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What can you say about last seasons race, bitter dissappointment. Death of Our Conor, hampering of The New One, good ground and the pace of the race exposing Flys age, MTOY still way too keen and Jezki wins. Not the race we were all hoping for sadly and this seasons renewal is hardly exciting me at this stage, obviously we’re missing three big names in Our Conor, most likely Fly & the injured MTOY.
So one look at the antepost market and you see some nonsense prices of the top 3 in the betting. The New One and Faugheen both 7/2 in October, Jezki 5/1. Terrible prices on offer there.
First off I don’t think The New One would have won the race, yes he was hampered but he was outpaced at a key point and ran on at the death when the race was over while his jumping remains a serious problem. Also his 2 grade 1 victories have come at further than 2 miles. He’s by a chasing sire and I think he’ll lose even more speed this season. So when he is a best priced 7/2 it’s easy to overlook him for this race.
Faugheen is another who has some issues jumping a hurdle, but the faster he goes the better he jumps. He was visually impressive at Punchestown but he was surely the freshest horse in the race having only 3 facile runs prior to Cheltenham. 7/2 best price about him is also not much antepost value.
Jezki needs good ground and that strong end to end gallop to be seen at his best. So as his trainer said he is vulnerable in these soft ground slower run contests in Ireland. That combined with the underrating of his victory to begin with – despite breaking the track record – he is one who will drift from his current price as people fall over themselves to back the New One as he wins nothing races in England. While Faugheen has the Mullins effect and will also be very popular in antepost markets.
So the top 3 in the market are no value antepost for this. But where the top of the market is crowded (62% book in October!) it leaves some value down below.
So where to look for antepost value. Well stick with horses placed in previous years Supreme, 5yos placed in the Champion, Neptune winners, Triumph Hurdle winners and of course the reigning Champ.
Hardy Eustace – 1st Neptune
Hardy Eustace – 1st Champion Hurdle
Brave Inca – 1st Supreme
Sublimity – 4th Supreme
Katchit – 1st Triumph
Punjabi – 3rd Champion
Binocular – 3rd Champion
Hurricane Fly – Missed Supreme
Rock on Ruby – 2nd Neptune
Hurricane Fly – 3rd Champion
Jezki – 3rd Supreme
Punjabi & Binocular were placed in the Champion as 5yo and won as 6yo. Rock on Ruby is a proxy winner of the Neptune given the photo finish. With the exception of the 6 year olds Punjabi & Binocular, and the repeat wins of Hurricane Fly & Hary Eustace all the remaining winners were 2nd season hurdlers.
So that would throw up a shortlist of Jezki, Faugheen, Vaniteux & Tiger Roll. It would rule out TNO, but you have to factor in he was hampered and has an excuse for not winning last seasons race. While Irving was sick according to Nicholls after the Supreme flop and he could fall into the category of Hurrucane Fly in relation to the Supreme. Also Analifet was highly rated Triumph horse for Mullins but missed out through injury.
So I’ve explained why the top 3 in the betting are not antepost propositions, so that leaves me with three. Vaniteux came a good 3rd in the Supreme when Henderson & Geraghty thought he should skip the festival as he wasn’t ready for it. He’s reported to have strengthened for the summer and is kept hurdling this season. Tiger Roll was a good winner of the Triumph and triumph winners in recent years have a very good record in the Champion Hurdle, with 1 win, 1 2nd, 2 3rds a 5th and Our Conors fall from past the 6 runners. Irving was coughing after his Supreme flop and was put away for the season, but he was impressive and unbeaten going into the race for which he was joint favourite and he can’t be written off as a result.
Aside from those 7 mentioned the division lacks much depth to my eyes. Right now you can go back Vaniteaux 33/1, Irivng 33/1, Tiger Roll 25/1 all e/w and come out with a profit if any one of them even places. I think they do offer some great value and have backed all the on the nose. With a view to adding Jezki post soft ground slow run race defeats in Ireland.
http://jumpsadviser.com/cheltenham/champion-hurdle/
@cvbyrne
So one look at the antepost market and you see some nonsense prices of the top 3 in the betting. The New One and Faugheen both 7/2 in October, Jezki 5/1. Terrible prices on offer there.
First off I don’t think The New One would have won the race, yes he was hampered but he was outpaced at a key point and ran on at the death when the race was over while his jumping remains a serious problem. Also his 2 grade 1 victories have come at further than 2 miles. He’s by a chasing sire and I think he’ll lose even more speed this season. So when he is a best priced 7/2 it’s easy to overlook him for this race.
Faugheen is another who has some issues jumping a hurdle, but the faster he goes the better he jumps. He was visually impressive at Punchestown but he was surely the freshest horse in the race having only 3 facile runs prior to Cheltenham. 7/2 best price about him is also not much antepost value.
Jezki needs good ground and that strong end to end gallop to be seen at his best. So as his trainer said he is vulnerable in these soft ground slower run contests in Ireland. That combined with the underrating of his victory to begin with – despite breaking the track record – he is one who will drift from his current price as people fall over themselves to back the New One as he wins nothing races in England. While Faugheen has the Mullins effect and will also be very popular in antepost markets.
So the top 3 in the market are no value antepost for this. But where the top of the market is crowded (62% book in October!) it leaves some value down below.
So where to look for antepost value. Well stick with horses placed in previous years Supreme, 5yos placed in the Champion, Neptune winners, Triumph Hurdle winners and of course the reigning Champ.
Hardy Eustace – 1st Neptune
Hardy Eustace – 1st Champion Hurdle
Brave Inca – 1st Supreme
Sublimity – 4th Supreme
Katchit – 1st Triumph
Punjabi – 3rd Champion
Binocular – 3rd Champion
Hurricane Fly – Missed Supreme
Rock on Ruby – 2nd Neptune
Hurricane Fly – 3rd Champion
Jezki – 3rd Supreme
Punjabi & Binocular were placed in the Champion as 5yo and won as 6yo. Rock on Ruby is a proxy winner of the Neptune given the photo finish. With the exception of the 6 year olds Punjabi & Binocular, and the repeat wins of Hurricane Fly & Hary Eustace all the remaining winners were 2nd season hurdlers.
So that would throw up a shortlist of Jezki, Faugheen, Vaniteux & Tiger Roll. It would rule out TNO, but you have to factor in he was hampered and has an excuse for not winning last seasons race. While Irving was sick according to Nicholls after the Supreme flop and he could fall into the category of Hurrucane Fly in relation to the Supreme. Also Analifet was highly rated Triumph horse for Mullins but missed out through injury.
So I’ve explained why the top 3 in the betting are not antepost propositions, so that leaves me with three. Vaniteux came a good 3rd in the Supreme when Henderson & Geraghty thought he should skip the festival as he wasn’t ready for it. He’s reported to have strengthened for the summer and is kept hurdling this season. Tiger Roll was a good winner of the Triumph and triumph winners in recent years have a very good record in the Champion Hurdle, with 1 win, 1 2nd, 2 3rds a 5th and Our Conors fall from past the 6 runners. Irving was coughing after his Supreme flop and was put away for the season, but he was impressive and unbeaten going into the race for which he was joint favourite and he can’t be written off as a result.
Aside from those 7 mentioned the division lacks much depth to my eyes. Right now you can go back Vaniteaux 33/1, Irivng 33/1, Tiger Roll 25/1 all e/w and come out with a profit if any one of them even places. I think they do offer some great value and have backed all the on the nose. With a view to adding Jezki post soft ground slow run race defeats in Ireland.
http://jumpsadviser.com/cheltenham/champion-hurdle/
@cvbyrne
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Im not sure it matters if New One didn't or couldnt go with them, fact remains that he lost more lengths than he was bear last season. Goosd Luck. Howdi
Im not a fan of Jezki outside cheltenham but he is 2.3 to place, out of all the contenders he is the most likely to place imo.
TNO looking mighty shaky in the market this morning 
I fear a non runner is about to be announced as Faugheen shortening, Jezki only staying where he is due to the level of money sitting laying/backing but that will soon be cancelled off if the worst news I at least think is about to be published comes to fruition 
Be a real shame if misses race,havent backed him and wont but would
diminish the race greatly if not showing.
diminish the race greatly if not showing.
christ that didnt look good - hope its just someone messing about!
There's £25 at 5.4 to back. Would've been gobbled up if was out!!!!! It is weird though
I was just about to post i think the panic is over as think it is actually just the market beginning to form properly, then i looked on the place market
Will me £2 at 4 get matched i wonder
Will me £2 at 4 get matched i wonder
Will Aitkenhead @willaitkenhead 2h2 hours ago
@samtwiston Morning Sam, just checking if everything is okay with The New One? How is he?
Sam Twiston-Davies @samtwiston 34m34 minutes ago
@willaitkenhead Yep he's all good
@samtwiston Morning Sam, just checking if everything is okay with The New One? How is he?
Sam Twiston-Davies @samtwiston 34m34 minutes ago
@willaitkenhead Yep he's all good
^ I actually wondered that - reminded me a bit of the Ballycasey drift last year.
Of course possible that it was just bots and twitchy layers, but it seems likely that something happened but he's obviously not sick or injured as the price would have boomed out and stayed there. A schooling fall, or getting rid of his jock might have led to some concern but nothing more than that. All pure speculation of course but you get the feeling that something happened...
Of course possible that it was just bots and twitchy layers, but it seems likely that something happened but he's obviously not sick or injured as the price would have boomed out and stayed there. A schooling fall, or getting rid of his jock might have led to some concern but nothing more than that. All pure speculation of course but you get the feeling that something happened...
oh the wonder of twitter thanks @samtwiston, panic over 
No probs....schooled as per usual this morning.....that explains the drift then
who knows what causes these drifts it happened with Douvan, it happened with SS earlier in the season, maybe a bigger punter didn't fancy it laid all the ask price and then the peanuts went and suddenly it looks like a significant drift.
There's a lump available at 4.6. He was 4.1 - 4.4 for weeks. I can't believe there was all that much matched at 5.0-plus
this morning. It's hard to tell from the graph, but it looks like small sums. Someone still reckons he's a nonner, imo.
As I mentioned elsewhere, someone knew Aurore D'Estruval wasn't going in the OLBG. She'd been friendless for days.
this morning. It's hard to tell from the graph, but it looks like small sums. Someone still reckons he's a nonner, imo.
As I mentioned elsewhere, someone knew Aurore D'Estruval wasn't going in the OLBG. She'd been friendless for days.
Some real money backing up on Faugheen now. I reckon someone knows TNO isn't coming out to play.
The money sitting on faugheen right now i would presume to be a bookies trying to keep price down. If so, chances of seeing mega offers on him are now unlikely.
CV, bearing in my your opening post on this race, at what point did you get 4/1 on Faugheen?
8 runners lining up, a small but select field. Be interesting to see which one will make the pace, would like to see Jezki ridden fairly aggresively
McCoy has been given strict instructions to take it up 2 out and stretch them from there on in...that's if the horse is able to.....I hope he is
good, I don't see the point of all this cat and mouse, the horse won well in last years CH, should know he has the stamina to strech the others. As long as he is in the first three il be happy which looks a little bit more likely considering the 8 that have turned up!
Will they now use Kitten Rock as a pacemaker as Plinth has been withdrawn and not good enough to take em along fast enough?
They'd be mad to not at least try to mess with faugheen, fire him up, get his jumping at it, get him going a bit quicker than even he wants to....chances are it won't work but they must try.
Big fan of the fly and I agree with most of you comments that he seems to get outpaced over 2mile on good ground, Just a thought but would it not be conceivable to think the fly could make the running ?
I'd say kitten rock will set the pace and Jezki will attempt to wind it up from 2 out as he did last year. Where Faugheen comes into the equation is anyone's guess. I'd say he will run upsides Jezki from the second last and the race will be won by the best horse from there. Last year Jezki stole a length or two of a march on MTOY from the second last but the gap was down to a neck and closing at the line. MTOY would be seen as more of a speed horse but stayed on just as strongly as Jezki. TNO will probably be outpaced but eventually stay on as I doubt if he is capable of a sustained acceleration for 2-3 furlongs. Arctic Fire could well be staying on at the end also coming off the pace. A lot of imponderables and the small field should leave tactics even more important.
Mar 4, 2015 -- 4:44PM, duffy wrote:
They'd be mad to not at least try to mess with faugheen, fire him up, get his jumping at it, get him going a bit quicker than even he wants to....chances are it won't work but they must try.
But who is going to be the sacrificial lamb to want to do this without affecting their own chances? Kitten Rock possibly.
Just watched the video and jumping the 3rd from last Jezki and MTOY jump the hurdle virtually at the same time, making the turn Jezki has got a better spot and he leads half a length from MTOY going into the 2nd last, jumping the last he certainly gains a bit more than the final winning margin. MTOY can count himself slightly unfortunate not to win. Certainly think something of the same should be the riding style from AP this time round on Jezki.
Got to be Kitten really.
Whilst having a few wins against its name doesnt have a realistic chance of winning. Jezki can take a tug and Plinth wasnt up to the job @ Leopardstown
Looking forward to a strongly run event (hopefully)
Whilst having a few wins against its name doesnt have a realistic chance of winning. Jezki can take a tug and Plinth wasnt up to the job @ Leopardstown
Looking forward to a strongly run event (hopefully)
@Geoff m, yeah hopefully a strongly run race, I can see Faugheen being ridden fairly handily, I am not sure I agree he will be held up for a turn of pace, this is a horse that won the Neptune leading from three out.
Think i was quoted in saying since the entries were made that the pace wont be anywhere near as fierce as it was last year. Now the decs are in and only 8 are left, whose going to take them along at that suicidal pace now? We all new plinth wasn't capable.
1st-Faugheen-in front throughout,kicked on bend,not extended,eased down near finish, impressive,the new one-hit 2nd and 5th,outpaced ,nearest finish,jezki-not fluent 1st,hit 5th,ran on 1 paced,5L,1L, 4th hurricane fly
The fact that there is no obvious pacemaker in the race means that it could also force Faugheen to have to make the running himself from start to finish. Whilst he has done it before in novice company I don't think it is something that has been done successfully too often in championship races. I'd say the other main contenders will be happy enough for him to give them a tow and have him make the running, then take it up from 2 out and test how good he really is. If it comes down to a sprint finish over a couple of furlongs off a sedate pace it will bring TNO into play and possibly even the fly. Considering Mullins love for the fly will he be happy to see a slower pace and a greater chance for the fly?
Trigger, there will be plenty who agree with you but i dont think HF wants a sprint off anymore. Clocked his fastest time round the course last year but couldnt live with the younger horses pace on that ground after they got a bit of a breather at the top of the course. Loose tactics imo..
Faugheen - could make all but would prefer to take most hurdles in his own time and then batter through the last two.
TNO - would love a slow pace and sprint off
The fly - wants a strong pace on slower ground, hope it unsettles TNO/Faugheen and then eyeball Jezki. If its fast ground hes screwed whatever.
Jezki - Difficult if it isnt fast ground. Wants a strong pace to pressure TNO and faugheen but will be wary of HF. If he gets fast ground then HF less of a worry and wants same as last year (obviously!).
Faugheen - could make all but would prefer to take most hurdles in his own time and then batter through the last two.
TNO - would love a slow pace and sprint off
The fly - wants a strong pace on slower ground, hope it unsettles TNO/Faugheen and then eyeball Jezki. If its fast ground hes screwed whatever.
Jezki - Difficult if it isnt fast ground. Wants a strong pace to pressure TNO and faugheen but will be wary of HF. If he gets fast ground then HF less of a worry and wants same as last year (obviously!).
Seems like the CH is the one race every year in which everybody seems to know how it will unfold. It's been the same for a few years and it's never gone really gone as expected.
Great comment, ben. Pointless to speculate in such detail. Though the idea of Kitten Rock being sacrificed seems strange to me. Always been held up and can't see any reason why Faugheen would not make the running.
I'll be amazed if Kitten Rock doesn't make the running. If he doesn't then Ruby will get his own way up front and they'd be mad to allow that.
These non-runners playing into the hands of TNO......... BYE,BYE field if he is near them turning for home.......... the best finisher up the Cheltenham hill of this lot. And good to soft yes please. Now Sam no panicking coming down to the last just pop it and the horse will do the rest.
i think sam will be too worried about making sure he stays with faugheen that he'll sacrifice his own chance. the new one is a stalker who comes to win races at the last. faugheen will take it up much earlier and try to draw away.
i do not think the new one is tactically versatile enough to deal with faugheen's running style
i do not think the new one is tactically versatile enough to deal with faugheen's running style
Based on how he finished last year if TNO is upsides at the last I'd fancy him to win the race but I can't see the race developing into a straight out sprint from there. At worst Jezki will take it up from 2 out and Faugheen may well want to turn on the gas even earlier. Then STD will have a decision to make. Go with the 2 strong stayers who can sustain a prolonged effort and run the risk of blowing up completely or pace the horse for one big maximum effort closer to home in the hope of closing the gap and swooping late.
I agree, that's a danger, if Faugheen and Jezki go for it 2 out and the new ons is on the bit in behind he could pick the pieces up. but my view is that faugheen will be in front of jezki 2 out (jezki ridden), and if walsh is cruising, faugheen wins as he likes.
I have a suspicion that Arctic Fire and even Hurricane Fly will be ridden to be placed. If Faugheen is the machine that some think he could be, and both TNO and Jezki go with him from about 3 out (they will have no choice but to go if they have winning aspirations imo) and find out they can't stay with him therefore paying the price late on, we could well see a Mullins 1-2-3.
I cannot see Hurricane Fly winning, just for the fact, that it had a ridicously hard race, when it won the Irish Champion Hurdle, on a course it loves and that will have taken alot out of a horse that is now 11 yrs old. The next oldest horse in this race is 7 years old. 11 year olds, don't win the Champion Hurlde, Jezki was 2nd in the Irish Champion Hurdle and was travelling well coming to the last and was outbattled by HF, however, it did not have a hard race. The New One fits, all the trends, as does Faugheen.
Looks like JP has opened his wallet all the 5s gone and a boat load on here backing up.
Plenty of money for Jezki today. His biggest price is now 9/2 and yet the bookies have lengthened neither TNO or Faugheen accordingly. Looks like anyone hoping for a corresponding Faugheen drift to 7/4 - 2/1 will be disappointed.
Wont happen till day of the race trigg.
Collectively betting to best price of around 110% that will close in to around 101/2% ish on day of race.
Not gonna shove it out yet when still betting NRNB no rule 4 in event of Non Runner
Collectively betting to best price of around 110% that will close in to around 101/2% ish on day of race.
Not gonna shove it out yet when still betting NRNB no rule 4 in event of Non Runner
Simple faugheen to win the new one to place.
Onto next race with a tidy profit.
Onto next race with a tidy profit.
TNO - would love a slow pace and sprint off
Disagree, if it's slow then when they step it up later the exact same thing will happen to him as it would earlier in the race, he'll get outpaced.
He will get outpaced, he'll have to take that particular hit and hope that he isn't too far behind when he begins to pick them back up.
His ideal race would be one where they go very quick but he doesn't get involved in it and they kill themselves earlier than they should, giving him plenty of race left to pick them up from.
Trace in which ROR killed the front runners around him leaving the fly to stay on past dead horses would be an ideal race for TNO.
Disagree, if it's slow then when they step it up later the exact same thing will happen to him as it would earlier in the race, he'll get outpaced.
He will get outpaced, he'll have to take that particular hit and hope that he isn't too far behind when he begins to pick them back up.
His ideal race would be one where they go very quick but he doesn't get involved in it and they kill themselves earlier than they should, giving him plenty of race left to pick them up from.
Trace in which ROR killed the front runners around him leaving the fly to stay on past dead horses would be an ideal race for TNO.
Is it just me or is everyone basing the fact TNO MIGHT get outpaced on his run in last seasons CH? Because other than that run, where he had a pretty obvious excuse, he has shown speed, stamina, turn of foot, high cruising speed. No idea why ppl think he is slow or prone to be left behind (if it is based on that ONE run). Crazy assumption to make.
His 2 haydock runs and Aintree last year showed no sign of high cruising speed and turn of foot just stayed on gamely to beat rivals that he should have beaten readily.
just one point that I believe has been overlooked, are faugheen backers concerned or not by his lack of experience just the 6 runs over hurdles....
sublimity had only had 5...granted he was a much bigger price!
Faugheen will bust a lot of stats if he wins. The least raced winner in modern times and I'm sure the only won who's won over three miles over hurdles and the only one who's won a point to point. Extraordinary if it happens.
In the last in 22 years the single winner without prep runs(ROR doesn't counts as he had a proper racecourse gallop 2 weeks previously) was Granville Again in 1993 who came directly after taking 3rd spot in the Christmas Hurdle.
I don't have the older data but I did studied 1952 CH in particular and the horse racing pundits from that era mentioned the lack of prep runs as a huge negative for 2 horses who went into the `52 CH without having a run in the calendar year, one of them went into 4th(Average). So I assume in the history there were maybe 2-3 winners without racing fitness from maybe 300 triers. What we do know for sure is that it has been 22 years since it last happened. A huge stat to overcome, an athlete going into the best competition in the world without racing fitness.
I don't have the older data but I did studied 1952 CH in particular and the horse racing pundits from that era mentioned the lack of prep runs as a huge negative for 2 horses who went into the `52 CH without having a run in the calendar year, one of them went into 4th(Average). So I assume in the history there were maybe 2-3 winners without racing fitness from maybe 300 triers. What we do know for sure is that it has been 22 years since it last happened. A huge stat to overcome, an athlete going into the best competition in the world without racing fitness.
Hurricane Fly, hopefully nothing, but there is nothing to back Though hasn't been laid at any big prices the others are all strengthening up!
Though hasn't been laid at any big prices the others are all strengthening up!
Probably drifting on drying ground that will be against it??
Quiet amazed at people judging TNO on soft ground races and saying he will get outpaced cos he got hampered badly last March.
On a speed track on decent ground last xmas he almost beat My Tent or Yours.
That disproves all that tosh.
All smacks of I aint backed him so I will say on here why he cannot win,but failing to actually mention his form at Cheltenham and his form on decent ground.
Very selective!!!
On a speed track on decent ground last xmas he almost beat My Tent or Yours.
That disproves all that tosh.
All smacks of I aint backed him so I will say on here why he cannot win,but failing to actually mention his form at Cheltenham and his form on decent ground.
Very selective!!!
To be fair to TNO he does have form on soft,the Kempton race was fairly soft,but some of those runs where hes criticised have been worse than soft,and that Haydock race he struggled in was desperate going.
TNO has plenty of pace imo. I'd fancy him to win if this was a flat race. However, he is the worst jumper of the leading contenders imo (watch last year's race and see how he loses momentum at a number of flights) and I expect this to cost him if the ground is like last year.
Does jezki need a really strong pace? I think he might.
I really don't think mr Mullins would get the prep for such a huge favourite wrong.
If it loses then it's bread and water all week here.
I really don't think mr Mullins would get the prep for such a huge favourite wrong.
If it loses then it's bread and water all week here.
Bet 19 Oct 2014 on Faugheen?
Well done with Peace & Co
Forty
Well done with Peace & Co
Forty
Yeah that one stumped me too. Honestly didn't remember I'd placed any bet on Faugheen at all. Only found it when I was doing my compiling of all my bets. Asked about it in our WhatsApp chat and a mate said he remembers me placing it in the pub. :/
If I'd fancied Faugheen for the Champion hurdle back when I wrote the thread, trust me I'd have sung his praises having done so for the Neptune the season before. It was a simple bet place when drinking and totally forgot about it.
Only 50 quid bet so hardly matters at all to the overall p&l for the festival. I do place a very large amount of antepost bets. I didn't fancy him for the race up until the week of Cheltenham where he appeared winner by default. tbf I've paced a few bets by mistake etc.. take Champagne James for the Nov h/c.
If I'd fancied Faugheen for the Champion hurdle back when I wrote the thread, trust me I'd have sung his praises having done so for the Neptune the season before. It was a simple bet place when drinking and totally forgot about it.
Only 50 quid bet so hardly matters at all to the overall p&l for the festival. I do place a very large amount of antepost bets. I didn't fancy him for the race up until the week of Cheltenham where he appeared winner by default. tbf I've paced a few bets by mistake etc.. take Champagne James for the Nov h/c.
Well, I mean by default was that there wasn't anything in the race you could really take him on with. That not only was he always most likely the best horse in the race but his rivals dropped away in my estimation, along with the ground it meant really he was an odds on shot to win in the week leading up to the race. He was a good winner of a weak race.
Fair enough Cv,I thought before the race the new one was a prodded and the other 3 had been racing each other,the only horse that came out of the race apart from faugheen was articulated fire,anyway what a week for mullins !
TNO is a plodder. He was outpaced last year and was again so this year.
I wrote this on 2nd MArch - it sums up my view on what I meant by "default" ie nothing in the race can beat him..
Hurricane Fly is too old to win the Champion Hurdle. The New One just isn't good enough on good ground on this track, all out to beat Diakali on his last Grade 1 win. Jezki can't beat Hurricane Fly this season, only beat MTOY last season who lost the Scottish Champion Hurdle. Irving beat Arctic fire the same distance Jezki and Fly have. Blue Heron beat Irving in Kingwell and was 15 behind Faugheen at xmas. Ruby will be allowed to dictate from the front and he's a complete master of it over hurdles on the Old Course. By simple deduction the rivals aren't good enough so Faugheen will win.
I wrote this on 2nd MArch - it sums up my view on what I meant by "default" ie nothing in the race can beat him..
Hurricane Fly is too old to win the Champion Hurdle. The New One just isn't good enough on good ground on this track, all out to beat Diakali on his last Grade 1 win. Jezki can't beat Hurricane Fly this season, only beat MTOY last season who lost the Scottish Champion Hurdle. Irving beat Arctic fire the same distance Jezki and Fly have. Blue Heron beat Irving in Kingwell and was 15 behind Faugheen at xmas. Ruby will be allowed to dictate from the front and he's a complete master of it over hurdles on the Old Course. By simple deduction the rivals aren't good enough so Faugheen will win.
the bar was set high enough but that doesn't mean the horses in behind are weak, TNO beat everything in England this season, Fly AF and Jezki beat everything in Ire, so not a weak race by any means, just a high standard set by a horse which we have too look back in history to have something to compare him with. He's already posted 2 performances of 170 and higher, Fly posted 3 while Istabraq 4 in their entire career, so I'd say that if Faugheen stays healthy he can post more of those performances and surpass them. The standard is high which makes the rest look ordinary, which they aren't of course.
I'd disagree with that view entirely. A 1.5l defeat of Arctic Fire isn't a 170 performance in my book. Especially when the 3 horses behind him are too slow for the sprinted second half of the race the way Ruby set it up.
Faugheen most certainly didn't run to a 170 prior to Cheltenham either. Not in a million years is defeating a poor field at Kempton worthy of it at all.
Faugheen simply lacks any serious rival in this division. So to judge him is very difficult. Hopefully Peace and Co can improve to be a rival next season.
Faugheen most certainly didn't run to a 170 prior to Cheltenham either. Not in a million years is defeating a poor field at Kempton worthy of it at all.
Faugheen simply lacks any serious rival in this division. So to judge him is very difficult. Hopefully Peace and Co can improve to be a rival next season.
He was rated for Kempton 169 with RP, 169 with OR and 171+ with TF and basically all handicappers were proven right, beating an 160 rated animal by 9 lengths without applying any pressure amounts for ~170 any way you measure it. Arctic Fire trainer was expecting a big improvement, basically in all interviews prior to CH he spoke 5 seconds about Faugheen then 1 minute about Arctic Fire, so his improvement past Jezki and Fly was unsurprising.
this Pub thing sounds way too convenient CV. Now you're trying to play down the stake of it..it's only £50 so doesn't make much difference to the P&L. Considering everything else you post on there is staked at £10-£30 I would say it does.
I had £4650 bet on the 4 days and £1300 in antepost losses. A £50 bet isn't big in relation to Cheltenham. I've already got £150 bet on Vautour for next year's Gold Cup. £100 on Peace and Co.
I really don't remember placing the bet at all and it is not the only time this season I've not remembered placing a bet. It happens. At the end of the day it amounts to £100 more in profit than taking the 2/1 that was on offer with Ladbrokes in the morning of the race. It's a fraction of the over all profit.
I think I'll do a full update on my antepost bets at weekly or fortnightly intervals next season so as to catch any thing like that happening again.
I really don't remember placing the bet at all and it is not the only time this season I've not remembered placing a bet. It happens. At the end of the day it amounts to £100 more in profit than taking the 2/1 that was on offer with Ladbrokes in the morning of the race. It's a fraction of the over all profit.
I think I'll do a full update on my antepost bets at weekly or fortnightly intervals next season so as to catch any thing like that happening again.
The New One looks to have some sort of physical problem to me the way he has been jumping everything out to the right in his last 2 races (even the win against Vaniteaux to a lesser degree)
wonder if they look at the world hurdle for the new one never gonna win a champion
I can't watch this year's renewal. It was an absolutely farce. We didn't learn anything from it, as we all knew Faugheen was the quickest anyway, and Ruby was allowed to set a ridiculously sedate pace. I don't know how AP and STD expected to quicken past him from a crawl. Saying that, Faugheen was still very impressive, but the way the race was ridden left a sour taste in my mouth.
it was a fast start, slow in the back straight and very fast finish(from 4out to the last they recovered 2.3s - 12 lengths from the Supreme leader/s which they've lost in the back straight), with the overall time faster than standard, not a farce by any means but a bit tactical which the adversaries of Faugheen thought was a good thing as they truly believed at the time their horses will be faster on the run-in.
Its easy to say in hindsight that everyone knew Faugheen was the quickest, when in fact he still had to prove that as the Kempton race only proved Faugheen stayed really well. Prior to this we only knew of Faugheen turn of foot from Punchestown and from Ascot when those races were slowly ran and he had to quicken away from them but those were against much inferior horses(Valseur Lido, Blue Fashion) than Jezki TNo and Fly. BG, McCoy and NTD all said Faugheen was a sort of grinder knowing he'll make the running so the scenario they envisioned (catching him later on) was put into practice only that Ruby believed his horse will have a better turn of foot as he said in the RUK interview this morning: "I had plenty of confidence in Faugheens turn of foot and I didn't mind running a steady run race either"
Its easy to say in hindsight that everyone knew Faugheen was the quickest, when in fact he still had to prove that as the Kempton race only proved Faugheen stayed really well. Prior to this we only knew of Faugheen turn of foot from Punchestown and from Ascot when those races were slowly ran and he had to quicken away from them but those were against much inferior horses(Valseur Lido, Blue Fashion) than Jezki TNo and Fly. BG, McCoy and NTD all said Faugheen was a sort of grinder knowing he'll make the running so the scenario they envisioned (catching him later on) was put into practice only that Ruby believed his horse will have a better turn of foot as he said in the RUK interview this morning: "I had plenty of confidence in Faugheens turn of foot and I didn't mind running a steady run race either"
It is possible that Walsh kept the pace fairly sedate so as to increase the chances of the fly getting a place. The one horse out of the leading contenders that would have suffered under a blinding place was the fly. If it had been a truer run race I think Faugheen would have won by a bigger margin and I've yet to hear of a feasible argument as to how the result would have differed if the race had been run differently. The best horse clearly won without jumping convincingly or coming out of 3rd gear. The expectation of many was that Faugheen would win by 5 lengths pulling up and it's only the close proximity of Arctic Fire to the winner that has cast doubt over the level of performance of the winner. If Arctic Fire goes on to prove himself a top class horse then the quality of the race will be seen in a different light.
@cv I wish I had been aware of the 2/1 on Faugheen that you claim was available in the morning cos I didn't see anywhere near 2/1 offered. 6/4 was available for 15 minutes and thereafter he was generally 11/10 or shorter all morning.
@cv I wish I had been aware of the 2/1 on Faugheen that you claim was available in the morning cos I didn't see anywhere near 2/1 offered. 6/4 was available for 15 minutes and thereafter he was generally 11/10 or shorter all morning.
So what do the stakes mean your put up CV? It's no even clear on the blog what £10 relates to but around December time you claimed to be up 112 points, so £10 per point. It's very odds to put up stakes yet record the total in Points profit.
Timtin - The thing that annoys me about the race is that Jezki was never given a chance to win it. Given the amount of times he gets beaten in slowly run races in Ireland, I find it unbelievable that his jockey wouldn't attempt to do something to have the race ridden his way. He was always going to struggle to beat Hurricane Fly the way it panned out, never mind Faugheen.
Yes but no one wants to go up front because they're a target to late finishers, I doubt that even BG would've made that call so early during the race. They could've forced Faugheen in making mistakes by taking him on earlier but that would've played right into his tune as he'll jump better and win by further with a strong gallop. I agree it would've also suited Jezki but some could argue that McCoy did attempt to put it up from 3 out which would've looked brilliant had he won.
The races in Ire were truly slowly run affairs with the ground not favouring Jezki.. this was a moderate pace only slowed down in the back straight, overall time 7th in last 20 renewals and only separated by ~1 second between the top 7, bar Istabraq's 2000 - 3 seconds faster and last year's Jezki which was 6 seconds faster thanks to a mad pace early co-set by Our Conor which probably caused the fatal mistake. Also the going in those instances were on the firm side of good so I would certainly not define this year renewal a farce or a slowly run race.
The races in Ire were truly slowly run affairs with the ground not favouring Jezki.. this was a moderate pace only slowed down in the back straight, overall time 7th in last 20 renewals and only separated by ~1 second between the top 7, bar Istabraq's 2000 - 3 seconds faster and last year's Jezki which was 6 seconds faster thanks to a mad pace early co-set by Our Conor which probably caused the fatal mistake. Also the going in those instances were on the firm side of good so I would certainly not define this year renewal a farce or a slowly run race.
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