i had a gut feeling that TNO had slightly regressed this year i dont think he has improved anyway

this morning i really couldnt see a plus point in running here

wonder if they talking about the world hurdle this time next year

Three of the first four in last year's Champion are aiming at it again, all running well this season. The favourite, almost down to evens, has yet to run against a horse who is quoted at less than 50/1for this year's renewal. Discuss.

In one word timtin

YES


It's one thing winning these egg and spoon races around the country on bad ground on the road to Cheltenham, it is quite another trying to win hurdlings blue riband event! Faugheen may have beat a 160 rated horse easy by 8 lengths, which don't get me wrong looks very very good on paper, but the others have been there and done it and with the exeption of TNO who has had excuses i.e he hated the ground yesterday and we have seen him jumping on better ground which was an improvement plus (and it depends on what side of the fence you sit) last years race he was unlucky not to win or at least finish a lot closer than he actually did.

last year surely unlucky, but why can't TNO win these egg and spoon races just as easily? Why can we find so many excuses for him, even for last year, and yet all those backing him assume he won't have other excuses on the big day? Why do we assume Jezki will follow the same form as last year and will give his best on the big day? Aren't these assumptions the reason that puts them behind Faugheen, on paper of course.

What would be your pick taking the above in consideration? Would you find 3/1 Faugheen price acceptable? People said its crazy taking those before Christmas Hurdle. How about 5/1? People said its crazy taking those before his seasonal debut. Do those prices look better now? Then it means he confirmed the expectations and Faugheen backers have always been one step ahead.

For what is worth someone on atr just said that Ruby said yesterday after TNO race that the bookies are a joke offering evens for Faugheen... clearly Faugheen's connections know something we don't.. why aren't they giving him a prep run? Do they intentionally want to bring him as fat as he was at Ascot? What are they up to?!

LTO the favourite had an 160 rated horse 8 lengths behind after mistake at the last and eased down in the last 100 yards.



this 160 horse that was getting beat in handicaps round stratford when rated 134

or you could say on a better surface TNO beat the 150 horse by 17 lengths giving it 8 lbs

We can talk he beat this rated horse by that much but he beat this rated one by that much etc, but doesn't mean anything to me as it's not a handicap.

The truth is, all of these middle of the road horses have beaten each other by various lengths on various ground.  Iriving, Sign of a Victory, Bertimont, Purple Bay etc are all much of a muchness so using them as a reliable benchmark is dangerous.

It would be different if Faugheen had consistently beaten a proven and consistent 160 horse time and time again, but he hasn't.  The New One and Jezki have proven they can live with the best consistently on the big day.

Faugheen could walk all over them, but his price is not a backable one.

Maybe people are not prepared to take short prices about faugheen is because they recognise he is too short in the market as it is now and will surely be bigger on the day! Said it before, i will say it again, Faugheen will be available at somewhere between 6/4 and 2/1 morning of the race for a 15 minute period. How do we know also at this stage what PP will offer also? Stan James have been evs since Xmas, long before anyone else did, it is their sponsored race, surely they must have a plan up their sleeves to want to get him in the book on the day

Happens every year on the Tuesday, the first day, bookies have the best offers around. Often these races especially the Churdle if a small field which is often the case are bet to 102% over rounds or smaller. Our bookie chappies just love to put money in the pockets of punters, cos they know they will get it all back with some during the week!

Am not talking about sp's here, i am obviously talking about morning prices. I can't see TNO being pushed out at all, or Jezki for that matter but I can't see how TNO can be any shorter than he is now, 3s 10/3 area im guessing at this stage but i can see Jezki defo being shorter, 6/1 with nothing but an 11 year old HF behind him in the market is too big given the each way possibilities and also HF is sure to be shorter than he currently is too, guessing 7s - 9s for him, so what does that make Faugheen on the offers is my point. Putting my neck out, someone will offer 2/1!

if he's 10/11 on the morning, yeah you might get 2/1 for a tenner if you're lucky. and im sure there will be new customer account offers such as £5.00 at 5/1 etc etc.

As I have said I won't back Faugheen until the day assuming similar price, just don't see the point. However, many on here are saying he is too short and should be bigger.  I know most on here aren't layers (I'm not) but who'd lay a bigger price cause it would be snapped up in seconds on here.  Much the likeliest winner IMO.

Hand on heart, if Faugheen and The New One were the exact same price, and I had a free bet I would back The New One every time (regardless if both were evens or both were 3/1).

However, with my own hard earned cash, because Faugheen is such an unknown, I'm not prepared to back either unless I can get an each way price, because I'm not wading in on a race where the favourite could be Pegasus, or could be a big hype machine.

Both will place, that's all I'm sure of.

Personally think it hard to separate the front 3 to be honest,and anyone thinking one will win easily is being rather unkind to the other 2,and too dismissive imo.
Shorter the better for Faugheen imo,the other 2 will be nice and backable on the day.

Well it is cos they have run in the Churdle,one won and the other may well have.
Faugheen has no form against the calibre of horse the other 2 you have dismissed as much inferior,have.

That's an insult imo.

come on budd that's nonsense

they can win whatever they want it doesnt mean there isnt something out there with more ability or able to beat them

i think the fact neither horse has reached the 170 level shows that they are just short of the absolute best

Well apparently you can win a poor Neptune easily,and then look really good against poor opposition next season and you qualify as the next superstar.
He may turn out to be,fair enough,he also may not be.Right now he has it all to prove.

They went championship pace in the Christmas Hurdle, you can ask Ruby who said it so himself right after the race and has has more experience than both of us, you can also ask the clock who had them on best overall time on that ground for the last 20 years.

What price Faugheen if he was trained by D McCain

there are couple of form lines this season only with TNO and only one unreliable(due to Arctic Fire unknown improvement) with Jezki and Fly, of course you need to make sense of them and not judge under par runs(like someone did with Bertimont 17 lengths behind TNO); On form Faugheen is much the better horse but of course he still has to show up on the day and prove it. Anything can and will happen in a race be it a class 5 or a grade 1 but if we judge on what we know presently he'll win, of course he'll need to turn up with a better fitness than Ascot considering they won't let him run till Chelt...

Their is no form that puts Faugheen much the better horse than the Champion Hurdler.

isn't there a stat/trend about running in the same calendar year? I also seem to recall xmas hurdle winners have a poor record??


stats/trends can be broken of course