Cheltenham Festival
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Sire de Grugy
Sire de Grugy
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Or you could take the view that Grey Gold was beaten 22 lengths by DB and 19 by SS off levels but SDG just beat him 7 lengths giving him 20lbs which is a great performance in my opinion.
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I think that performance may have been a bit overrated by some - and I'm not ahving that he ran to 170 today. The whole deal with SDG is whether or not he relaxs into his races. As long as his jumping isn't put under pressure, he goes ok. The minute he makes a mistake the game will be up. Who knows, he may be good enough as he was last year. I think I may end up with Champagne Fever. If he makes it a good gallop he will place an emphasis on jumping and I can't trust Sprinter, SDG or Dodgy - that leaves Mr Mole and if he wins a QM we should all give up!
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Im not sure where people get idea that SDG isnt a good jumper, only made a handful of mistakes in whole chasing career. Too much has been made of what happened at Newbury when returning from injury.
Jumped superbly today. |
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Mister Grez was carrying 14lb more than his h'cap and was only beaten 9 lengths. I'll admit it was a better performance than Newbury (it couldn't have been much worse) but let's not get carried away. I was on ground he loves and he was able to pop away all the way round in a 4 runner race. The complete opposite conditions await him in the Champion chase and in a stronger race than last year.
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Yeah Sonko, jumped great today and full of enthusiasm. I think it was the second last where he really gave it some air, and it was a very easy 9 lengths; I think there was a lot more petrol in the tank.
Overall, I've never really seen his jumping as an issue - that's why he's a much better chaser than he was a hurdler. As I put in this thread earlier today, this just shows how a horse can really improve for his first run back after a while. If Sprinter shows anywhere near as much improvement as SDG did between Newbury and today, it must be Sprinter's to lose, considering he had a much longer layoff than SDG - Sprinter will hopefully have his ground in a few weeks too. |
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I can't believe people are suggesting he's a bad jumper. There's only one better that will run in the QM imo.
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Tremendous bit of training from Gary Moore imo. He knew his horse needed that extra run. If it were NJH he would have wrapped him up in cotton wool until March 12th.
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surely no-one thinks they witnessed a 170 performance today though do they?
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fine run as it was
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No duffy,think you are right there not a 170 for me.
Anyway,hes not had a good prep at all,the race is better than last year,and hes had to do that yesterday just over 2 weeks before the QM. No thanks. |
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In theory you have seen a 170+ performance there. This is where handicaps and graded races can't always be related for me though...
Good to see him back for the sake of the race. As suggested above it's hard to see him unplaced so possibly looks a solid e/w bet. That's not my style though (e/w) and I'm unlikely to be a backer tbh. Still think Mr Mole will beat both SS and SDG. |
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I was just looking at the Champion Chase and the pace side of things is interesting. Special Tiara, Mr Mole, Champagne Fever and Hidden Cyclone all like to control things from the front so someone isn't going to get their tactics but it's still sure to be relentless pace. I imagine out of the four of them one or two will have been burned off by the downhill to the third last.
Last year a few horses took turns in leading and the outcome a fast pace and a fast finishing Sire De Grugy. It looks to me like the race will be ideally run for him again. Likewise Dodging Bullets and Sprinter Sacre but I'm keener on Sire De Grugy than either of them. |
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I've not bet in this race yet but if I had to it would deffo be SDG. I think the way he jumped and travelled yesterday indicates he's in fine form. He's a real robust hardy horse too who backed up runs in quick succession before. Maybe the unintended time off will stand him in good stead in that regard. Amazing scenes if he wins.
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I've laid all my Sprinter money off now for the same average odds that I backed him months ago - not because I don't fancy him, but I think his price may be a bit bigger nearer the time as I think the bookies will try and get him beat.
As long as Champagne Fever doesn't win I'll be quite happy! (Sorry CF backers). |
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Actually, I think i'm going to take some 4/1 NRNB on SDG, he'll be 3/1 on the day. I agree bookies will go after SS, simply because they know like we do that he is not as good as he was. He doesn't have to be, of course, but basically you're betting on horse who is not as good as he was.
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Out of the top 4 in the betting the only one I would consider is DB,hes had the perfect prep,and the perfect season.
I shall look at his odds on the day,or maybe NRNB may be the way to go. So far I have Mr Mole and Hidden Cyclone at nice odds and very happy with that. HC may go Ryanair so have covered him NRNB In that race. Mr Mole is a quirky one I know,but hugely talented and runs like he has last twice hes a big player,dont want him messing about at the start though!! but that's where the price comes in.He is a price now though that would have me thinking about punting him......or not. Given up on my Uxizandre bet,dont know whats happened to him since he beat DB earlier in the season. |
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Guess I should say DB had "almost" the perfect season,as my last sentence has him getting beaten by Uxizandre!!
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Last season in the QMCC SDG beat Somersby 6 lengths...this season, as an improved horse, DB beat him 2.5, so on form SDG has the beating of DB. If you're a strict form book guru.
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Yep, fair points.
Had SDG had a similar season to that of DB I would certainly have him as having a good chance of retaining his title. But its been far from that,and they have had to run him closer to the race than they would have liked,just to get him there.So now we have an awful build up plus a race that MAY leave its mark. I dunno,its possible yesterday will bring him spot on in 2 and a half weeks time,and if it does fair play to you and others, cos it means hes a big player. Theres Just not enough for me to be convinced he will be at his best, and at odds he is now or likely to be on the day, I just cannot have him. |
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I would much rather back a horse that ran 2 weeks ago rather than one that has run once in nearly 2 years.
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Budde, you may think I am being biased as I have just backed the horse, but to my mind his build up has not been awful when you put it into comparison with SS and More of That in the world hurdle. SDG has at least raced twice this season, both in the space of a couple of weeks, To do that the horse would have to been in good physical condition at home otherwise he'd not be running. That's the complete oppposite of what SS and MOT have had. You then have to consider SDG is unbeaten in his last 6 completed starts over fences. I reckon we're over complicating things here by looking at alternatives, 4/1 is available about a horse who beat everything last season.
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I think I probably would as well,but against that is the fact that at their best SS is a better horse.
I would not back either this year as ive said earlier,too much to chance at respective odds for me. |
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That was to sonko.
Yes Sint,we could we well be over complicating things and 4/1 may look good after the event. Sooner or later judgements have to be taken,ive done that and will live or die by that....so to speak. Yes he did beat everything last season,but hes yet to do that this season. Will he do it in March?? Yes,its possible, but Just not sure enough in my mind to back him. |
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Just to add, I think the same about MOT,and actually if I had to back one of SDG,SS and MOT,i would side with SDG.
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Am actually considering a nice each way double SDG/MOT right now
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