Gold Cup - My take on events.

You could be right about the opposite side of the track but I believe that the pace was just a bit too fast leading to Lord Windermere being able to make up around 20 lengths from the third last. I don't believe that he would have been able to do that if the leaders hadn't stopped big time. Bobsworth and Silviniano were rolling about like drunken soldiers from the last fence. It could have been the ground but the pace was also a big factor.

Yep I'd agree with that.

Inbetween the 2nd last and last fence you would think the race was between Bobs ans Conti, but the complexion of the race changed very quickly.
Bobs and Conti fell into a hole after the last, maybe they went for home too early, but the other three on the near side charged up the hill.

I am no time student, but just watching Russell drop out the winner Lake Windermere to be almost detached at the back of the pack early on suggests to me that he thought they were going too quick.....

if you listened to Fehily and Henderson in their interviews both said there were no excuses

"Barry said he felt it was all happening a bit quick and his jumping wasn't as slick as it could be" NJH

and paraphrasing what Fehily said he didn't want to be in front jumping the last, if he could do it again he would arrive later and there were no excuses

and I'm not guessing coz I've taken the quotes from the replay

Ming I have to disagree with that - Russell didn't have much choice in where the winner was placed early on, in fact he was doing everything he could just to keep it in touch. Very, very strange conclusion to that race, BW was absolutely obliterated at the end, there's no way Geraghty would have misjudged the pace so badly on honest ground. It's a sorry tale but I'm afraid I don't have to look any further than 'selected watering' to find an answer. Totally ruined and unfortunately the precedent has been set now...

in fact he was doing everything he could just to keep it in touch.

because they were going too quick

One of the crucial pieces of this jigsaw in my opinion is the second On My/His own. He was on that far rail when passed by Silvy, Bob's Worth and Lyreen Legend. He demolishes all other theories beause they were going conforably at this tie and he seemed to have run his race. Two quick? He lead almost from flag fall. He was going nowhere when they went past him and then were going away from him into the home straight. Then the jockey switched him out and that move was covered by the jockey on Lord Windermere. From looking like he was going to be beaten 10 lengths into the straight after the second last he switched off the rail and then ran on past Silvy and BW again as if his ar5e was on fire and took lengths out of them after the last.

The winner of the gold cup:

Simon Claisse.

"Barry said he felt it was all happening a bit quick and his jumping wasn't as slick as it could be" NJH

Ironically, thought he jumped and travelled much better than last year where he looked beat coming down the hill.
This time Bobs was going more easily at the bottom of the hill and just when you thought he'd sweep by and go clear, he folded.

My thoughts exactly. He was in the perfect position turning in and hadn't been asked for maximum effort. I was counting my winnings and thought he would win by 5 lengths.

Lord Windermere is a thorough stayer who was held up off the pace, so was entitled to be finishing well,and had previous good course form.
The Giant Bolster loves better ground and is a proven placed horse in the Gold Cup.
No surprise to me that they were there at the end of the race.

On his own is another real stayer,and obviously underestimated(certainly by me). He was leading the race, got a tad outpaced when the pace increased and then ran on again, which is not a great surprise as hes considered a national horse.

Bobsworth to me is usually a pretty lazy traveller who often needs rousting at stages, this allows him to have something left which gives him that ability to stay well.This time he travelled much better and that suggests to me that by doing that he was using up energy he didn't last year.

Sil Conti has me a bit puzzled though,and I reallyn thought he was the fairly easy winner at the last,as he stays well enough imo. I can only put it down to the ground being a tad too good for him, he has top class form on soft.

Bl00dy good race though......whatever you think of it all!!!

The run of Bobs Worth is very easy to assess...

2013 Gold Cup - 7m 5.06s
2014 Gold Cup - 6m 43.88s

He's a slow horse.

Silviniaco Conti was worried out of the finish. When Bobs Worth jinked he veered right, saw the horses coming and veered left and didn't go on with his effort. Blinkers next year for him.

^ If only it were as simple as that!

Take a look at Bob's Worth winning time in RSA in 2012 on similar ground, average time 15.02 secs per furlong vs 15.24 secs per furlong in this year's Gold Cup - obviously there are other discrepancies such as the fact that the RSA is on the old course and the Gold Cup is 2 furlongs longer.

My suspicion is that the race does n't bear too much analysis and if it were ran 10 different times on the same course and the same day (Friday), the result would be in some way different every time.

Bob and Silvi might well have got a bit lonely and there may be something in the theory that the other three benefited from racing each other, possibly on faster ground over on that side of the course.

The run of Bobs Worth is very easy to assess...

2013 Gold Cup - 7m 5.06s
2014 Gold Cup - 6m 43.88s

He's a slow horse.


2013 = Soft ground
2014 = Good ground

dwm767, what did you work out as your Going Correction per furlong for both years in coming to that conclusion?

Yep. He's a right old slow coach. So slow he kicked Sire De Grugy over the rails over two miles hurdling at Kempton and beat Cue Card over two and a half on his first chase start at Newbury.

Plenty of other races last week showed how hard it is to get from the turn in to the line from the front. Champagne Fever, Glens Melody, Hidden Cyclone, Deputy Dan to name a few. That has always been a feature of Cheltenham, especially on the new course. I still think Davy Russell won the Gold Cup by saving energy for 2.5 miles when the others were going a fraction too quick. Having said that, he was the RSA winner, and if you ignored his other runs this year, he was not such a shock winner. 20/1 was quite short for a horse with his recent form (generally 33 in the morning) so a lot of people must have thought he would win.

I have to be honest and say I got the Gold Cup completely and utterly wrong this year and it ended what was my worst year of punting at Cheltenham. I thought Bob, Silvi and Last Instalment were the only players in the race in the win market. I am convinced the form of the race will not hold up and stand the test of time. I dont think im talking thru my pocket and I try to never do that as it irritates me when other punters do. Heres why I question the form of the race.....

Going into the race Bob was rated 180 and Silvi 177.

The 3 horses that beat Bob and Silvi were rated 152, 161 and 160 respectively. All 3 needing improvement of 16 pounds or more to win the Gold Cup unless Bob and Silvi both totally underperformed (I accept this is possible). I would however totally accept the result if one of the first 3 home were to win the race beating Bob and Silvi. I would then think 'wow hasnt Lord Windermere / On His Own / The Giant Bolster improved'. The fact that all 3 horses rated 152, 161 and 160 ALL finished infront of Bob and Silvi leads me to question what the hell has happened and the form in general. Lord Windermere managing to win the Gold Cup with form figures of -876 also leaves me questioning how on earth he has managed to win the race. After all hes not a handicapper who has been protecting his mark! I can never remember a horse winning a Gold Cup with form figures like that. Add to this the fact that Jim Culloty had 2 winners from 2 runners at the festival with his most recent success before that coming in August I have to be honest im still totally baffled with events!

I suppose results like this keep us all hooked in a way and if it was to easy we'd all get bored.

Im also convinced the further away from the stands side you went the worse the ground was. Ive watched all of Fridays races back and horses were spreading wings on the stands rail.

My point exactly. Watch the re run and stop it as they enter the straight. Who wouldn't have Silvy and Bob the two clear best horses fighting out the finish at that point?

Oh but people say they must have stopped because of the pace of the race. I can' buy this. Coming down the hill the final time you could have thrown a blanket over any number of horses. That's not a race which has ripped the guts out of em.

Like you say though. It's why we love the game.

Talking of quotes judo the winning jockey who I have a massive amount of respect for said after the race:

"I was just hunting halfway around. I didn’t think I’d get home"

In my mind he was a fortunate winner in more ways than one certainly not a vintage year Davy would seem to support that too from his quote.

The ground theory I agree has some mileage

The 3 horses that beat Bob and Silvi were rated 152, 161 and 160 respectively. All 3 needing improvement of 16 pounds or more to win the Gold Cup unless Bob and Silvi both totally underperformed (I accept this is possible).

bigben, you only have to compare Lord Windermere's winning time with the following foxhunters to see that Silvi and Bobs did indeed underperform by more than a stone.... though it's arguable that Bobs has been that much below par all season including his win at Leopardstown.

The first three in the Gold Cup didn't achieve anything they hadn't before imo. If the whole field ran again this Friday, any result would again be possible, though like you, I couldn't see much past the front three last week.

I'd suggest that past evidence has shown that Bob's Worth is eminently suited to the gold cup trip. Whilst not slow he seems to really pick up or stay on better than other horses at a certain point. Stop his last race at Leopardstown two furlongs from home and he looks beat. At the line he's going away. The RSA he wears down First Lieutenant down and wins going away. Last years gold cup he pulls 7 lengths clear mostly after the last despite looking beaten two out. This year he is legless with 100 yards to go as was Silvy. Turning in they were the only two still travelling. They stayed on that far side with Lyreen Legend and I can think of no other logical explanation for all three of those horses folding like cheap suits as the first three came from behind having looked beaten.

I'd sure liked to have been able to take a penetrometer reading from the two different lines these horses took up the straight.

How do you explain Bobs sudden loss of action after the last fence? Is he a tired horse at that point?

I can't explain it to be truthful. It looks horrible and I think the movement is exacerbated by Silvy tracking towards the horses coming on his outer after Fehily pulls his whip through. One other point to note is that it wasn't an especially fast run race. Just a few seconds quicker than the hunter where they carried 4lbs more and the second was rated 109. Who knows? They aren't machines. Maybe something on the day wasn't right. I guess we'll never know. The only thing we know with certainty is that the first three jumping the last finished out of the places and all were on that far side.

I would accept the differing ground theory until you watch the Foxhunters when Nina Carberry gives her horse the perfect ride on the outside to come and win the race.

However she is beaten by the two who have the inside berth, as you say Eet, one being the 109 rated Carsonstown Boy who raced into the straight all the way around the inner.

Just one of those things where the front two in the betting underperformed for whatever reason.

@bigben the horseman Im also convinced the further away from the stands side you went the worse the ground was. Ive watched all of Fridays races back and horses were spreading wings on the stands rail.

If so, it suggests that none of the so-called professionals had bothered to walk the course or even watch the earlier races.

@Kingchip How do you explain Bobs sudden loss of action after the last fence?

On its own, a hard landing. Coupled with the rest of the field running around, maybe they saw something that spooked them: reflection of the sun glinting on a window or camera lens?

Bobs Worth didn't have a particularly hard landing, those three horses were beat and Bobs and Conti were going away from them. Unless there was a bog after the last fence, or some 'spooking' then I just can not reasonably work it out...

If the 'spooking' was not of natural causes, then who would profit most from such a coincidence?

It was very suspicious and I remain of that opinion almost a week on.

I rewatched it a few times last night from the head on view. The three horses on the rail all veer to their right at about the same time; something appears to startle them. I'm fairly sure if the race was ran again that Conti and Bobs would finish in the top two spots. Suggestions that they'd gone too fast and the two best horses in the race didn't get home are pretty ludicrous. If they had, the three horses that passed them to the line would have been left a lot further behind.

A curious result. It will be interesting to see what Lyreen Legend does next time out.

with betting in running potential being so profitable laying conti at 1.05 on the run does give temptation for something to be happening on big race run ins getting the leader beat.conti is a top class very fit horse it shouldn't just pack in on the run in ,how could giant bolster beat conti and bobs.

cue card stopped in the king George then ran on again - perhaps they were testing the equipment.

they wont stop still stopped so watch out for the national leader veering off or stopping at the elbow.

sonic binoculars were what was used last time this thing happened - but they didn't have laying in running then its more tempting now

If you'd said Sonic Binoculars or anything like that to me before Cheltenham I'd have laughed you out of town, but those horses were spooked by something. The way they both veered away fom each other was not normal, or natural.

The only question I'd have is that why would you use something like that when the world is watching? Would the answer be that to profit from something like that you would have to have a race with huge liquidity?

"cue card stopped in the king George then ran on again - perhaps they were testing the equipment."

Bugger. That's another I backed and scratched my head about. Horses which don't stay fall away they don't stop as if not staying and then suddenly run on again.

^^^
Did you back Theatre Guide at Cheltenham ,13/12/13?

Lol. I backed all three of those. Whenever I back Conti he gets beat and whenever I oppose him he seems to win.

It was a strange race. I think the race went as many expected until the last. I can't understand why both SC &BW who are both thorough stayers fell in a hole after what wasn't an especially quick race. Interesting reading some of the theories though.

Look at R UK replay (I have looked several times). Stop the replay at 3:42:13, - 37 seconds into 'closing stages view'.

Ok take a look at the 'photographer' who is closest to SC and BW. My picture is pretty clear but not 100% clear, I can not make out what he is 'viewing' the race with - it is a telescope? 

That part of the racecourse should be fenced off better and why are people allowed to be so close to the horses there?

It was a strange race. I think the race went as many expected until the last. I can't understand why both SC &BW who are both thorough stayers fell in a hole after what wasn't an especially quick race

Masterminded 100% correct. Absolutely certain the race was "tampered" with.

Never seen one of the gamest horses in training for donkeys years, Bobs Worth, rolling around both ways like a drunk before. And despite the opinion of such as the esteemed Simon Holt who suggested the opposite, he travelled and jumped far better than he did in 2013.

He was on the bridle in the perfect position ready to strike turning in this year. Last year he was behind and not seeming to be going anywhere before then running on like a train on very soft ground. If there wasn't something wrong with the horse then you'd have to be somewhat surprised.

And have geraghty and fehily who were both best placed to comment said that it felt as if their mounts had been zapped by a ray gun or abducted by aliens or something of that ilk?

I haven't said anything like that duffy. I've stated facts. The horse was travelling better after two out this year than last. On the home turn he hadn't been asked for his effort and was ideally placed instead of like last year where he was coming from off the pace, seemingly going nowhere and being rousted. This race wasn't quickly run and the good ground should have been ideal for the horse. Last year he scampered up the hill like his arse was on fire. This year from travelling comfortably into the straight and putting distance between himself and those who fought out the finish who were being flogged he was then suddenly going nowhere and completely legless after the last.

If you didn't know the horse you'd say he didn't stay. We know that isn't true so I'm stating a simple fact that I cannot explain what happened but if anybody can give an explanation which makes sense them I'd be very interested to here what it is.

So what did geraghty or fehily say? what tests have been done on both horses and what have they revealed, I read on another thread that conti came out of the race well and is heading for aintree.

For my money,conti simply wandered off a true course simple as that as happens from time to time,I believe BW himself was affected by this and jinked himself which cost him momentum, nothing sinister at all in any of it.

If anyone thinks some bloke was stood there with a contraption best suited in a james bond novel, good luck to them, and anyone thinking that they were nobbled before the race, I'd like to know what could have them only affected on the run-in and not through the race where both were going along perfectly happily, and for that matter even on the run-in neither were dead on there feet, one wandered and the other jinked but ran to the line fair enough.

Let me put it another way. Last year Bob's Worth travelling pretty ropily came from behind amongst others The Giant Bolster. He didn't actually pass that horse until jumping two out. He then beat him by 16 lengths. In this years gold cup he turns for home 3 lengths clear of TGB and the jockey of that horse has been getting after it from the top of the hill and goes for his whip before Geraghty and then beats BW by lengths. Perhaps I'm seeking an explanation for what may be unexplainable. I'm not suggesting space men, ray guns or anything else. I'm saying it is very puzzling indeed that when asked for an effort BW didn't pick up and was passed by a horse he laughed at in the straight last year.

As I've said before I find Conti far easier to explain. Conections were convinced he would stay and he took it up a long way from home. In retrospect the jockey may just have got the horse racing sooner than ideal. After jumping the last he has his whip in the right hand and the horse starts to move over to the far rail and the jockey pulls his whip through into his left hand. Maybe that and the horse seeing the other three finishing like trains on his outside causes the horse to veer over towards them.

He'll probably dot up at Aintree now but I couldn't back him given how hard a race he had at Cheltenham.

Geraghty has said that BW was spooked by someone/thing in the crowd I think it was a florescent jacket. Also was BW as good as last season? SC I dont think stayed the trip.

As much as I love a conspiracy theory I dont think there is one here

This is a championship race right! Why are people allowed on the inside rail so close to the horses?
If you look at the photographer in the replay who is standing behind the taped off part after the last fence, he is within 4-5 metres of BW and Conti.
That is when they are 'spooked'. I am not saying they were zapped but there are too many co-incidences and I find his salmon flip at that point in the race hard to understand - Barry says he was spooked, and he was - he lost his action for no reason......

I am not saying that the photographer who tracks BW and SC as they pass him has anything other than a normal camera in his hands - pointing at the two horses.

I am saying that he is too close to the action and people should not be allowed to stand in that part of the course! 

SC went too fast according to the fractions and sectional times. BW didn't and I find his performance difficult to fathom.

Would have been interesting if Bobs Worth had gone down the outside

Conti not staying is certainly one of a number of feasible explanations for what happened in the race. As I said he was racing from a log way out. Unfortunately this begets further questions about Bobs Worth. He's closer to Conti at the second last and last than he is at the line. In the last 100 or so yards Conti is going away from Bobs Worth. If that is a non stayer we do have to return to the primary and most puzzling apsect of the race. What happened to Bob's Worth? Sure he jinked but he wasn't going past Conti even if he didn't jink and he certainly wasn't going to beat those coming on the outside.

This is a horse who has only had 14 races in his life with two last season and two this season before the gold cup. If anything he should still be slightly improving but as I said The Giant Bolster a much more exposed horse has taken about 20 lengths out of him from the second last from last years race to this.

SC went too fast according to the fractions and sectional times

Kingchip, that statement is completely at odds with the time of the following Foxhunters.

EE your theory is right of that I have very little doubt that both horses were spooked. Another thing I will add is a very laid back horse albeit inexperienced also spooked in that area of the course. Port Melon. The only thing we don't know is what spooked these horses.

Or was it pedros theory? Either way something definitely spooked them.

But to repeat myself even without the spooking which I believe can also be explaine another way I simply can't explain why when Geraghty was the last to ask his horse for it's effort it was still apparently outstayed by Conti who we are agreeing didn't stay and that is ignoring the three horses which flew past them up the stands side.

It's an enigma and sadly likely to remain one.

And if we ask the question another way by pausing a recording of the race as ther enter the home straight and ask which horse wins that race if Conti doesn't quite stay what answer do people who knew all the facts about form and how the race was run up to that point give?

And which finally even allowing for his relatively few races has Bobs Worth been asked one too many times to run hard?

where would Long Run have finished if he had run?
considering his form is matched very closely with the giant bolster

where would Long Run have finished if he had run?

interesting one that. Given he wears ear plugs, might not have been affected so much by the sonic boom....

We may never solve this one but I suspect future events might provide illumination. Lets not forget that Bob's ran extremely badly at Haydock and, while the Gold Cup was completely different in that he seemed to do everything right until the run-in, could it be that he's beginning to tire of the game? Often, the very gamest horses, who take loads out of themselves each time they run, are the ones who turn cute as they get older. Yes, Bob's has been lightly raced, but he's seldom had an easy. Either that or, of course, he may have hurt himself at the end of the race. Would not necessarily trust his stable to have come out with that info if that was the case.

Whatever, next season's Gold Cup looks at this stage the most open there's ever been. After the Denman/Kauto era, a real dearth of top staying chasers.

I was not a great Bobs Worth fan for some reason, and also thought that both races this season showed he was not as good as he was last. But as much as I was not a fan, he is undoubtedly one of the gamest NH horses in years who has outdone his natural ability and always run gunbarrel straight

I could understand it if Bobs just tired out of it up the run in. If he was hanging one way because of an injury, I could understand that too. To be rolling around both ways completely drunk like he didn't know where he was after travelling supremely well suggests another explanation is needed.

Eeternaloptimist 26 Mar 14 14:54 
And if we ask the question another way by pausing a recording of the race as ther enter the home straight and ask which horse wins that race if Conti doesn't quite stay what answer do people who knew all the facts about form and how the race was run up to that point give?


That's all very well but they are not machines and more than half the time things don't play out by what the numbers say they should.Even if all the factors leading to that point suggest what will happen next, that's all it is a suggestion, whether likely or not it doesn't mean it will happen.

at the end of the day it appears that some bloke inadvertently may have spooked bobs and conti....end of story really.

i would like to see the roll of film that guy shot as bw and sc passed him - the one staring at the corner of the taped off section.

the photographer on the grassy knoll, with the sonic boom

was the sonic boom deployed again today on conti

Conti was waiting for him this time.... ducked left and right, he threw the shooter on the grassy knoll a curve ball....

anyone else got their blanket field IR lays in place for the Topham and the National? I have