Cheltenham Festival
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Yeah it is first 8, not first 6. The abandoned loophole is removed also.
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Pm sent GI Mac, Pau race result.
Thought Broadway Buffalo ran a interesting race behind Fingal Bay on Sunday. |
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Cheers pal, be nice if one of these French types turned up!
Indeed, Broadway Buffalo interesting, should get in easily enough on his current mark. |
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Philip Hobbs has certainly thrown 2 new hats in the ring. Fingal Bay could be hard to beat if he suffers no effects after a lay off while If in Doubt might be the JP. number 1.
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Qualifying Races & Qualifiers
Cheltenham - Friday, October 18 Trackmate, Benbane Head, So Fine, On The Bridge, Up For An Oscar, Act Of Kalanisi, Rare Bob, Cross Kennon. Aintree - Sunday, October 27 Ely Brown, Gauvain, Lovcen, Orsippus, Burton Port, First Fandango, (Marlin Bay PU in a 7 runner field assumed he does not qualify). Auteuil - Sunday, November 3 Seabreeze, D'Ho Portos, Marzio Astigos, Karnat, Saphina De Kerser, Anik De Maspie, Tsar Des Bieffes, Fabuleux Farceur. Kempton Park - Monday, November 4 God’s Own, Like Minded, Pateese, Seventh Sign, Grand Crus, The Crafty Butcher. Newbury - Friday, November 29 Mickie, Pateese, Red Not Blue, Twelve Roses, Kilmurvy, Western Warhorse, Invicta Lake, Minella For Stake. Sandown Park - Saturday, December 7 Saphir Du Rhea, Home Run, Whisper, Upswing, Utopie Des Bordes, Drum Valley, Oscar Magic, Bourne. Carlisle - Sunday, December 15 Kaki De La Pree, Pineau De Re, Trustan Times, Our Joey, Neptune Equester, Lie Forrit, Rock Relief (2 pulled up in 9 runner field, assume the last of those two Howizee did not qualify). Cagnes sur Mer - Monday, December 16 Lunatorio, Bois Du Plesses, Tomtit, Tango Chop, Heure D’Hiver, Venise Jelois, Air Shot, Pops Borget Wincanton - Thursday, December 26 Champagne West, Old Tricks, Southfield Theatre, Oscar Prairie, Seabright, Party Rock, Chesil Beach Boy (Only 8 runners, assuming Upswing did not qualify, fell at last). Leopardstown - Saturday, December 28 Courage, Seefood, Supreme Carolina, Gold Patrol, Followmeuptocarlow, El Fontan, Sarabad, Vics Canvas. Cagnes sur Mer - Sunday, January 5 Catmoves, My Maj, Attikos, Tango Lima, Wanaba, Don Lujan Warwick - Saturday, January 11 Uncle Jimmy, Grand Vision, Drop Out Joe, Bygones Sovereign, Ballyculla, Oscar Fortune, Who Owns Me, Billy Twyford Pau - Sunday, January 16 Rocketir, Taupin Rochelais, My Summer, Voiladenuo, Monsamou, Lovely Kiss, Temps Au Temps Ire, Soleil De Vati Huntingdon - Friday, January 24 Josies Orders, Dawn Twister, San Telm, Cannon Fodder, Milan Bound, Monetary Fund, Seymour Eric, Seven Woods Punchestown – Sunday, February 2 Jetson, Thunder And Roses, Inis Meain, Festive Felon, Gold Patrol, Clonard Lad, Sadler’s Risk, Questions Answered Musselburgh - Sunday, February 2 Wyse Hill Teabags, Mister Dillon, Crowning Jewel, Any Given Moment, Attaglance, Pay The King, Capellanus, Golden Plan Pau - Sunday, February 2 Monsamou, Delrom, Compatriote, Walk Sibo, Lovely Kiss, Rocketir Exeter - Sunday February 9 Fingal Bay, If In Doubt, Imperial Leader, Quartz De Thaix, Broadway Buffalo, Old Tricks, Carole's Destrier, Tweedledrum Haydock Park - Saturday, February 15 Top Wood, Astigos, Wolf Shield, Quel Elite, Open Day, San Telm, Chavoy, Extreme Impact. Chepstow - Saturday, February 22 |
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Where did you get 25s the best I can see is 16s
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Where did you get 25s the best I can see is 16s
Won yesterday's qualifier at 25/1. |
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Doh
  Well done swarden |
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Been looking through the horses who qualified and looking for ones on 136 or above as that's what you probably will need to get in. The two I like are Seefood & If in Doubt
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Only one more qualifier to go before the entries come out. I must admit I do enjoy the race perversely; it’s a tough one to find the winner.
I thought I’d stick down some info/trends on the race which may, or may not assist! I aint no stats man, but I do believe studying the history of a race is extremely useful in predicting the winner, especially at the festival, but it’s important to be flexible. BREEDING The last 10 winners have been Irish or GB bred, 5 each. This isn’t much of a surprise given they have made up around 80% of the runners, but given the amount of French breds we see these days, I’m surprised they haven’t registered a win. Good reason to ignore them surely? I wouldn’t. A total of 37 have run in the past 10 years with only a handful really fancied; such as favourites Sam Winner, Chartreaux & Miko De Beauchene. The last named came second in 2008, same position that Son Amix finished in 2011, they have mustered a total of 5 places which have all come in the last 6years. They are getting nearer and I wouldn’t be put off backing a French bred. AGE 9 of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 & 9 years old. Only the mighty 10yo Buena Vista  ruined this particular stat, and you have to go back to the early eighties and triple winner Willie Wumpkins to find another horse older than 9 to win. I think it’s fair to say these two were race specialists. A total of 31 horses older than 9 have ran in the last 10 years, yielding 1 winner and 2 places, not a great return; as such I’d concentrate on the younger brigade. But not a 5yo I hear the stat boys scream; Only one 5yo has won this race in its 39 year history and that was back in 1988 when Pragada won for Josh Gifford (before my time, no idea what he was like). These types of stats always need some context. Looking at the past 10 renewals, 22 five yo’s have ran which is around 10% of the runners, and has yielded 5 places in total, the best of which was two 2nd places; Son Amix (2011) and Mioch D’Estruval (2005), you can also add 3 fifth places to this list. They have not been running badly. This 5yo stat could be a reason why most are relatively un-fancied, the shortest price 5yo was Robin Du Bois who went off 7/JF in 2008 and finished 8th. The price of the placed 5yo’s were 33/1, 16/1, 12/1, 66/1 & 50/1. The 5yo’s who tend not to run well, are ones who carry big weights and/or, are not French bred: It’s a tough race to carry big weights against your elders, especially for the late maturing Irish and GB bred. Stick to French five year olds with a low weight. WEIGHT & OR If your fancy is topweight, then he is up against it, they have a woeful record. The best weight carrying performance in the last 10 years was Kadoun in ‘06, he was the second highest rated in the field at 144, his claimer took his weight down to 11.7! Of the 40 win and placed horses, 10 carried more than 11st, (4 of these from last year). Of the 10 winners, 8 carried less than 11stone. The other winner to carry more than 11st was last years winner Holywell who had 11.4. So on first glance it looks like we should be looking for a horse set to carry less than 11st, which let’s face it, is a big advantage in festival handicaps, especially over 3miles. But what about last years renewal, and Kadoun for that matter? Last year the highest rated was 148, the lowest rated 135; a difference of 13. This is a compressed handicap for a 24 runner field; only 4 horses actually carried less than 11 stone! In Kadouns renewal it was 144 to 125; a difference of 19. Not as drastic a difference, but two horses made the frame carrying over 11stone that year. When you look at years with bigger differences between top and bottom like 04, 07 & 10, all horses placed carried less than 11st. This correlation is useful and worth checking out when the decs are made: If it’s a compressed handicap then weight will be less of a factor, but I’d still avoid the topweight regardless. The race is getting classier; in 04 the bottom rated was 120 and last year it was 135; it is on an upward trend, in 2012 it was 137. The top rated can vary but essentially it is on the increase with more 150+ horses running in recent renewals. If you’re thinking of backing one anti-post, and concerned whether he gets in, I’d only consider those around the 138 mark as a minimum for the time being. This is one area where the new qualification rules may make a difference. PRICE Many people don’t bother much with handicaps at the festival, preferring to concentrate on the graded races to find winners. It’s a fair enough stance, as festival handicaps are fiercely competitive and difficult to work out the plots, but they do have a habit of throwing up big prices, particularly The Pertemps which has an average SP of 24/1. As such if your horse is a big price don’t worry, in fact put more on is my advice. A big winner in a handicap can make your festival. More to follow…….. |
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great thread, GI MAC - thank you.
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Lovcen is one for this race, 2 years but only 5 hurdle races ago this thin was beating Fingal Bay at level weights when that horse was in his pomp...Lovcen is now rated a lowly 135!!!!
He's had a sporadic career since but only raced on his favoured ground once in those 5 hurdle runs...he's qualified, is a thorough stayer and battles.....whether he's an intended runner is up in the air however as he's been sold and no longer with King and I don't know who has him now...he's 33/1 in a few places....very well handicapped horse though |
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I had a look at lovecen, won't get in off 135 I don't think and though he may be well handicapped I think he's possibly gone at the game. Tough siding with a horse who's run so poorly for so long
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Like GI MAC, I have an unhealthy obsession with this race (and the coral cup). The fiendishness of this puzzle is a real attraction and something to enjoy throughout the season as the clues come together. As a Buena Vista man, I have had some great success in this race and having seen all the qualifiers, have a view on the likely types.
Get next week out of the way and the weights and we can really start to form a picture |
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I see Top Wood has been re-assessed from 130 to 140. Initially I though this was harsh but I still think there could be some improvement. It was 30 lengths clear of the 3rd and pulled really hard at the start of the race (could be excepted after so long off). The second in the Haydock qualifier, Astigos runs today at Exeter. It has gone up 7lb for that second but can run off its old mark today. Even with a win today it would be unlikely to get in the pertempts but it may give a marker to the Top Wood form (assuming this run does come to quickly).
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My 2 best winners of the race were Freetown and Rubhahunish, both from the Shirley Heights and Darshaan line. In those days the race was a furlong farther and that was crucial in bringing extreme stamina into play. The ride that Carl Llewellyn gave Rubha was one of the outstanding rides at the Festival.
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Remember Inching Closer v Royal Emperor race, what a finish that one was!!
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Top banana that was!
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Hobbs has a great hand in this one. I thought the Exeter race was a cracking qualifier, and whilst Fingal Bay ran out a decent winner, I don't think If in Doubt was given an especially tough time. Add in Champagne West and even Uncle Jimmy who won the Warwick qualifier and you have 4 horses who will likely get a run if making the final decs. Winner comes from the Exeter race in my mind.
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Has Hobbs showntoo much though to win the final? Absolute hats off to him for running his on their merits in these when others are messing about- but I reckon the winner may have been more sparingly campaigned.....Dessie is some man for a target and will go close IMO
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I like Seefood in this race, back to form over hurdles and progressing very well, will be interesting to see how's he's assessed but around 140 would make him formidable.
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sorry, even 145.
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Final Qualifers from Chepstow yesterday: Buddy Bolero, Kris Spin, Awaywiththegreys, Viva Steve, Tidal Dance, One In A Milan, Cyrien Star, Tullyesker Hill.
Strange there was a qualifier after the entries came out, from the 8 above only One In A milan was not entered in the final. That makes a total of 142 horse who have qualified, with a total of 70 entered into the race. 36 horses qualified via the French races, but no French trainer has entered any of them, they seem pointless to me. Interestingly, Astigos now trained by Venetia Williams qualified first time round in the Auteuil November qualifier. |
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any1 know if seefood is an intended runner in this? cheers spot.
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Let’s start with Hobbs who has several qualified after mopping up this season in the qualifiers. I kind of nailed my colours to the mast by stating top weights have a woeful record in this, so that rules out favourite Fingal Bay! I wouldn’t back him at current prices, but I do think he could run very well, especially if the handicap is compressed. How many of this field could beat Simonsig?
He’s an intended runner according to this weeks stable tour, as is Hobbs’ other runner If In Doubt, but I’m not sure this one is well handicapped off 140, others disagree as he’s being backed today. Pateese was 19th in this last year and is on the same mark, Champagne West is heading for the novice hurdles, so forget those two. Uncle Jimmy is interesting, progressing and ran well lto, 20/1 is a good price; he’s the Hobbs runner I like the most. He was 4th in the Cheltenham November qualifier which is the most successful guide to the final. First Fandango has managed to get in here off a mark 4lbs below last year where he finished 9th with a 7lb claimer on board; I can’t see him winning after watching the race again. Jetson was the one to take out of last years renewal, passed plenty up the hill after being held up too far back. You can understand why a few on here have mentioned him, would surely have been closer with a better ride. I think that was his chance, as this year he is 7lbs higher, would be interesting if Jessie claims off him. Ely Brown also ran well last year but another higher in the weights this time. Those at the top of the handicap, Attaglance, Southfield Theatre, Sadler’s Risk I don’t think any of them have much in hand to win this. I looked at Trustan Times a few times as he is below his peak mark, but Nah. I shall also oppose those aged in double figures, none of them hold any secrets. Of those set to carry some weight, Grand Vision is surely the one, rated 141 after his novice hurdling season, which included a good 3rd at the festival, and races here off 142. 20/1 NRNB is available, that’s a solid ew bet. Nicky Henderson has a couple of interesting entries, in particular Utopie Des Bordes, who ran well at last years festival and his mark of 138 seems fair, will be better on decent ground. Pipe has Buddy Bolero but I think that one has blown his mark, he also has Top Wood and he was hugely impressive lto but I’d be worried about the bounce factor. Broadway Buffalo, not sure what to make of this one, is there a plot afoot? Jonjo must be considered in this as a multiple winner, but it’s not certain if his two Joses Orders and Open will get a run, the former looks very progressive but has a big hike in the weights to overcome. Mickie, On The Bridge, Party Roc and Crowning Jewel I feel all have too high a mark to overcome. I think the handicapper is trying to foil The Irish challenge (minus a Mullins hotpot I might add!) as Seefood and The Crafty Butcher both of which I like, have been given marks above their Irish ratings, a bit harsh I think. It’s put me off them for the time being. (Spotthedifference, according to Dessie Hughes stable tour on 29/01/14 it was all systems go for the Pertemps) So my shortlist at the moment is Uncle Jimmy (20/1), Grand Vision (20/1) and Utopie Des Bordes (25/1) |
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Hobbs owns the handicap.
Johnson will ride FB. will Tom Cheeseman(10) keep the ride? is this a +ve or lack of experience a factor. didn't hurt Buena Vista. some fine posts GI. cheers. *point of order. that November race wasn't a qualifier, but it was a warm heat and I like the hoss plenty. |
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*Point noted, cheers.
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Second favourite currently is Inis meain, who is number 40 in the list, rated 132, strong liklihood he doesn't get in. He's followed in the market by Champagne West, and according to the trainer in his most recent stable tour will head for a novice race due to his high rating. A few will drop out tomorrow with the 5day decs, and the market will be shaken up so I think I'll have my first bet.
Of the three I shortlisted I am going to bet Utopie Des Bordes 25/1 NRNB with a couple of layers. Well suited by 3miles and she'll love the drying ground, stable is peaking and has dropped to a good mark. I think the price will shorten once a few cotton on to this one. |
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good luck, mate - you deserve it after all the work you've done on the race.
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AN WONDERFUL THREAD,WELL DONE GIMAC
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can't understand all the money for Inish Meain when he's unlikely to get in ...
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Am I completely missing something here... if you back the BF market, and your horse doesn't make it in the money is gone, right !?
There's a punter here on BF looking for €120 at 20/1 on Clonard Lad (OR 128 ... ) that's just never gonna get in, and even if, he's no 20/1 shot ... |
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damn I see now that the bets are void if the horse is 'balloted out' ... right ?
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correct ffs
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A enjoyable thread so i hope the work pays off for you.
Going with Upswing/Broadway Buffalo myself but will only be small e/w punts. Best of luck GI Mac & have a great 4 days. |
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Thanks for comments fellas. Broadway Buffalo is quite intriguing gutfeeling.
Race beginning to take shape today, looking a lot like last year and a compressed handicap. Josies Hill needs one to come out, thinking I may be overlooking this Jonjo/JP runner! |
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Got one lined up for this
all I need is for major sunshine and dry wind! TRACKMATE take world of beating if the hound comes up good! 16/1 be gone pretty quick too ! |
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GI...Had a good look now we have final decs,have to say Utopia Des Bordes stands out at the weights.The other one I like is Jetson,144 minus the claim is workable, and as mentioned earlier in thread looks to have been the target all season.
As ever should be cracking race,thanks for your input GI. |
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aye, happy enough with my bet on UDB nocturnal, a little disapointed not to see Barry sitting on top, probably the reason he's not being backed. Only 13lb between top and bottom weight, it's a tough race to work out. I backed Broadway Buffalo yesterday at 33's a nice price, just think he's a Pipe plot. I will also back another I shortlisted, Uncle Jimmy, progressive type I like. So three to go to was with today.
Good luck all. |