Hurricane Fly

And yes I am talking through my pocket. I did think though that they would have seen sense.

He's smashed Our Conor twice already..... won't be any different next week. MTOY won't get up the hill.  TNO might make him work hard, but can't see the champ losing

It sounds more like you are talking through your arse to me

Forget about how old he is. He's only a couple of months older than his last run, which he won comfortably. He's a top horse, and has to have a big chance. Haven't backed him myself, but he's the champion.

Some threads on betfair still make me smile. Mud loving Hurricane

5/1? That's funny. Or maybe we should have a spread bet. I'll buy shorter than 5/1 off you.

I think 6/4 him to go off fav is a cracking bet and I've had a big cut at that. Going for his 3rd Champion Hurdle, Ruby/Mullins could have a winner on the board already by the time he runs. Customary for us Irish to pile into him at the track like every year. The other horses will have their fans but this lad will be smashed up as always. Should be odds on to be fav.

Mar 5, 2014 -- 11:07PM, CVByrne wrote:

Some threads on betfair still make me smile. Mud loving Hurricane

That's right up there with the old favourite 'He only beats the same old horses' and the classic from 2011 'No Montjeu can win at the Festival'

I think he is better suited by a soft ground race. His opponents are likely to benefit from an improvement in ground conditions while he might improve to, he won't to the same extent as the others.

Of the main contenders, I am shocked at just how short a price Our Conor is. Should be 8/1+.

Our Conor is my back-up choice to My Tent or Yours. I think there's a feeling out there that he'll improve for a variety of reasons:

1. Better ground
2. The track
3. Hughes will have him ready for the big day ala Hardy Eustace 2004.

It's all speculation though. He definitely needs to improve. The 2lbs he got from Hurricane Fly and Jezki in the Irish Champion should not be forgotten about either.

CVByrne
05 Mar 14 23:07
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Some threads on betfair still make me smile. Mud loving Hurricane




would you not argue he is a far superior horse on soft ground??? laugh all you want C.V he is imo a mud lark who would be inconvenienced by good ground but has handled it in weaker races...would you say he will perform to the same high level if it were good ground next week

When Our Conor destroyed the oppo in the Triumph it was soft ground and hammering down with rain. I don't see why ground has been against him in Ire. His price is all about what is expected rather than anything else.

It was Soft when HF won last year, too. He got beat the year it was GS.

A mud lark? Jeezo same people will no doubt say he isn't that good at Cheltenham.

The Fly supposedly not a good traveller....

....raced only 3 times outside Ireland.. 2 CH wins would seem to put that theory to bed...but "not right" when 3rd to ROR....still leaves some room for doubt...

Got outpaced down the hill last year...then allowed to get back into it. Far stronger field, with a faster pace on spring ground could see the 10yo first off the bridle again..

Not for me at the price.

He only had one run when he was 3rd so obv bad prep. (Big bucks is goin down in similar fashion)

Its not just the ground that's gone against The Fly, there's also the supplementation of Captain CeeBee. So potentially, a fast run race on goodish ground. I'm sure the Fly would prefer a crawl on soft.

There's doubts about MTOY though, and I'm confident the Irish will smash into it. Hope so, I want to lay it cheap before the off.

I was joking a bit about him being a mud lark as he tends to run in soft or heavy ground mostly - well he is an Irish hurdler. However if you look at his form he did seriously disappoint in Rock On Ruby's good going champion and his very best efforts do seem to be on heavy going.

Of course there may be reasons why he ran badly before on good ground but I can see not a single bit of form on good ground that matches his admittedly champion form on boggy ground.

I see he is already drifting on here, .2 points already with more to come. He is already second favourite, and may yet struggle to go off in the first 2 in the betting.

Not saying he cannot win, but he will be a longer price the dryer the ground

same as mary hope they pile into fly an gonna lay and place lay!

11113 on good ground.

The 3rd being after a poor prep. One of the wins in a good ground champion hurdle.

what year was the good ground!

so your saying ballydoyle

his form indicates that he is just as effective on good ground, as he is on soft/heavy?? correct or not??

He's as good on good ground as he is on heavy, the difference is more of his rivals are troubled by bad ground which increases his chances in those races. Still his best ever performance came on good ground at Punchestown in 2011.

harry callaghan 06 Mar 14 22:17 Joined: 10 Nov 07 | Topic/replies: 2,586 | Blogger: harry callaghan's blog
CVByrne
05 Mar 14 23:07
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Some threads on betfair still make me smile. Mud loving Hurricane


would you not argue he is a far superior horse on soft ground??? laugh all you want C.V he is imo a mud lark who would be inconvenienced by good ground but has handled it in weaker races...would you say he will perform to the same high level if it were good ground next week


This again makes me smile. Fly, a mudlark!! He's won 2 Champion Hurdles on g2s / good ground. Along with a few more at Punchestown on good. Horse is just a class act.

Everyone is entitled to an opinion and I'm forever thankful for the negative opinions that have constantly surrounded this horse mainly in England as it has resulted in fantastic odds and profits from backing him over the years.

I'm just looking forward to Tuesday. Glad Captain Cee Bee is entered, will be a good gallop set and no going too quick too early like last year or too slow. Will be proper run race.

Okay if you want to get into detail, he got stuffed on his first 4 starts on good ground before finally getting going on some nice boggy ground. Having won 2 soft ground races he then ran poorly a few times on good ground.

He did win once on good to firm but this was a maiden hurdle. Aside from that his best good ground form was when scrapping home from Solwit on good ground, and just scraping home in a desperate finish from Pedlar's Cross. His only other runs on good ground since have been when running badly (for him) against Rock on Ruby.

His brilliant form when the mud really flies is in stark contrast to his form when the going is better.

I think he is going to drift (already is) and serious professionals with  real eye for the form book will certainly not be interested in backing him at shorter than 5/1 if at all.

You gonna put some up then try 4/1 see what happens!

fair comment that C.V in regards ground

however i still think the figure given that day was ridiculous considering most of them had run at aintree or ran badly in there last run or were over the top

he has always been hard to gauge for me because of all his victories against thousand stars and solwhit but his best performances were against solwhit imo who i also regarded as a top notcher in his own right, who also loved soft

sintonian 06 Mar 14 22:25 Joined: 21 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 23,133 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
It was Soft when HF won last year, too. He got beat the year it was GS.

If you believe that going then you've still got a bit to learn about racing sint. Have a dig around about times and how they are best indicator of official going. Don't trust one man and his going stick. Last year was quicker ground than 2011.

CVByrne

He is certainly a much undervalued horse, indeed he is a great champion.

He is though on the evidence of the form book a better horse on deep going and the opposition this year looks a deal more challenging than when he ran on good ground against Solwit (won by a neck) , Peddlars Cross (won by a neck) and Rock On Ruby (back in 3rd place)

he'll have a job stevo some footballer wants over 20k on

hes deff a better horse on soft that's for sure the ground this year will be a lot quicker and imo will catch him out against his younger rivals

Anyways cant wait to find out should be a cracking race.

Harry for me his best performance was routing the field in 2011 on good ground at Punchestown. Ruby was looking through his legs as Fly sauntered by. Horse is just a class act and the best thing is he just wins, whatever way the race is run, what ever happens he just finds a way to win.

Ruby Walsh has given him 2 bad rides back to back at Cheltenham. I think with Captain Cee Bee in there Ruby will know what is going to happen as the others will. Going to just be a case of best horse wins. To my eye it's still Hurricane Fly, but I know from experience age usually rears its head first in the cauldron of Cheltenham.

You just never know until the race is run if time has caught up. Can't wait for Tuesday, am looking forward to every race that day.

It's that time of year again when the doubters are out in force.

Doesn't travel
Doesn't get up the hill

And this years installment, he's a mudlark .

Forgot Montjeus don't win at Cheltenham as well!

cryoftruth 06 Mar 14 22:53 Joined: 22 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 3,096 | Blogger: cryoftruth's blog
CVByrne

He is certainly a much undervalued horse, indeed he is a great champion.

He is though on the evidence of the form book a better horse on deep going and the opposition this year looks a deal more challenging than when he ran on good ground against Solwit (won by a neck) , Peddlars Cross (won by a neck) and Rock On Ruby (back in 3rd place)

Did you leave out Punchestown 2011 on purpose as it was his best ever performance and so would not help your argument against him acting on good ground? You put in Solwhit from 2010 race so wonder why you left out 2011

Horse is just a complete legend. 3 career losses, and only 1 since 2009 !!!


Anyway, he's a 10yo we've all got opinions formed on him by now that are not going to Change. I just hope the best horse wins on Tuesday. I am a big fan of Champions going down fighting to the younger new brigade and not retiring at the top.

stevo1 06 Mar 14 22:56 Joined: 21 Oct 06 | Topic/replies: 2,367 | Blogger: stevo1's blog
Anyways cant wait to find out should be a cracking race.

Aye, so glad CCB has been supplemented. Can't wait.

Gents,

This whole saga with the Fly makes me laugh.I'm sure CV Byrne will concur. WM have dropped 2 of the best horses in his stable (Both would come close to winning this CH imo)for this one horse. I suspect like us all people have taken their position against the Fly & are just trying to convince themselves. WM is a serious horse trainer & the Irish take racing seriously. they have no room for sentiment. Last year the 'straw grabbers' was crabbing that he was 9yr old & stats said it was impossible for him to beat his juniors. The latest crab is the state of the ground. Looking the at the form HF stands head & shoulders above the other participants and the Irish duly expect him to deliver. Ruby Walsh is a tactical genius & I suspect come Tuesday afternoon will all see why AP & UDS were taken out of this race. I may be bias as the Fly is my favourite all time horse. Remember these words... The Irish do not deal with sentiment & I believe HF & Ruby will fully dismantle the English horses. Best of luck with all bets.

^ what about the other Irish horses?

There is no doubt he's better on soft ground, but the ground will be fairly similar to last year, so don't think that's a big issue. I don't understand the opening comment that he has struggled this year, he's won 2 more grade 1s against the best of the Irish. I do think this is the best field he's faced though, and he will need to put up his best Cheltenham performance to win imo. Which connections seem to think is very likely.

Well the race has got me stumped and so I'll sit down with a nice single malt and watch events unfold. One things for sure even though I won't bet. If The Fly does come to win it irrespective of my comments about Mullins and the other horses I'll be shouting him home every bit as loudly as I did when Denman and Kauto came down the hill eye balling each other.

Some serious rubbish being spouted on this thread.

Hurricane Fly is simply a top class racehorse who acts on any ground.
He has top class form on every type of going that backs that up.

Maybe others don't act so well on soft or heavy and that would give HF more chance of victory...that I can accept,but to say hes a better horse on soft is simply cr&p, and as for Mudlark.

Hes just a class act lads.
His age is possibly against him this year, and another horse could improve past him of course, but don't use the ground as a reason to try and get him beat...that wont work!!!

The OP's initial post is the greatest load of tripe I've ever read on this forum..

Beat peddlers cross by a neck??? Give up the game.... The Fly will absolutely destroy this field and if you had un de sceaux and annie power in it, the result wud be the same....

Be as patronising as you like CV but the official description was Soft. Had it not have been then ROR would have gone close to beating him.

Interesting that so many people claim that this year's race is far stronger than last year. Very difficult to judge these things in advance. The bare form of what the English contenders have achieved is far below what's needed to win a Champion. We don't know if MTOY will get up the hill better than last year and we don't know if TNO is a genuine contender over two miles as the only time he's run against a top two miler over that distance he was beaten (please don't bring up Rock on Ruby at Kempton).
I remember the excitement a few years back when Detroit City (6/4) and Straw Bear (7/1) from England faced up to the might of Hardy Eustace (3/1) and Brave Inca (11/2) for Ireland in what was heralded as a classic. In the event, Detroit City never went a yard, Straw Bear showed himself to be miles off that class and the two Irish horses cut each others' throats and they were all chinned by Sublimity.
Yes, a potential classic ahead but lets not get carried away too soon.

The bare form of what the English contenders have achieved is far below what's needed to win a Champion


.....  meanwhile the 13yo Captain Cee Bee finished in amongst the three Irish lads only beaten 2 3/4 lengths by Hurricane Fly last time?

And didn't finish much further behind the time before, suggesting the Irish form this season ain't worth a hill of beans.

Will be absolutely no surprise if Jezki or Our Conor turn it around if Captain sets up a decent gallop..... the nightmare scenario for Mullins which he has done everything to try and avoid

The bare form of what the English contenders have achieved is far below what's needed to win a Champion

Bolloxx.

Explain.

I have been against the great Fly for this all season and with a solid pace now looking likely and decent ground also likely, I am more against him than ever. They'll go too quick early and midway through the race, and the class opposition will be too much at a track he doesn't like. Personally would be surprised if Our Conor doesn't finish ahead of him, and that might not even be enough for that mighty young contender to win the race.

He is the horse of a lifetime and if he wins I will be there to cheer him in and will hold my hands up and admit I was massively wrong.

Credit to you Tom. Nail your colours but be ready to accept we all get it wrong. I'd say exactly the same in reverse. If the Fly gets beat, so be it and, if he gets beat by TNO, then I've read this race completely wrong.
Few seem to have noticed just how much ground HF put between himself and OC last time out in the final hundred yards. Last flight mistake cost him momentum but, once over that, he disposed of OC readily. Yes, as someone says, Cheltenham finds out the Champions in decline and it will happen one day. But not this time I believe. Ground worries me not at all.

I am 100% with you Tom and the horse is even more fantastic than I thought if he pulls it off.

Last flight mistake cost him momentum but, once over that, he disposed of OC readily.

.... and beat Captain Cee Bee 2 3/4 lengths? Difficult to understand how anyone can rely on that as solid form remotely good enough to win a Champion.....

pedro, if you use a single horse to devalue the form, then how do you account for TNO against Jumps Road?

same reason, cyclops, slow pace.

My point is not that neither horse is a serious horse, but that the form of those races means nothing as far as Tuesday is concerned if they go a decent pace..... and why any of the first five in the market could win it they do

Thats true Pedro but they will all have to improve to beat HF and thats a fact m8

"far below" is just bolloxx.

The New One and My Tent or Yours are just not far below Hurricane Fly based on form. They are slighly behind, not far below. If they were far below they would be trading at Jezki's price.

Neptune winners do well in this and The New One has taken Zarkandar and Rock on Ruby apart who were close up in Champion Hurdles. My Tent has already taken care of Jezki and is on a par with The New One based on Xmas Hurdle running.

People are forgettin ghte two horses behind TNO & MTOY at Kempton are rated 150 and 147. They were pumped 28 lengths. These two horse will fight out the finish. They are progressing.

Exactly. Hurricane Fly a great horse but he's 10 and these two are younger and upcoming. The New One's turn of foot is deadly. Favourite on here for as long on here....not bad for a horse that is "far below" standard.

Marito and Captain Cee Bee would be rounding the home turn in the xmas hurdle after these two had jumped the last. Different gravy to these things the Fly has been running against.

Ballydoyle, there have been many horses over the years trading at short prices for the Champion who have been exposed in the race as not up to the standard required - Back in Front, Rhinestone Cowboy, Detroit City, Menorah etc. I believe TNO will join that list.

Thats true Pedro but they will all have to improve to beat HF and thats a fact m8

yet if you analyse the sectionals from Chelt last year, both TNO and MTOY will wipe the floor with Hurricane Fly.

Many will say the Champion was more strongly run mid-race, but as have written elsewhere, Hurricane had the easiest run of the first four home, yet was all out to score in not beating them by far. Those held up were beaten even further so didn't benefit from being held up off a supposed strong pace. The Champion form has also been devalued constantly since.

It's absolutely clear Hurricane needs a slow pace / sprint to win against a probably stone better field then last year .... anything else and his chances recede dramatically.

Well I think he's got a right good chance.

Our Conor beat that Sameategal 17 lengths in Triumph and he's been close up behind the Fly...these two had that thing 28 lengths behind at Christmas.

We'll see how it all pans out on Tuesday.

As has been said before, Pedro, by that reckoning Medinas, who ran the same course as TNO an hour later in 5.5 seconds quicker, carrying 3 lbs more, is a great champion (not to mention the horses that followed him home.) Every race is different; pointless to pick out random sectionals to make an argument.
As for using Sametegal as a yardstick - that really is clutching at straws. A horse who's regressing rapidly.

Can only go by what's being beating what...Rock On Ruby runner up in Champ by 2 murdered 10 by The New One...Zarkandar beat by 6 in same Champ...beat by 6 by the New One also.

Don't kid yourself with certain forumites on here who are President and Vice President of the Willie Mullins fan club.

Hurricane Fly is a great horse but the other trainers are no mugs. They know what they've got, they are open to improvement and are ready to go.

TNO was made favourite for this years race after he beat Rule The World and an out of sorts Pont Alex and then finished a length ahead of Thousand Stars when beaten by Zarkander. TNO is a chaser. Its a joke he has been the favourite for this race. He does not jump hurdles properly either and if he is still anyway in contention at the last he will fluff it on Tuesday. He'll be in the RSA next year against Annie Power.

Be surprised if the Fly makes the first 3.

Arklearkle...all you've quoted there is last year's form. He's since blown Zarkandar away and took Rock on Ruby's head off. He was a novice at Aintree. You're not seriously telling me he hasn't improved this year?

I dont know but I would ask which Zarkander and which ROR did he beat. Very little between Jezki and MTOY last year. MTOY beats TNO this year and Jetski is beaten twice in Ireland.

Didn't beat Zarkander with anything like the authority that Annie Power did. And he does seem to be in decline.

cant believe people knock the Fly.
He is far and away best Ive seen IMO. When he quickened away as a novice at Leop I marked him down as class.
I believe he would have beaten Istabraq on any ground.
Maybe he doesnt like Chelt quite as much but I'm not sure he has been ridden to get the best out of him there.
As a 10 yo the stats are against him, but I really do hope he wins.
I like Twisters horse and had a right do on him in the novice race last year. The race will be run to suit him. Dont fancy My tent at all and think the race will be between The New One and Our Conor even if he is only 5. Cant back any horse at 10 for any champ race.

The Fly doesn't have any flaws.He may have been first off the bridle last year but came back onto it again,at which point it was all over bar the shouting.He is not ground dependent.He is the toughest horse in training which makes his true ability so hard to gauge.When beaten 2 years ago he just wasn't right(fell in next time in Punchestown from Zaidpour I think).It wasn't the ground,it wasn't the ride he got,he just wasn't right,couldnt quicken and his pure toughness got him third.
I rate him the best I've seen without any doubt.I havnt seen any noticeable decline in him this year.Maybe he has and we will find out on Tuesday but to me he's looked to have had plenty up his sleeve every time this year again.
One thing is for certain,if he is even within 5 lbs of his peak-self he will win again,cos of the 4 pretenders,none stand out from the rest.I doubt very much if 4 superstars have come along at the same time seeing as we've only had 2 in the last 30 years.

yep,totally agree.

5/1? That's funny. Or maybe we should have a spread bet. I'll buy shorter than 5/1 off you.  Should have taken it, and other who were so rude.

6/1 now available with a major booky tomorrow. And you scoffed when I predicted 5/1.

I hope the Hurricane fans waited a while for the proper price!

The 6/1 is a limited offer. You should not confuse Cheltenham specials with true market value

COT

He is far and away best Ive seen IMO

The best I ever saw was Night Nurse, although a few more nearly as good were Monksfield, Comedy of Errors, Lanzarote, and especially the brilliant but ill fated Golden Cygnet. I also think Istabraq was better.

The Hurricane is a great hurdler though. Its just I am old and remeber the real golden age of hurdlers, and they were very good.

Yep. Hurricane has had enough chances to do what Istabraq did to his fields at Cheltenham and it's never happened. Anybody who thinks he's the best ever must be very young and simply cannot remember orerhaps even know of the great hurdlers of the golden age.

If you look at times as a reliable source for the going, then looking at the times of the last 3 supremes, it reads;

2011; good
2012; good
2013; good/soft.

It will be good ground tomorrow and imo not as ideal for the Fly.

Either way its the race of the meeting on paper and we are all lucky the 5/6 of them have all made it to the race injury free. CAN'T WAIT

I can remember them too but Comedy of Errors is a bit hazy.All really good horses for sure.Golden Cygnet looked the real deal but never got the chance to prove himself an all time great.Was Night Nurse better than Monkdfield or Sea Pigeon? It was a golden era but they were always beating each other a bit like the era of Hardy,Brave Inca,Macs Joy,Sublimity.Istabraq was much flashier than the Fly.He could do no more than beat what was around at the time but there was nothing to beat...Theatreworld was a seasoned campaigner but hardly ever won a hurdle race.We will never know of course but I feel that the Fly would always beat Istabraq all out,but wouldn't beat Theatreworld by much more! That's it,daydream over.Bring on tomorrow.

Look at my Sea Pigeon thread on here for a bit more historical context if you fancy it.

Good thread cyclops

When looking through the first few pages of the RP this morning and seeing the results of the last 3 CHs I was struck by how little the horses behind (or in front of in 2012) Hurricane Fly have achieved since. Either they have all gone backwards or they were sub standard runnings of the race. So we have to rely on Irish form where he is unbeaten since the year dot. It boils down to Hurricane Fly confirming his superiority against Our Conor and Jetski which I think he will and the relative merits of The New One and MTOY who have dismissed Jetski and Rock On Ruby in the past. I still think MTOY is the one.

Place lay of the Fly was bang on, but my main bet was The New One. Gutted, it would have dotted up.

I await the rude people who slagged me off so roundly for observing the ground would be against a soft ground specialist like Hurricane Fly returning to apologise.

The evidence of the need for plenty of give in the ground is complete.

I am delighted.

You called it correct, fair play

a few people were right, however you weren't right about his starting price 5-1

Well seeing as we're puffing our chests out I wouldn't mind a few of those who gave me dogs abuse for saying that The Fly was a better animal in Ireland and that despite gutsing it out Cheltenham wasn't really his course to offer up their views now.

CV Byrne away to rehab?

apparently the ''times'' indicated it was good ground last year. Yeah, whatever.

A real shame what happened with Our Conor & TNO.

Hurricane Fly undoubtedly been a very good horse and possible that as a 10yo, would be unfair to crib him unduly for getting beat today.

But given the trainer and jockey's assertion that he was better than ever, you have to assume he is just not as good at Cheltenham and/or on Good ground and/or against a decent gallop.

Maybe people can accept now why he hasn't been given quite the same accolades in the UK as in Ireland? Has won two moderate Champion Hurdles and was comfortably put in his place today having travelled well against the strongest field he has probably ever faced. Ruby's response looked of shell shock afterwards. Don't think he could believe didn't pick up in the straight having gone strongly to that point, so no excuses.

Very good horse yes..... but maybe not a great one?

sintonian
11 Mar 14 21:19
Joined:
21 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 23,193 | Blogger: sintonian's blog

apparently the ''times'' indicated it was good ground last year. Yeah, whatever.



The times indicated good/soft last year, As posted above

I'd consider Hurricane Fly a great horse and I'd be careful not to label many horses as greats.

I await the rude people who slagged me off so roundly for observing the ground would be against a soft ground specialist like Hurricane Fly returning to apologise.

You were right yes, well done but he isn't a soft ground specialist or a mudlark.