Vautour 9/1 Arkle Chase with PP

Think it s madness now CV with that stable. It s all about shuffling the pack for whats best for the amount of wins in the stable and not the horse

Yeh,but at least you know that. I got my fingers burnt last year with Felix Yonger and UDS.
Left his novices alone this season.

SJ the owners always have the final say anyway but you and many others on here forget that the more winners the stable has the more winners the owners have. Its simple really.

It's not too hard tbf, you just need to think through about the stable and where the horses would be run. You know he wants to keep them apart and Ruby will want them kept apart too so he has a top ride in each race. Horses who could have their target races changed like Shaneshill & Vautour would be best backed to win any race at Cheltenham. Others are safer like UDS or Black Herculese

Vautour and Valseur Lido have different owners so no problem running them both in the same race (also Gigginstown have their own jockey so it's not like Ruby has to choose).

Ricci want's his big guns kept apart which is fair enough.

Anyone moaning that Vautour might miss the Arkle should go back and read the OP - the market was telling you this before the start of the season.

CVByrne
CVByrne 18 Jan 15 16:35 Joined: 14 Mar 06 | Topic/replies: 4,415 | Blogger: CVByrne's blog
It's not too hard tbf, you just need to think through about the stable and where the horses would be run. You know he wants to keep them apart and Ruby will want them kept apart too so he has a top ride in each race. Horses who could have their target races changed like Shaneshill & Vautour would be best backed to win any race at Cheltenham. Others are safer like UDS or Black Herculese

There you go then. So if UDS gets beat in his next race, what happens then? It s madness. Do we change our mind again like last year with Felix Youger or what about when Vautour beat Western Boy and Mullins said afterwards "He's probably a Neptune horse" Its madness

No run before the festival would be another shocking preparation from Mullins for one of his chasers.

I backed Vautour today at 8/1 for the Arkle but have no complaints about where they go. But as a backer i'd be concerned he still looks like he needs another run before March. It's not like he had a hard race today was it.

I've not had a bet, but all this "If UDS does the business, we will keep them apart" Why? You're an Arkle horse 7 weeks out or you arent regardless of what UDS does

I'm on at 6's any race, and I'm 50/50 whether to lay off at 3's for the JLT and reinvest it on Ptit Zig and Valseur. Been seriously impressed with those two.

3 Chase runs is plenty for a Novice before Cheltenham imo.

SJ - The owner has two Arkle horses, one (UDS) really only has the Arkle option, the other (Vautour) could be equally competitive in the JLT.

If both are fit, well and win their preps comfortably why wouldn't he want to have the chance of winning two races. Nothing sinister about it - everyone knew this at the start of the season - see the OP.

What happens if they know Vautour is better than VLido? does VL go RSA??

VL shouldn't be twice the price of Vautour imo

VL is a different owner so if they consider the JLT the best race for him then he would still that owners best chance of winning the JLT even if the stable think Vautour is better.

So uncle, Paddy have never taken on a horse and got it wrong? They went 2s biggest price on Annie Power the Mares mate. Exactly my point Budd does he re shuffle the pack and move Lido up to the RSA and go back to Don Poli's original 4 miler?

Uncle - UDS and Vautour aren't owned by Ricci

3 runs is usually enough but not when they're winning at 1/5 and almost fell. Just looks like he could use another run to me.

yeh,i get that,but its possible they may think VL has more chance of winning the RSA with Vautour in the JLT,and they have another option for their other RSA horses, who both look like they could win the 4 miler.

sintonian
sintonian 18 Jan 15 16:58 Joined: 21 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 25,638 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
3 runs is usually enough but not when they're winning at 1/5 and almost fell. Just looks like he could use another run to me.

Agree not learning a greatd eal

Someone did mention another race,but I forget who,not sure it was walsh, maybe it was in commentary??

jetodd - sincere apologies.. They have incredibly similar colours and I only ever get to watch them on the Sportinglife website videos.

Of course Mullins, as always, will wait until every horse has run all it's trials and see how they are, and what the ground is, before finally deciding. The one thing that does seem to be too influential is Ruby Walsh's availability and his desire to ride all the big guns (HF and Annie Power last year for example). Ultimately the owner can overrule everything if he has the balls (and I'm sure Ricci does).

If UDS runs poorly next week or gets injured a week before the festival everything can get reshuffled - I don't see the problem with this.

Yeah ATR bloke asked if he ll have another Ruby hinted that he thinks 3 is enough

unclepuncle
unclepuncle 18 Jan 15 17:09 Joined: 16 Feb 03 | Topic/replies: 3,241 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
jetodd - sincere apologies.Cry. They have incredibly similar colours and I only ever get to watch them on the Sportinglife website videos.

Of course Mullins, as always, will wait until every horse has run all it's trials and see how they are, and what the ground is, before finally deciding. The one thing that does seem to be too influential is Ruby Walsh's availability and his desire to ride all the big guns (HF and Annie Power last year for example). Ultimately the owner can overrule everything if he has the balls (and I'm sure Ricci does).

If UDS runs poorly next week or gets injured a week before the festival everything can get reshuffled - I don't see the problem with this.


My problem is why should there be a re shuffle? What UDS does should have no bearing on where Vautour goes

Cos unfortunately its the yards priority to try and win every race,and not to think about what we may think is good for the sport,or even peoples bets.

I would absolutely love to see UDS and Vautour in the Arkle...what a race that could be and the build up would be something as well........especially on here!!!

But the people that could make it happen,wont.

If ruby rides uds, ricci should bring in another jockey for vautour in the arkle.  Feck having that quality of supreme winner making way for anything. Mccoy, gerraghty or fehily would jump at the chance, if they aren't on one. As another poster stated, he looked like he needs a faster gallop to sharpen up his jumping.

http://youtu.be/RzknzHuE21o        58 secs in


mccoy states if he could pinch 1 of rubys rides it would be UDS in the arkle, ruby responds no chance !!

Well its a jockeys dream to ride an exciting quick front runner,hair raising it may be but these jocks are nutters.
Ruby would not want someone else to have that when he can have it.

I hope Vautours owner stands up a be's counted. Even after today, you still have to factor in festival experience. Plenty of good jockeys around, and selecting one for the bigger race would be a fun challenge. It's nice to be flexible, but he pays the bills. Vautour wants the fences to come faster.

Graeme if he wants to win a race at the festival JLT is his only option.

On a side note, why would mullins wend 2 for the jlt, and not the arkle. I'm thinking Lido may go rsa afterall, and that mullins is wanting to sweep up.

Which is the harder race for Vautour? 50/50 really. Un De Sceaux in the Arkle or Valseur Lido / Ptit Zig / Gilgamboa in the JLT?

Un De Sceaux the best of any potential opposition but if there's any weaknesses is his armour, it'd be easy to capitalize. The JLT has far more depth to it but may be easier won.

Arkle the horse is proven at the festival. I'd rather give the arkle a go and stay on for at least second, than lower ambitions by going down the easier route. If they see him as a future stayer, then a good arkle run is the way to go. Ricci shouldn't throw in the towel for anyone.

Gigginstown will feel that Valseur Lido has nothing to fear from Vautour. They would be mad to run Don Poli in the 4 miler with an amateur jockey if they think he might be a Gold Cup horse in 2016. They sure as hell won't be taking each other on over 3 miles.

Think people need to check their comments they made about Mullins, Ricci and Vautour. Looks very likely that Mullins knew UDS might be this good. So Ricci's options are to have a Rubyless Vautour try take on UDS, or go for the 2m4f race with Ruby aboard.

You can see why Ricci leaves things up to Mullins and Ruby.

Captain Conan didn't go for the Arkle because Henderson knew Sprinter wouldn't be beat. This is the same

And sprinter sacre had winning festival experience, plus conan came 5th in the jewson, and would have fared better in the 2 miler. That enhances our opinion. Now unless lido goes for the rsa, i wonder who he would expect to run better.  We saw how good uds win, but hiding from him, then not winning the jewson would be an error, and even a brass neck if uds didn't win the arkle. The owner should grow a pair.

I agree. he's supposed to be sporting and even that aside the JLT looks ultra competitive, you can add apache stronghold to the above list too as a possible....about time he stepped up and put the supreme winner in the right race.

I think the Vautour for JLT is because as Ruby said they think he's a stayer. If they want him to make up into a Gold Cup horse, they should step up to 2m4f now and then up again to 3 miles next season. He's bred to stay.

I think CVB is absolutely spot on. Add to that the fact Vautour looked so comfortable over slightly further last time and it has to be the JLT.

Surely you'd want two horses in the better race rather than having two in the JLT that is so competitive that you wouldn't be over confident in any case.....I can see that they seem to be taking the view that UDS is past the post, but the arkle is the arkle so why not try to make sure.

When they turn round to Ricci and tell him that Vautour has no chance so let's not bother, he should for once insist...I'd love to see the look on Walsh's face should that happen.

Mullins is running Vautour in the right race, if they think he's a stayer they go up in trip. Just because you may disagree with his opinion doesn't make hi wrong and you right. He knows his horses better than we do after all.

Vautour, Champagne Fever, Al Ferof, Menorah - Supreme winners and are Stayers. Mullins said today after Outlander won "you need a stayer to win the supreme".

Didnt re Felix Yonger last seaon.

Didn't what with Felix?

He does know his horses better that's for sure and we all agree on that, but he's running Vautour in the JLT because UDS is in the arkle, without UDS he wouldn't be anywhere near the JLT...no-one is believing it's the stayers angle.....vautour has the pace for an arkle that's obvious and it's the best race for him and where a supreme winner of his calibre deserves to be....with any other owner/trainer he'd be in the arkle...that's a guarantee.

As I said on another thread a lot of Ricci's horses have been moved around to accomodate Gigginstown's horses and Un De Sceaux. He seems perfectly O.K. with it but maybe if a bigger deal was made of it in the media, he might start digging his heels in.

Also another way of looking at it is if Un De Sceaux wasn't around, there wouldn't be any doubt Vautour would be going for the Arkle and not joining Valseur Lido in the JLT.

The JLT being the right race for Vautour is only in the context of the Arkle being the right race for Un De Sceaux.

That's my take on it and I'd definitely be with duffy....I'd love to see him take on Un De Sceaux.

Valseur Lido surely goes for the JLT and Don Poli the RSA as well.

Yeah he does know the horse better than us. He also knows valseur lido better than us to.  I have a voucher bias, but i also believe what i say. Cue Card done alright aftter chasing home sprinter sacre. If you had mentioned the other race to the tizzard camp, they wouldn't have any of it. I can also say with honesty, that if i had a horse he would go for the best race. I think the horse will go jlt, but i only have an opinion.

He Mullins ficked up Felix Yonger going JLT

If you asked Ricci which race he wants Vautour to run in he'd say the JLT because he wants to avoid UDS and have Ruby aboard. So if owner and trainer want the same thing then what's the argument?

stevo1
He Mullins ficked up Felix Yonger going JLT

Yep, Felix wasn't good enough in the end though. But he defo got it wrong with Ballycasey, horse didn't stay and he should have run in the JLT where he'd have had a good chance, Djakadam should have gone for the RSA.

Thought it was done and dusted,and that everyone knew that Mullins and Walsh want to win both races,so one in Arkle and one in JLT. Add that Ricci leaves it to Mullins to make these decisions,and it is indeed done and dusted.
Last two races they ran in and ran well in kind of confirms it anyway imo.

Dont see any point in discussing it anymore to be honest.

You'd also think that mullins should take the view that whilst he has a strong hand in winning a grade 1 chase at the festival for once he'd want to nail it down with two runners.

He has an odds on shot in the Arkle duffy, why on earth would he throw in his 2nd best Chaser. Why would any trainer every run their two best novices in the same race when they can be kept apart. I mean it's lunacy.

Because the Arkle is the Arkle and the JLT nothing.

is nothing

They want to go for 1st and 1st,not 1st and 2nd.
What will be will be,but that's the intention.

This is another good example of why the JLT and Ryanair races are such a curse to the festival...they just water down the other championship races.

The JLT is nothing!! It's a grade 1 race at Cheltenham. All races are forgotten at the end of the day bar the 4 Championship races and the King George.

The jlt is a good race. Yeah though, the arkle is the arkle, and the fences come quicker, which i think the horse needs. It's not just a betting forum, its also about racing opinions. The decision may already be sealed, but were entitled to disagree with it for talk sake. Were very aware that ruby rides uds, and who the trainer is, thank you very much.

Ok for talk sake

I would like Vautour in the Arkle as I think the race is in danger of becoming a rout,and at least his presence would make it more interesting,but I know pretty much it aint happening.

You say that Duffy,but those races do give certain horses the chance of victory at the festival.

Ryanair has given us some bl00dy good races last few years,and the JLT this year really could be one of the races of the week.
Were it not for the JLT you could have a fair few horses strung out behind UDS,or maybe not even running at the festival.

Obviously we would all like to see competitive racing, but after today, if Vautour was mine he wouldn't be taking on UDS.

^ Spot on bud.

If I owned Vautour I'd have wanted to run in the Arkle until today. That was a demolition against two very good horses and I'd do my hardest not to take that machine on.

One of the most nonsensical phrases in racing is the 'never be afraid of one horse' line. Sure, if you have a top-class horse and it has only one option at Cheltenham, you should roll the dice and take on the supposed superstar. But if you have a perfectly winnable other option, why on earth wouldn't you be afraid of one horse when that horse looks to be a machine?

The JLT has much more depth to it, but I doubt Ricci is cowering at the thought of taking on Valseur Lido, Ptit Zig et al. for all that they're very good horses. I bet he doesn't think Vautour can beat UDS.

fair point budd, I think we're just discussing it repeatedly because we all know that he deserves to be in the arkle purely on the quality of the horse regardless of how good UDS is, and the reason he isn't is nothing whatsoever to do with him being a stayer, in any case, captain chris MWDS and tidal bay are all stayers and all won arkles in MWDS's case he went down in trip to win it.

Lads if any of you owned Vautour you would run him in the JLT. No one really remembers 2nds at the festival. All this talk about owners having balls etc get a grip.

The point is that even if Vautour wins the JLT, he'll still be living in the shadow of UDS so his victory wouldn't feel the same....much better to have a crack at him and give yourself the possibility of victory.

If you were a small owner with only one crack at the festival I could understand the thought of winning any race would be great, even a lesser one but Ricci has them on a conveyor belt and will always have another superstar coming along so he may as well keep trying to win the best races.

I wouldn't run him in the jlt. The fav will face different conditions, and hasn't run at the track before. One bad jump and it's anyones. I've been honest about gilgamboa and jh.

Yep,I agree the horse deserves his place in the Arkle,and you are right re stayers winning the Arkle.
Still it is nice to see a true 2 miler as fav,and one hopes now that he stays sound to take on the best 2 milers next season.
The thought of UDS against Sprinter and SDG is mouth watering if they are all fit.

Sprinter 3 years ago in his Arkle against UDS now would be a mouth watering prospect.

Sadly UDS is a few years too late.

Duffy Ricci may or may not have them on a conveyor belt. He has had 5 festival winners which is something else but these never come easy and Gigginstown nearly had that on the Friday last year and as I said no one remembers seconds. When you can win one you take it and if you can win one you certainly dont run in another race to be 2nd or 3rd.

duffy 25 Jan 15 21:18 Joined: 28 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 13,969 | Blogger: duffy's blog
The point is that even if Vautour wins the JLT, he'll still be living in the shadow of UDS so his victory wouldn't feel the same....much better to have a crack at him and give yourself the possibility of victory.

I just don't agree with you at all. Vautour is a Gold Cup horse for next season. He was bought to be one. UDS is a Champion Chase horse for next season.

Cant ever see Vautor staying a gold distance, he is being pointed that direction because of others. He will fall into the CF & AF category.

Stayers win the supreme, like you need a 2m5f horse to win a champion.

Plus people thinking UDS is better than Vautor when Vautor has the better hurdle form.

Why do you believe he won't stay Gold Cup trip? He's never tried the trip, is bred to be a Gold Cup horse and he was bought to be a Gold Cup horse. Sir Des Champs got the trip fine when 2nd to Bobs Worth.

Plus people thinking UDS is better than Vautor when Vautor has the better hurdle form.

Vautour has the better hurdle form!! If UDS had gone to Cheltenham to run in a Champion Hurdle or to Punchestown he'd have a hurdles rating at least in the high 160's. If he'd gone over and swapped places with Vautour in the Supreme he'd have smashed them further.

I'd be pretty sure who I'd be betting on if UDS took on Vautour over 2 miles over hurdles.

He would have to be a freak to be able stay GC trip, his worst performance of last season was over 2m4f, maybe a hard season etc.

Cant remember Sir Des Champs winning a supreme.

Im pretty sure THEY told us that CF was bred to be a stayer.

And for some people saying he stayed after his last run where he did not have rival to test him.

SO can you name any of the horses UDS beat over hurdles ?

He beat Gemix twice over a trip further than UDS would like. Gemix is rated 165 which puts UDS miles clear of Vautours 158 hurdles mark.

Vautour beat Josses Hill, Vaniteaux and Lac Fontana. World beaters clearly.

But even if you simply want to go on hurdles rating. UDS is rated higher than Vautour. So essentially every which way you want to slice it. UDS has the better hurdles form.

im surprised you go with ratings and not your personal opinion.

Agree with Vautour beating average horses.

UDS maybe a superstar but i can only gauge him on what i have seen, well behind Vautour imo.

Next you will be telling me that Un Temps Pour Tout warrants a 154 figure

I don't think vautour is a gold cup horse either. I wouldn't be suprised if he's a champion chase horse. Then again, if uds is the champion chaser, maybe vautour could be shuffled over to the ryanair. Right now uds is the best 2 mile novice around, at the very least. You just can't discount the ground and race could work against him. He aint been there before, and they say he aint easy to train. You also cant discount that many horses dont run to their best on the day. If he were mine i'd be calling the shots, and bringing a jockey in for the arkle. He wont though, so i'll stop rattling on about it. Race watered down. I hope other owners see it as a challenge. What would have predicted last years outcome ?

The strange thing about all this is that UDS still is as big as 10/11, if you were shown the race today and guessed the price surely you'd be saying 1/2 at least...he's dismissed 2 potential main rivals today his stablemate likewise after today who despite not going to run is still 2nd fav,another prominent in the betting JH can't jump and then you're really into the also rans.

It seems that the market still thinks there's a chance that Vautour might run or that the chance of better ground, stiffer track/fences and perhaps the occasion buzzing him up, first big festival and all that, adds up to even money.

The one thing we really don't want to see and I can see it happening is the prospect of a great race turning into a farce with no real opposition turning up and 15 odd runners in the JLT....I'll say it just one more time but this situation is exactly why the JLT shouldn't be there...the Arkle undoubtedly suffers from it and races like the Arkle should be protected.

Duffy the GC and the C Ch also both suffer because of the Ryanair and a 2 and 1/2 hurdle race is also being mooted which would damage the Champion and World Hurdles. The introduction of these intermediate races was all about money, sadly.

Native Upmanship must be rolling in his grave and being born a few years too soon

Graeme83 you have summed it up perfectly imo,Vautour was "in a different league" according to the Iraqi information minister "mullins" after Cheltenham,he beat Clarcam as easy as uds did,while I now accept uds maybe will be a superstar,Vautour should be still running in the arkle...grow a set Ricci !

UDS has never run at Cheltenham let alone the festival. Vautour has. He won the supreme. One would suppose that part of the reason why he didn't go down the champion hurdle route was because they think he is likely to be top class over fences. You'd think Mullins would learn his lesson after last season and The Fly.

No skin off my nose either way as I don't yet have an interest in either race but it certainly won't surprise me if UDS comes down in The Arkle and Vautour gets done on the run in after travelling like the best horse.

In the BLT or whatever they won't to call it.

Well we'll see about Vautour but he's certainly going to be campaigned for the Gold Cup next season. They believe he's a stayer and he's by Robin Des Champs, who sires stayers.

Anyway, we all know decision has been made on where Vautour runs. I think I'm going to leave it at that. We'll see how he gets on in March.

I am surprised people worry over UDS's jumping.
Yes he has tipped up but it was a crumple on landing more than a mistake.
His jumping has been quick and athletic.
Why will it be more of a test at Cheltenham? He goes fast anywhere he runs and this myth regarding the fences are so much stiffer??!!!!
There are guidelines to how a fence can be set up. You can't make them bigger and stiffer to suit yourself.

Well ive seen all the Arkle contenders(whats left of them)and I aint seen a better jumper of a fence than UDS.
Course he may fall,so might any of the others,not that there will be many others.
Not really substance for wagering though!!

Funny how winning a supreme makes people think a horse has better form over hurdles than a horse who goes to France and beats a much higher rated horse.......twice,and that over further than he likes.

Ok,try and justify Vautour in the Arkle -fair enough- but don't have a pop at UDS and hios form etc,hardly his fault

Just start to appreciate this horse,as some of us already were......is my opinion.

As for JLT......Personally I would rather see these horses that will run in it giving us a competitive race,rather than being strung out like washing behind in an Arkle,or even not bothering to go to the festival,knowing they have no chance.

Oh, and people laying a horse in case he falls? Really?? im so desperate for a bet im going to watch a race hoping a horse falls???  Stuff that attitude.

CV JUST HAVE TO CORRECT YOU ON SOMETHING

they didnt run captain conan because of simonsig not sprinter sacre

i'm convinced captain conan would have won that arkle, didnt stay in the JLT

CVByrne post at 21.39 is correct.

Ah Yes, it was Simonsig. They thought Conan should avoid him. So Henderson has also kept his apart is what I'm referring to

Not wishing to be argumentative CV, but the list of supreme winners that turned out to be stayers that you listed on the previous page, all ran in the Arkle. In fact there was a period not so long ago when the Arkle was seen as the best CGC trial.The 'stayer' argument doesn't really stack up for me, I'm convinced were it not for UDS Vautour would be running in the Arkle and as a fan of the game will be disappointed it won't be happening.
Last point, everybody is assuming that it's done and dusted that UDS will bolt up, yet you can get almost evens, so the market thinks it's 50/50 and that's assuming Vautour doesn't turn up (which seems to be the concensus). So we are hardly talking about a fours on shot here, by no means a certainty.

surely now though if trainers think theyve a gc horse then the JLT is the better race

a few years back this wasnt an option.

at least they'll find out if he stays that trip. they kept saying champagne was a stayer but ran him in the arkle - this season theyre now stuck as to which trip is best because of the way he's been campagined

How many of those Supreme winners won the Arkle?

The Arkle was considered the best Gold Cup Trial before the JLT existed. We've seen the shift to JLT and especially RSA for Gold Cup winners.

What Mullins is talking about, stayers win the Supreme. All novice hurdle races are slowly run and the first time many face a very strong championship pace in their life pace is in the Supreme. Then Supreme winners are always flops in the Champion Hurdle the next season as they are not quick enough. More placed horses in Supreme and Neptune winners go on to be Champion Hurdle horses.

It's all about experience, they learn from the Supreme experience. It's why I back placed Supreme horses for Champion Hurdle after they have been beaten. MTOY, Jezki. Vaniteux and Irving this season.

Every Supreme winner has either run in the Champion Hurdle or Arkle the following season in last decade. All have been beaten.

The JLT is there now to give the option. Al Ferof and Champagne Fever I feel would have beaten Noble Prince and Taquin Du Seuil had they gone JLT route

^^^^^ I agree

Expect it won't make a difference but might not be 100% Vautour goes for JLT, comments from Ruby on RP website

"There is no doubt that Vautour will get two and a half miles but he also has the pace to follow Un De Sceaux around. I wouldn't say it's a done deal that he goes for the JLT. "