Cheltenham Festival
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23 Feb 14
11:33
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Date Joined:
24 Mar 08
Unless I have it wrong Ruby has not had a chase winner since Kauto Star in 2009!!.....Caution for Champagne Fever and Ballycasey punters.
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Replies: 41
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you could many jockeys to that list.
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He won the Bobbyjo Chase yesterday with On His Own
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There are a lot of stats that when you delve into the rationale behind them, definitely have a lot of validity and should be taken notice of.
This is not one of them. Hope this helps. |
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Yeh pretty pointless one.I wonder how many of these have been favs.
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2013
Arkle - Arvika Ligeonniere 15/2 PU RSA - Unioniste 5/2F 4th Champion Chase - Sanctuaire 20/1 4th Jewson - Marito 12/1 Fell Ryanair - Ghizao 25/1 6th Byrne Group - Sweet My Lord 16/1 PU Gold Cup - Silvianaco Conti 4/1 Fell Grand Annual - Ulck Du Lin 7/1 PU 2012 Arkle - Al Ferof 3/1 4th JLT Handicap - Noland 25/1 PU Pultney Novices Handicap - That'll Do 10/1 Fell RSA - Join Together 7/1 PU Champion Chase - Kauto Stone 14/1 Fell Jewson Novices - Cristal Bonus 13/2 PU Ryanair - Blazing Tempo 16/1 PU Byrne Group - Crack Away Jack 13/2 PU Gold Cup - Kauto Star 3/1 PU Grand Annual - Toubab 12/1 Brought Down 2011 Centenary Novices Handicap - Definity 3/1F 5th RSA - Mikael D'haguenet 15/2 Fell Champion Chase - Master Minded 2/1F 8th Jewson Novices - Robinson Collonges 6/1 PU Ryanair - Poquelin 2/1F 4th Gold Cup - Kauto Star 5/1 3rd Grand Annual - Pepe Simo 11/1 8th 2010 Arkle - Sports Line 17/2 11th Will Hill Handicap - The Tother One 14/1 5th RSA - Citizen Vic 12/1 Fell Champion Chase - Master Minded 4/5f 4th Jewson Novices Handicap - Rivaliste 6/1F 7th Ryanair - Poquelin 11/4f 2nd Byrne Group - Gwanako 20/1 5th Gold Cup - Kauto Star 8/11F Fell Grand Annual - Free World 7/1 10th No chase winners but has won 14 other races at the last 4 festivals. I suppose you'd be disappointed Master Minded got beat twice as favourite but he never quite matched his early brilliance and Walsh did nothing wrong. Poquelin was beaten favourite in two Ryanairs but we can say now he was never quite top class. He had three attempts on Kauto Star. In 2010 as odds on favourite he fell but it's interesting that he was already 'too old' (statistically) to win another Gold Cup at that point though. Between 2003 and 2009 over fences he won 1 Arkle, 2 RSAs, 2 Gold Cups, 3 Champion Chases and 4 other chases. Nothing since then. Gone at the game imo...  |
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Not many A list horses.
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you can find a stat to add gloss to any argument, if he's on the best horse he wins simples
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An absolute useless stat
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it's not that good
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I'm on C Fever and Ballycasey and more than happy to have Ruby Walsh riding.
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Pretty shocking stat by my reckoning that's 34 rides with 18 no completions and only twice finishing in the three.
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Not saying there is anything in it, just thought I would put it out there. Someone who has his ammunition and being a top jockey thought it would read better thats all. Take it or leave it.
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"Not many A list horses"
"An absolute useless stat" 21/34 of these horses went off at single figure odds. Excellent post Tucho and S Sheriff,will be overlooked by 95% on here. |
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No chase winners but has won 14 other races at the last 4 festivals.
4 of those were aboard quevega 3 on big bucks 2 on the hurricane 2 supremes 8 of those were festival certs |
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The stat like many others means very little. I give you another different stat. Paul Nicholls' last chase winner at the festival was also Kauto Star and guess what he has had 63 yes 63 losers since.
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Alleged you say 8 of Rubys were festival certs. They are now but not before the races they werent and at the 2nd last hurdle last year Quevega didnt look like one either. And I dont believe there are many/any certs in the Supreme and CF wasnt even favourite and AF was 10/1.
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Good post Arkle....not so sure they mean very little, when your looking at the four most competetive days of the jumps calendar.
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If one believes they are significant stats then one is saying that PN cant train chasers and RW cant ride them - I rest my case.
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Case reopened....the defence would argue that this may be the reason why they parted company ,along with quite a few chasers by the look of it.
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Take notice of this stat with regards to Ballycasey and CF and you must be an idiot.
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Agree Jasey.
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Plenty of confirmation bias on this thread imo.
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Ruby Walsh is a shyte jockey
Paul Nicholls is a shyte trainer Case closed.  |
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It's now time for me to lay Champagne Fever and Ballycasey. back in a minute....
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I could say more but please note...I have stated I was just putting it out there for debate....I have not said either are useless, so no need for offense....I mentioned the word caution.....and the stat is fact, end of.....Of course Ruby will have another winner in a chase at some point, and of course Nicholls is not a crap trainer (unlike the very comments that state that...doh!!). Will it be this year, only time will tell. But nice to see passion in the debate...keep it alive ;-)
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I'm only kiddin man...stats don't lie but doesn't put me off Bally or Champagne
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Need to keep an open mind on these things in my opinion.
It is a natural bias to seek out facts/data which support our "beliefs" and filter out those facts/data which undermine those beliefs. If that set of results related to say Choc Thornton I wonder would they be so quickly dismissed. Like the OP I think it is an "interesting" stat. |
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The stat looks quite alarming when you see the prices of those beaten horses, but its just an anomaly. I'm sure it won't continue for long. If it goes on for another couple of Festivals, I might start to take heed.
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I've been amazed for the last couple of years that this stat has not been talked about a lot more.
The thing that makes me laugh is wasn't it in 2009 that some tipster came out with that whole top 5 chase jockeys (without McCoy in it) and Ruby firmly at the top and since the '09 festival Ruby hasn't head a chase winner at the festival (that's FOUR straight riding for the Champion trainers in England and Ireland) and in that time McCoy has ridden at least one chase winner in every festival including a Gold Cup (and of course outside Cheltenham the Grand National too) anyone know if the list has been updated.... definitely an interesting stat but you'd have to imagine he'll get at least one this year imo. |
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there is only one inference that can be made from this "stat" - Ruby can't ride Cheltenham fences.
Is that what the OP is suggesting? |
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..... since 2008, Walsh at Cheltenham away from the festival over fences, record reads 15-67 (22.4%) for 5.36 loss
The "stat" is boll*cks |
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ttt
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Incredible to think this stat but glad you raised it.
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and still counting!!.....Ballycasey???
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with the big fields and tight handicaps, walsh,s normal tactics of holding up horses out the back with lbs in hand, doesnt help him
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another one goes by....anybody else listening now!.....Felix Yonger perhaps....its got to happen one day but I won't back him in a chase until I see him get that next one!
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1st time poster, have you actually been watching the racing? Ruby has made the running or been up with the pace on every ride apart from Indevan so far.
CF ran a blinder for being in the wrong race (should have been running over further) and Ballycasey didn't appear to stay, which given he didn't manage to win a PTP in 3 or 4 attempts perhaps doesn't come as a major surprise. |
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oh ruby will you ever win another chase?
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i said in general, suprised he made the running on ballycasey becuse he said on ruk earlier he was very worried about the trip
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