RSA - Morning Assembly

Have both Balleycasey nrfb and Morning Assembly nrfb and more than happy to go with those 2 on the day.
Also backed Sam Winner after I saw him at Cheltenham in December,but a tad concerned he may end up in the 4 miler. Was impressed with him that day and really hope he gives me an extra one on my side.
Uxizandre is one I backed ages ago at big prices on here,but a tad concerned for him with the stables problems. Decent horse though and darn good jumper.
Be nice to see him out fairly soon.

This horse definitely has a chance no doubt and I'm very tempted to go in because I've got Ballycasey only at the moment and wondering whether he will show.

Is there a reason Walsh has been on all season? Does Walsh know something we don't regarding Ballycasey?

He may get tapped for toe next month at Leopardstown but saw that with Lord Windermere and he did the business a month later. I like my RSA horse to run in that race personally.

If youre a Morning Assembly man surely you would fear Don Cossack as well given that there is only half a length between them on their meeting?

Not sure he turns up for the RSA Bally

Although having just re-watched that race it looks as if Don Cossack will struggle to get home in an RSA. Jewson horse?

Yeah he's got a entry in that. Entered up in the Irish Arkle this month

Who? Don Cossack?

Yeah mate

They also then seemingly think he isn't an RSA horse. Given that Ballycasey ran over 2m 1f earlier in season and Walsh has been on Morning Assembly all season perhaps he doesn't think Ballycasey is an RSA horse?

Whats funny?

Which race would you see Ballycasey in if not the RSA?

None. He might not turn up. Hope he does cos I'm on at 10-1 NRNB but he's only ran once. Not ideal is it?

No it wouldn't be, hopefully still time for another two in Jan/Feb. The nrnb might come in v handy to keep the option of laying off nearer the time too.

Ruby only got the ride on Morning Assembly due to injury to Condon, then he kept the ride as he was free in the next two races. I'm sure he'll ride Ballycasey in RSA. But there will surely be some good riders free to take the ride. I'd like Davy Russell to ride. But he's not a tricky ride or anything so not too worried.

Morning Assembly for me also. Managed to get on at 33/1 a few months back. Was quite surprised with his defeat lto but I would think he'll improve for better ground come March.

CV...you've talked me into a cheeky punt on Morning Assembly at 16-1

To be honest, Ballycasey being fav is a joke - and I'm on him at 36.0 on here and 33/1 SJ!! On what has been achieved so far, morning assembly should be fav in my book

Anybody got any information/thoughts on another one of Fahy's - Western Boy?  I was taken by its maiden win and it is entered in a grade 2 at the weekend. Could get a decent price against a Mullins hotpot which has been well backed for the supreme.  Im also on MA by the way; thought it was very tenderly handled LTO.

Another I'm looking forward to seeing again is Sizing Gold. Is he a soft ground horse though??

MA strikes me as an ideal type for Sun Alliance alright, though he would be an absolute certainty for the 4 miler. I am not suggesting he too slow for SA, just not many or any of his class will line up in the longer race, and be assured of staying.
I have Ballcasey backed at 25s, so am hoping to see him out by the end of the month. Agreed he doesn't have any chase form of note, but he has always looked made for the game. I don't think he would want a stamina sapping test at 3m, but by Wednesday at Chelt, the ground is invariably good. Like the Arkle, there is very little strength in depth, so like many others on here, I am going to add MA.
On the subject of the Arkle, I still think Champagne will go that route. The Jewson looks a better class of event, the Arkle is very poor,  and once Ruby can see off any potential 'Golden Freezes', I don't think he will be beaten.

De Valira never raced beyond 20f.

As far as I am aware, WPM does not have a great record in the Topaz, so he either did not run Ballycasey there because he does not like to give his novice chasers a hard race over 3 miles before the festival on soft ground, or the horse has met with a set-back.

I have Wonderful Charm backed for the Jewson at double figs so hope he goes there as he'd take all the beating.

Le Bec looked well over priced at 20/1 after his second to Sam Winner conceding 8lb. He is RSA bound and has put together 3 top chase efforts back-to-back. Trainer thinks he has a live chance. 16/1 still very fair imo. I wouldn't rule out Many Clouds at a big price too. You won't see a better novice chaser jumps fences like he does this season.

I think Cooldine ran in the Topaz sint and didn't win but came back to land the RSA. I've backed Ballycasey but am increasingly concerned by his non-appearance. One run in an egg and spoon race over fences thus far is no sort of preparation for this challenge. He missed the Festival last year and might just be a bit fragile.

Look at his price on here - Ballycasey hasn't suffered a at back otherwise he'd have drifted. Prob didn't run in the topaz partly due to what happened to CF when pitched straight into G1 company

I think mullie is just being conservative with ballycasey, why run a horse that needs goodish ground on very soft/heavy winter ground.... makes no sense to me.... im sure we,ll see him out soon.

Sint, 11 years the Topaz has been a Grade 1 novice Chase.
WPM has sent out 7 horses. 4 unplaced, 2 placed and the one winner. Back In Focus.

Ok cheers Brandy. A fair record then with a win and 2 places from 7 runners. Makes you wonder why Ballycasey did not run. Has to have been the ground.

Cooldine ran over 2m at Leopardstown the season he won the RSA, then won the Dr PJ before he won the RSA. Mullins often runs his stayers over shorter trips in Ireland before stepping up in trip at the Festival. Helps them learn to jump at pace.

Cooldine

I thought Cooldine had 3 chase runs before he contested the RSA? Unless he contests uncompetitive races, it's questionable whether Ballycasey has time for another 2 runs beforehand. Cheltenham is a very fair track but can be unforgiving to those lacking ability and/or experience.

He did.had 3.

It's very much against the grain for a horse to win the RSA with less than 3 runs but Boston Bob had 2 when fell at the last when leading.However he still didn't win and that's the bottom line.

Feel sometimes Mullins can fanny about too much and this might be another occasion of this happening. Some on here think he is God but I just go by the form book and certain stats.im on Ballycasey since November and have now looked elsewhere for alternatives.

There is still time (well, two months) for Ballycasey to get experience.

Morning Assembly might need it too. He looked a bit novicey when beaten by Carlingford Lough in the Topaz.

But which races will they contest in March now that the JLT (last year's Jewson with a new sponsor) has been promoted to Grade One so there is a 2m4f option for the top novice chasers (though the RSA still has more prize money)?

Assembly could head straight to RSA

Trainer Pat Fahy will consider sending stable star Morning Assembly straight for the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival without another run.

The Grade One-winning novice hurdler won his first two starts over fences, claiming the notable scalp of Don Cossack in the Florida Pearl Novice Chase at Punchestown.

He was not disgraced when second behind Galway Plate hero Carlingford Lough in the Topaz Novice Chase at Leopardstown's Christmas Festival and Fahy feels his jumping technique can be improved upon between now and the big meeting in March.

Fahy said: "He's fine and has been having a bit of time out. He's just tipping away, having a relaxing time and enjoying himself.

"We couldn't have been happier with his run at Christmas. Carlingford Lough is a good horse and a very experienced horse.

"It was a horrible day and Ruby (Walsh) said to me afterwards it's hard to appreciate how intimidating it is for a young horse running into that wind.

"For our horse to put it up to Carlingford Lough in those conditions, I was very pleased with him.

"I think he'll probably go for the RSA Chase, assuming all goes well between now and then. Whether he has another run before that for more experience, I don't know.

"He's a careful jumper, but there's nothing wrong with that. We can teach him to be a bit faster at his fences at home, we don't need to go racing.

"It's not too difficult to teach them to be a bit quicker. It's more difficult if they are the other way."

Last 50 winners of this all ran in same calendar year...mistake if he doesn't give him one more outing

i was thinking the same bally

First Lieutenant went straight to the RSA and you could see how keen he was. Must have a prep,imo.

well i certainly see why people like this horse at the current odds and how he has been campaigned, although i do believe him to be a soft ground horse, just my own opinion

i am just starting to have my doubts about the sire shantou, whose progeny appear to get to a certain level, then there form appears to level out and they don't seem to go on...

anyone else noticing this about his sire or does this not concern people? or have they not noticed this trait about him or is it just myself??

we will have to see how this bares out with 2 leading players going to the festival, this fellow and briar hill but i have grave concerns myself about the progeny and how much they go forward in terms of improvement, i maybe wrong but will need evidence to prove me wrong so for that reason i won't be backing the said horses even with the obvious claims of both horses

we will see

Harry which other horses have you seen this happen to?

de valira reached some decent marks early career then not much more
our father reached 154 on debut then hasn't gone on
super duty reached 152 before cheltenham then ran to that figure
dylan ross regressive from a novice
ballynagour we will still have to see with him
briar hill reaching a level now 151 still to see whether he will improve much more but could argue he isn't really going on, improvement wise that is, but still time but we will see as the competition gets harder

morning assembly has improved 5lbs from debut over fences and yes he should still improve as only had 3 starts but form says he isn't really improving at a rate you would like to see

both have reached a level that is still good enough to be involved in any race they take in at cheltenham but will they improve enough to win there said targets

the sire says they won't

Very interesting post HC. My take on the trainer's comments is that the Topaz may have bottomed him.....needs all the time available to let him down and build him back up for the RSA. Wasn't aware that Shantou may be dodgy but thanks for the heads up!

Hopefully will run Leopardstown meeting in Feb, otherwise re bally stat calender year we are doomed!

Cheers Harry good post and interesting.

well festival, that isn't to say i am right, just a trait i am noticing with a lot of his stock...

have been in the game long enough to know, that it can bite you in the bum at any time and being as he sired a cheltenham winner last year, he certainly is breeding nice horses...

my point is purely on how much they improve but he (shantou) is bound to have one sooner or later who will improve to a high level, probably morning assembly or briar hill just to put me straight but like i say, neither have to improve that much to get involved, so would be folly to discount there chances, just something to be aware of, and i certainly respect both horses as individuals, just hope they go on, rating wise

for what it is worth i would be happy if both horses went there fresh if i fancied them...morning assembly and briar hill have both got good records off the back of absences and have the experience in the bag already this season

but the 2 horses are by shantou and 2 high class novices too, so will be interested to see if i am right in my assessment of the sire as we stand and whether the said horses improve much more than they have so far

there is no doubt, they should do

Assembly likely to skip Moriarty

Morning Assembly is likely to sidestep the Dr PJ Moriarty Novice Chase at Leopardstown and head straight for the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March.

Pat Fahy's Grade One-winning hurdler looked the part in winning his first two outings over fences and was far from disgraced when runner-up behind Galway Plate hero Carlingford Lough in the Topaz Novice Chase at Leopardstown's Christmas Festival.

The seven-year-old holds an entry on Hennessy Gold Cup day, but Fahy is keen to ensure his charge lines up at Prestbury Park in the best possible shape.

The trainer said: "It has been a plan all the way through (the season) to aim for Cheltenham, everything has gone well so far and I think we'll stick to the plan.

"He's got his experience and it's just a case of sticking to the routine now. We'll keep him nice and fresh and he won't be doing anything major.

"Cheltenham isn't far away at all now. In another couple of weeks it will seem very close, so we'll just try and keep him sound and healthy. The RSA is his main target. We gave him an entry in the four-miler (National Hunt Chase), but that was just in case something cropped up."

Ruby Walsh has been in the saddle on each of Morning Assembly's three chase starts, but is likely to be partnering one of Willie Mullins' formidable team in the RSA Chase, although Fahy is not giving up hope.

"We'll hold out as much as we can for Ruby. You never know what might happen. We've managed to get him up to now and people didn't think we'd be able to," said the trainer.

"If we can't get Ruby then there's Davy Russell and Davy Condon coming back. I don't think we'll be short of options."

This simply cannot win now without a prep. Holding a 16/1 voucher that would be as well be in the bin. Do trainers just not know the stat that most punters know???

Yeah I'm on at 25/1 but not holding out much hope now he goes straight to the festival. I'd drop Pat Fahy an email and point it out if I could!! Obviously I know f**k all about training horses but it's a pretty damning statistic. Time for rupert and Grands Crus spring to mind as recent fancied runners in the RSA who went there without a prep and ran poorly.

Rather trust the trainer myself.
Don't bother me at all to be honest,if hes happy.

Each to their own though.

Yeah can see why I mean only 50 years since a horse won this without prepping in same calendar year and he got beat LTO by a nag that's 2/13 over fences. Miracle if it wins

I've written a piece on the run in a calendar year stat. The one stat people throw up that makes me face palm. The sheer laziness of it is what does my head in.

I'll dig it out and post it up. Suffice to say that there isn't even a shred of statistical significance to it.

I would guess that 90% of RSA runners have run in that calender year.

A lot of stats are nonsense. You've got to take each horse on its merit. Hurricane Fly "Montjeu's are no good." that year he was the top sire at Cheltenham.

Take a guess how many horses in the past 12 years have run in the RSA and had not run since xmas festivals? ie the period 26th-31st Dec

five

I love stats and have backed this horse ante post.
Idealy i would like every horse i back 2 have a prep but if he is good enough then he will win regardless

It's actually 9

In 5 of the last 12 years every horse had run in calendar year.

So there is only 7 years that had horses who fit the bill running in it

Of those 9 horses, First Lieutenant came 2nd and Back in Front was in with every chance in 2006 before he unseated.


Now if you take those 9 horses and their sp and work out the implied win % (ie 1/ decimal odds) then adjust for a 120% overround book we'll get the chances each horse had of winning based on betting

We can then get 100% - their chances of winning = the chances they don't win. Now we can multiply those together to get the % chance that they all didn't win.

It's 33% chance. Hardly a very unlikely event now is it!!!


Now take into account First Lieutenant & Grands Crus were beaten by Bobs Worth, would the result have been different if it was Bobs going there Fresh and not the other tow??

Also going back into the 90's and beyond it's very rare for a horse not to run in calendar year and if they didn't it was usually due to injury/setback and not trainers choice. Horses needed to race back then to get fit. Look at the modern era, nearly all Gold Cup horses don't run in calendar year after King George / Lexus. Training has changed, racecourse gallops are allowed, trainers have big gallops at home now too.

Agree mate. Henderson was on last week saying they're much better off working the horses this close to Cheltenham on the all weather gallop rather than leave their race behind in these conditions

SJ has a point in that some statistics are meaningless but where there is a justifiable reason behind a statistic I think the should at least be taken note of. In this instance I would say that the RSA is invariably a tough, gruelling race and there can be no substitute for the match practice of a recent run.

There's been some very well fancied horses turn up for this without a prep run and disappoint on the day, I'll certainly be siding with something that's had a recent outing. And if morning assembly proves me wrong and lands me a decent payout on my ante post bet I'll gladly admit I was wrong!

Which are these fancied horses that have turned up and disappointed? I guess I could give you Time For Rupert but he broke a blood vessel....

Yeah time for rupert was one and whilst he did break a blood vessel if I recall correctly he was in the process of running a shocker before that became an issue. Grand Crus another....

I suspect there is a correlation between the absence of RSA winners for 50 years who were without a run in the calendar year and a lack of experience.  There are plenty of examples of older horses that don't run from Christmas onwards and win or do very well in March. But these tend to be more experienced horses who don't get too geed up from a three month break and who have enough experience at jumping not to suffer from a lack of match practice.

Having said all of that I believe Morning Assembly is essentially a good jumper so may prove an exception to the rule. The real questions are, of course, is he good enough or does he find one too good on the day.

Personally, I hope not as I'm a big Ballycasey fan. However, on another level it would be nice to see a small trainer win at the Festival.

Including Lord Windermere, 4 out of the last 5 winners haven't won another race since.

TFR missed the Argento with a setback and hadn't run since early December. He does not fit the "plan was to go straight there" ala say First Lieutenant.


As for the recent race practice. Why would the RSA be different to the Arkle in that respect? Simonsig & Sizing Europe won the Arkle off a break. The difference is due to just a random stat, like Henderson has never trained a Neptune winner (until Simonsig) there will always be random stats in the game. Montjeu never had a Cheltenham winner and you have people writing long pieces about why this has happened. A simple look at the dung horses who he had sired who had attempted to win at the festival showed that stat had no bearing on Hurricane Flys chances, it was just a random stat.

No horse has regained a Gold Cup, no horse since Comedy of Errors has regained the Champion Hurdle. and so on and so on.

Meritless stats, racing is the mecca of pointless stats.


Worry about a horses talent and less about these stats, it'll serve you well.

If Morning Assembly wins don't get me wrong I will be a happy camper at 16/1.

duffy 10 Feb 14 22:38 Joined: 28 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 12,010 | Blogger: duffy's blog
Including Lord Windermere, 4 out of the last 5 winners haven't won another race since.

2 of the last 7 winners won the next years Hennessy and Gold Cup. While another won 2 Ryanairs and a Mellins Chase. The race sure bottomed them

Also Weapons Amnesty essentially never raced again so including him in a stat is a bit misleading.

I don't get these throw away stats or why people love to throw them around so much

6 out of the last 6 posts on this thread by CVByrne have been very interesting and enlightening.....he's hit a 100% strike rate today !

Good stuff

2 of the last 7 winners won the next years Hennessy and Gold Cup. While another won 2 Ryanairs and a Mellins Chase. The race sure bottomed them


That is precisely what makes the fact that a few other recent winners winning nothing at all so strange.

Cooldine had problems the next season and beyond yet still managed a 1/2l 2nd in the Irish Hennessy.

Weapons Amnesty got injured after the RSA and never raced again. Injury happens.

Lord Windermere hasn't won a race because he's contested 2 grade 1's and the Hennessy. Also his form is down to all his trainers horses running well below themselves all season.

I do believe the very hard gruelling season had a permanent effect on Bostons Angel though, not specifically the RSA.


That's my take on those horses really.

the problem with some rsa chases is some horses just aren't good enough moving forward...last years race as an example was a poor renewal and was before they started then these poor horses have to go up against seasoned top class campaigners nothing to do with the race itself as these horses would of struggled moving forwards even if they hadn't taken the race in imo

however the race itself is littered with top class horses denman, looks like trouble, albertas run, bobs worth, mr mulligan, long run to name but a few that ran in the race

Yep, totally agree....one man, barton bank, good old young hustler and even earth summit ran in it.

Each to their own really - I've used trends etc as part of my analysis/ betting on the festival for a good few years and have turned a profit in seven of the last eight years so I'd say that approach has served me fairly well! More than one way to skin a cat!

Take on aboard the point about the likelihood of those horses without a recent run not all winning, all part of the fun though with everyone having different approaches etc.

By all means stick to what has served you well. I just view things in my own way and it's very analytical. There is such limited data sets that trends are too wide a net for me to use. They're from an older era. The amount of data that is out there now is huge and most importantly the access to race replays.

We've got the RP via the iPad. We've twitter. We've In running odds data. We've downloadable official ratings in excel format. Horse trackers with notes sections.

What people try to approximate with trends I feel can be surpassed by individual Analysis.

But that as I've said is the approach I'm taking and developing. Meticulous record keeping. I'm still miles off where I want to be but progressing well.

I think people should always be looking to adapt. You'll be left behind if you stick to what's tried and trusted. It may be out of date soon. Who knows.

cv at this stage what your chelt banker..or have u one til closer to the day?

I think Faugheen, Hurricane Fly and Felix Yonger look mega strong and the first two are my biggest bets of the festival.

I I think Mullins could be on for a record setting . He has strong favourites in the majority of the grade 1 races.

Totally agree Voodo if thats what works for you but some people stick rigidly to the stats. I love the "horses who win the Feltham cant win the RSA". I wonder if trainers after winning the Feltham think "oh well thats ballsed up our chances in the RSA"

Felix for the Arkle or JLT CV?

Felix Yonger looks mega strong??

And how many horses have actually won the RSA after winning the Feltham?

yes i agree with cvbyrne..felix yonger looks really strong...look at his form bally on gd ground..if he gets his ground he should be favourite for JLT!!

He's in my ante post bets but wouldn't say he's really strong at all even on good ground. Think CV Byrne fancies Mullins to win every race bar the RSA

yeah agree with that..totally under estimating the opposition, very biased on the Irish horses or should i say willie mullins horses

if he gets his ground should be in the Arkle!!

Bally,
CV likes Ballycasey for the RSA  as well,and hes right to.

I don't the problem with fancying Mullins to win in a number of different races, it's different to expecting him to win them all. I fancy a horse of his in all the novice hurdles and novice chases. Do I actually think he'll win them all, hell no... But I don't need them all to win to turn a profit.

Ballycasey,Vautour and Faugheen at this stage all look the best horses in their races,well to me they do.
So I see nowt wrong with backing accordingly.
Who cares who trains them???

Agree Budd.

Bally Felix is completely ground dependent, so his two 2nds on bad ground look some good runs in my opinion. On better ground he's soundly beaten Defy Logic & Trifolium and when he gets his ground he jumps like a cat.

I think the English novices are a sorry bunch by and large this season - with the exception of Nicholls. I also think Hendo's string are not in the best order, he's been very quiet this season something just doesn't sit right. Also where are his novices? Oscar Whisky is the only one even on the edge of the radar.

Mullins has two of the wealthiest owners in Ricci & Wiley arming his ranks both hungry for Gold Cup winners so we have seen a powerful string of novices come his way. The reason I fancy his a lot is mostly due to the complete lack of depth in the novice ranks.

Go look at the Neptune or Albert Bartlett you've 2 at a push 3 horses who you could say have a good chance, the rest are much of a muchness.

You've Red Sherlock as 2nd Fav in the Neptune, he's trained by Pipe who is atrocious at training Grade 1 horses, gets them beat constant at the festival. Not only that but the horse was all out to beat what was  Mullins 3rd string for the Albert Bartlett, Rathvinden who was giving him 3lbs and is a 20/1 shot.

I think if you went out and backed Champ Fever (4/1), Hurricane Fly (10/3), Quevega (10/11), Faugheen (7/2), Ballycasey (5/1), Black Hercules(8/1), Felix Yonger(10/1) & Briar Hill(5/1) now for whatever stake you'd come out with a handsome profit. He has a stunning string this season.


Just because you fancy a lot of Mullins horses doesn't mean that in some way means you'll go and lose money at the festival. My love of Mullins is getting on his lot in October, November, Decmber and sitting there in early March when they have become over bet and going off 6/4 and 13/8. Then people retrospectively going oh if you'd backed all Mullins at sp you'd have made x loss. When one of those 6/4 winners was 5/1 in Feb & 16/1 in November.

I think quite a few of those Mullins horses will halve in odds between now and their final sp. 

Just simply go through each race, one by one. First remove horses who will not run in it, next remove horses who won't win it, then look at whats left, look at what the book of those is priced to.


Actually, I'll do this for the Arkle now this evening and throw it up on my site. Sort of explain my thinking on antepost betting. Everyone has their own methods. I can only give my opinions here, I'm not saying anyone else is wrong etc.. it's all just opinions at this stage. They become facts in March

Good post geez...you know I've always got the tongue in the cheek...backed a few of Mullins myself...Faugheen Felix Bally Annie

Yeah the trends aren't the be all and end all for me when I'm looking at a race, just something I pay consideration to. Like the sound of your approach - I'd love to spend more time looking at racing like that but my spare time seems to have disappeared somewhat with a nine month old son......! Good luck with it all though, sounds good.

For what it's worth I too think Felix Yonger on better ground would have a great chance in the Arkle, only doubt would be that those two runs on heavy going haven't been an ideal prep.

Does twitter really turn up much of use?!

Couldn't agree more CV and said the same thing a few days ago. Back your chosen top ten of WPM's runners and I just can't we you not making decent money.

CVB - I've had a hunch that Ruby knew the quality of the Mullins horses prior to quitting PN. I backed both CF and Faugheen with Bill's and NRFB with Victor in November. Backed Vautour with Fred after it's maiden win and Felix NRFB again with Victor. I have also done some multiple bets with the aforementioned and Briar Hill (for AB), and Avrika (for Rynnair).

At the moment I've got the odds and it appear all bar Avrika are going for the race I would like them to run in. But I'm not counting my chickens yet.

As you say one winner out of the first 4 mentioned will mean a nice profit.

Good punting to all.

Forty

I forgot I've also gift Ballycasey in the multiple bets but not to win as a single

Forty

Agree with CVB. Mullins could well do at Cheltenham what he's done for years at Punchestown, i.e. completely dominate. Do you think, therefore, CVB that Ruby at around 4/6 is a sound bet for champion jockey?

He's a cracking bet for top jockey. I wouldn't bet it as it's concentration risk. ie I've backed pretty much every Mullins horse so if he didn't win top jock I'd have had a bad Cheltenham most likely

buddeliea 11 Feb 14 18:55 Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 10,078 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog
Ballycasey,Vautour and Faugheen at this stage all look the best horses in their races,well to me they do.
So I see nowt wrong with backing accordingly.
Who cares who trains them???




Budde, that's 3 favourites. 3 horses, 3 races, and 3 favourites. Often the favourite does look the best horse hence their market position, but you can be pretty sure all 3 won't win. Or are you backing (backed) as singles?

buddeliea 11 Feb 14 18:55 Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 10,078 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog
Ballycasey,Vautour and Faugheen at this stage all look the best horses in their races,well to me they do.
So I see nowt wrong with backing accordingly.
Who cares who trains them???




Budde, that's 3 favourites. 3 horses, 3 races, and 3 favourites. Often the favourite does look the best horse hence their market position, but you can be pretty sure all 3 won't win. Or are you backing (backed) as singles?

Have backed Ballycasey early doors,and been fortunate to have a price.
Other 2 are involved in various covering multiples ,missed the prices on those.
It is possible that they are still value,but my sort of punting wont back them now.

I would suggest that it is never a good idea to back anyone for the leading jockey for any of the festivals until the Sunday evening.

Ladbr0kes briefly went 2/1 Walsh for top jockey earlier in the week, albeit to small stakes (max £25 I think).