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I'm all for using trends to find winners, but one I have never understood is looking at the past record of favourites in any given race. I can see that there is a logical reason why horses that have won last time out may perform well, or horses that are of a certain age, or that carry a certain weight, or even horses that have won (or run in) A.N. other race that may tie in to the one being examined.
But the past performance of market principles gives no more logical guidance to what's going to win this year's race than the last ten tosses of a coin give to the next toss. |
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choose yr own t
rends then ^^^^ |
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Wicklow Brave now shorter than Vautour on here. Ruby picked his mount? Surely if it was issues with Vautour his price would have drifted more alarmingly than it has
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No way Walsh would have picked Vautour over WB for me, not after the defeat of TTT....he isn't shorter by the way.
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picked WB over Vautour that should be of course
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For about ten minutes there he was 1/10th of a point shorter :)
Didn't last long |
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There doesn't look all that much in their form to me. Vautour got a soft lead under a master tactician last time out. If I got first choice to ride one of the pair, I'd be flipping a coin.
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Seems to be some serious straw clutching at the Fav on here.
Done absolutely nothing wrong. Oh, and stick ya trends up ya ****!!! ![]() |
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Irving will run out of gas up the hill as the stayers keep going...
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Maybe.....but then again.....maybe not.
Hes done nowt but impress me though. Cant really be much bigger odds, can he?? |
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Same comments used to be made about Hurricane Fly before he got injured before the Supreme. ''He's all speed''
Fact is, until you've seen the horse run at Cheltenham people are just guessing about the hill, and trying to find a reason not to bet him because his price is short. Typical punter mindset really. There are a long list of horses in recent years who got labelled flat track specialists, Sprinter Sacre & Our Conor the two most recent. |
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who labelled our conor a flat track specialist?........just yourself I'd hav thought......
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Strictly on form he's not entitled to be shorter than vautour, his popularity is down to visual impression more than the quality of what he's beat
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Lol Paulie NoNutts. Is there anyone you haven't been rude to yet?
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And quiet a visual impression hes given us.
Not sure who should be fav,hard to say with no form to go on with both horses involved. |
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To say its the silly season on here is an understatement, panic stationssssssss.
Its been the same for as many years as I can remember on the run up to the meeting. people posting everytime a horse drifts..its out to 5.5, must be out then !!!!!!!!!!. Im sure this ,if you dig a little deeper is purely down to Wicklow brave getting a solid word from people connected to the mullins hard on one of the preview nights this week. RELAX else you wont even make the tapes going up. |
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ps its laughable how because irving has won at taunton, ascot and Kempton he is a flat track bully, all speed and no stamina. If you look his flat form alone he s stayed on to beat kasbash bliss , winning over 1m 5f plus and nicholls commenting pre xmas he would stay the Neptune trip.
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To be fair Istabraq...Vautour was matched at 25s on Monday
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Istabraq,Bang on mate.
Its fairly normal for a fav to be knocked if he aint been backed. The horse has impressed every run for me,and looks like he will be fine at Cheltenham. Why would he not be?? |
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25?? Bl00dy hell, wish I had seen that!!
I must go sick from work more often this time of year!!!! |
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According to someone on twitter who seems to know Patrick Mullins (you never know but he seemed legit) they're all baffled by the massive drift the other day. Said the horse was in its box with not a bother on it and all is fine. Did also say however that champagne fever hasn't been showing them what he can do
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Irving is a machine.
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Tory
Date Joined: 13 Dec 11 Add contact | Send message 27 Feb 14 10:03 According to someone on twitter who seems to know Patrick Mullins (you never know but he seemed legit) they're all baffled by the massive drift the other day. Said the horse was in its box with not a bother on it and all is fine. Did also say however that champagne fever hasn't been showing them what he can do Joe Tizzard hasn't hacked into his account has he? |