Cheltenham Festival
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Got a funny feeling McCoy going to pick jezki,don't think mtoy can win,when everything falls right for jezki I hope he is the 1 that can beat the fly !
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Could you explain why MTOY cant win? I could do with some help as I need to eliminate either him or TNO.
I have Fly at 10's and can afford one of them as a back up I reckon. But I cannot dismiss either at this moment. |
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If you cannot dismiss either Budde then what someone else says isn't going to make a difference!
Personally, I think TNO will sh1t all over MTOY around Cheltenham. |
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If Jezki wins the Irish Champion, I suppose there's an outside chance that AP could pick him, absolutely no chance otherwise. MTOY is my idea of the Champion Hurdle winner, as long as the pace is good. He wastes energy pulling in all his races, so a strong pace may help him settle instead of wasting that energy. I wouldn't be the last bit put off if McCoy picked Jezki, as BJG is a wonderful reserve.
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yes, and i'd rather BJG on Jezki anyway, he knows the horse better I would say.
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I don't think anybody needs to rush. The picture should be clear following the Irish Champion. If The Fly beats Jezki comfortably it seems inconceivable that he will pick that one over The Tent.
As for which of the two finishes in front of the other and whether that will be in front of the others is anybody's guess. |
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Final sentence relates to Cheltenham.
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Sint, I was being a tad facetious my friend.
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Jezki could beat the Fly and AP might still choose My Tent Or Yours. I'd be surprised if Jezki did beat Fly too.
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I don't want Jezki to beat the Fly in Ireland as I don't want McCoy on board at Cheltenham. Jezki isn't the sort that needs muscling so I'd rather have a horseman like Geraghty on board.
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but what if you then get Robbie Power
 Ap will ride MTOY at Chelt. no matter what happens in Irish champion |
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^^^ yeah, you're probably right, unless Jezki wins by a distance, which isn't going to happen.
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Only way jezki wins this yrs CH is if they add an extra 3-4 furlongs onto the distance!
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Or there's pace from the outset set by a contender rather than a no-hoper
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Yes. For jezki to win it has to become a proper stamina test, otherwise he just lacks the tactical speed and ability to hurdle fluently when flat out
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But if it becomes a proper stamina test I think I'd still favour The New One and Hurricane Fly over Jezki.
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Un de Sceaux will make it a test!!!
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Jezki 22 for the double of Irish and English CH Hurdles if anyones interested.
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what price our connor for same bud tia
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16 mate
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too short 4 me ! thanks budd !
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Who's that with Budd and what for the fly? Can't find on hills app
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I was there the day the Fly couldn't go with Overturn and Rock on Ruby. I can't have him winning two years older given similar tactics.
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me too, although the 22 for jezki has me a tad interested.
I don't really see him reversing form with Hfly next week,but I do see the argument that he was a tad unlucky lto and I guess its possible he could improve enough. If he were to do that,22 would like quiet nice come March. |
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Tory,its on oddschecker mate with 365. Look up prices for Irish race and gives you prices for double.
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There where massive excuses that year and I can't be having it as reliable form. Not because ROR beat him, but because overturn did. Overturn wouldn't get near a 90% right HF so I'd put a line through 2012.
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Thanks Budd. Don't have an account with 365 so may have to wait for hills to do it again
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9/2 the Fly.
Cant you open an account mate?? not banned are you!! |
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Lol Tory, Overturn went around Cheltenham faster than Hurricane Fly ever has. I'm not interested in ten year olds who need massive excuses.
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No not banned pal, just never opened an account with them. May do nearer the time.
I'm not saying he's going to win this yr autocue, I'm saying that 2012 wasn't the real fly. He was a shell of a horse in the parade ring and having got to know the son of one of the owners over the last three yrs at chelt, I know ruby said be asked him three times to pick up and three times he couldn't. Do you honestly see any other way overturn could beat him, other that. HF being all wrong that year ? |
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Tory I'm not stupid enough to think HF is anything other than a great horse. What I'm saying is I don't underestimate Overturn's run on the day and 10 is a bit old for HF to be having to prove he can do the job in a fast time. As you'll know the three novices also went round quicker than him last year. I tend to think the winner will have to post a quick time in order to win this year, all subject to the weather of course. Jezki is my ante-post bet at what I think is a fair price but I'll certainly back HF on the day if the ground is soft as unlike Jezki (so far) he settles and jumps beautifully. I think Jezki needs pace in the race to show his best and for that reason I don't think Mullins will run UDS.
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Really fancy jezki to beat the fly on Sunday,was backed to do so and while I'm not sure he would have won it would have been mighty close,so 1-2 the fly or 10-3 jezki,I know what I'd rather be on
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UDS setting a strong pace will suit the fly though, last year ROR killed himself and others and the fly profited as he stayed on past dead horses, so it would suit him alright, however it would suit MTOY'S more, because whereas the fly won't quite be travelling off of it as he wasn't last year, MTOY'S will cruise off of it, and then at the end will only having a staying on fly to contend with rather than a quickening fly.
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If they go a really strong end to end pace MTOY will not finish up the hill - to me he is exactly like Binocular (same connections as well) who was hot fav when 2nd in the Supreme and 2nd in the following Champion Hurdle - just watched the videos on You Tube and both times he came their cruising on the bend but then got outstayed after the last. Think lightning will strike twice (it struck once in last years Supreme) and that 2015 is MTOY year.
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And the fact that binocular was 4 and 5 in those respective races had nothing to do with it?
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If My Tent Or Yours doesn't win this year UncleP, I'd say it's very likely he'll be jumping fences next season.
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MTOY'S is older now than bino was when he won the race.....it's wide open of course but a really strong pace will give mtoy's his best chance at least.....the truth is that 4 or 5 could conceivably win it and you wouldn't be surprised.
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I realise Binocular was younger, but therefore as MTOY was older for his tilt at the Supreme last year he should have had no excuses if he's as good as some think, and yet it made no difference - he ran exactly like Binocular (watch the videos) and got beat, so I'm fearful of deja vu in this years Champion Hurdle, but that is just my opinion, and if we all agreed it would be very boring.
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Fair comment uncle
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Very poor run from Jezki today. No excuses as his preparation had gone well. The only hope now is that different ground, track and jockey will show the horse in a better light but I'd want 20/1 to find out.
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