Cheltenham Festival Lays

I agree regarding sire de grugy,the new one possible,kings palace up against the monster Briar hill

Kings Palace might not have beaten much, but he didn't half do it well. I wouldn't want to be laying him, most likely winner imv.

Apart from the fact I fancy Kings Palace strongly, if I had the opposite viewpoint I wouldn't lay now anyway. This race has a habit of cutting up badly, and producing a short priced fav, most likely to be KP. In recent years, Wichita, Black Jack, AFC and Bobs Worth were hopped off on the day. If you want to lay him, I would certainly wait til the day.

I would agree completely with Kings Palace. It seems crazy that he keeps shortening despite remaining in his box for a couple of months. Big margin wins against pretty average opposition who have done very little if anything to boost the form. Looks a very economical jumper but even that asset is going to be put under pressure in a much more competitive race. Think he has surprised the stable and in reality Red Sherlock is easily their best novice. Will be surprised if Kings Palace isn't thoroughly exposed. Pipe also has a better record throwing darts at the handicaps.

I have backed The New One but the more I think about the more I can see him being tapped for speed and his jumping falling apart.

I would add in Le Rocher unless the ground is very testing. Doesn't jump well and pulls too hard and probably the only horse who really appreciated the ground last time.

The New One a lay for me. Beats Thousand Stars about a length and goes favourite for CH.

hurricanr fly,place lay for me,if its good to sft because it wont be fast enough,i think its lost a bit of speed.

Actually think Red Sherlock will be well beat in Neptune. Mullins obv sent over a sighter LTO and struggled to beat him so that brings in Faugheen n the Tank to name but 2

Arklearkle

The New One a lay for me. Beats Thousand Stars about a length and goes favourite for CH.

after he beat thousands stars by a length..he wasnt fave for champ hurdle. 7/1 chance in fact.....

He was indeed cos I have him at 7-1.

Laughed at ROR.

Murdered Zarkandar.

Would've beaten Tent if jumped the last LTO but even then no bad thing gettin beaten by him as Tent ahead of Jezki in Supreme and Tent himself a decent animal.

Zarkandar barely stays two and a half miles, yet is due to run in the World Hurdle.

Sprinter Sacre, some say hes the 2nd coming but a dont no. I was expecting him to be trading odds on by now, still plenty money wanting to back him, still plenty wanting to lay him (traders) but i have taken the view that he is currently a lay and have started to accordingly. I know that if he turns up fit and well he probably wins easy, but someone who has a 16/1 voucher on SDG whom i fully confident will place, i am willing to take that 50/50. Market does have him spot on currently. And IF making the festival, them bookie chaps are sure to want to get him in the book, especially your hills/lads/baldys with their 9am specials and enhancements and so if i feel the need to, i can back him then

Spot on

Spot on about Zarkandar as well....10/1 for World Hurdle ain't the best

bally you totally dismissed jezki but for a mistake at the last when power should have came on the outside in the supreme he would have been right beside mtoy

True...beginning to think I've dismissed Jezki completely actually. Got 3 in the Champ Hurdle and now wish I wasn't involved at all to be honest. Hated Our Conor at the start of the season but jesus, loved the way he travelled in his last race. For this race you have :

MTOY and TNO who are neck n neck on Xmas Hurdle Form and miles clear of the rest
and
OC, Fly and Jez who are a few lengths between them.

One hell of a race in store.

Last Instalment place lay is well on my radar. 3rd race in 3 months next month after the long lay off. Can easily see him unplaced

As far as Last Installment is concerned I dont think id be in a hurry to place lay .Philip Fenton is quickly building a reputation as a bit of a wizard at bringing them back. First this fellow and now Dunguib. If any cut in the ground he deserves to be third fav ,sure to stay,jumps like a buck ,with Cue Card looking a non stayer and the rest lacking any real class ill be keeping him on side.

Class horse, no doubt and excellent training performance thus far but 3rd run in 3 months against the best he will have faced? Hard task for me.

How can seathestars knock Sprinter Sacre,yet backs the plodder sire de grugy.

Well it would be a pretty bold call to say both Bobsworth & Silviniaco will be out of the money in the GC unless it is atrocious ground, so for me LI is going for 1 place only. On Gs, or even GS,S i'd place lay him. First Lieutenant never went a yard on the Heavy last time out then you have various others like Rocky Creek etc who could continue to progress into the 3rd place. That's how i'm looking at it anyway.

Rocky Creek?

Only needs one of SC or BW to be unplaced to have two places to aim at, not both of them?

Just putting in ''potential improvers'', Mary.

If they both have a clear round I dont see either BW or SC being out of the money. Do you?

No. The way I see it is that BW is proven and is the one with absolutely no question maks. SC "should" be there or thereabouts, and I think they're both likely to place.

But my point was that IF one (and only one) of BW and SC place that's still two places left up for grabs, so you only need one of them to have a bad day not two as you suggested above.

For me LI and CC have questions to answer about the going and whether they'll stay the trip (respectively) but if they get favourable conditions/can answer the questions they're also entitled to be considered potential winners.

I can't see any winner outside those 4. I've backed Cue Card at 25/1 and Last Instalment at 10/1 and one or the other should get decent conditions to suit so I probably won't have another bet in the race now, having missed out on the fancy prices on the other two.

i think it is going to be very tough on champagne fever in the arkle especially on the back of no prep race and i think he may still go off short, so i'd be keen to get him at the the right price...he could go off around 9/4-5/2 and i'd be happy to accommodate that price

tbh ballydoyle i keep making excuses for jezki but i think there valid,geraghty is 3 from 3 on him i think,just dont think things have went his way,but to me he has as much chance as beating the fly as any of the others,whether any of them do or not is remains to be seen. !

IT seems I may have been a little hasty in crediting the trainer mentioned in my earlier post as being a wizard at bringing em back from injury.Looks as though he may have had a little help in the matter.

Think At Fishers Cross is plenty short enough for the World Hurdle. More encouraging last run but still made mistakes and got beaten by Knockara Beau ffs. How he will jump in a fast run championship race on possibly better ground is anyones guess.

I think Irving & Valdez are far too short.

Smad Place RSA

SDG a plodder

Vautour too short also.seen many a better favourite than him beat in the Supreme Hurdle and one look at his run before last over an actual 2m says 3/1 is nonsense

Sir De Gruzy 4 me ...Still cant get the beating Kid Cassidy gave him last november @ cheltenham i was stood just after the last and KC zoomed past SDG as if he had stood still was also there when Captain Conan gave him a beating as well also at cheltenham cant have him on my mind at cheltenham im afraid

I'll place lay Captain Chris for a vast sum. If ground is decent I'd be keen to place lay Melodic R too

Problem is Ballly is that the supreme is looking really weak at the moment. What's really going to serve it up to Vautour? The stable second string is third fav!!

Irving has to be the lay.Nicknamed Concorde,but he wont be flying up that hill

I didn't realise until I started reading the Paul Jones book two years ago the atrocious recent record of ex flat horses in the supreme. I think its one place in the last 4 or 5yrs!!

Doesn't bother me who is third fav etc..seen plenty come from nowhere in a Supreme. Vautour is not a 3/1 shot.

Flat horses win the Champion Hurdle. NH bred chasers win the Supreme.

Champagne Fever

I'm not sure the breeding stat is useful. In any case, in 2012 the first two were Flat-bred, as was runner-up MTOY last year.

I'm sure ex-Flat horses had a good time in this 1987 to 2007 or thereabouts? Might be completely wrong though lol

You are right. This is the stat though:

Ex bumper horses have won the last 6 and filled 17 of the 18 combined win and place positions

I mean ex flat horses, not flat bred actually. Ex flat horses do better in Champion.

Was responding to Bally pal about ex flat horses doing well upto 2007