Cheltenham Festival
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c.v you seem to have a bit of insight on the wp mullins yard ,which festival races do you think champ fever,felix younger, and annie power will end up contesting tia.
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And while you're at it CVB give us a clue on Moyles Park, Vautour, Faugheen and Briar HIll……….put me out of my misery. Pleeeeeeeeeeze.
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Hey, I’m still confident Champ fever will go for Arkle, Felix for the Jewson, Faugheen for Neptune & Briar Hill for Albert Bartlett
From reading comments on champ Fever I think they’re a bit annoyed they took on Defy Logic instead of letting him give them a tow, Ruby still seems adamant he’s an Arkle horse. So my thinking is he’ll go for Irish Arkle and do just that, track Defy Logic and make the decision based on that run. Felix was not lacking for stamina when he lost, he was staying on and it was likely the ground that beat him not the trip. From the post race comments on Faugheen they felt like they could put him in and win this race despite the trip and class. He is still too keen and doesn’t jump well when going slowly. I’d imagine he’d need the faster pace of a Neptune to help his jumping as he seems to jump better when pace quickens. He certainly has gears and looks best suited for the Neptune. Briar Hill only does enough and his breeding is as an out and out stayer. Mullins keeps mentioning it in post race comments. I’d think given how he conserves energy and only does enough he’d be tailor made for the Albert Bartlett where he will not do too much too early and tire. I’d expect him to possibly go for the 2m4f race at Leopardstown Boston Bob won before with Faugheen dropping back to 2m2f for the Deloitte possibly. I don’t think plans have changed just yet. |
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thanks cv much about the way I see it, defy logic hasseled and harried champ fever up front and in hindsight they should have tucked in behind instead of getting into a duel up front . anyway champ fever went out to a very attractive price after that defeat and it was too big and still is now imo.
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agree with everything you have said but still got a sneeky feeling briar hill for the supreme hopefully !
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The Irish Arkle will determine the race for CF.If he fails again hes not in the Arkle,imo.
And until he actually wins a race over 2m over fences remains imo a bad price for the Arkle. Hes the price he is based on bumper and hurdles form. |
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Cfever wins at 2m4,drops back in trip to 2m and gets beat.
Fyonger wins at 2m(twice)goes up in trip to 2m 4 and gets beat. Conclusion: CF in Jewson FY in Arkle Simple really. But we all know this is Mullins and it aint simple!! |
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He didn't fall budd he just made a bad mistake at the key fence in the race. He has won over 2m twice at Cheltenham and they go a seriously fast clip in the Arkle, you need to stay and you need to jump to win it. I think he's very much an Arkle horse but he needs to go close in the Irish Arkle.
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Im just saying mate. Of course CF can win the Arkle, I think hes more chance in the Jewson though.
I also think FY can win the Arkle and his form this season backs that up. Think hes got a fair chance in the Jewson too mind you. |
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Cv I said fail not fall my friend.
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my bad, I misread it as fall. I agree he needs to run a good race in the Irish Arkle next. I think he will too
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I have to confess to a bit of pocket talking mate.
 Got FY nrfb at nice odds for Arkle,and have CF at nrfb for Jewson. Do honestly think that FY is a proper 2 miler though who has proven his Arkle credentials, would be a shame if he weren't allowed to run imo. CF will be bl00dy hard to beat in a Jewson imo. Not so sure re the Arkle. |
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Last weekend in January is going to be interesting. Like CVB, I don't necessarily think he needs to win at Leopardstown, especially if the ground is bottomless but he does need to jump well and go close. He is being trained to peak 6 weeks later.
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If Champagne Fever made a mistake like that in an Arkle he'd hit the deck.hes short for me just now but then I've not got a scooby about this Arkle at all
Has the bumper/supreme/Arkle ever been done before btw? |
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Dont believe any horse has ever tried . Ch Bumper only in existence 21 years anyway
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al ferof 2nd bumper won supreme and tried arkle bad mistake ended any chance he had against sprinter sacre 1
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cue card placed supreme won bumper placed arkle .
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Surprising that I can only see one horse to have done double Supreme/Arkle about 50 years back and also only Simonsig did Neptune/Arkle double. Some of course dont go chasing but would have expected more success. On another thread sometime back I gave figures on how the novice hurdle winners fair in the following years CH and they also have a desparate record. It does appear that those who place have a better chance of success the following year. I reckon CF will buck the Supreme/Arkle trend this year but then we are trying to pick the winner when we dont know whats running. Backed CF way back for the Arkle but all along said ROR was the value but have not touched him. I still believe if he remains fit and well CF is long odds on to run in the Arkle.
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If Champagne Fever made a mistake like that in an Arkle he'd hit the deck.
Why do you think that Bally?? Why would he not fall in Ireland but would fall at Cheltenham. Please don't say stiffer fences |
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TED WALSH USED TO SAY YOUD CYCLE A BYCLE THRU THEM FENCES IN CHELTENHAM COMPARED TO THE FOXROCK VENUE
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They would be going a deal faster in the Arjkle against better animals on probable faster ground. Momentum would do the rest.
Personally I think 9/2 5/1 at the mo is right rank value but then again I look at likes of dodging bullets,hinterland and defy logic who all used to sleep in kennels rather than stables over hurdles |
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I know its chasing as against hurdling but DB has about 50 lengths to make up on CF on Supreme running. Besides the Mullins stable has always maintained from way back that CF jumped fences very well.
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He's the one I would take if pushed for sure but no way at 5/1.need to be special to do bumper supreme Arkle imo
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I think Champagne Fever will be aimed at the Arkle but wouldn't be shocked to see Felix Younger line up there too. Mozoltov could end up in the Jewson. Two of that three will end up clashing in either the Arkle or the Jewson.
A lot of fuss being made over Annie Power. In my opinion if she goes to Cheltenham at all then it will be for one race and that's the Stayers. |
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Too much fuss being made over Annie Power imo and I am on her for the World.
To be honest, too much fuss being made over several Mullins inmates but see this every year. |
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Basically cv knows as much about whats going on with Mullins as anyone else.Keep guessing everyone
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The Tullow Tank has won 2 grade ones and would be favourite for the Neptune if trained by Mullins but that's ok...Fenton will do and 14/1 is massive. Laughed at a Mullins unbeaten hotpot Moyle Park last time and will be even better the further he goes.
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dont think the tullow tank would laugh at briar hill or faugheen,do agree 14s is massive though !
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I think part of the reason he's that price is because he's a second season novice. He has clearly improved a lot since last year though, but it always leaves a nagging doubt in my mind that the other runners may have more improvement in them. Saying that however, 14/1 still does seem a big price.
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Running plans still the same CV?
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" if champagne fever hit one like that in the arkle he would be on the deck" true but what we must realise is that the festival is where most if not all a very large %of horses will be 110%fit and on their a game ,whereas in these preps or trials where I like to think the top trainers leave a bit to work on and we have to remember that the top boys are conscious of leaving the race behind in trials ,therefore the likeleyhood of mistakes is polarised in the preps,the big day is when it matters .
I remember (aftertiming I know ) years back talking about backing tuichev for the arkle with a friend and he said "if he makes the same mistake he made at sandown in the arkle he will be on the floor )came to the above conclusion about fitness on the big day and backed him, horse 100%on the day it mattered and won ,of course it dosent always work out like that but a point to bear in mind regards jumping in trials . after all champagne fever jumped perfectly well until the 2nd last . |
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Had it from a fairly good source that ruby still expects to be on CF in the arkle. Lots can change in the next 8 weeks though
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I'd argue that part of the enjoyment of the festival is the debate about who goes where and for me you can't get too much of that. I'd be surprised if CF doesn't line up in the Arkle.
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I'd expect whoever runs in the Irish Arkle between Champagne Fever and Felix Yonger will run in the Arkle at Cheltenham.
I know Ruby wants to get another crack at Defy Logic. |
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Should run both in irish Arkle,certainly FY has earned the right with his top form this season at 2m.
Would be a travesty if he weren't contesting the top 2m nov chases imo. |
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Well I think there is no chance they'll both run in the same race at Cheltenham. I can see both running in Irish Arkle to settle who goes for Jewson and who goes for Arkle. But Mullins prefers to keep his best horses apart and I could easily see one of them going for the 2m5f Grade 2 on the same card, race won by Sir Des Champs 2 years ago en route to Jewson golory.
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Owners want to go to Cheltenham with a runner with a good chance of winning. Now if CF and FY both run in the Irish Arkle then its most likely that one will have a very hard race and a burst bubble to go with it (I have a fair idea which one). Its a bit like people saying Annie Power and UDS should take on The Fly in the Irish CH. If some people on here had their way there would be no need to have Cheltenham at all - it would be all sorted out in advance.
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Whoever runs in the Irish Arkle will know they have been in a race looking at the likely runners. They will have 6-7 weeks to recover though.
Horses don't need to run against each other I agree,but when a trainer says he will run a horse in a race to see what its target should be(CF)then he has to run him. Maybe he wont run FY in the race,and he runs him in another race,fair enough as long as he still sees him as a 2m horse as he has said he is, and we all know he is on his form over fences this season. My worry as a FY backer is he is sacrificied for a horse that does not have the form to compare at 2m chasing. If at the end of the day,FY is in the Arkle,and CF is in the Jewson,then imo the right decision will have been reached(eventually)and the connections will have their best chance of winning both races.......based on what ive seen this season. |
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You may be 100% correct Budd but if we had made the decision last year CF would not have been in the Supreme. There would be something wrong if we know more about a horse than the trainer.
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Yeh,thats fair mate,but WE have to go on the evidence on the track in trying to find the race for a horse. All the evidence I see points to FY in Arkle, CF in Jewson.
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