Cheltenham Festival
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***ARKLE 2015***
***ARKLE 2015***
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ive been warming to UDS for a while now, he looks the real deal, just needs to back it up now hope he runs, hope they all run
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yes very exciting horse with a bit of mystery around him I would prefer it if uds went to the arkle untested ! i.e another soft race over fences against inferior rivals ,then the unknown could be anything factor will still be there rather than a stern test before against classy rivals in which the bubble may or may not be burst !
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^ I agree - would be great fun for Cheltenham if there were at least a few of these still untested come the big day!
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Front runners don't win Arkles though
 That's the problem for me |
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I't's easy to get over excited by UDS because of how visually impressive he is, but the truth is that he is a touch out of control but because he's far superior to his rivals it hasn't cost him...an interesting thing to consider is that if other strongly fancied runners for the Arkle went into a prep race against similarly inferior horses with connections saying...right, we're going to set off and go clear of the field in this....the chances are they'd win in exactly the same way.
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Front runners don't win Arkles though
completely and utterly irrelevant |
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In what way is that an irrelevant stat please enlighten me
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what relevance does that stat have to do with this year's arkle please?
if a horse is good enough to win the race from the front then he'll win the race from the front do you think champagne fever was nabbed on the line last year because of arkle winners don't do it from the front? has absolutely no impact on his chances |
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I agree with your point in principle, Wicketd.
Many people successfully use trends to whittle down potential winners of these big races, but unless you understand why the trend exists, you can pass over horses that shouldn't be passed over. As you allude to, Champagne Fever didn't lose because he made the running, so the fact that UDS will be out in front does not mean he will get done as well. Azertyuiop made all from my memory, but then again, he was the best horse. Maybe it's just that you only have one runner in any race that can possibly make all (as one goes off in front when the tapes rise) and therefore it's not surprising that not many front-runners win the Arkle as there are many more non-front-runners in the race each year. Of course it is more complicated than that, and because Cheltenham is testing and the quality of competition is so high, it is probably harder to make all here than it is elsewhere. That said, I wouldn't be at all put off by UDS being a front-runner if I fancied him. For what it's worth, there have been stacks of winners that raced very prominently too (Champleve, Flagship Uberalles, Tidal Bay, Forpadydeplasterer, Sizing Europe, Sprinter Sacre), and there haven't, from recollection, been many out-and-out front-runners to have run in the race - can anyone recall many horses blasting out into clear leads and trying to hang on? |
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good post.
the last few years the only front-runners i can remember expected to make an impact were overturn and finians rainbow. the ground went against overturn and he made bad mistakes, and finians rainbow probably didnt want to front run as his best form was beating sizing and the melling at aintree. sprinter sacre took it up from cue card at the 4th last and cue card ran well from the front. sizing was prominent, tidal bay was prominent. UDS if good enough can win from the front. |
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Yep,cant wait to see it.
Be the sight of the festival when he goes 20 lengths clear. |
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I was just thinking, some value available in this race if - like myself - you believe Vautour will run in JLT. Josses Hill doesn't jump well enough to win, Un De Sceaux even if you are a big supporter like myself you have to admit could make a mistake or not like good ground and the track, whatever.
So that leaves? I'm not buying Clarcam, he had huge weight claim lto and Vautour ran no race. Gilgamboa surely needs 2m4f on good ground. Ptit Zig goes for JLT. So Vibrato Valtat or Sgt Reckless? I like the latter, yes he's a shade old but still he clearly is a better jumper than Josses Hill and was close up in 4th in Supreme. 25/1 seems some big value imo |
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Purely from a pocket talking point of view, if Vautour does go down the JLT, I really want Gilgamboa in the Arkle.
On paper Vautour, Valseur Lido and Ptit Zig is one hell of a trio and imo would probably be the strongest novice chase at the festival since Sprinter's Arkle, with Cue Card, Al Ferof and Menorah. If those three lined up in the JLT, the Arkle looks the much easier option. He has looked good over 2.5 this year though, so I could understand why they'd go down the JLT route. |
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Has Willie Mullins given how any indication which of Vautour or Un De Sceaux will run in the Irish Arkle? It's only 2 weeks away now so I presume he has an idea what he wants to do? There were a few posts on here saying he'd run them both however I can't see that being the case myself.
I still think Vautour should be running in the Arkle. I like Un De Sceaux purely because of his gung-ho style of racing ... I'm also drawn these horses that polarize opinion. He's exciting and interesting and we wouldn't know that much about him until the race is over. However there are a few too many if's with him right now which is off putting. Even things like the ground where Mullins has in the past been very open saying he's good on soft. If Vautour hadn't run so poorly at Leopardstown - he still came second albeit well beaten - there'd be so few questions with him. He looks a good jumper and he's been to the Festival already and won. It seems a waste to run him in the JLT. The bad run at Leopardstown though has opened up the way for some doubts. |
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The Arkle front running stat gets brought up every year ..... one I haven't read on this forum yet and I'm amazed it hasn't been brought up in the context of this race given the market leaders ..... but Ruby Walsh hasn't won a Chase at the Festival since 2009
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Who cares about that stat, what is it inferring? That Ruby Walsh isn't a good jockey over Fences at Cheltenham? That if he rode Sprinter Sacre last season he'd have got him beat?
I flipped a coin and it came up heads 7 times in a row!!! Does that mean heads is pretty much the only result I'll get when flipping that coin next time, or do I know that it's going to be 50:50 chance each time and it was just the 1/100 event happening this time? Statistical anomalies will always exist, people focus on them and quote them without ever trying to explain the underlying factor we should be inferring. |
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Un De Sceaux will not run in the Irish Arkle btw
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Surprised there has been little talk of vibrato valtat on here.
The horse has won 2 recognised trails for the race in the Henry VIII chase at Sandown won by captain Conan, al ferof, somersby and direct route and the wayward lad chase at kempton won by sprinter sacre and simonsig. He still seems to get no credit though as he is/was a bit quirky. If UDS runs and sets a fast pace the race will be run to suit. I'm not saying he is going to peg back UDS but on the whole his jumping has been good, he doesn't lack for speed so in my opinion he is a good each way bet at 20/1. The race will cut up as only one of the Mullins horses will run, he isn't going to run both, so you can probably take Vautour or UDS out. Clarcam and gilgamboa will probably both run, but they could be ruled out with a bad run in the Irish arkle. Josses hill didn't jump well enough for me, he only just managed to beat solar impulse, who isn't going to be better than a handicapper in my opinion. So half the odds with jumping question marks looks a bit silly to me. The other horse I would give a mention to is three kingdoms, who ran well against vibrato valtat. He could get outpaced though. Anyway everyone has their opinions, so good luck no matter who you back. |
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What will he run un de sceaux in then Cv ?
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I'm not saying it's inferring anything. It was quite a popular one last year leading up to the Festival amongst forumites and I'm surprised we haven't heard it quoted that much this season.
Is it your belief that Un De Sceaux won't run in the Irish Arkle or has Mullins stated this? |
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Can't be a great prep for Sgt Reckless - one run over fences, one over hurdles and 1m 4f on the all weather at lingfield
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Yeh,backed him ages ago,but flat race at this stage?? and xmas hurdle as his previous race,all rather strange.
Well if hes an Arkle horse it is anyway. |
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Un De Sceaux will go for another weakish race before the Arkle. Mullins knows it matters little to him as he front runs anyway it's just jumping experience he needs. I doubt he'll go for the Flyingbolt though as that's too close to Cheltenham and he puts a lot into his races.
I'd love UDS to travel to England for a race next but it's unlikely |
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Sorry my opinion that UDS won't go for Irish Arkle btw. Reasons are Vautour has been already nominated for the race and Mullins won't run both.
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So why would he step Vautour up half a mile for cheltenham cv
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I haven't seen anything saying that Vautour would run in the Irish Arkle? Has Mullins said this?
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They have said it for a while mate
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Not that I've seen, have you a link?
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cufcno1
So why would he step Vautour up half a mile for cheltenham cv Un De Sceaux can only go for one race, the Arkle. Vautour can go for either the Arkle or the JLT. Ruby will want to ride both, both will likely be fav's for both races (if Vautour bounces back to win Irish Arkle and UDS wins nto). Also there is the feeling that they owe O'Connell for agreeing to skip the Champion hurdle last season to allow Hurricane Fly the best chance possible to win a 3rd Champion hurdle. |
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Cv surely they would want to give it a spin over the trip then before it,do you not think 2 and a half on the new course takes some getting,imagine if the ground is soft,more like a 3 mile chase,they would look stupid,has rich ricci not said all along the arkle is Vautour's target,if the ground has good in it on the Tuesday would un de sceaux even run?
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Yep,all makes sense CV,although I still hope Vautour and UDS run in Arkle.
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Ground will be at best good/soft so UDS should definitely run,he's form on good/soft in his bumper,plus I expect him to be fine on better ground,anyway.......why not. Horses tend to run quicker on better ground,especially speed horses.Soft ground may well help his chances of winning the race as it will slow down others that don't act so well,but I still expect him to line up should it be normal Tuesday going. As for Vautour,they already know he will stay further ok.
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It wouldn't matter too much about Vautour not having a chase of 2m4f before the Festival if the JLT is the aim imo.
Cooldine had never had a 3m chase, and then won the RSA; Solwhit had never had a 3m hurdle and then won the World Hurdle, Peddlers had been kept to 2m1f and less and then won the Neptune. Sometimes the first try at a new distance brings about improvement, so might as well do it at the Festival. Still think he should go the Arkle though! |
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cufcno - Mullins has a record of running his horses over shorter trips in Ireland to help teach them to jump at the pace they'll go at Cheltenham. 2m race on soft ground in Ireland is about 2m4f pace for g2s at Cheltenham.
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Ok then,if Vautour won the jlt and beat valsuer lido do you think oleary would be pleased,think he would rather keep him onside rather than O'Connell,even though I can't have that argument about them owing him one !
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I'm not saying Vautour should go for JLT btw, I don't bother opining on things I've no control over. I focus on where horses will run. With Vautour and Shaneshill I'd only go with to win any race (which I've backed both for). Because even if Vautour was all set for the JLT, what if UDS missed Cheltenham, Mullins would surely switch Vautour to the Arkle as he has no runner in that case. These kind of things, permutations need to be taken into account.
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As I have said in past cv you know more than me about the stable,I just think it's ridiculous,how stupid will mullins look if Vautour fades up the hill !
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Btw I've backed shaneshill for the supreme as I felt it was outstayed in the bumper last year,or was it outpaced lol
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Vautour looked fine to me when beating the likes of Apache stronghold and Lieut colonel over 2and a half m last year. They know he will stay.
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I think owners are more in demand of Mullins than he is of them tbh. Rich Ricci is retired and has buckets of cash, Mullins just needs to keep finding the right horses and he'll have owners to buy them. He doesn't have to worry. O'Leary, Wylies, Ricci's all want horses with him, even JP is getting some quality ones with him too.
He's always said when it comes to Cheltenham he will place his team in the races which give him the best chance of having winners. So he keeps his best horses apart and he avoids the best opposition if he has a choice. Boston Bob went for the AB to specifically avoid Simonsig. He said that. Add to that Ruby will want a good ride in each race. All this will result in UDS and Vautour never race eachother. |