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Cheltenham Festival

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bonnie
02 Jan 15 08:39
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Date Joined: 19 Aug 11
| Topic/replies: 238 | Blogger: bonnie's blog
any opinions ?

i've just chucked a bit at Zarkandar, apparently an improved animal this season, STD needs to hold onto him for much longer than he did at Ascot tho.
Opposition doesn't appear great

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Replies: 348
By:
SoYouThink
When: 02 Jan 15 10:43
I agree about the opposition - it looks a bit thin especially with the doubts about the top 2 in the betting: More of That and Beat That.

Zarkandar looks the obvious candidate and I agree he has a great chance. The tactic of keeping him fresh is an interesting move too. He's only an 8yo too.

Rock On Ruby would the other one that has entered the picture. He's a Cheltenham specialist but he's getting on in years himself. In hindsight it's a pity he wasn't running in this last year instead of the Arkle.

The Irish horses don't have a great record for whatever reason. Monksland ran an eyecatching race though at Christmas but it's hard to be confident about a horse who was off for 2 years on the basis of one run.
By:
Glossy
When: 02 Jan 15 10:47
I really like Lieutenant Colonel for this. Travels well, slick jumper and quickens very nicely. Don't think he will be far away.
By:
Joist
When: 02 Jan 15 11:29
Agree with Lieutenant Colonel, he's surely overpriced? Best of the Irish, still an improving beast and it's hard to be confident on the likes of More Of That, Zarkandar; Beat That will improve on his comeback but still has plenty to prove at this level.
By:
wellchief
When: 02 Jan 15 11:42
I've been all over Lieutenant Colonel since his first victory over Jetson - I put on another thread before his win the other day, that I'd backed him to win that race and the WH @ 66/1, so sitting on a nice bet.  Backed him at 25's and 16's as well.

I wouldn't have been to disheartened at Beat That's come back yesterday.  Market suggested he could never win, over a trip too short, pulling like a train.  He travelled and jumped well, and just blew up, so I'd be confident he can still run a big race in March.
By:
El Caker
When: 05 Jan 15 18:35
Cole Harden is a tremendous bet for The World Hurdle.
He ran an absolute cracker at Wetherby on his seasonal debut in a stunning time (12" quicker than standard). That looked questionable in light of the race distance fiasco but in reality it was more impressive than it first looked as the horse actually ran some 30 yards FURTHER than was first thought.
He then turned up at Newbury, and in conditions that weren't sure to suit, they rode him aggressively, in essence to beat More Of That. They achieved that but in doing so set the race up for Medinas, whom Cole HArden had dismissed at Wetherby by 8 lengths.
So to Cheltenham and the New Year Day's outing over a palpably too short 2m 4f. The opposition was decent however, Vaniteux is obviously no mug and Rock On Ruby is in himself a very decent yardstick. Harden without question was beaten far and square but the way he stayed on up the hill, having made the running, to only be beaten by less than 2 and half lengths in 3rd suggests to me that this horse is going the right way.
Paddy Power were 33/1 for The World Hurdle before that run, he is now a best priced 20s, but with plenty of firms now going non runner no bet, this still looks a very very competitive price.   
Yes there are question marks over his trainer who has yet to have a festival winner and the jockey is also in-experienced but everyone starts out like this and I'm sure even the biggest doubters would struggle to suggest that Greatrex or Sheehan won't have Festival winners over the course of their careers.
If I am wrong then so be it, but at 20s I am willing to play and play hard as I really cant see him out of the three and I am almost certain he'll be shorter than 20s on the day.
By:
bluebirdfan
When: 07 Jan 15 10:39
More of That is still the most likely winner to my mind BUT even by Jonjo's winter standards this barren spell has to be a worry now
By:
Wicketd
When: 12 Jan 15 16:59
un temps pour tout a possibility for david pipe.

thrashed cole harden over 20f last year and ran a good race at punchestown off a mark of 150.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 12 Jan 15 17:03
is he injured wicketd? no news all season on the horse
By:
Wicketd
When: 12 Jan 15 17:08
david pipes blog:

"Races close tomorrow for the Champion Hurdle, World Hurdle and OLBG Mares’ Hurdle and while I do not envisage having anything for the Champion Hurdle, I would imagine that Un Temps Pour Tout (pictured right) will be entered in the World Hurdle. Although yet to run this season, he is pleasing me at home and is not far from a run, indeed I intend to run him in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham on 24th January. His form from last season looks rock solid and I believe he could prove even better over three miles. While further improvement is required to figure in a championship race such as the World Hurdle, it is not beyond the realms of possibility and he is thoroughly deserving of an entry. I will bring you news of the remainder of our big race engagements next week."
By:
harry callaghan
When: 12 Jan 15 17:30
interesting thx wicketd i have liked him for a while tbh just wasn't sure he was injured but he is certainly of interest, although clearly not the easiest to train

be interesting how he gets on in the cleeve...he is a classy horse
By:
wellchief
When: 12 Jan 15 17:41
^^ I really liked him for the Neptune last year, so was disappointed when he missed it.  I think he would definitely of placed behind Faugheen

Step up to 3m would be a bit of a worry for me, but as you say, we'll know more after the Cleeve and how well he stays.
By:
tomdeane
When: 12 Jan 15 18:33
Very interesting potential runner for sure, but with regard to Cole Harden, I would say the latter has improved significantly since that run and seemed to hate Ascot (don't think they're keen to run him right-handed again).

I really like Cole Harden for this - think he'll run a mighty race and has gone under the radar a bit.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 12 Jan 15 19:43
i think he is slightly under the radar tom, what price do you think he should be?? personally i think lieutenant colonel is very short considering his liking for soft going along with zarkandar who i have just never liked as an individual...

the whole race evolves around more of that for me i suppose...personally think he is the only value in the race depending on how you view value...i make him a 6/4-11/8 shot if returning to his best, which i see no reason he won't after his breathing operation, add to that the trainer appearing to turn the corner recently...i just have him a stone better than these...the two i like at a price is monksland if they could get him to the race and jetson who is just tough and just still appears to be improving at his age
By:
sintonian
When: 12 Jan 15 19:43
Can't have the trainer winning a Grade 1 race at the Festival tbh.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 12 Jan 15 19:44
harsh but fair sintonianGrin
By:
wellchief
When: 12 Jan 15 19:49
Based on At Fishers Cross position in the World Hurdle, I don't really rate the form that much.

I think we'll see a winner who didn't run in the race last year. Whether that is Lieutenant Colonel, Beat That, Cole Harden, Rock on Ruby etc.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 12 Jan 15 19:51
does beat that or cole harden go for the cleeve?
By:
cufcno1
When: 12 Jan 15 19:54
With so many doubts about a lot of them lieutenant colonel is great value !
By:
buddeliea
When: 12 Jan 15 20:03
Could argue Jetson better value, not much between him and the Colenel.
By:
CVByrne
When: 12 Jan 15 20:07
Zarkadar the standout to me, had plenty left when he was beat at Ascot over 1f further than World Hurdle distance. Idled badly and will be held onto by Sam longer at Cheltenham. It's a weak race and I find it hard to see him out of the frame.
By:
wellchief
When: 12 Jan 15 20:19
Yeah, could argue Jetson is too big and Lieutenant Colonel is too short - especially as Jetson got nearer to him over 3m than at 2m4f.

I'm hoping the LC has more improvement in him though, based on his age and is still unexposed at the trip.
By:
buddeliea
When: 12 Jan 15 20:22
Im gonna back them both Chief,ive done Jetson and will wait for LC as I think I may get bigger price at some point.
By:
sintonian
When: 12 Jan 15 20:24
Surprising how strong MOT is on here..
By:
CVByrne
When: 12 Jan 15 20:40
Jonjo back in form
By:
Tory
When: 12 Jan 15 21:11
And the fact that he's about half a stone better than anything else in the race if back to his best.

MOT is my biggest winner of the week. He's my biggest single and I've also chucked him in with a few footy doubles.

I need to and am going to cover probably 2 more but what's left is much of a muchness and I'm struggling to choose. Think I'll go with LC but do question how good he really is. Zarkandar doesn't have the correct dosage profile but he's not a million miles out.

Surely ROR isn't quite good enough anymore at 10 and Beat That hasn't had a great prep for the race, although the i thought he jumped and travelled beautifully until blowing up the other day.

You could literally throw a blanket over 5 or 6 behind MOT
By:
Benjy
When: 12 Jan 15 21:18
Harry, I agree with the Monksland shout. I've backed him at 25s and the most interesting horse here imo. Not sure they can get him back but seemed to retain reasonable amount of ability fto.

Can also see the angle of the fav shortening due to Jonjo form improving (which also gives excust for lto) and the complete lack of opposition.
By:
wellchief
When: 12 Jan 15 21:20
I thought the same about Beat That Tory.  I was hoping his price would have drifted a bit more though.

He'll be my saver after LC.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 12 Jan 15 22:40
Benji

as much as i can see why people are trying to seek value in this race i really don't see it that way with the horses that are being backed...they are purely being backed because people feel they can get more of that beat and will have a price edge if he doesn't turn up...

yes you can argue he ran like a drain first time but there were mitigating circumstances in regards ground that day, his breathing and the trainers horses at the time, plus mccoys comments after the race that the horse is a very gross horse and it will take time to get fit and that he had won a handicap off of 130 first time out the year before

of course he may not come back to form and in which case some value hunters will have nice vouchers but on the other hand if more of that does show his form pre cheltenham they have certainly not got any value...they are only the prices they are on the back of more of that running how he did first time because most of them have at least 8-10lbs to find to be competitive

in regards monksland i think he could maybe run a place but i can't entertain a bet till the day with the horse having so many problems in the past and having lost a few quid last year...he is certainly a good horse and if i was pricing him up to run tomorrow he would be near second favorite in my book

beat that is priced up on his novice form at aintree when the race just fell apart and a hard fought success in ireland that really is average in my book and he had the heart ripped out of him in that race, he also showed he is a promising horse and no more than that, he ran a promising race first time but 12/1 is borderline suicide in regards this race...he has a huge amount to find imo and not sure how much improvement people are expecting...

anyway i am happy to forgive more of that one run...what also has to be remembered in regards more of that, is he was actually just a novice really last year after just one run in a december novice the previous season, so last year was actually his first season of racing...anyway i for one will be gutted if he can't improve again this season and just hope he is ok after whacking the last at newbury...

if he doesn't come back it is a wide open race and in which case i personally will have to reevaluate the race as i couldn't possibly have a bet until i know what the crack is with the horse and his well being...will be interesting if he runs in the cleeve
By:
tomdeane
When: 13 Jan 15 09:35
HI Harry, hope things are going well mate.

In answer to your earlier question, I think Cole Harden is a 12/1 shot, which is why I couldn't resist backing him at 20s NRNB. Have even backed him each-way, which I never ordinarily do.

I completely understand the angle on More Of That, and if he is at his best then he should win again. Personally, I'm extremely worried as to whether he will be. I'm not sure about the wind issue for one (I know it happens, but I still find it odd that a horse who was unbeaten last year and won this race in great nick suddenly developed a wind problem over the summer). I thought he was very disappointing on his return, and, given that he is a gross horse that takes a lot of getting fit and improves from run to run, I don't like the fact that he'll be lining up in March on the back of only one more run, which, after the op and subsequent break, is virtually his first of the year.

I don't think the Jetson/Lieutenant Colonel form is anything special, and Zarkandar has tried and failed in this race before. Monksland is a possible, but I have been surprisingly taken by Cole Harden this year and really fancy him to hit the frame.

Loved his first-time win when he took Medinas and At Fishers Cross to the cleaners (especially as he controlled the race from the front and quickened smartly, showing a good turn of foot for a stayer and also that he was tractable in front and isn't going to pull his chance away).

Second time I thought Medinas picked up the pieces after CH did way too much too soon. I think they rode the race to beat More Of That, thinking that they had to run the legs off him to get him beaten. It worked, but they went too hard and CH fell in a hole late on.

He then had an issue before Cheltenham the last day, having a piece of birch removed from his leg, and it was only 50:50 that he'd make that race at all. They got him there and he ran a blinder, surely being the eyecatcher storming up the hill late on (finished a neck behind Vaniteux giving him 8lb and 4l behind Rock On Ruby, whose pace was too good - over 3m I'd back CH every time to overturn that form).

In short, I think he's just about the most progressive horse in the line-up and ought to go very well indeed. 20/1 looks wrong to me.
By:
Wicketd
When: 13 Jan 15 11:18
^ good post and agree
By:
harry callaghan
When: 13 Jan 15 14:40
Hi tom i'm ok, wish i was in better form punting wise but were working hard to make it turn...hows yourself?

ye i have to say i don't mind cole harden i'm just not sure he can step up again from his progressive form shown...my main concern is can he find 8/10lbs in order to win because as much as i don't particularly like most of the horses running from a form point of view he would still need to run to 165+ in order to beat the likes of zarkandar and rock on ruby for that matter...

his trainer appears to get them ready early season as well, however he is progressing and personally i think you will certainly get a run for your money on the front end... i would like to see the young jockey show a little more restrain in regards to the fractions he sets, the ride at newbury was a suicide ride imo and i don't think the horse has to ridden so aggressively as that would compromise his chances and set it up for the deep closing types of which there are plenty, so he will have to be more canny in his tactics imo otherwise he will have nothing left and the race certainly has proved a good race for closing types in the past...like you say he had a problem before his last run so that can be excused

in regards more of that i agree it seemed strange he has suddenly had a breathing problem and also agree he was very disappointing...i can certainly see the negativity in regards his chances i'm just purely basing the race around that jon jo can get him back because he has so much in hand ratings wise...

it wouldn't surprise me if he goes straight there with him as i'm not sure if the ground was to be soft in the cleeve i'm not sure they will want him to have a hard race, personally i would like to see him run but wouldn't be surprised if they dodged the race...i think the key to him is better ground even though he proved himself on soft going last season but that was from low handicap marks...anyway i agree with you in regards his non ideal preparation and he now has lots to prove but if he can return to last seasons form he will take a world of beating against these horses, can he prove that run and his other issues all wrong? i hope so

what are your thoughts on rock on ruby?? i quite like him and he is the other class horse in the race imo keep going through his races and think he has a chance to get the trip and will go there after an ideal preparation...can he get home i'm just not sure but he is settling better now...just not sure but think he has a better chance than some think...his runs this season have been on ground less than ideal and on good ground and going there fresh he has to have every chance against some of these horses...if the race was over 2m4f i'd be having a right good bet tbh
By:
Wicketd
When: 13 Jan 15 14:49
I love Rock on Ruby but just worry about the stamina. As a novice he was outstayed over 2m4f by Bobs Worth and First Lieutenant who obviously stay a lot further. He has run well twice in the Aintree Hurdle, and obviously has won twice this season over 2m4f but the opposition is a little questionable.

I think he could find himself oustayed, I wish they'd go 3m before the festival.
By:
buddeliea
When: 13 Jan 15 16:04
Think I am gonna stick with the Irish ones,and hope they prove up to the level required.
Jetson and LC will both stay well,and that's something last years beaten horses did not do so well imo.

Even if MOT comes back to that form last year,it still dont mean he will win.Different opposition this time. And theres no guarantees he will anyway.
By:
tomdeane
When: 13 Jan 15 16:39
All well here, Harry, thanks for asking! Punting form is steady if unspectacular...

I agree about the jockey angle on Cole Harden but am hoping the Newbury run really taught him a big lesson on that front. I too think he can be less aggressive and save a bit more than he has been doing. I've always liked Rock On Ruby a lot, but to be honest I can't see him quite lasting out the 3m in what will be a really true test. I certainly fancy Cole Harden to overturn the form upped in trip and with a better prep too. He was not beaten far at all by him last time and was making up serious ground having been outpaced turning in, so I think he's well within striking distance of a sufficiently high rating too.

More Of That is of course the big question, and I have full respect for him. I am, as I said before, extremely worried about him running to his best this time though. I'd not go near him without a prep run, but agree that pulling him about in testing conditions is not ideal at this stage either.

On a similar note, I think the Jonjo angle is a very interesting one this year. We all know he is a master at prepping horses for a big day, and very often his better ones don't run up to scratch earlier in the season, only to kick into gear in March. However, there's a big difference in prepping them from when they haven't really been off, or have been running in unsuitable races, to prepping them when the stable has been under a big cloud. They were in shocking nick for a good while, and appear to only just be turning the corner. I'd be less willing to jump on board the Jonjo train as usual on that basis, at least until we've seen a few of the fancied ones run better in big races.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 13 Jan 15 17:15
ye it is a fair to say jon jos have certainly been cancerous tbh...it was nice to see a not off win saturday and at least show it wasn't just his juvenile horses running well...like you say he is running out of time but it also has to be remembered through his barron spell he didn't run any good horses, so he clearly backed off most of his string bar the horse in the king george who ran quite well tbh...like you say though he is running out of time in regards prepping his good horses who must need a run before cheltenham...it will be interesting in this regard as the ground has been so bad

cole harden runs in the cleeve i think??? swear the trainer said he would go there...remind me if you know tom

more of that is tricky like you say and as you know i do try and be impartial in regards one i have backed...i just feel the race has no depth at all class wise i suppose...

they are all nice horses but not really grade 1 horses imo it would break my heart if a horse like zarkandar were to win as have never liked him betting wise tongue tie and blinkers have clearly helped him but he is a very exposed runner...at least lieutenant colonel is unexposed i just wonder how good he is and does he need soft going...jetson is exposed also but i just like his attitude (it just shows what i think of the race liking such a horse) but he is thoroughly exposed runner really...beat thats form just doesn't add up to much and i just wonder how much improvement is in him although he ran an alright trail before collapsing quicker than a cheap tent

monksland has always been a nice horse but until he gets there how can we play him...

at fishers cross is the narky one imo but has physical problems

a horrible betting race if more of that doesn't turn up imo
By:
buddeliea
When: 13 Jan 15 17:24
Hoping More of That does turn up and is well,he seems pretty popular and should help the odds on the ones I will be looking at.
Even if he don't turn up theres still some decent prices knocking about,and unlike your good self Harry,i will enjoy getting stuck into the race.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 13 Jan 15 17:35
jonjo said he may run holywell in the cleeve
By:
harry callaghan
When: 13 Jan 15 17:35
whats your opinion then buddeliea don't sit on the fence...if you can sort this handicapping nightmare out i am all ears... i will be playing some others i have no doubt in the race as long as he runs...was backing 4/5 runners a race last year tbh this race will be no different if just to balance the lob sided book i have at present
By:
wellchief
When: 13 Jan 15 17:53
I'm glad forum members are now looking into this race...I'm abit bored of the UDS and Vautour conversations now!

Re Rock on Ruby, I think he would actually get the trip now.  More of That's first attempt at 3m won him the World Hurdle as did Solwhit's.  I thought he was really unlucky in the Neptune, not necessarily outstayed.  Oscars Well last hurdle **** up left Rock on Ruby about 3 lengths clear on his own - if Oscars Well would have stayed up, RoR would have probably have won that Neptune imo.

The form lines of the Irish are hard to guage, although At Fishers Cross was comprehensively beaten by them.

More of That is a strange one for me.  Going into last years race, none of his form screamed World Hurdle winner to me, so I was surprised when he won.  I still do question the quality of last years race though.  Annie Power had been so good all season, and with her big weight allowance, I do think she didn't stay properly, and the rest of the rest were much of a muchness (except the mighty Big Bucks who was only about 30% of himself).

I think there are some good up and coming ones in the Colonel, Beat That, Cole Harden and Un Temps Pour Tout.  Can't work out which one of Beat That and UTPT to have my saver on.  It looks like UTPT will run in the Cleeve so the 20's NRNB appeals to me - if he doesn't stay I think they'll swerve the WH and money back - if he runs well, you may be on a good bet.
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