Cheltenham Festival

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28 Feb 14 18:52
Date Joined: 05 Oct 11
| Topic/replies: 14,593 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog
I assume the mini-gamble has been triggered by the Kealy tip.

He has looked relatively impressive but his wins have come from bossing small fields. It is impossible to just overlook what happened when he found himself in a slightly more competitive race at a stiffer track. Scudamore couldn't see a stride and it was then basically a case of an accident waiting to happen. The Grand Annual is going to represent another massive step up again with a big field and a host of possible front runners. It could easily be race over after a couple of fences.
Pause Switch to Standard View The Support For Next Sensation
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Report Big Vern 1 March 1, 2014 7:12 PM GMT
I think it is more than just Kealy. He has won all his races hard on the bridle pulling up, and not been at all extended yet. He's generally jumped very well, bar a silly mistake. Wouldn't be at all surprised if they go the Arkle route with him, and 80/1 is a joke. 2 of the principals have only jumped fences twice, and next sensation could jump them silly. If the trainer gets his way and they go for the grand annual, I'd make him a very strong favourite.
Report Ramruma March 1, 2014 8:03 PM GMT
The first two posts are both right. Next Sensation has looked a class above the small fields he has been bossing from the front. Where do you go? Take a gamble that he is up to winning a weak Arkle or take the Grand Annual which he probably has the ability to win but will probably lose because he can't get a soft lead. The last time he stepped up in class and in field size, he unseated Tom Scu.

At the moment, he is in four races at the Festival: Grand Annual (most likely); Arkle; JLT; and Byrne Group Plate.
Report nostaw_01 March 1, 2014 8:18 PM GMT
Backed this horse for the arkle @ 80's with B365 and the Grand Annual @ 14's. His jumping is superb in the main. Really wasn't on his game that day at Newbury. Whether that was because it was better opposition putting his jumping under more pressure I am not sure, but the way he beat God's Own and that horses subsequent effort lto, mean I am willing to give him another chance at a higher level, and based on the lack of top quality horses in the arkle, I'd run there. But maybe that's my pocket talking Grin
Report differentdrum March 2, 2014 9:35 AM GMT
Gods Own isn't the best yardstick as he is better going right-handed.
Report nostaw_01 March 2, 2014 11:35 AM GMT
You're probably right, he may not be a great yardstick. But he also gave a beating to Turn Over Sivola similar to the one Hinterland did and he's 10/1 for the arkle. I may end up looking daft and he does nothing at Cheltenham or after that, but I would just say I think there are worse 80/1 shots out there, and in a weak looking arkle he could run into a place.
Report Ramruma March 2, 2014 11:45 AM GMT
If he runs, there will be worse 80/1 shots out there.

Funny thing is, up until a month ago, I thought this was a good year for novice chasers. Now it does indeed look a weak Arkle.
Report Winnerallrite March 2, 2014 5:11 PM GMT
Grand Annual 14/1 non runner no bet and fully expecting to collect
Report tomdeane March 2, 2014 7:26 PM GMT
Weak Arkle?
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 6, 2014 9:53 PM GMT
I see that Treadwell is a booked jockey for his declaration for the arkle, does this mean he might be running in the arkle  ?
Report nostaw_01 March 6, 2014 10:45 PM GMT
Would they dare try and run in both?! That would make me happy as I've backed ante post for the arkle and NRNB for the Grand Annual.
Normally I wouldn't even think this horse could place in an arkle but with only the top 6 in the betting being good enough to win this IMO I don't think he'd be without a chance of picking up place money. And yes I am pocket talking, but if we don't have hope we have nothing I suppose Excited
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