Gold Cup - My take on events.

Yep I'd agree with that.

Inbetween the 2nd last and last fence you would think the race was between Bobs ans Conti, but the complexion of the race changed very quickly.
Bobs and Conti fell into a hole after the last, maybe they went for home too early, but the other three on the near side charged up the hill.

if you listened to Fehily and Henderson in their interviews both said there were no excuses

"Barry said he felt it was all happening a bit quick and his jumping wasn't as slick as it could be" NJH

and paraphrasing what Fehily said he didn't want to be in front jumping the last, if he could do it again he would arrive later and there were no excuses

and I'm not guessing coz I've taken the quotes from the replay

in fact he was doing everything he could just to keep it in touch.

because they were going too quick

"Barry said he felt it was all happening a bit quick and his jumping wasn't as slick as it could be" NJH

Ironically, thought he jumped and travelled much better than last year where he looked beat coming down the hill.
This time Bobs was going more easily at the bottom of the hill and just when you thought he'd sweep by and go clear, he folded.

Lord Windermere is a thorough stayer who was held up off the pace, so was entitled to be finishing well,and had previous good course form.
The Giant Bolster loves better ground and is a proven placed horse in the Gold Cup.
No surprise to me that they were there at the end of the race.

On his own is another real stayer,and obviously underestimated(certainly by me). He was leading the race, got a tad outpaced when the pace increased and then ran on again, which is not a great surprise as hes considered a national horse.

Bobsworth to me is usually a pretty lazy traveller who often needs rousting at stages, this allows him to have something left which gives him that ability to stay well.This time he travelled much better and that suggests to me that by doing that he was using up energy he didn't last year.

Sil Conti has me a bit puzzled though,and I reallyn thought he was the fairly easy winner at the last,as he stays well enough imo. I can only put it down to the ground being a tad too good for him, he has top class form on soft.

Bl00dy good race though......whatever you think of it all!!!

^ If only it were as simple as that!

Take a look at Bob's Worth winning time in RSA in 2012 on similar ground, average time 15.02 secs per furlong vs 15.24 secs per furlong in this year's Gold Cup - obviously there are other discrepancies such as the fact that the RSA is on the old course and the Gold Cup is 2 furlongs longer.

My suspicion is that the race does n't bear too much analysis and if it were ran 10 different times on the same course and the same day (Friday), the result would be in some way different every time.

Bob and Silvi might well have got a bit lonely and there may be something in the theory that the other three benefited from racing each other, possibly on faster ground over on that side of the course.

Yep. He's a right old slow coach. So slow he kicked Sire De Grugy over the rails over two miles hurdling at Kempton and beat Cue Card over two and a half on his first chase start at Newbury.

I have to be honest and say I got the Gold Cup completely and utterly wrong this year and it ended what was my worst year of punting at Cheltenham. I thought Bob, Silvi and Last Instalment were the only players in the race in the win market. I am convinced the form of the race will not hold up and stand the test of time. I dont think im talking thru my pocket and I try to never do that as it irritates me when other punters do. Heres why I question the form of the race.....

Going into the race Bob was rated 180 and Silvi 177.

The 3 horses that beat Bob and Silvi were rated 152, 161 and 160 respectively. All 3 needing improvement of 16 pounds or more to win the Gold Cup unless Bob and Silvi both totally underperformed (I accept this is possible). I would however totally accept the result if one of the first 3 home were to win the race beating Bob and Silvi. I would then think 'wow hasnt Lord Windermere / On His Own / The Giant Bolster improved'. The fact that all 3 horses rated 152, 161 and 160 ALL finished infront of Bob and Silvi leads me to question what the hell has happened and the form in general. Lord Windermere managing to win the Gold Cup with form figures of -876 also leaves me questioning how on earth he has managed to win the race. After all hes not a handicapper who has been protecting his mark! I can never remember a horse winning a Gold Cup with form figures like that. Add to this the fact that Jim Culloty had 2 winners from 2 runners at the festival with his most recent success before that coming in August I have to be honest im still totally baffled with events!

I suppose results like this keep us all hooked in a way and if it was to easy we'd all get bored.

Im also convinced the further away from the stands side you went the worse the ground was. Ive watched all of Fridays races back and horses were spreading wings on the stands rail.

Talking of quotes judo the winning jockey who I have a massive amount of respect for said after the race:

"I was just hunting halfway around. I didn’t think I’d get home"

In my mind he was a fortunate winner in more ways than one certainly not a vintage year Davy would seem to support that too from his quote.

The ground theory I agree has some mileage

I'd suggest that past evidence has shown that Bob's Worth is eminently suited to the gold cup trip. Whilst not slow he seems to really pick up or stay on better than other horses at a certain point. Stop his last race at Leopardstown two furlongs from home and he looks beat. At the line he's going away. The RSA he wears down First Lieutenant down and wins going away. Last years gold cup he pulls 7 lengths clear mostly after the last despite looking beaten two out. This year he is legless with 100 yards to go as was Silvy. Turning in they were the only two still travelling. They stayed on that far side with Lyreen Legend and I can think of no other logical explanation for all three of those horses folding like cheap suits as the first three came from behind having looked beaten.

I'd sure liked to have been able to take a penetrometer reading from the two different lines these horses took up the straight.

I can't explain it to be truthful. It looks horrible and I think the movement is exacerbated by Silvy tracking towards the horses coming on his outer after Fehily pulls his whip through. One other point to note is that it wasn't an especially fast run race. Just a few seconds quicker than the hunter where they carried 4lbs more and the second was rated 109. Who knows? They aren't machines. Maybe something on the day wasn't right. I guess we'll never know. The only thing we know with certainty is that the first three jumping the last finished out of the places and all were on that far side.

@bigben the horseman Im also convinced the further away from the stands side you went the worse the ground was. Ive watched all of Fridays races back and horses were spreading wings on the stands rail.

If so, it suggests that none of the so-called professionals had bothered to walk the course or even watch the earlier races.

@Kingchip How do you explain Bobs sudden loss of action after the last fence?

On its own, a hard landing. Coupled with the rest of the field running around, maybe they saw something that spooked them: reflection of the sun glinting on a window or camera lens?

It was very suspicious and I remain of that opinion almost a week on.

A curious result. It will be interesting to see what Lyreen Legend does next time out.

If you'd said Sonic Binoculars or anything like that to me before Cheltenham I'd have laughed you out of town, but those horses were spooked by something. The way they both veered away fom each other was not normal, or natural.

The only question I'd have is that why would you use something like that when the world is watching? Would the answer be that to profit from something like that you would have to have a race with huge liquidity?

Bugger. That's another I backed and scratched my head about. Horses which don't stay fall away they don't stop as if not staying and then suddenly run on again.

Lol. I backed all three of those. Whenever I back Conti he gets beat and whenever I oppose him he seems to win.

Look at R UK replay (I have looked several times). Stop the replay at 3:42:13, - 37 seconds into 'closing stages view'.

Ok take a look at the 'photographer' who is closest to SC and BW. My picture is pretty clear but not 100% clear, I can not make out what he is 'viewing' the race with - it is a telescope? 

That part of the racecourse should be fenced off better and why are people allowed to be so close to the horses there?

He was on the bridle in the perfect position ready to strike turning in this year. Last year he was behind and not seeming to be going anywhere before then running on like a train on very soft ground. If there wasn't something wrong with the horse then you'd have to be somewhat surprised.