Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
What can you say about last seasons race, bitter dissappointment. Death of Our Conor, hampering of The New One, good ground and the pace of the race exposing Flys age, MTOY still way too keen and Jezki wins. Not the race we were all hoping for sadly and this seasons renewal is hardly exciting me at this stage, obviously we’re missing three big names in Our Conor, most likely Fly & the injured MTOY.
So one look at the antepost market and you see some nonsense prices of the top 3 in the betting. The New One and Faugheen both 7/2 in October, Jezki 5/1. Terrible prices on offer there.
First off I don’t think The New One would have won the race, yes he was hampered but he was outpaced at a key point and ran on at the death when the race was over while his jumping remains a serious problem. Also his 2 grade 1 victories have come at further than 2 miles. He’s by a chasing sire and I think he’ll lose even more speed this season. So when he is a best priced 7/2 it’s easy to overlook him for this race.
Faugheen is another who has some issues jumping a hurdle, but the faster he goes the better he jumps. He was visually impressive at Punchestown but he was surely the freshest horse in the race having only 3 facile runs prior to Cheltenham. 7/2 best price about him is also not much antepost value.
Jezki needs good ground and that strong end to end gallop to be seen at his best. So as his trainer said he is vulnerable in these soft ground slower run contests in Ireland. That combined with the underrating of his victory to begin with – despite breaking the track record – he is one who will drift from his current price as people fall over themselves to back the New One as he wins nothing races in England. While Faugheen has the Mullins effect and will also be very popular in antepost markets.
So the top 3 in the market are no value antepost for this. But where the top of the market is crowded (62% book in October!) it leaves some value down below.
So where to look for antepost value. Well stick with horses placed in previous years Supreme, 5yos placed in the Champion, Neptune winners, Triumph Hurdle winners and of course the reigning Champ.
Hardy Eustace – 1st Neptune
Hardy Eustace – 1st Champion Hurdle
Brave Inca – 1st Supreme
Sublimity – 4th Supreme
Katchit – 1st Triumph
Punjabi – 3rd Champion
Binocular – 3rd Champion
Hurricane Fly – Missed Supreme
Rock on Ruby – 2nd Neptune
Hurricane Fly – 3rd Champion
Jezki – 3rd Supreme
Punjabi & Binocular were placed in the Champion as 5yo and won as 6yo. Rock on Ruby is a proxy winner of the Neptune given the photo finish. With the exception of the 6 year olds Punjabi & Binocular, and the repeat wins of Hurricane Fly & Hary Eustace all the remaining winners were 2nd season hurdlers.
So that would throw up a shortlist of Jezki, Faugheen, Vaniteux & Tiger Roll. It would rule out TNO, but you have to factor in he was hampered and has an excuse for not winning last seasons race. While Irving was sick according to Nicholls after the Supreme flop and he could fall into the category of Hurrucane Fly in relation to the Supreme. Also Analifet was highly rated Triumph horse for Mullins but missed out through injury.
So I’ve explained why the top 3 in the betting are not antepost propositions, so that leaves me with three. Vaniteux came a good 3rd in the Supreme when Henderson & Geraghty thought he should skip the festival as he wasn’t ready for it. He’s reported to have strengthened for the summer and is kept hurdling this season. Tiger Roll was a good winner of the Triumph and triumph winners in recent years have a very good record in the Champion Hurdle, with 1 win, 1 2nd, 2 3rds a 5th and Our Conors fall from past the 6 runners. Irving was coughing after his Supreme flop and was put away for the season, but he was impressive and unbeaten going into the race for which he was joint favourite and he can’t be written off as a result.
Aside from those 7 mentioned the division lacks much depth to my eyes. Right now you can go back Vaniteaux 33/1, Irivng 33/1, Tiger Roll 25/1 all e/w and come out with a profit if any one of them even places. I think they do offer some great value and have backed all the on the nose. With a view to adding Jezki post soft ground slow run race defeats in Ireland.
http://jumpsadviser.com/cheltenham/champion-hurdle/
@cvbyrne
So one look at the antepost market and you see some nonsense prices of the top 3 in the betting. The New One and Faugheen both 7/2 in October, Jezki 5/1. Terrible prices on offer there.
First off I don’t think The New One would have won the race, yes he was hampered but he was outpaced at a key point and ran on at the death when the race was over while his jumping remains a serious problem. Also his 2 grade 1 victories have come at further than 2 miles. He’s by a chasing sire and I think he’ll lose even more speed this season. So when he is a best priced 7/2 it’s easy to overlook him for this race.
Faugheen is another who has some issues jumping a hurdle, but the faster he goes the better he jumps. He was visually impressive at Punchestown but he was surely the freshest horse in the race having only 3 facile runs prior to Cheltenham. 7/2 best price about him is also not much antepost value.
Jezki needs good ground and that strong end to end gallop to be seen at his best. So as his trainer said he is vulnerable in these soft ground slower run contests in Ireland. That combined with the underrating of his victory to begin with – despite breaking the track record – he is one who will drift from his current price as people fall over themselves to back the New One as he wins nothing races in England. While Faugheen has the Mullins effect and will also be very popular in antepost markets.
So the top 3 in the market are no value antepost for this. But where the top of the market is crowded (62% book in October!) it leaves some value down below.
So where to look for antepost value. Well stick with horses placed in previous years Supreme, 5yos placed in the Champion, Neptune winners, Triumph Hurdle winners and of course the reigning Champ.
Hardy Eustace – 1st Neptune
Hardy Eustace – 1st Champion Hurdle
Brave Inca – 1st Supreme
Sublimity – 4th Supreme
Katchit – 1st Triumph
Punjabi – 3rd Champion
Binocular – 3rd Champion
Hurricane Fly – Missed Supreme
Rock on Ruby – 2nd Neptune
Hurricane Fly – 3rd Champion
Jezki – 3rd Supreme
Punjabi & Binocular were placed in the Champion as 5yo and won as 6yo. Rock on Ruby is a proxy winner of the Neptune given the photo finish. With the exception of the 6 year olds Punjabi & Binocular, and the repeat wins of Hurricane Fly & Hary Eustace all the remaining winners were 2nd season hurdlers.
So that would throw up a shortlist of Jezki, Faugheen, Vaniteux & Tiger Roll. It would rule out TNO, but you have to factor in he was hampered and has an excuse for not winning last seasons race. While Irving was sick according to Nicholls after the Supreme flop and he could fall into the category of Hurrucane Fly in relation to the Supreme. Also Analifet was highly rated Triumph horse for Mullins but missed out through injury.
So I’ve explained why the top 3 in the betting are not antepost propositions, so that leaves me with three. Vaniteux came a good 3rd in the Supreme when Henderson & Geraghty thought he should skip the festival as he wasn’t ready for it. He’s reported to have strengthened for the summer and is kept hurdling this season. Tiger Roll was a good winner of the Triumph and triumph winners in recent years have a very good record in the Champion Hurdle, with 1 win, 1 2nd, 2 3rds a 5th and Our Conors fall from past the 6 runners. Irving was coughing after his Supreme flop and was put away for the season, but he was impressive and unbeaten going into the race for which he was joint favourite and he can’t be written off as a result.
Aside from those 7 mentioned the division lacks much depth to my eyes. Right now you can go back Vaniteaux 33/1, Irivng 33/1, Tiger Roll 25/1 all e/w and come out with a profit if any one of them even places. I think they do offer some great value and have backed all the on the nose. With a view to adding Jezki post soft ground slow run race defeats in Ireland.
http://jumpsadviser.com/cheltenham/champion-hurdle/
@cvbyrne
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 812
|
By:
Good write up as usual.
A few of us on the Tiger Roll thread all said the same thing, that there is great value outside of the top three. Haven't gone in on Tiger Roll personally, but have done on Irivng and Vaniteux at 33's a piece (I went ew though). The price on Faugheen at the moment is shocking in my opinion, so I'd rather be on The New One at a similar price. The Christmas Hurdle will hopefully show if Vaniteux and Iriving are up to it against The New One. I wouldn't be surprised if Jezki's price was a little bigger come race day, as I expect him to lose a few races in the winter, but I'm sure he'll come good again in the spring. I might have had Guitar Pete on my mind, but very disappointed with his last two runs. Didn't see Abbyssial's last run in France, but disappointing result on paper. |
|
By:
Abbyssial goes chasing.
Can't really make money betting on any of the top 3 in the market, not value there. As you say hopefully Irving or Vaniteux can win the Christmas Hurdle. If it's good ground I'd be hopeful for Irving to run well. |
|
By:
Very enjoyable write up and agree about the first three. My view was that Faugheen's form was there in the book post Neptune if looked at the right way so 14-16-1 represented good value. Nothing he did at Punchestown changed that view so his collapse in prize is a little puzzling. TNO as you say was outpaced coming down the hill which is being overlooked by his supporters. At the moment I don't see any reason why Jezki shouldn't be favourite but there's a long time between now and then and a nice couple of soft ground losses would help his price on the day.
|
|
By:
With respect to AP options the only interest for me are TIGER ROLL and VANITEUX and right now I think Tiger Roll is a skinny price so I have taken a lunge on VANITEUX. Of the first three in the betting I would only consider JEZKI. Proven winner when the chips are down in G1.
|
|
By:
Jezki wont go off bigger than 5/1 imo. whos going to beat him in ireland this year to make his price drift? mullins already said faugheen (awful price) wont take him on early season, no our conor and questions over how the fly will be campaigned never mind if he retains enough ability to trouble jez.
|
|
By:
Only thing stopping me from backing The New One is his price. Other than that he is the one to beat. Placed horses in the race have a good record of following up the season after and there is no reason to think he cannot find some more improvement, he's still only 6, 7 next March is ideal. I think his jumping issues look worse than they actually are as he just flicks the top off them. I've never seen him clatter one flat.
Last seasons novices look a weak bunch. All the best ones are going chasing with the exception of Faugheen. |
|
By:
Sint the placed horses record is rather a lot of 5yo runners in the race. Suppose you could say Hurricane Fly was placed the year before he won. But he had already won the Champion before and he's not really a normal horse tbf.
But Brave Inca is the example of a placed horse at 7 who won at 8. The New One also met with trouble in running so has a better excuse than Inca did. I just think the horse is completely overrated. Doesn't jump well, was outpaced in the Champion. Lost in Christmas Hurdle. He'll only get slower too. Then you have his price which makes it easy to overlook him as a bet. He does have a massive fan club though. Which must be a factor in his price. It's not a race that gets the juices flowing this year is it. |
|
By:
I completely disagree CV. I don't think he got outpaced in the CH. His form figures around the quickest 2m track in the UK, Kempton, are 121, so he clearly has plenty of pace, and the defeat was in the Xmas hurdle when he gifted the race to MTOY at the last. A testing two miles are his optimum conditions at the moment.
Losing in the Xmas is not really a negative. He got beat 1/2 a length, by a top class horse, how is that a negative? Rock On Ruby did the same thing. He is only going to get slower.....but there is no evidence to support that he is? The chinks in his armour are his jumping agree, and the jockey getting the delivery right. If he gets the horse placed at the right moment then i've not seen anything with TNO's turn of foot to beat him tbh. |
|
By:
But, his price means he is not an ante-post proposition. Hopefully some of the younger brigade look decent and effect the market making TNO a backable price.
|
|
By:
Buick, at some point Faugheen and Jezki will have to meet in the build up to Cheltenham. Not necessarily in the Morgianna, but probably in the Christmas Hurdle in January - they can't be kept apart all season. I also would rule out The Fly on winter ground in Ireland just yet.
If Faugheen is the second coming, like some think, and he beats Jezki in the AIG, then Faugheen will go into strong favouritism imo, irrelevant of how The New One performs in England. I think Jezki improves massively for good ground, so I do think he has a good chance of retaining his crown though. Mullins is likely to have a fav / co fav in the Supreme, and if Vautour or UDS win the Arkle, there'll be loads of doubles and trebles rolling on to Faugheen in the Champion imo. There's also the fact the bookies compete so much for business on the day, and out of the big three, I can see Jezki being pushed out more than The New One. |
|
By:
Yeah Sint that's very much a view of TNO one can take. He is certainly a big player in the race, no doubt. But I think he will always be too short a price based on what I think he should be, which means I'll never have a cent on him.
I do hope Vaniteux or Irving throw down a big challenge to him. The former might be one for the International at Cheltenham as he'll get weight from TNO. While Irving has flat speed and will excel at Kempton. If nothing emerges this is going to be a race to overlook tbh. Real shame about MTOY being injured. He would be my one to win if he ever learnt to settle. |
|
By:
Sadly MTOY's injury is a tendon. Probably won't come back the same horse now.
|
|
By:
Sorry, meant to say I wouldn't rule out the Fly on winter ground just yet. I think he's still got a 2m G1 in him yet if he gets his conditions
|
|
By:
^^^ me to.
|
|
By:
Rewatched the champion hurdle a couple of times this morning. Still of the opinion The New One is outpaced, look where he is at 3 mins in the race and then he just gets outpaced then stays on at the end. I remember Zarkander doing the same in 2012.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hsj81XUqdmI Anyway races can be over analysed, just haven't seen him do the business on good ground over 2 miles in proper company. I think he lacks pace to win it, but this isn't a very strong renewal so he's certainly a player if they are more aggressive on him, like the year Rock on Ruby won, he needs to lead round the final bend and turn it into a dog fight. |
|
By:
CV...I think he was but could it be he was outpaced but will stay on better up the hill than anything and still win , as he gets beat by 3l and lost about 5....
|
|
By:
Seen it plenty of times thanks CV. Still disagree!
 |
|
By:
Its all about opinions.
Mine is he hasn't got the pace for this race. Really hits the hurdles hard too. Can not understand why he has not gone chasing this year. |
|
By:
I thought you would sint
 TNO will never be a price I'd consider backing him at and I've the reservations about pace etc.. so just gotta let it be. My problem is Faugheen, as you'd know I had my balls on him for Neptune last season so feel an attachment to him, but I was keen for him to run in an RSA!! 7/2 is just not doable in a Champion Hurdle. Novice form is novice form, look at Menorah he hadn't the pace for a Champion and won a supreme. Jezki hasn't the versatility of how a race is run to be a confident bet. It's all murky at the top. I hope one of the 3 I backed can break out. There's always one or two that do. But energy is going on other races tbh. |
|
By:
Brandy If I owned TNO I'd have stayed hurdling that's for sure, division is weak especially in England. Owner isn't loaded, she wants prize money like any one of us would if we hit it big with a horse.
|
|
By:
Neptune form i think is much stronger form for churdles, i think this will prove to be the case as years roll on further and further down the line.
It is obvious to me that horses from previous years supremes should maybe go chasing after one more season hurdling with any of the placed showing significant progress should contest the next seasons churdle, the winner of the supreme shouldn't even bother in a churdle lol as ridiculous as that sounds i think the race either gets won by a horse with stamina in abundance or pace but rarely both which you need for a churdle. Neptune winners should stay hurdling and try the churdle. I do think as years go by we will start to see more and more Neptune winners winning the next seasons churdle. I think Faugheen will win it, though agree he is no price to be backing him in October, especially from Mullins yard, though if we think he is the 2nd coming, and gosh he might be, when do we back him, after he runs again and he becomes 6/4? I don't rate the Triumph hdl as a prep for any race at the following seasons festival period. (Don't stop me backing them though if i need them for a book, though it should) |
|
By:
my point over looked
 |
|
By:
neptune form goes way back too , not a new fad that...istabraq, hardy eustace etc
|
|
By:
Re: TNO
My take on him is that he would have won or gone very close in this years race without what happened,and the way he gets up that hill,and in a less competitive year he has an outstanding chance imo. To be honest I did not fancy him this year,but I do next year. Having said that I think to win next year he would need his jockey being more positive and going earlier and playing catch me if you can,i would be pretty confident that all the exposed horses would not catch him,but of course the novices from last season are still improving and Faugheen in particular literally could be anything, so maybe one of them could do him up the hill. I think hes shown in his races he has the pace and finishing strength to win a Churdle, and am keeping a close eye on his prices as the season unfolds,and hopefully nearer March hes a fair price. |
|
By:
Personally don't think he will be fav Budd, think that will fall to Faugheen myself and so TNO is bound to stay around the same price at least until the end of Feb. Though that does all depend on what Faugheen does between now and then obviously. I can't see a scenario with them both running tno being fav ahead of Faugheen, i look at it and can see in my head a 11/8 faugheen 11/4 tno on the day if they both get there unscathed and unbeaten.
|
|
By:
….and while they are eye balling each other up the hill Barry G and VANITEUX slips up the rail and wins by a nose and BIlly's on a big one !!!
|
|
By:
gREAT PIECE bUDD BUT NOT SURE YOU WILL SEE MUCH ACTION IN HIS PRICE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN ...FEW PISS UP JOBS.
|
|
By:
11/8 Faugheen would be somethign can't see it myself as you are banking on him destroying opposition before hand.
|
|
By:
and he wpould need to take on the big boys to get to that price.
|
|
By:
Mark my words there will be a short priced fav in this seasons Churdle, and if Faugheen is still in there pitching come end of Feb i cannot see it not being him! Look at the market now, bf only 94% book, meaning something is too short. It aint going to be any of the top 3 imo unless they don't win at some point. Someones already suggested that be Jezki and it might well be, but any of them can disappoint.
I factored my thinking that Faugheen is a machine into that price guess. If he is, he could be even shorter! Especially is the above guesser is right and Jezki does lose at some point. Though TNO could lose also. |
|
By:
I disagree Howdi, many a year has gone by we have had a short priced fav thats done nothing but beat trees very easily. Some win and a lot get turned over! Remember Istabraq being 5/2 at this stage before his 2nd Churdle, he went off odds on.
|
|
By:
I think you explained Istabraq's price yourself STS.
His 2nd Champion Hurdle!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
|
By:
! Look at the market now, bf only 94% book, meaning something is too short.
Don't understand this bit either STS. If horses were underpriced there would be a larger over round not smaller. |
|
By:
not 11/8 by beating trees name one ???
|
|
By:
if 2 out of 3 main challengers get injured then maybe he will go short but wont do it beating trees
|
|
By:
Ok, we'll see wont we. Have this every year. I base my antepost betting by what S.P price i think a selection could be on the day of the race. Not what it might be morning of a race. Although i am usually never exact i am often in the ball park. I find it easy with the festival but of course your trying to 2nd guess how each horse is going to perform as the season progress's and whether or not all will make it or not. After looking at the top 3, and guessing that Jezki or TNO will likely find defeat at some point in the coming season, i make it an 11/8 shot. Thus i am willing to back said horse at all rates down to around the 9/4 mark for antepost, if he comes out and does it well.
I think its only a 94% book in bf at moment due to a lot of them at the bottom that should be 1000 are only 60s and so on. Here is where i think you might find your 4%! There is plenty of room for movement further down the market than there is at the top, thats for sure. The only way one of them 3 at the top dont go really short is if they all win their preps in good style, which i cant see happening. I am not saying Faugheen will be as short as 11/8 on here, i am saying that will be his SP and he likely hover around the 2.6 2.7 mark on here in the weeks leading up to the race with the books being 11/8 with the likely hood of one of the big firms trying to get it by offering 2s say morning of the race. |
|
By:
lol good luck pal
|
|
By:
paddy power will make him 8/13 after his season opener no doubt tight asses
 |
|
By:
I base my antepost betting by what S.P price i think a selection could be on the day of the race.
Its how i work out the value and can base my books around so as to not go over broke on a said race so that most bases can be covered if not every horse in the race with a chance. Said that before also |