 73% Chieftain´s Choice31 73% Seedling88 70% Parlour Games71 67% Golantilla73 66% Alvisio Ville30 65% Sub Lieutenant30 65% The Grey Taylor37 64% Sizing John73 64% Some Plan37 63% Vago Collonges45 63% Jolly´s Cracked It31 60% Max Dynamite72 60% Aminabad37 59% Douvan59 59% Dicosimo47 58% Silver Concorde30 56% On Tour31 55% All Hell Let Loose37 55% Kalkir30 54% Aso31 54% Boru´s Brook43 53% L´Ami Serge66 51% Commissioned114 51% McKinley30 46% Zip Top41 44% Laser Hawk83 35% Nathans Pride33 35% Arzal31 35% Karezak45 31% Hold The Line94 30% Okotoks72 30% Dabadiyan198F 24% Kiama Bay45 15% |
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Arkle Chase preliminary trend ratings:
Vautour51 84% Un De Sceaux44 83% Vibrato Valtat31 83% Josses Hill32 71% Gitane Du Berlais38 70% Three Kingdoms45 69% Clarcam44 60% Melodic Rendezvous30 56% Top Gamble31 52% Blood Cotil31 51% Le Vent D´Antan30 51% Chris Pea Green65 46% Un Ace87 44% Adriana Des Mottes30 44% Grumeti38 42% Dunraven Storm81 42% Sizing Granite65 40% Sgt Reckless60F 39% Smashing47 37% Court Minstrel94 30% Ted Veale51 30% Cold March24 27% God´s Own73 26% Sail By The Sea39 25% Stellar Notion45 25% Turn Over Sivola31 13% No major surprises here, with the big guns topping the rankings. With Vautour unlikely to run in this, it looks like it's between the top two. |
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Thanks for all the work Joci, Hope it pays off yet again for you.
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RSA Chase preliminary trend rankings:
Apache Stronghold31 95% Southfield Theatre31 92% Kings Palace32 87% If In Doubt46 84% Wounded Warrior53 79% Coneygree32 78% Valseur Lido31 74% Very Wood24 74% Carraig Mor53 72% Vautour52 71% Don Poli72 70% The Tullow Tank31 67% Sausalito Sunrise75 66% Fine Rightly47 65% Thunder And Roses24 65% Carole´s Destrier25 63% Le Vent D´Antan31 54% Apache Jack24 53% The Ould Lad27 50% Adriana Des Mottes31 46% Vroum Vroum Mag55 44% Blood Cotil32 43% The Young Master81 41% Band Of Blood75 35% As De Ferbet70 29% Cause Of Causes48 21% |
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Thanks for posting
out of interest do you play every one that hits your 80% ? if not what does your staking plan look like ? Thanks |
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How many of the 80%+ ones do you back Joci?
Do you just go for the top one, or all that are 80%+? |
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Got there ahead of me
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There's no significance to the 80% rating...I just happened to highlight the top several in the list. I'll often back more than one in the race, and in the larger handicaps, due to the high prices that some of the top rated come out with, I'll back 3 or 4 in the race at longer odds, with smaller stakes.
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Ta, was just wondering about your strike rate and if that was backing more than 1 per race. That amount of winners is some going.
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Early days trend ratings for the Neptune Investments Novices Hurdle:
Caracci Apache46 90% Roi Des Francs29 90% Vyta Du Roc72 90% Definitly Red25 81% Windsor Park31 81% Outlander45 80% No More Heroes45 72% Ordo Ab Chao46 72% Alpha Des Obeaux60 71% Beast Of Burden33 71% Black Hercules94 71% Monbeg Theatre39 71% Snow Falcon46 71% Douvan60 70% Martello Tower45 70% Nichols Canyon31 70% Shaneshill87 70% Parlour Games72 69% Aso32 62% Bentelimar38 62% Jolly´s Cracked It32 62% Killultagh Vic45 62% Shelford67 62% Sub Lieutenant31 62% Arbre De Vie32 61% Shantou Bob60 61% Tea For Two25 61% Thomas Brown69 61% Jollyallan39 60% Tell Us More66 60% All Hell Let Loose38 52% Ballagh25 52% Brother Tedd69 52% Carningli28 52% Commissioned115 52% Killer Crow66 52% Kingswell Theatre25 52% McKinley31 52% Rock The Kasbah63 52% Scorpiancer33 52% Warrantor60 52% Anteros39 51% Fine Theatre49 51% Kauto Grand Mogol29 51% Kilcrea Vale55 51% Measureofmydreams29 51% On Tour32 51% Seedling89 51% Aengus32 42% Arzal32 42% Foryourinformation39 42% Marinero46 42% Sambremont69 42% Alternatif75 40% Bivouac46 40% Kingscourt Native32 40% Milsean55 40% Phil´s Magic32 40% Three Faces West23 40% Boru´s Brook23 39% Alvisio Ville31 31% Aminabad38 31% Avant Tout38 31% Okotoks73 31% Qewy32 31% Cardinal Walter32 30% Laser Hawk84 30% Max Dynamite73 30% Golan Dancer58 20% Golantilla74 20% Inner Drive378 20% Nathans Pride34 20% Russian Bolero151 0% |
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What does Douvan fall down on to have him so low JOCI ?
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Great stuff again Joci, looking forward to following the thread again this year. Just out of interest how many 2nd's, 3rd's and 4th's (where appropriate) did you have last year?
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he had a few fallers and brought downs last yr - some horses have progressed well too - so what could have been.
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Joined:
04 Dec 06 | Topic/replies: 1,064 | Blogger: brandyontherocks's blog What does Douvan fall down on to have him so low JOCI ? Not won a bumper or flat rated 86+ Not won a large filed race >14 runners (unproven in hurly burly) Not finished top 4 in aGrade 1 hurdle (but not contested one) Not had a recent enough prep run (but not by much) Not in right price bracket (favourites not done well recently and longer priced horses tend to win it) That's not to say he's not a monster and capable of outclassing these, just that he's not a typical winner according to my analysis. |
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Cheers mate.
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Joci, I do trends the the same as you and I've amended that bumper one. I've simply now got it as 'didn't run on the flat'.
Two reasons behind this. Firstly, I think the main negative is around flat horses and this is probably since the watering policy came into force, it just doesn't suit them as much anymore. Also, there's an additional stat to back that up I that Binocular is the only horse to have run on the flat to have even placed in the last 7 renewals, and we have had some fancied ones in that time. Secondly, with the influx of french breds, you are in danger of missing one. They don't all run in a bumper over there like they do here - some just go straight to hurdling, such as vautour last year. They are the same sort of horse you are looking for, in that they are bred for the game and like a bit more cut than flat horses, they just start their career a bit differently |
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Fair points and something to consider rtaher than just ruling out the types of horses you refer to, as it didn't stop Vautour last season. Vautour was close to top rated last season (within a percentage point of Wicklow Brave and Gilgamboa) and that was with being marked down for the lack of bumper form, but he was strong in all the other trends (apart from likely price), so it was perhaps not a surprise to see him come home in front (and I did back him for that reason). I think I wouldn't be a backer of Douvan though, as there is not just one but several trends he doesn't satifsy. Can't say I'd be a confident layer either though. :)
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Here's the preliminary analysis for the JLT Novices Chase, and the trends suggest Vautour as the most likely winner, as he satisfies all of the key trends.
Vautour53 100% Three Kingdoms47 93% Valseur Lido32 91% Apache Stronghold32 82% Don Poli73 82% Shanahan´s Turn32 66% Irish Saint40 62% Un Ace89 62% Apache Jack25 59% Smashing49 59% Le Vent D´Antan32 58% Ptit Zig26 58% Gitane Du Berlais40 56% Vroum Vroum Mag56 56% Josses Hill34 52% Top Gamble33 52% The Tullow Tank32 51% Killala Quay62 44% Knock House76 44% Splash Of Ginge40 44% Melodic Rendezvous32 43% Adriana Des Mottes32 42% Band Of Blood76 42% Hollow Penny124 35% Puffin Billy40 35% Tango De Juilley50 35% God´s Own75 33% Big Water24 26% Colour Squadron54 26% Traffic Fluide31 26% Kings Lad33 18% Cold March26 9% |