Cheltenham Festival
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Pricewise - Gold Cup
Pricewise - Gold Cup
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Replies: 104
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Erm he hasn't been confirmed for the Gold Cup yet though. he is running in the Denman to see whether he runs in the Ryanair or the Gold Cup. stable has the 2nd fav for Gold Cup and nothing for Ryanair which he is holding still at around 7s.
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Pricewise ain't no Patrick Veitch either is he?lets be honest.
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Good old Tom doing his bit for the bookies profits again another tip in a race it wont run in. He's a star!!
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Looks like Ladbr0kes has put two fingers up to Tom by holding the 16's
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Need to be honest and say, it didn't look like a Gold Cup winner in the King George
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Better chance in Ryanair than Gold Cup.
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too early to say bally only 1 attempt at 3 miles in a grade 1 against fully fit rivals, then theres the bounce factor, the denman will tell us where he,s heading, 16,s could look very big or very small after that race..
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And the 6-1 Ryanair NRNB could look massive
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Pricewise is about finding the best value in a race. I haven't seen the Racing Post today, so apologies if I've got this wrong and he has suggested using the NRNB, but surely 14/1 NRNB is far better value than 16/1 with antepost rules. I'd argue that two months before a race, with the potential for injury, they are fairly closely matched valuewise. But when the horse has three entries for the festival, and is yet to win over further than 2m5f, taking the shorter price with the safety net is clearly far better value.
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Absolutely.90% of my pre March is NRFB or NRNB then back in big when all NRNB
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ACS
I agree with you on the NRNB part but surely tipping horses that are at best 'unlikely' to run in a race is no value. Check out his tips for the big races at last years chelt festival CH Cottom Mill did not run Champ Chase Wishful Thinking did not run World Hurdle Sorry cant remember but did not run Gold Cup Captain Chris did not run Add to that Grand National Tidal Bay did not run. Looks like a pattern forming to me!! Surely him putting up a horse that is really likely to run in the race would give his army of followers ( as you will see im not one ) a bit of interest. Im sure if he'd put up say Hurricane fly when 6/1 or Bob Worth at 6/1 a couple of weeks early would represent much better value??? |
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Should have went for First Lieutenant IMO as guaranteed starter barring injury, better chance and similar odds
Annie Power another put up eh? More likely to go in World. |
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Looking at the selections from last year....Cotton Mill, Wishful Thinking, Captain Chris....all poor selections to be honest
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You forgot last years King George jokewise put up Sizing Europe that did not run.
Tidal Bay got injured like his Welsh national tip Le Beau Bai which is bad luck really. |
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They probably sell or hope to sell extra copies. TS obviously a good tipster but all these NRs in the big races tell us whats important. Cant think of any other reason.
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Wishfull thinking finished 3rd in the queen mother last year
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His 10 Ante Post selections in 2013 produced one winner Solwhit advised at 16-1 World Hurdle
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Yeah 25l behind Sprinter Sacre. I mean let's be honest even Forrest Gump wouldn't be stupid enough to bet Wishfull Thinking to beat Sprinter Sacre last year.
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Ballydoyle he went for Williams Wishes in the Queen Mum it was a non runner
Segals National tip in National was Cappa Bleu e/w 25-1 finished 2nd. Any Ante Post losers were well paid for by Ruler Of The World 33-1 for The Derby Its alright having a go at the guy but get the facts right to start with |
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Steady now Tom...i keep no record of what this guy picks cos I'm not that interested. I wouldn't even know but poster above said Wishful Thinking. So he tipped Williams Wishes?jeezo Williams Wishes to beat Sprinter Sacre???
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Sorry steam
You are correct it was Williams wishes. His first AP GN tip was Tidal Bay though he might have tipped Cappa Bleu nearer the race. My point is that alot of his AP tips dont give you a run for your money, I take your point about the derby but im not really a flat player. |
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robbo you dont have o apologise to me if he went for Tidal Bay then he got injured.
I don't keep records of his tips but they are on Tipsterform. His record for the year 2013 is 47pts up at Betfair sp. I see these posters knocking him and that they dont follow him yet they are throwing away profit most years and with no travel, most days you dont need to buy the paper. |
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As for Williiams Wishes to win the Queen Mum then yes it does seem a stupid bet, similar to Newmill winning the same race in 2006 which included Moscow Flyer and Kauto Star. Imperial Commander winning the Gold Cup that had Kauto Star and Denman how ridiculous
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Not a pricewise follower at all, Much prefer to live or die by my judgement, and I think its a big part of the fun trying to pick winners.
Whether we follow him or not, we will still have winners and losers. Those that do follow him,that's up to them. Personally think hes a pain in the backside when a horse I want to back suddenly goes a lot shorter, but at the same time he obviously helps people to get a nice priced winner. Take it or leave it, accept it and get on with it imo. He has a place in this game. |
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Yes, but he now seems to have a cut-off point of at least 10/1 for all ante post recommendations which, in this case, only two months before the race, compromises his selections. I thought today's reasoning was poor and very woolly. (Al Ferof won the Paddy Power off only a slightly lower mark than Long Run was beaten off the year before he won the Gold Cup, therefore he stands a chance is flabby thinking to put it at its mildest). Looked to be a case of "lets find a price then construct an argument" on this occasion and doesn't seem to have his heart in this selection at all. The far better approach would have been "no bet, folks, I can't see any value" but that doesn't sell papers.
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The problem with Pricewise antepost is that three or four horses get shortened the night before as punters (and forumites) try to anticipate the great man.
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Looked to be a case of "lets find a price then construct an argument" on this occasion
isn't that the basis for all Pricewise selections? |
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Ok steamship...I'll put it this way.....
Williams Wishes had fooking no chance in a Champion Chase and those who backed it were simply stoopid Go make your own opinions. Not interested in Sir Tom crap |
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Why do you get so wound up by it then?
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Cos I find it quite sad how people get so excited when he tips something. His record simply isn't that good to be awarded all the coverage.
Nothing against the guy, it's not his fault but why is he at the Racing Post? Whats the point of having him? 47 points to betfair SP I read. So given it's mainly weekends that's 1 point per weekend yeah? An even money shot every Saturday at SP? Imperial Commander you say? Standout bet if you knew anything about racing. Newmill was good though. No doubt but that was what?2006? Can't defend a selection like Williams Wishes to beat Sprinter Sacre. No way and the bookies would've loved that let me tell you |
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I think you need to put into perspective the mans job.
He gets a certain window to give a VALUED tip on a race. He may not have an opinion on the race but still is contracted to give a tip. He showed a 40+ pt profit last year. His followers are generally £10 punters so a £400+ profit to them must be good news. Bally you say you're a pro punter so you understand value. You've had 4/5 pints on races at chelt. Not because they will win but gives you a value edge. Tom gets one tip at a certain date. Not an easy job. |
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Punts not pints.
Maybe come the day it might be 4/5 pints a day tho  |
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Fair enough I shall leave him alone but as for the pints Jesus if Cue Card wins the Gold Cup it won't be pints I'll need.....it'll be gas and air
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I'll give St Johns the heads up
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You won't need to
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Unless they're gonna run it over 2m7f at Kempton of course?
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... and that 2m 7f is really 2m 5 or 6f.
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40 pts profit on betfair cumon whats the real figure.
Brandy,who does pricewise steel his tips from. |
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Paul jones I think
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