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JOCI Club
07 Jan 15 20:43
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Date Joined: 13 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 23,205 | Blogger: JOCI Club's blog
Rght then, time to start the donkey work in readiness for March. Setting up the new spreadsheet, clearing out the old data etc, and readying it for the 'data onslaught' from now til the Festival.

Thanks in advance to Racecaller for his invaluable trends data. Will provide soon a quick recap of how the analysis fared last year (9 winners).

Looking forward to the challenge.

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Replies: 194
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 07 Jan 15 20:48
Top stuff JOCI... Look forward to it, as always.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 07 Jan 15 20:50
Looking forward to this as always JOCI.
Good luck with it.
By:
Joist
When: 07 Jan 15 21:00
Looking forward to this JOCI, thanks.
By:
JOCI Club
When: 07 Jan 15 21:39
2014 Winners:

Vautour
Quevega
Midnight Prayer
Faugheen
Sire De Grugy
Balthazar King
Silver Concorde
Taquin De Seuil
Lac Fontana
By:
alleged22
When: 07 Jan 15 22:42
always a good read, really looking forward to it joci Happy
By:
JOCI Club
When: 07 Jan 15 23:18
2014 Winners:

Vautour
Quevega
Midnight Prayer
Faugheen
Sire De Grugy
Balthazar King
Silver Concorde
Taquin De Seuil
Lac Fontana

2013 Winners:

Champagne Fever
Simonsig
Hurricane Fly
The New One
Quevega
Golden Chieftain
Sprinter Sacre
Medinas
Our Connor
Ted Veale
At Fishers Cross
Salsify
Alderwood

I don't think I'll ever beat the haul from 2013 especially winners at 42/1 and 33/1. In addition, the system picked a tricast (Champion Hurdle) and a 200/1+ exacta (Foxhunters),which I didn't back!

However, two years worth of success is nothing, and I'm hoping to show it wasn't just a flash in the pan by shortlisting / backing more winners this year.

Watch this space. All comments appreciated, good or bad, and any ideas on how things can be improved would be most welcome.
By:
festivalfanatic
When: 08 Jan 15 08:34
Always interested in your musings JOCI. This meeting can be a minefield and most of us need all the help we can get!Grin
By:
shockster
When: 08 Jan 15 09:13
Good luck with this years trends JOCI. Hope my AP are near the top.Cool
By:
deepingfox
When: 08 Jan 15 20:58
Excellent JOCI,

You do a top job every year.

Would you have Racecaller's trend analysis to share, in case I fancy an Ante post squeak or two beforehand. It would give me more confidence knowing the trends are onside.

Cheers
By:
JOCI Club
When: 08 Jan 15 21:32
They are not out / updated until much closer to the Festival but you will be able to get them here (and the historic ones).
By:
SoYouThink
When: 08 Jan 15 21:37
Best of luck JOCI Club
By:
rogerthebutler
When: 08 Jan 15 21:39
Might want to try using gaultstats (https://sites.google.com/site/gaultstats/Home) website for stats and trends, with some good general analysis too
By:
JOCI Club
When: 08 Jan 15 21:52
http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races
By:
JOCI Club
When: 08 Jan 15 21:53
roger - that's one I use too to supplement my analysis - again, very useful.
By:
deepingfox
When: 09 Jan 15 21:10
Great stat links, thanks boys.
By:
JOCI Club
When: 16 Feb 15 23:51
Long range, initial investigation of the Mares Hurdle (with plenty of things potentially changing over next couple of weeks). Here are the current rankings:

Aurore D´Estruval66     88%
Carole´s Spirit52    88%
Glens Melody31    82%
The Pirate´s Queen80     82%
Annie Power311     80%
Bitofapuzzle52    80%
Gitane Du Berlais38    80%

The Govaness40    73%
Carrigmoorna Rock38    59%
Jennys Surprise52    59%
Land Of Vic24    58%
Emily Gray31    56%
Mischievous Milly52    56%
Clara Mc Cloud106     55%
Jennies Jewel54     54%
Little King Robin100     54%
Rhythm Star40    54%
Melbourne Lady38    53%
Analifet45    52%
Polly Peachum106     51%
Fairytale Theatre31    50%
Pass The Time45    48%
Koolala45    46%
L´Unique106     46%
Dark Spirit52    45%
Doyly Carte37    44%
Mayfair Music31    44%
Hidden Identity38    40%
Rock On The Moor38    40%
Swing Bowler31    40%
Baie Des Iles38    38%
Keppols Queen28    38%
Centasia59     37%
Flementime68     30%
Sureness142     30%
Va´Vite486     23%
By:
JOCI Club
When: 16 Feb 15 23:57
Annie Power's lack of a prep run currently stops her from jointly heading the rankings. Will she be ready to 'do a Quevega'?
By:
JOCI Club
When: 17 Feb 15 23:21
Supreme Novices Hurdle

Acknowledging things can still change betwen nw and day 1 of the Festival (and largely unknown running plans), here are the tentative initial ratings for the Supreme Novices Hurdle:

Morning Run38    94%
Nichols Canyon30    90%
Jollyallan38    89%
Lyrical Theatre38    87%
Outlander44     85%
Bentelimar37    85%
Black Hercules93     85%
Tell Us More65     83%
Qewy31    82%

Beast Of Burden32    79%
Phil´s Magic31    77%
Shaneshill86     77%
Velvet Maker38    77%
Cardinal Walter31    73%
Chieftain´s Choice31    73%
Glingerburn26    70%
Seedling88     70%
Parlour Games71     67%
Golantilla73     66%
Alvisio Ville30    65%
Sub Lieutenant30    65%
The Grey Taylor37    64%
Sizing John73     64%
Some Plan37    63%
Vago Collonges45     63%
Otago Trail24    62%
Twentytwo´s Taken47     62%
Windsor Park30    62%
Peace And Co45     60%
Jolly´s Cracked It31    60%
Max Dynamite72     60%
Aminabad37    59%
Douvan59     59%
Identity Thief30    59%
Daring Carlotta115     59%
Dicosimo47     58%
Theophilus73     58%
Rich Coast156     56%
Silver Concorde30    56%
Fascino Rustico31    55%
On Tour31    55%
All Hell Let Loose37    55%
Kalkir30    54%
Aso31    54%
Mr Diablo37    54%
Boru´s Brook43     53%
Zarib24    53%
L´Ami Serge66     51%
Commissioned114     51%
Royal Caviar47     49%
Blair Perrone30    49%
Open Eagle37    49%
McKinley30    46%
Ebony Express31     45%
War Sound30    45%
Ballybolley31    44%
El Namoose37    44%
Restraint Of Trade25    44%
Zip Top41     44%
Hunters Hoof136     43%
Vercingetorix30    41%
Alpha Des Obeaux59     40%
Sempre Medici30    40%
A Boy Named Suzi37    35%
Chatez33     35%
Laser Hawk83     35%
Nathans Pride33     35%
Arzal31    35%
Cloonacool31    35%
Risk A Fine31    35%
Stylish Chap37    35%
Apsatou92    34%
Karezak45     31%
Baily Cloud31    30%
Hold The Line94     30%
Okotoks72     30%
Lanceur56     25%
Dabadiyan198F     24%
Thorpe52     24%
No Dice74     20%
Kiama Bay45     15%
Lac Leman42     15%
Chartbreaker238F     6%
By:
JOCI Club
When: 17 Feb 15 23:24
Hold the front page....just spotted something. Need to revise........
By:
JOCI Club
When: 17 Feb 15 23:26
Nope.....all seems fine after all.
By:
rogerthebutler
When: 18 Feb 15 08:42
JOCI that's really interesting re Morning Run and the Supreme.

I suspect we might use similar methods -she hits every single one of my key trends for this race - she also hits the breeding profile and has more than adequate speed ratings too.

Word from Ireland is she's not even on the boat.

That Mullins couldn't train ivy up a wall! Grin
By:
JOCI Club
When: 18 Feb 15 19:56
Following the defections from the Supreme Novices Hurdle overnight, here are the revised current rankings:

Nichols Canyon30    90%
Jollyallan38    89%
Outlander44     85%
Bentelimar37    85%
Black Hercules93     85%
Tell Us More65     83%
Qewy31    82%

Beast Of Burden32    79%
Phil´s Magic31    77%
Shaneshill86     77%
Velvet Maker38    77%
Cardinal Walter31    73%
Chieftain´s Choice31    73%
Seedling88     70%
Parlour Games71     67%
Golantilla73     66%
Alvisio Ville30    65%
Sub Lieutenant30    65%
The Grey Taylor37    64%
Sizing John73     64%
Some Plan37    63%
Vago Collonges45     63%
Jolly´s Cracked It31    60%
Max Dynamite72     60%
Aminabad37    59%
Douvan59     59%
Dicosimo47     58%
Silver Concorde30    56%
On Tour31    55%
All Hell Let Loose37    55%
Kalkir30    54%
Aso31    54%
Boru´s Brook43     53%
L´Ami Serge66     51%
Commissioned114     51%
McKinley30    46%
Zip Top41     44%
Laser Hawk83     35%
Nathans Pride33     35%
Arzal31    35%
Karezak45     31%
Hold The Line94     30%
Okotoks72     30%
Dabadiyan198F     24%
Kiama Bay45     15%
By:
JOCI Club
When: 18 Feb 15 20:39
Arkle Chase preliminary trend ratings:

Vautour51     84%
Un De Sceaux44    83%
Vibrato Valtat31    83%

Josses Hill32    71%
Gitane Du Berlais38    70%
Three Kingdoms45    69%
Clarcam44    60%
Melodic Rendezvous30    56%
Top Gamble31    52%
Blood Cotil31    51%
Le Vent D´Antan30    51%
Chris Pea Green65     46%
Un Ace87     44%
Adriana Des Mottes30    44%
Grumeti38    42%
Dunraven Storm81     42%
Sizing Granite65     40%
Sgt Reckless60F     39%
Smashing47    37%
Court Minstrel94     30%
Ted Veale51     30%
Cold March24    27%
God´s Own73     26%
Sail By The Sea39    25%
Stellar Notion45    25%
Turn Over Sivola31    13%

No major surprises here, with the big guns topping the rankings. With Vautour unlikely to run in this, it looks like it's between the top two.
By:
gutfeeling
When: 18 Feb 15 20:49
Thanks for all the work Joci, Hope it pays off yet again for you.
By:
JOCI Club
When: 18 Feb 15 20:59
RSA Chase preliminary trend rankings:

Apache Stronghold31    95%
Southfield Theatre31    92%
Kings Palace32    87%
If In Doubt46    84%

Wounded Warrior53     79%
Coneygree32    78%
Valseur Lido31    74%
Very Wood24    74%
Carraig Mor53     72%
Vautour52     71%
Don Poli72     70%
The Tullow Tank31    67%
Sausalito Sunrise75     66%
Fine Rightly47     65%
Thunder And Roses24    65%
Carole´s Destrier25    63%
Le Vent D´Antan31    54%
Apache Jack24    53%
The Ould Lad27    50%
Adriana Des Mottes31    46%
Vroum Vroum Mag55     44%
Blood Cotil32    43%
The Young Master81     41%
Band Of Blood75     35%
As De Ferbet70     29%
Cause Of Causes48     21%
By:
benkneale03
When: 18 Feb 15 21:07
Thanks for posting

out of interest do you play every one that hits your 80% ? if not what does your staking plan look like ?

Thanks
By:
wellchief
When: 18 Feb 15 21:08
How many of the 80%+ ones do you back Joci?

Do you just go for the top one, or all that are 80%+?
By:
wellchief
When: 18 Feb 15 21:08
Got there ahead of me Laugh
By:
JOCI Club
When: 18 Feb 15 21:22
There's no significance to the 80% rating...I just happened to highlight the top several in the list. I'll often back more than one in the race, and in the larger handicaps, due to the high prices that some of the top rated come out with, I'll back 3 or 4 in the race at longer odds, with smaller stakes.
By:
benkneale03
When: 18 Feb 15 22:00
Ta, was just wondering about your strike rate and if that was backing more than 1 per race. That amount of winners is some going.
By:
JOCI Club
When: 18 Feb 15 23:22
Early days trend ratings for the Neptune Investments Novices Hurdle:

Caracci Apache46     90%
Roi Des Francs29    90%
Vyta Du Roc72     90%

Definitly Red25    81%
Windsor Park31    81%
Outlander45     80%
No More Heroes45     72%
Ordo Ab Chao46     72%
Alpha Des Obeaux60     71%
Beast Of Burden33    71%
Black Hercules94     71%
Monbeg Theatre39     71%
Snow Falcon46     71%
Douvan60     70%
Martello Tower45     70%
Nichols Canyon31    70%
Shaneshill87     70%
Parlour Games72     69%
Aso32    62%
Bentelimar38     62%
Jolly´s Cracked It32    62%
Killultagh Vic45     62%
Shelford67     62%
Sub Lieutenant31    62%
Arbre De Vie32    61%
Shantou Bob60     61%
Tea For Two25    61%
Thomas Brown69     61%
Jollyallan39     60%
Tell Us More66     60%
All Hell Let Loose38     52%
Ballagh25    52%
Brother Tedd69     52%
Carningli28    52%
Commissioned115     52%
Killer Crow66     52%
Kingswell Theatre25    52%
McKinley31    52%
Rock The Kasbah63     52%
Scorpiancer33    52%
Warrantor60     52%
Anteros39     51%
Fine Theatre49     51%
Kauto Grand Mogol29    51%
Kilcrea Vale55     51%
Measureofmydreams29    51%
On Tour32    51%
Seedling89     51%
Aengus32    42%
Arzal32    42%
Foryourinformation39     42%
Marinero46     42%
Sambremont69     42%
Alternatif75     40%
Bivouac46     40%
Kingscourt Native32    40%
Milsean55     40%
Phil´s Magic32    40%
Three Faces West23    40%
Boru´s Brook23    39%
Alvisio Ville31    31%
Aminabad38     31%
Avant Tout38     31%
Okotoks73     31%
Qewy32    31%
Cardinal Walter32    30%
Laser Hawk84     30%
Max Dynamite73     30%
Golan Dancer58     20%
Golantilla74     20%
Inner Drive378     20%
Nathans Pride34    20%
Russian Bolero151     0%
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 19 Feb 15 08:37
What does Douvan fall down on to have him so low JOCI ?
By:
thewrongtrousers
When: 19 Feb 15 11:59
Great stuff again Joci, looking forward to following the thread again this year. Just out of interest how many 2nd's, 3rd's and 4th's (where appropriate) did you have last year?
By:
Ming_the_Merciless
When: 19 Feb 15 12:30
he had a few fallers and brought downs last yr - some horses have progressed well too - so what could have been.
By:
JOCI Club
When: 19 Feb 15 20:06
Joined:
04 Dec 06
| Topic/replies: 1,064 | Blogger: brandyontherocks's blog
What does Douvan fall down on to have him so low JOCI ?


Not won a bumper or flat rated 86+
Not won a large filed race >14 runners (unproven in hurly burly)
Not finished top 4 in  aGrade 1 hurdle (but not contested one)
Not had a recent enough prep run (but not by much)
Not in right price bracket (favourites not done well recently and longer priced horses tend to win it)

That's not to say he's not a monster and capable of outclassing these, just that he's not a typical winner according to my analysis.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 19 Feb 15 20:58
Cheers mate.
By:
Tory
When: 19 Feb 15 22:24
Joci, I do trends the the same as you and I've amended that bumper one. I've simply now got it as 'didn't run on the flat'.

Two reasons behind this. Firstly, I think the main negative is around flat horses and this is probably since the watering policy came into force, it just doesn't suit them as much anymore. Also, there's an additional stat to back that up I that Binocular is the only horse to have run on the flat to have even placed in the last 7 renewals, and we have had some fancied ones in that time.

Secondly, with the influx of french breds, you are in danger of missing one. They don't all run in a bumper over there like they do here - some just go straight to hurdling, such as vautour last year. They are the same sort of horse you are looking for, in that they are bred for the game and like a bit more cut than flat horses, they just start their career a bit differently
By:
JOCI Club
When: 19 Feb 15 23:17
Fair points and something to consider rtaher than just ruling out the types of horses you refer to, as it didn't stop Vautour last season. Vautour was close to top rated last season (within a percentage point of Wicklow Brave and Gilgamboa) and that was with being marked down for the lack of bumper form, but he was strong in all the other trends (apart from likely price), so it was perhaps not a surprise to see him come home in front (and I did back him for that reason). I think I wouldn't be a backer of Douvan though, as there is not just one but several trends he doesn't satifsy. Can't say I'd be a confident layer either though. :)
By:
JOCI Club
When: 19 Feb 15 23:30
Here's the preliminary analysis for the JLT Novices Chase, and the trends suggest Vautour as the most likely winner, as he satisfies all of the key trends.

Vautour53     100%
Three Kingdoms47    93%
Valseur Lido32    91%

Apache Stronghold32    82%
Don Poli73     82%
Shanahan´s Turn32    66%
Irish Saint40    62%
Un Ace89     62%
Apache Jack25    59%
Smashing49     59%
Le Vent D´Antan32    58%
Ptit Zig26    58%
Gitane Du Berlais40    56%
Vroum Vroum Mag56     56%
Josses Hill34    52%
Top Gamble33    52%
The Tullow Tank32    51%
Killala Quay62     44%
Knock House76     44%
Splash Of Ginge40    44%
Melodic Rendezvous32    43%
Adriana Des Mottes32    42%
Band Of Blood76     42%
Hollow Penny124     35%
Puffin Billy40    35%
Tango De Juilley50     35%
God´s Own75     33%
Big Water24    26%
Colour Squadron54     26%
Traffic Fluide31    26%
Kings Lad33    18%
Cold March26    9%
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