champ hurdle-is it time for new king to be crowned?

the new one is the one i think,barring mullins thing that has been winning all kinds of distances being a world beater,it should be between the new one and the fly

I actually think that tno will be a good lay bet given how short his odds are, that he lost to mtoy and has std on board..

Why would STD be a negative to the chances of TNO winning? Sam has ridden him 9 times over hurdles, winning 7 times including at the festival.

Don't think std is such a negative, hes a decent jockey, just not in ruby league bur then again who is, streets ahead of the likes of mccoy on grade 1 winners

Std clearly gets v nervous leading to tactical blunders like vs mtoy at kempton and on BB. He will be easy target for McCoy and Walsh. In fact I would argue that last year's Neptune came vs horses that were over hyped and overrated and every time he comes up against strong opposition who ask the question (AFC and BB) he loses. And in CHurdle there'll be possibly 6 horses ready to take advantage of his Seemingly regular last hurdle blunder..

More of a concern is std's repeated decision to go early on TNO despite having spoken about the need to leave it until late in several interviews.

Reckon he'll have had it drummed in to him since the Xmas Hurdle though and slightly bigger field and faster pace should help though.

Realistically though how many runners are there going to be? Only 11 left in at this stage and I reckon at least 4 or 5 aren't guaranteed to show up.

Smallest champion field in living memory perhaps?

If they go slow tnw can't win

Why do you think that Denman

They went a crawl in the Neptune last year and be sprinted away. If you actually look at his top speed rating it's quite poor so I don't buy into the fact TNO needs an end to end gallop. IMO, he's best suited by a sedate pace and then using the one burst of speed he has.

For me HF has had by far and away the best prep out of all this year. Jezki keeps on getting beaten at the top table, OC had an interrupted start (I think he'll win next year for what it's worth), TNO had 3 races pre Xmas and hasn't been since, and we know that ROR is the only horse since 1993 to win the CH without running in the same calendar year, and MTOY was being given a text book prep but now also doesn't run before hand.

HF hasn't been at his best at chelt but there are valid explanations behind each run, gets better the more be races each season, and is reportedly stronger this year than ever. The way be messed up the last a few weeks ago but then dug in and easily beat OC was very impressive.

He has by far and away the best jockey on board and for me is a very very worthy fav. Had he not been an ill horse in 2012 he'd most likely be coming here a triple champion. It will take something exceptional to beat him

^^most sensible post I've read on this race. Agree with all of it. I did fancy MTOY to give the Fly a run for his money, but given he's now going there with no prep I've lost confidence.

do you not think this year is diferent to most years because of the heavy going everywhere? schedules have had to be changed, that's obvious

Nice post Tory.
I could not have this slow pace will beat TNO either. Like you say he won last seasons Neptune off a very slow pace.
His hurdling improves when he is in full flight too.

The heavy ground has been a nuisance. I'm not saying connections are to blame for the lack of a run, but I still see it as a negative against a fully race fit double champion.

It's the Champion Hurdle its not going to be a crawl ffs

if Un De Sceaux doesn't run, mary, who will make the pace iyo?

I think Jezki might ensure a decent pace - AP already hinted that he will be seen to better effect in an end to end gallop, not saying it will be team tactics from the McManus duo but surely if you look at the last three renewals you'd take a view that a fast pace is best chance of beating Hurricane Fly.

I'm not saying that's what will happen but if you look at the times of the two most recent renewals he won vs the one he did n't, it's reasonable to think that way.

Tony McCoy expects Jezki to be ridden more prominently than has been the case so far this season when he contests the Stan James Champion Hurdle.
Jessica Harrington's charge was last of four behind Hurricane Fly in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown last month, but McCoy feels they have been getting their tactics wrong.
Whether McCoy will be on board at Cheltenham is another matter though, as he could also ride Nicky Henderson's My Tent Or Yours, who will now head straight to the Festival after skipping a possible prep run at Kelso this week.
"Hurricane Fly was very impressive when winning the Irish Champion Hurdle and he is still the one they have to beat at Cheltenham," McCoy wrote on his blog for Cheltenham racecourse.
"People will question the form and say Captain Cee Bee was not beaten far, but you have to remember that Hurricane Fly was in trouble coming to the last and still won by a length and a half.
"He keeps on winning and until that changes, he is the one to beat. I rode Jezki in the race and we finished fourth, but looking back we have been riding him wrong as he wants two and a half miles and I think positive tactics will see him to much better effect.
"If he is more positively ridden in a strong-run Champion Hurdle, then he has definitely got an each-way chance.
"JP (McManus) also has My Tent Or Yours in the Champion Hurdle, but I will be leaving a decision on who I ride until the last moment. Things are very much up in the air at the moment and I probably won't make the choice until the day before."


I think that might be code for Jezki will front run if UDS isn't running.

"If he is more positively ridden in a strong-run Champion Hurdle, then he has definitely got an each-way chance.

ie absolutely no chance Jezki will make the running at a strong pace

If the McManus team wouldn't sacrifice Captain CB as a pacemaker for Jezki in a pedestrian Ryannair or Irish Champion Hurdle, does anyone think Jessie Harrington will be happy about being told to send Jezki off like a scalded cat as a dummy for MTOY?

Been held up in midfield nearly all his life, led at a walk in a nonsense of a 5 runner race at Down Royal on his reappearance, and barely even be ridden prominently in 14 career starts either. Are they really going to turn him into a pacemaker now?

not turn him into a pacemaker no, but what would be the point in riding him the same way as he has been ridden in Ireland against Hurricane Fly this season?

Don't they say that the definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing and expecting different results?

definite each-way chance sounds to me like AP code for 'I'll be riding MTOY'

What would be the Harrington argument in favour of continuing to ride him the same way, exactly?

I don't know what they've been playing at in Ireland, but I believe his best chance is to ensure a decent gallop, so, if there's no one willing to make the running, they definitely should on him. He'd have far more chance trying to do it from the front than from behind.

On the new one, im certain we havent seen the best of him yet by any means. A few of you have pointed out they went slow in the neptune last year in which he sprinted away from them. He showed his speed that day but i still dont think the race was run to suit. You can see from a young age he finds a lot for pressure. i definately think a strongly run race will be beneficial for him, while a slowly run race doesnt mean he cant win it but does look to play to his rivals strengths. Its not going to be slowly run anyway, its the champion hurdle!!!

This race really needs Un De Sceaux,and not just for my pocket

Be so much better for his presence imo.
The unknown factor of how good a front runner in the CH is???
Now that excites me.

"If he is more positively ridden in a strong-run Champion Hurdle, then he has definitely got an each-way chance."

doesnt mean theyre going to bounce him out in front, just a bit more prominent than he was on the last run!!!

I think hes going to run well.

Jockeys in behind will be earning their corn,thats for sure!!

"You going after him?,dont know what about you? erm maybe in a moment,oh I just don't know!!!
Erm.i think we may need to get going,he don't seem to be slowing!!!"

The most interesting CH in some time , with the quality in the field im thinking making the running or at least bein in the van is the way to go , as long as its not a mad pace, in my opinion you have to steal it from the front to beat the fly ( massive fan)im still hopeful that how Our Connor will do it, pile it on gradually coming down the hill

Don't they say that the definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing and expecting different results?

don't disagree with you Reese. But that's exactly what McManus did with Captain CB / Jezki from the Ryannair to the Irish Champion. It was obvious that Jezki doesn't have as much speed as Hurriance (or Our Conor), yet they held him up even more in the Irish Champion than they did in the Ryannair where McCoy got unusually outmanouevred by those coming from behind.

Riding a horse prominently or positively is a completely different proposition to actually setting a decent gallop. If UDS doesn't run, whilst it may not be a crawl, the Champion will probably be won by the best sprinter who has managed to settle off a modest gallop ie Hurricane Fly

Speaking from my pocket, and not knocking Danny Mullins but im hoping Dessie gives him a good aul reminder before the off to stick to whatever plan they have, AND DONT OVERREACT. iTS TERRIBLE WHEN YOU RUN RACES OVER IN YOUR HEAD AGAIN AND AGAIN AND AGAIN.IF UN DES SCEAUX RUNS HOW MANY WILL HAVE A SAVER NO MATTER WHO THEY PUT UP AS THERE WINNER

Un De Sceaux would be guaranteed one of the softest leads that can remember in recent Champion Hurdles. Don't think there is even another entry in the race that would want to be in front more than 3 or 4f out, absolutely no pressure on the pace

If was trained by anyone else, would be a definite runner

Very good point pedro to me it has to go , not to wish any bad luck on fella, you may never get another chance

Riding a horse prominently or positively is a completely different proposition to actually setting a decent gallop. If UDS doesn't run, whilst it may not be a crawl, the Champion will probably be won by the best sprinter who has managed to settle off a modest gallop ie Hurricane Fly

Yep, I take the point about riding a horse prominenently being different to setting a decent gallop - but if connections of the other horses let Un De Sceaux have a soft lead or let Hurricane Fly outkick them off a slow pace, they only have themselves to blame.

There is a school of thought which suggests Ruby was caught napping watching AP on Binocular in 2012 (and vice versa) - surely they won't allow that to happen again with Un De Sceaux? - especially as Ruby must have an better idea than most about the capabilities of UDS.

Just hope it's a proper race and we're not asking 'what if?' afterwards because some of the contenders' chances were compromised by their connections' tactics. Probably too much to ask.

^^^ if the connections feck up the plan that's there problem. If this UDS runs they will not have to worry about tactics it will be a fierce pace.