Pricewise RSA

I would expect him to go with Morning Assembly

Interesting callitasucit - I thought he might go with Carlingford Lough?!

Quite open this race still. Could be anyone of about 4 or 5. Maybe Le Bec of Emma Lavelle's.

morning assembley will have to overcome the stat not run in the calendar year, 49 attempts 49 failures.... and cannot see him shortening..

he has to pick something that will be much shorter on the day, only 2 really good trials left, the moriarty and reynoldstown.

from the irish the shorteners could be don Cossack and ballycasey, does anyone have any ideas who will be running at ascot??

Many Clouds, Le Bec, PFN has two or three potential runners, NJH must have a couple aswell. Jonjo, Venetia, King etc ..

Le Bec would be my guess.

Don Cossack would be my guess too....I liked his last run, he had every chance to chuck it in but he knuckled right down, those runs last year that appeared to be a touch disappointing at the time don't look so bad now, perhaps he's just been crying out for 3 miles...after that last run with even more potential at the full 3 miles...I'm converted...,where's that DC fan club thread too, might need a dusting off.

cant see more than 5 or 6 runners in the ascot race meself..... once it cuts up..

There's a couple of 33/1 shots out there like STFD and Djakadam.

Think he might pick Black Thunder myself, there isn't many that will go into the race higher rated, and he got a crap ride lto on awful ground which suited the winner. 25/1 looks too big for me, in fact I've talked myself into a wee bet.

I'd go Anacotty at 25/1 ew

Grade 1 Feltham winner (yeah, I know about the stat) and thought he ran well last time out over a trip too short at Cheltenham.

Shows how wide open this race is when collectively we've picked half the field

many clouds and smad place could be running at newbury this weekend, interestingly gevrey chambertin is due to run aswell

what reason was given for o'faolain boy's poor run last time?

Pricwise is Morning Assembly and Smad Place

he's put up 2 selections?

yes

They're not content on ****g up the value on just the one horse

Can understand Morning Assesmbly but scratching my head over Smad Place

Morning Assembly will shorten alright. If Ballycasey doesn't turn up somewhere soon, MA will go off fav. Can see him being a massive plunge on the day. Has Sun Alliance written all over him.

Happy with those two being tipped up as both have massive trends to overcome. Let them shorten and the others stay better prices

Smad Place has been placed in two World Hurdles and this doesn't look a vintage RSA. Wouldn't be my pick, well chief, but I can see his logic.

Yeah mate, I understand that; but with the doubts over the health of the yard, unseating first time out, and then only winning an egg and spoon race at Exeter, for him to be 2nd fav with most bookies just puzzles me.

As you say, he wouldn't be your pick, and as you can tell, not mine - give me 25's and I might have a little bit ew but not 10's!

What's the score with Papparazzi Kid? Liked the way he kept on under pressure when Felix Yonger tried to come back at him but 110+ on here for the RSA. Mullins impossible to second guess.

He certainly does ruin it somewhat with tipping these horses so far away from the festival, but in this case I'm pretty happy, makes my 33's on MA look even better. Surely this horse has to go close. Also like the look of Le Bec and Corrin Wood.

Ballycasey is weak as hell on here. Can't figure out if it's an issue or simply the market readjusting to the reality that he's only raced once and had a small set back

Allegedly schooled after racing Sunday at Punchestown,but your last 2 points are exactly the reasons id imagine.

Yeah, I read that he'd worked on Sunday. Very interested to see what happens this weekend - if he worked on Sunday then everything must be fine, but I can't see both him and CF running in the Moriarty. Conversely, time is running out and both need a run.

he looked ok tory, interestingly townsend was on ballycasey and walsh on fever. I expect both to go for the moriarty

No chance of them running in same race (the Moriarty). No significance that Ruby was on one and PT on other. Ruby's good but can only manage one at a time!

normally id agree with you arkle but with so few viable options left, I feel they have no choice...

Glad that Tom Seagull has went for Morning Assembly as sitting on a 16-1 voucher that would be as well in the bin as can't win without a prep. Hopefully gets backed down to silly odds to lay off.

Cheers alleged.

I'd be giving up all hope on Ballycasey if i'd backed him tbh. He needs two more runs, one is not enough.

"Champagne Fever and Ballycasey are in the Dr PJ Moriarty Chase and I'm not sure which will run at this stage, but both are fit and ready and whichever one does line up will go very close. It does look a competitive race though as Don Cossack and Carlingford Lough are two very decent novices," he added.

I can't of have given up Sint but I have some very nice prices so if would be nice to at least get a run

the RSA is really strong trends race, many of the key trends highlighted in todays RP are 10/10 over the last 10 years.

basically, a 7 year old with graded chase experience (win or placed), 3 runs over fences, chase RPR of 150+.

should narrow the field down !!!!!!!!!!

didn't mullie win an rsa with a horse with only 2 runs....?

From a pre-festival prep point, i think they would be better sneding Ballycasey to the Moriarty, which would pave the way for CF to go straight to the arkle.

I don't believe he's 100% either.(Ballycasey)

didn't mullie win an rsa with a horse with only 2 runs....?

Florida Pearl only had 2 runs over fences before he won the RSA though the 2nd of them was the Moriarty. Cooldine also won the Moriarty before winning the RSA.

thanks for the memory jog festivalfanatic

alleged22
04 Feb 14 10:31
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| Topic/replies: 1,439 | Blogger: alleged22's blog
normally id agree with you arkle but with so few viable options left, I feel they have no choice...theres the FLYING BOLT 2M AND THE TEN UP 3M AT NAVAN A WEEK LATER BOTH G2'S FOR NOVICE'S SO MAYBE 1 COULD RUN THERE PROB CF OVER 2M.BUT THEN AGAIN THE VIBE'S DONT SOUND GOOD FOR BC

vibes dec? do you have some news ?

bobs worth won the rsa with only 2 chase wins also denman did the same , it can be done ,but have to be top class as in those 3 .

BW had 3. Beat cue card, lost to grands crus, lost to Invictus

Denman also had 3. No horse in the last ten runnings has won it off the back of less than 3 chases before

sorry my mistake, ballycasey has more than a mountain to climb !

florida pearl and minnehoma, it can be done I am keeping the faith

What are people's thoughts on Corrin wood? I haven't watched a single chase run of his which I need to do, but he score very well from a trends perspective

He was impressive against Black Thunder at Warwick; looked like he'd stay all day, and that one had some good looking form before then. I've come round to thinking that the value is with Annacotty. Showed that he handles the course the other week and won the (admittedly weak) Feltham. I know the winners of that race have a shocking record in the RSA, but 25/1 seems a bit big.

looked good in the Feltham, but that was a shocking race. It would be strange if the horse that broke the Feltham/RSA hoodoo was the winner of the weakest Feltham I can remember. Maybe that's why his price is so big.

I'm a big fan of Morning Assembly but RSA horses need a prep run

Taking away the Feltham hoodoo, Anacotty scores very well on stats. Age is the only trend he falls down on

@Tory re Corrin Wood -- jumped right at Warwick last time; impressive but was he beating trees?

@ACStafford re Annacotty -- and it is funny how we draw different conclusions from the same evidence -- to me, he showed last week he does not handle Cheltenham. But if we all thought the same, there'd be no betting and precious little racing.

And aren't both horses front-runners?

The best way I could find to describe Annacotty IMO would be to take champion court as an example of a horse from the same stable who was admirable but always comes up short in the best races and then say that I think that annacotty will prove to be a poor mans champion court.

that's what puts me off him tbh, price is big but can the trainer get him ready for the big day?

You've got to think that 7 chase runs since October could take its toll as well

He has been on the run for a long time I guess, and there's probably not a great deal of improvement left to come. I thought he ran well on trials day over a trip too short and giving weight away all round, but I admit he's likely to find one or two too good. However, he's more battle hardened than most, and at 25/1 I see him as a good value each way bet.