Cheltenham Festival
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dilemma for ruby ?
dilemma for ruby ?
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With regards HF,i think it best to look at his form come the Spring then his form in Ireland during the wet winter.
How on earth is he going to be any better at his age come March than he was last March? He weren't injured as far as I know. He will be facing 2 horses that beat him last March,and 2 that will probably be still on the up. |
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Straight off the page i read HFs form as 11342 on g/s or faster (otherwise 11 wins) and Jezki as 31242 on soft or slower (otherwise 4 wins). Wont argue that Jezki gives more on fast and HF more on slow but I just dont see that or the two races last spring as conclusive proof that Jezki has the upper hand in the next champion hurdle. Maybe Jezki was in the form of his life last spring. Maybe Hurricane wasnt but everyone assumes his age has caught up with him. Maybe Jezkis hood loses some of its effect. Maybe it rains next March.
Maybe HF really cant win it again but just seems like the result 2 weeks ago has somehow confirmed peoples understanding to the point where the race wasnt just irrelevant, it actually REASSURES them that HF cant win next March! |
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Well for me personally,it's all about next March,not the race the other day. I expect fly to run well this winter as he normally does. Come March I expect him to be no better than he was last March.
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 @ anyone thinkin ruby would get on HF for sentiment in a CH, and desert something he considers to have a better chance. 364 days to their first birthday. |
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Graeme83 I'm with you,I think he would choose faugheen but I could easily see hf winning again over 2 in ireland !
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I don't think the fly will even come to chelts, the main aim with him is to win these winter grade 1,s on soft
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Cheltenham will not be the main target for Fly this year (just opinion) - Ruby would ride Faugheen if he went to Cheltenham unbeaten anyway without a doubt.
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 If you lot had your way, Kauto, Tidal Bay, waste of time, shouldnt have retired Istabraq why bother with the 3rd one? Best Mate, Moscow flyer - that was a serious waste of effort, didnt even win the 3rd one, Red Rum - too much weight should have stayed at home. Sprinter sacre got beat last year, probably time he went in the ryanair. |
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If he stays in good form and wins the winter races in Ireland, I think they will aim him at the Champion again. Why wouldnt you?
And Ruby will have a massive decision. Think he would go for Faugheen but dont think he would find it easy myself. |
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shockster 26 Nov 14 14:47 Joined: 26 Oct 05 | Topic/replies: 1,402 | Blogger: shockster's blog
Hurricane Fly will run wherever the Riccis decide and yes I know they don't own him, but the stable revolves around there horses. Are you serious!! That is such a massively incorrect view. Ricci horses have had to move aside for Fly constantly. Even this season Faugheen doesn't get to go for all the big 2 mile races as Fly has first dibs. |
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Well you are talking about Hurricane Fly the flag bearer of the yard for last few years CV,doubt their are too many others in the yard that would get preference over Ricci owned ones.
There are a few people I know who are thinking Ricci is ruling the roost in the yard,what do you think mate? you seem to have the yard sussed as much as anyone. |
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I doubt he rules the roost in the yard. He probably has a hard enough time, in a non serious way, of getting his own way with his own horses, let alone dictating where other peoples horses go. His misses and mullins probably give him a run for his money when it comes to discussing targets. Throw ruby and patrick into the equation, and you can definitely struggle to see him getting his own way all the time. After a novice hurdling season, you don't have many races to get it right for their second season. Things can chop and change because many of their horses are adaptable distance wise, and have quality. Then you look at other big owners with mullins, and it must be real difficult trying to appease all the owners. It would be daft to not keep on side with the folks with good horses.
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Sint,
No IF's, BUT's or WHY's whatsoever...Jockey arrangements will be decided the night before jockey declarations (fact). If Ruby has a choice of a few fit & well horses (assuming he makes it ok himself) - only at that stage will he decide to ride HF. Until then.....ridiculous thread, waste of time, no dilemma, duffy's right, just more noise - all apply. 16Nov14 Pun 16S 4y+ H(80K) 11-10[15/8] 1st of 5, 2.25L to Jezki R Walsh 165 02May14 Pun 16GY 4y+ H(200K) 11-12[1/1] 2nd of 3, 3.25L behind Jezki R Walsh 169 11Mar14 Che 16GS 4y+ H(418K) 11-10[11/4F] 4th of 9, 5.00L behind Jezki R Walsh 173 1 26Jan14 Leo 16SH 4y+ H(110K) 11-10[4/7F] 1st of 4, 1.5L to Our Conor R Walsh 175 29Dec13 Leo 16S 4y+ H(100K) 11-10[11/10F] 1st of 5, 2.5L to Jezki R Walsh 175 17Nov13 Pun 16Y 4y+ H(80K) 11-10[1/16F] 1st of 5, 1.25L to Marito R Walsh 175 26Apr13 Pun 16H 4y+ H(200K) 11-12[1/4F] 1st of 6, 7L to Thousand Stars R Walsh 173 12Mar13 Che 16S 4y+ H(400K) 11-10[13/8F] 1st of 9, 2.5L to Rock On Ruby R Walsh 172 1 27Jan13 Leo 16SH 4y+ H(110K) 11-10[1/6F] 1st of 5, 5L to Thousand Stars R Walsh 173 29Dec12 Leo 16S 4y+ H(85K) 11-10[1/5F] 1st of 5, 7L to Unaccompanied R Walsh 173 18Nov12 Pun 16H 4y+ H(80K) 11-10[2/5F] 1st of 3, Captain Cee Bee R Walsh 173 27Apr12 Pun 16H 4y+ H(160K) 11-12[4/11F] 1st of 4, 2.5L to Zaidpour R Walsh 173 13Mar12 Che 16G 4y+ H(370K) 11-10[4/6F] 3rd of 10, 5.50L behind Rock On Ruby R Walsh 173 1 29Jan12 Leo 16H 4y+ H(110K) 11-10[4/5F] 1st of 5, 6.5L to Oscars Well R Walsh 173 06May11 Pun 16G 4y+ H(160K) 11-12[1/2F] 1st of 6, 5L to Thousand Stars R Walsh 172 15Mar11 Che 16G 4y+ H(370K) 11-10[11/4F] 1st of 11, 1.25L to Peddlers Cross R Walsh 1 23Jan11 Leo 16S 4y+ H(110K) 11-10[4/9F] 1st of 5, 3.5L to Solwhit P Townend 166 29Dec10 Leo 16H 4y+ H(12K) 11-10[8/11F] 1st of 5, 2.5L to Solwhit P Townend 166 15Dec10 Fai 20S 4y+ H(85K) 11-10[11/4] 1st of 11, 1.5L to Solwhit P Townend 166 23Apr10 Pun 16G 4y+ H(170K) 11-12[3/1] 1st of 11, nk to Solwhit P Townend 157 15Nov09 Pun 16H 4y+ H(85K) 11-10[8/13F] 3rd of 4, 3.50L behind Solwhit P Townend 157 28Apr09 Pun 16S 5y+ H(100K) 11-12[4/6F] 1st of 8, 7L to Kempes R Walsh 157 15Feb09 Leo 18S 5y+ H(90K) non-runner (lame) 27Dec08 Leo 16YS 4y+ H(80K) 11-7[1/1F] 1st of 7, 10L to Go Native P Townend 30Nov08 Fai 16S 4y+ H(90K) 11-7[2/1F] 1st of 8, nk to Donnas Palm P Townend 07May08 Pun 16G 4-5y MdnHdl(12K) 11-4[9/10F] 1st of 22, 12L to Afasheen R Walsh 28Jul07 Mai 10GS 3y F(115K) 9-2[15/1] 7th of 7, 0 behind Harland J Victoire |
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Most champion hurdle wins = 3 (Hattons grace, Sir Ken, Persian War, Sea You then, Istabraq)
Oldest winner = 11yo (Hattons grace, Sea Pigeon) HF current form = just beat last years champion Potential opposition = beatable Of course there is a long way to go but at this moment, 28/11/14, if Walsh/Mullins default plan A position isnt to run HF and reroute fuagheen then that just isnt sport imo. Aiming faugheen as plan B = perfectly sensible Sorry, ill shut up now |
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Ruby was on the Morning Line earlier and answered a tweet regarding this. He said whichever horse looked in the best shape on the Sunday before the festival is the horse he would ride - all sentiment goes out of the window.
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I think it's worth remembering that Paul Townend will get the ride on any Mullins second string and he's no bad substitute. I can see too many complaining if he was to end up on either Faugheen or Hurricane Fly in a Champion Hurdle.
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Everything on the line again for HF today
If he loses then all but ends his chance of glory in March. If he wins (as many expect him to) then its keeping the dream alive which keeps Ruby on board imo Still loving HFs champion hurdle price |
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Personally i cant see why fly wouldn't run on the Churdle at Cheltenham, different owners to Faugheen and surely they can't dictate simply on jockey decisions. Yes a difficult decision but am sure Ruby will choose the 21 grade 1 winner over the up and coming and there are plenty other decent jockeys out there to choose from. If i was Willie Mullins though i would take away the decision from Ruby and just tell him who he's riding, i.e the fly. Especially after that.
This is the way i see it Faugheen Ruby Wlash, Mr p.w mullins, Townend ?? TNO - STD Jezki - Mccoy Hurricane Fly Ruby likeliest imo but also Mr p.w mullins, Townend ?? |
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DOES HE NEED TO GO TO CHELTENHAM ...AINTREE?
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Who? Faugheen?
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I still don't think he'll go to cheltenham. There's no need now - just mop up winter G1's in Ireland
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Most champion hurdle wins and oldest winner. Plenty of reason to go.
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WPM just said HF us still their number one CH horse
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BE FUNNY AS FECK IF FLY WON AND RUBY WAS ON FAUGHEEN
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Had todays race have been at Cheltenham Arctic Fire might have beaten both. Unless the going gets very soft I would bet that Ruby rides Faugheen at Cheltenham. His price has in fact tightened after that.
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The Fly is a remarkable horse he really is. 4 or 5 years now he has been the champion hurdler and is trying to be champ again this year. Ultra consistent.
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Unless he runs poorly in the meantime I'll be amazed if Ruby doesn't ride Faugheen.
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Seathestars I thought this was the worst thread you have ever had the misfortune to read,yet here you are commenting on it again,ruby has a massive dilemma imo
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I still think it is a bad thread to be honest and think my theory above is exactly what will happen if they all get there in good form
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Harrington: "He seemed to be fine after the race so, all being well, we'll head on to Cheltenham and hope the hill will make a little bit of a difference."
Does that mean Jezki wont run again? Hope so as thats a better chance of HF going into March unbeaten. If faugheen camp cant find a race against TNO before March then even better. |
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STS I agree.
Ruby Walsh will ride either Faugheen or Hurricane Fly. |
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The Fly runs in the Irish Champion Hurdle on Sunday 25th January, will miss Cheltenham and will be aimed at one last big race at Punchestown in April. Therefore, there will not be a dilemma for Ruby.
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brandyontherocks • December 29, 2014 2:33 PM GMT
The Fly is a remarkable horse he really is. 4 or 5 years now he has been the champion hurdler and is trying to be champ again this year. Ultra consistent GREAT POST |
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Ruby is going to ride a 14/1 shot over the 6/4 fav in the CH? Not a hope in hell unless Faugheen doesn't perform leading up to the race. imo.
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The fly won't be in first 4 at Cheltenham if he decided to go and if u think he would win it more fool you. Don't get me.wrong he won some races but the races he did win at Cheltenham haven't been the greatest and anytime its.a.good gallop at Cheltenham he's been found wantwanting AMD this years race a stronger race than last years, if he does go over he's just making number up! If ruby pick hurricane over faugheen then the falls has had more affect that he's letting on! I agree joke of a thread its a no brainer
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This years race a stronger race than last years
Can't have that at all. Last year: MTOY, The New One, Jezki, Our Conor, Hurricane Fly. Pretty formidable line up. |
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If HF turns up and is fit and well absolutely no way is he a 14/1 shot. He will be half those odds as 4th fav and could even get backed into 3rd or even 2nd favoritism on the day due to his massive following and a reason why i have been laying Faugheen every time he gets below 2.4 on here, not laying off my 7/4, just merely playing the market, if i get stuck with a lay, so be it, will only be half my stake i have at 7/4
Just my opinion of course. |
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Mck30en I don't think anything will beat faugheen but what I said a the start of this thread will happen,ruby is going to have to make the hardest call of his career,I've called it on the 16th november,you might not see it coming but some people see things before they happen,that's what gives you an edge lol
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Must admit that having watched WPM's interview when I got back from work, I was quite surprised at how he spoke and also his body language. It would be madness to me for Ruby to be on anything but Faugheen but, I do fear slightly that the sentimentally towards HF in the yard is much much greater than previously thought. There's also a precedent for Ruby thinking horses can come back in the case of Kauto Star with his Betfair Chase and KG wins. Still think he'll end up on Faugheen but the call will be much closer than their respective odds in the market
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Some twenty two visits to the collect window I would imagine generates quite a bit of sentimentality tbf. He has been a dream horse and is heading for 2 million in winnings.
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