Next season's Champion Hurdle...

Whoops. Left out The New One. Could be a rematch of the three with UDS thrown in next season.

your all forgetting un de sceaux who in my opinion would have gone close this year doing exactly what jezki done in the race only for mr mullins trying to make it easier for hf

Would love to see UDS in it and bombing off from the front from a MTOY's point of view because it would ensure a very strong pace for much longer in the race and crucially would ensure that the rest of the field follow it.

Sint

I don't think it's overrated myself, if two people get from A to B but one does it in a controlled manner and the other does it whilst doing the hokey cokey along the way,one will be using up more than the other after they both get to where they're going.

not sure jezki been given the credit this year fairly flew travelled very easily

I agree howdi.

Anyone think they might drop Annie Power back to 2m for a crack at the Champion?

Very early days, but Faugheen is 30 on here, when he is 12's with the bookies, so this may not be the first choice (although 30 could look MASSIVE in March 2015).

Outside of Vautour and Faugheen, I can't see any novice from this year being in the mix, so that leaves the big three at the top of the market and UDS.

UDS's price is extremely skinny now compared to the big 3 at this stage, for what they've acheived so far.

Its a simple well known fact that pulling during a race will affect a horses chances of getting home in a race.

I would tend to agree with Duffy........had UDS been in the race,MTOY may well have beaten Jezki,although he may not have got to UDS!!!

Take nothing away from Jezki,he did nowt wrong and was a good winner, but MTOY weren't beaten far despite using up too much energy by not settling.

jezki will beat the tno and mtoy again at aintree !

^ interesting call, will Jezki not go for Punchestown G1 over 2m instead?

I'd fancy TNO to beat MTOY in the Aintree Hurdle - if the latter runs - but Annie Power would be a big threat (though I just wonder if she might have left her Aintree race behind after enduring a hard race in the World Hurdle).

I'm in the camp that TNO shapes like he would be even better over further and I hope they send him chasing - I doubt they'll do that though as he was close enough for connections still to be encouraged that he can win a Champion Hurdle.

He's a souped up zarkandar, who himself showed plenty of boot around wincanton once upon a time, just like melodic rendezvous did too around wincanton too earlier this year.

Against the proper speedsters both these two horses got outpaced at various points of the race, I thought TNO might end up being this years zarkandar (did say it on the champion hurdle thread way back in the early season tbf, mind you I also didn't think jezki could jump well enough) and he proved to be just that, outpaced at a crucial point and then ran on after the initial kick.

cufcno1 • March 18, 2014 8:58 PM GMT
jezki will beat the tno and mtoy again at aintree !
This game aint for you if you think MTOY will run @ Aintree

who do you think you are,i said jezki would win months ago,mtoy ran at the aintree meeting last year,and i havent heard anyone come out and say thats it for the season,if it doesnt run so what u idiot !

theres more chance of jezki not running at aintree than mtoy

why can they not try mtoy over 2 and half,might be the making of him geoff !

TNO and AP would I imagine go to Aintree this year but I have always said TNO was a chaser and would expect him to go chasing next year.

I just think its bizarre for anyone to think that what MYOYs needs right now is a step up in trip in a slower run race.
Do you really think that could be the key to get him to settle?
Do you think Henderson & JP are seriously thinking down that line ?

i dont know but why not try,if the horse is going to get away with it anywhere it would be aintree !

MTOY should definitely run at Aintree. Where else would they run him? JP has two top class two milers, one who is trained in England (and won at Aintree last season) and one who is trained in Ireland (who won at Punchestown last season). It would make sense to run them both at those courses again. I think MTOY would stay 2m4f even, as seems likely, if he pulls. Even if he doesn't, surely it's worth a go?

I'm struggling to see how a horse who burns up too much energy cheaply and thus doesn't do  himself justice at the end of a 2 mile race ...is going to be suited to going another 4 furlongs in a race where they'll go even slower early doors with him pulling just as much as usual and the jockey struggling even more in the knowledge that the need to conserve energy is even greater than normal.

The only course that he has appeared to struggle to get home is Cheltenham, with it's stiff finish. He had no trouble on heavy ground at Kempton or on soft ground in the Betfair at Newbury. With the likelihood of good ground, I think it's worth trying at Aintree.

This is a horse that has all the talent and capability of winning a couple of champion hurdles if they could get him to settle and some think sending him over 2 m4 is going help and not hinder this cause. Beggars belief.
Henderson said straight after the champion hurdle when interviewed we just need to get him to drop the bit but im not sure how we are going to do it.
Hed probably forgot abount the 2m 4 race @ Aintree!.

Hes not struggling to get home as such,he got up the hill this year and last year,but using too much during the race is definitely affecting his chances of winning the top races. Were he settling he would imo have won both the Supreme and the CHurdle. For me hes the fastest 2 mile NH horse around. Jumps a hurdle well too.

Geoff,
If his trainer don't know what to do,it don't give us lot much chance of knowing!!

My guess is they will try him over a few fences at home and see if that helps, if it did they could go chasing next season.....only a guess though!!
Certainly don't see a longer hurdle race helping.

They can't give up on hurdling whilst he has all the ability in the world to win a CH , chasing would be worse IMO anyway, because there's more effort needed to jump a fence and as the jockey pushes him into a fence it'll just serve to fire him up.

I backed Jezki because Barry Geraghty was riding him. In my opinion the last twice Tony McCoy gave the horse very poor rides. I hope Geraghty keeps the ride (he is 5 out of 5 on the horse). Look at last years Supreme and watch Robbie Power get the last two hurdles wrong on Jezki. Jessica Harrington does not tilt at windmills and knows when she has a horse capable of competing at championship level.

the tent doesn't look a battler to me more of a bottler, doesn't matter how good you can travel through a race if you bottle it at the business end..

despite cutting jezki back and clearly putting it all in and despite being under pressure before TNO in the christmas hurdle and making up about 3 lengths between the final two flights and then again battling right to the line...despite all that you mean?

yes despite putting himself in a winning position in a supreme and a CH he bottled it both times losing to 2 horses that wanted it more....

can,t compare a flat track like Kempton to Cheltenham, he can get away with it on flat tracks but not cheltenham

If it is a question of one of Jezki and My Tent Or Yours going to Aintree and one to Punchestown, it's pretty simple for me.

The last thing My Tent Or Yours needs is a step up in trip, two miles round Punchestown should suit. Conversely, Jezki is a Grade 1 winner over 2m 4f and has shown a tendency to hang left on right handed tracks in the past. If I had to split them Jezki would be the one going to Aintree.

On next year's Champion Hurdle, I don't think Tiger Roll has been given the credit he deserves for winning the Triumph. That was just the third start of his life and he has shown significant improvement with each run. Worse 33/1 around imo.

I certainly wouldn't be in the dodgy camp. He's run gun barrel straight in two races and all the way to the line both times. He's been trying to take back ground on two stout stayers. If he were mine he'd either be over fences next season or I'd be telling the jockey to kick on going to two out and serve it up to them.

He should be kicking on far earlier over hurdles anyway. He is the fastest horse in the race, so why not make more use of it? McCoy keeps trying to produce him at the last. If he tried to win the race earlier, he may take them all out of their comfort zone.

I don't think MTOY will ever win a CH now. The horse has a serious issue with settling, even when the pace is strong (i.e. this years Champion Hurdle). Yes, he's undoubtedly the paciest horse in the race, but that doesn't count for a huge amount on a track like Cheltenham. The only way the horse could ever win the CH in the future is if he's given his head and allowed to dictate his own fractions, and even then, he might not get home. If I were JP then I would look at going over the big jumps - there's nothing like a 8 feet high fence to encourage a horse to settle a bit better. That being said, I don't think they will and my guess is that MTOY will be outbattled up the hill again next year by The New One and Faugheen

I am struggling with comments like he was outbattled,and he bottled it,i really am.

To be honest imo that's just plain ignorance,and totally unfair on the horse.

Do people actually realise what pulling during a race does to a horses chances??

it got beat off a very good horse when on good ground ! ran a cracker in defeat,didnt get outbattled this year,did last year though

problem with the tent he doesn't have the instant turn off foot, as some other the stables strong traveling champions, against the very best anyway, still a very smart horse some of the crabbing on here very unfair

think hes worth at shot Aintree but that just feels like that the new ones cheltenham compensation

your struggling with someones opinion budd

I think it's fair to say that there isn't a lot between the first 3 home with UDS and maybe vautour if the decide to do what they did with AP this year in delay chasing for a crack at the CH!!

Im going for Faugheen for next years race. If Vautour is going chasing who knows about UDS and Annie P but Faugheen has won the best race at the festival for stepping up to CHdl. I dont think this years race was as good as we thought and I'm sorry but Im still dissappointed that Jezki won.

They say The New One was unlucky at Chelt and he would ghave won at Kempton if hed not messed up the last, well he is going to be underpriced because of this and I don't like unlucky horses and at 3 times the price Faughen wild do.

i like faugheen and I hope they stay hurdling with him, he could be anything...

At 2 miles pace he needs to learn to hurdle. They will laugh at him if he starts kicking hurdles out of the ground in a champion.

learn to hurdle better you mean?

as he has only run 4 times over hurdles id expect him to get better wouldn't you?

On balance probably not. Horses which miss some out tend to keep that tendency going forward. Good jumpers are usually pretty nimble by the time they arrive at the track. More Of That had only four starts before jumping beautifully in the world hurdle.

I'd be very surprised if Faugheen goes down the 2m hurdling route. Looks a stayer to me who needs to improve his jumping.

Un De Sceaux is still very much an unknown quantity. It could just as easily turn out that he's not up to Champion Hurdle class.

I would say Mullins grip on the two mile hurdling ranks will not be what it was now that Hurricane Fly's best days are behind him.

Crikey, this looks set to be another massive thread. Some people want to consider the crap they wrote on this season's thread before cluttering another one. The only one worth listening to last time was bucksisgood.

Can't have some of the comments on MTOY I agree with Budd. Jezki was the best horse on the day but MTOY certainly had his excuses and another couple of yards and I think he would have been in front. I can't have people calling him a bridle horse or saying he doesn't get up the hill. He was extremely keen so he deserves credit for finishing as close as he did but for me his main fault was his jumping. He just wasn't quick enough at them. If he could jump like Hurricane Fly or Binocular he'd be one of the best we've seen. I would rather see him have a spin on the flat than the Aintree hurdle. Complete waste of time running over another half mile. I think The New One will be close next year but possibly a bit flattered by closing late on in the race. He was hampered badly obviously but I also thought he got left behind a bit when Jezki, Fly & MTOY kicked into gear. That was effectively where the hottest part of the race was and TNO was effectively staying on when the race had been run.

I think he's likely to go chasing but I think Vautour would be the best CH prospect from the novices. His hurdling is a joy to watch. Faugheen would be interesting but as mentioned above he won't get away with clattering hurdles like he does.

Faugheen will run in the Gold Cup..........next season as a novice.

Just watched the race again,jezki not getting the credit he deserves,jezki pulled harder than mtoy for most of the way !

In the rush to make statements about other horses people seem to be sticking to their preconceived views on Jezki. The difference of a couple of lengths from last year was easily made up with him jumping the last two better by the fact that he had Geraghty on board in the champion and crucially that he always had the horse in the right positions. People who dismissed him pre race and yet argued the case on behalf of MTOY were being illogical. That was one of the reasons why the race was so hard to call this season ante post.

jezki had to be right there on last years form,im mccoys biggest fan but the ride he got before the ch was poor to say the least,i think if jezki and mtoy ran against each other 10 times they would finish within a length of each other,people were coming on here saying..place lay of the meeting..biggest load of shiite ive ever heard !

^^^ easy to say now

Perhaps not in such strong terms but people were questioning such assertions in the run up to the race.

MTOY not entered @ Aintree surprise /surprise.

Going to ayr isn't he

sorry geoff m not my greatest idea,but howdi if your saying that about my comment,who created threads like,choose jezki ap and 12-1 jezki massive value,have a look back at all the threads,if anyone fancied mtoy jezki had to be there !

I do remember Cufc saying place laying jezki would be the worst bet at the festival i remember it cos i was one of the people who said they were doing it on the thread

plenty are saying MTOY will beat Jezki if he learns to settle.

Were my eyes deceiving me or was not Jezki the more keen of the pair in the first half mile of the Champion Hurdle?

Don't think Jezki has been given the credit he deserves.... apart from the fact that he should have been an honourable second to The New One

Think it was definitely the best Champion Hurdle in the last 8-9 years going back to the Hardy Eustace era, if not a shade better. Why should any of the 1-2-3 not want to come back for another crack next year, they are very closely matched and race tactics / luck in running could see a different result on the day.

This year finally proved once and for all that Hurricane Fly nowhere near the same horse at Cheltenham as he is on flatter tracks in Ireland. The times of the 2013 Supreme / Champion Hurdles already told you MTOY and Jezki were better horses than him, let alone the sectional times of TNO the following day.

no prob cufc.

I think MTOY would certainly benefit from settling better and would give him more chance of winning top races.
Whether that means he would beat Jezki TNO and others I aint sure, but yes I agree Pedro,why not all 3 turn up again next year,that would be great if they did.

Looks like its all systems go for Scottish Champion Hurdle for MTOY. Nice to see a real class hurdler back up @ Ayr renewal.

All the gear for My Tent
Nicky Henderson has confirmed that My Tent Or Yours will wear both earplugs and a hood in Saturday's QTS Scottish Champion Hurdle. 47 mins ago

fascinating to see how he takes to that.....it would be fantastic if it worked.

The Tent is going to batter the holy **** out of that field. Please God let him settle while doing it.

Big race for MTOY today. I didn't think he would go to Ayr, but i really hope he wins.

For the spirit of the thread, i've had 14 points between 11/10 and evens.

Worst I've seen him jump ever....hood don't work, next stop...blindfold?

That's a better performance than it looks. Always going to be difficult to give the weight away. The winner and second both well suited to Ayr.

That was hardly an ideal race for a puller like MTOY.
He was cooked going to the last after being hard held all the way.
It's possible that Henderson sent him there because he's still taking him to Ireland in May and he doesn't want him too keen after a couple of months off.

He's certainly a lot better than he looked there that's for sure.

I believe the connections of MTOY have said he's not going to Ireland.
We'll see.

I know the 5yos in the Champion Hurdle stats, but at 33/1 TOGER ROLL appeals as a horse who should:
a) Be targeted at the race.
b) Improve for his only 3 career runs, possibly markedly more than any other recent Triumph Hurdle winner.
c) Have the scope to shorten a lot, from his current price.

For me, as an AntePost follower he sticks out as the only one in the field worth a few quid at current prices, before he runs at Punchestown at the end of this month.  If he ran and won well, improving again, I could see the price halving.

Have a feeling we may have seen the last of the Tent over hurdles and fences low loom. Might get home a bit better over fences.

Not something Hendo does very often, but the simplest solution for Tent is to consider letting him bowl along in front over hurdles. Always the best way to settle a freegoer imo.

yeh, because he can go as fast as he wants and gets knackered at half way and doesn't pull for the last mile.

needs summer off as do we soon. I always enjoy the break as I follow the racing so intensely for months during the winter.

^
agree.....I play the flat just as much, but without the same passion that the jumps generates, the addiction to posting on numerous flat debates just isn't there....thank god.

Each to their own bt the fat leaves me totally cold.

Agree but only just over 6 months to the Charlie Hall Chase.

Great performance by Faugheen today.

At last we have a horse, FAUGHEEN, capable of a 180-rating in the Champion Hurdle, its been a long wait, but with good-health, next may a great Champion will be crowned.

He hammered 6 140-150 rated horses by a 20-25 length performance, after being heavily eased to win by a long-looking 12L.

That makes him 170+ in his Novice year, which is virtually unheard of.

No Mullins messing next year, this is a one-horse entry, for him.s the others can go up in trip or chasing.

I cant wait to see him in the flesh at Prestbury Park.

Presumably Faugheen will be targeted at the Champion now, with Vautour aimed at the Arkle. Faugheen has looked massively impressive in his last two runs over hurdles and would be my early fancy for next years Champion, if I've got Willie's plans right, which is a big if.

I love MTOY and think he has tons of ability, but I've given up in hoping he's ever going to settle properly. This year's Champion was a cracking field, but, with the addition of Faugheen, next year's could be even better.

180+ SLOW DOWN

The one reservation about yesterday is that the time was virtually the same as the low grade handicap shortly after. Faugheen could not be crabbed in any way but I was left wondering whether he beat much at all on the day. For backers and layers, the fact must be faced that Mullins is extremely unlikely to plot paths to the Champion for more than one of Faugheen, Vautour, Un De Sceaux and Annie Power (and lets not discount Hurricane Fly in case he beats Jetzki on Friday). When he believes he has one that can win a Championship race at Cheltenham, he always aims the others elsewhere. You'd be brave to back Faugheen at around 6 for the Champion.

^
especially when vautour made such a visible impression on mullins at the festival, he practically fell over at the mere suggestion that faugheen was as good as vautour, it'll take a lot more than yesterday's run to shift that mindset....such a fantastic hurdler at pace is vautour.

Very interesting discussion. My own view is at this stage he has potentially five runners Mullins could go for the champion with at this specific moment but I personally would be inclined to whittle those down to one. In reverse order I don't care what happens between Hurricane and Jezki this week. No way is Hurricane going to be a major player at next years festival. He was comfortably left behind this year and will be 11 by next year. Both Annie and Un are six. Same age as Jezki and the ideal age to be running in a champion. For whatever reason neither was considered good enough for this years race. I don't really see much changing next season.

So we are left with two visually outstanding novices from this season. I had another look at both of their races from Cheltenham a couple of days ago and you'd be happy to go the war with either of them in a champion hurdle. What is funny is how things can change in your mind when you are looking for something specific. Prior to looking I'd have said that Faugheen on looks was the more imposing scopey looking horse. My view changed after watching both and also their jumping. Vatour to me is the more physically imposing horse and looks to have tremendous scope for jumping a fence. His jump at the last was breath taking in scope.

I think they wanted to find out if the impression created by Faugheen that he had plenty of speed for dropping back was accurate. I think they more than got that answer yesterday. So my personal view is that Faugheen will be their number one hope for the champion next year and Vatour could be their Arkle horse.

The snag with faugheen is that his potential achilles heel, i.e. jumping at CH pace will still be there to be answered on the day of the race as it won't be answered through the season in Ireland.

Seemed to jump better at 2 mile pace yesterday but to be sure I'd be holding my breath at the third last going champion pace.

Howdi, been waiting such a long time for a really stand-out Champion, I am chomping athe the bit to see FAUGHEEN breeze through the opposition already.

Be careful with end of season form lot of knackered horses.

Indeed Howdi my friend,wise words.
Never taken much notice of form after Cheltenham, for the following season.

Does look like its gonna be another good year for the Churdle though at this stage.

Wonder what races Un de Sceaux will be campaigned at next season??

Never taken much notice of form after Cheltenham, for the following season.

sire de grugy

Fair comment and no doubt their are others over the years,but that's my view on end of season form for the following March.
Aintree and Punchestown in my opinion have a fair few horses running that were trained for March,and I am very wary of horses not running their race.

I would not be rushing to back anything except Jezki unless I was quite sure he  not running. I didn't really rate him until CH day this year but I do now.

un de sceaux looks very ground dependant to me and he wont be getting heavy ground in English churdle....surely a French campaign?

Abbyssial is another to throw in the mix for Mullins.  Don't know what his record is for running five year olds in it, but he dispatched the best four year olds fairly easily at Punchestown, doing it the hard way from the front.

I'd much rather be on Jezki at the prices at the moment than TNO or Faugheen; but not even the thought of a bet in this until some time in 2015.

MTOY wins it next year.

I'm thinking it will be Jezki.

Looking forward to it already

Faugheen is going to go down in history as one the greats, nothing will touch it. Wins Champion Hurdle 2015.

Agreed Foolsgold

That performance at the end of the season by Faugheen was the performance of the season for me...brutal. Did it remind anyone of a young Denman? Interesting comment from mullins after the fez though saying Vautour was 'different league'...got it wrong or bullshit?

More I see of last years Champion though the more I don't think Jezki was given enough credit.