Faugheen

You could easily see Top Notch being the sacrificial lamb for P&C with MTOY's being an added beneficiary, not sure how long he'll stick with Faugheen but could mess him up a bit, however if P&C pulls like he did the other day he might end up having to be let loose and that'll help MTOY's too.

That was really strange how P&C pulled like that the other day, it was as bad as I've seen in a long long time.

The crying shame and an unfulfilled talent is MTOY's because as much as he pulls, he still finishes his race off pretty well considering, if he had settled he'd have already been a supreme and CH winner IMO, looking forward to seeing him back, hopefully he gets there.

Dunno if this is news, or someones just made a fairly sizeable mistake with the lay button but, he's just been matched at 1.98

There's next to nowt waiting to back him, but not looked at the market for a while, that could be the usual state of affairs.....

Nope, it's been one of the stronger ones in the market with plenty backing him and laying him for weeks now. Especially after peace n co got beat last time he hardened even further.

Somebody just had a decent bit on Arctic Fire taking all the 12.5 too. Probably nowt in it though.

Big rumours about him this evening, and theres rarely smoke without fire.

Rumours from who? This happens every Festival im afraid.

Bookmaker on oddschecker, net bet or something went 7/4 from 7/1 on Artic Fire for the champion

Must be reading the betfair forum

Most probably took a tenner on it,never heard of them?

Now stevo1 , them rumours are no longer rumours.

Out
No smoke indeed.
Terrible shame for the race of course

Def not smoke, im on these markets like a fly is on **** and i spotted the ripples as early as 2 days ago

SEATHESTARS....NO1 15 Feb 16 13:53 Joined: 04 Oct 09 | Topic/replies: 3,758 | Blogger: SEATHESTARS....NO1's blog
Dunno if this is news, or someones just made a fairly sizeable mistake with the lay button but, he's just been matched at 1.98 Shocked


No smoke without fire indeed, didn't back him apart from a few multis which were nrnb anyways and he coming out makes my book look mighty but have to feel sorry for anyone whom had him as their banker of the entire meeting and who was antepost

At least it's not a massively serious injury. 9 weeks rest so will be back raring to go ready for next season (fingers crossed).

It was a good spot STS, very well done. Disappointing that it took 48hrs to be in the public domain though.
While we were talking I put a little lay up to bridge that gap, but it wasn't even nibbled at so after an hour I took it down and followed the money by having a bit on Arctic Fire instead at 11.5.
I don't really like the horse for the race though and so will trade out for a free bet when the market re-opens.
Not too sure what wins it now, I couldn't have AP after her prep and is NC quick enough? Could fall to an outsider.

Step forward The New One....youll have have a better chance lad.

If TNO wins Howdi, there will be no better demonstration of the overall weakness of this generation of 2m hurdlers.
Now, MTOY, I could get behind that one.

I agree pal but lets be honest its a champ hurdle in name only, this year. The shortest price fav ever to miss a race in my 25 years of following the sport

Annie Power will fill the void left by the machine

Douvan currently in talks with Captain Mullins about going for the double.

For what its worth I think ARTIC FIRE should be fav and I think he'll win

providing there's pace in the race, could go a bit of a crawl with no machine.

Alan King if you are reading this.....Have a good think pal young Yarnworth could be worth an entry (as could Min) and before I get lambased...remember Coneygree

* lambasted

Coneygree wasn't supplemented he was entered.

piss off back to twitter :)

Yes but my point they had bollox to run

Two much dodging match ups in recent years lets reverse the trend #growapair

No.  Totally disagree, they should've entered her. They didn't so hard luck in my book.  However my book won't get read.

Breaking News: GRAN DAD HURRICANE FLY SAYS LET ME LOOSE WILLIE AND PUT THEIS LOT AWAY

Im not disagreeing shocky just saying we know the rules - now they should think about an entry or two

chappers bigger up yanworth getting an entry.

Yanworth to the Champion would royally stuff me too.  I feel sick

FFS, noooooo. Not Yanworth.
After the horror show of Ar Mad getting pulled, I don't think I could recover from Yanworth getting pulled from the Neptune.
It's my own fault, I smugly stated around a week ago that so far I had been unaffected by any major upheavals. Despite touching wood and crossing fingers, I should've kept schtum

Mr King currently in with the owners #standby

I know he ran Binocular in Supreme as 4yo but I don't think this is really JPM's MO - he has MTOY and, to a lesser extent, Hargam in the Champion Hurdle with enhanced chances and he soon nipped the idea of More Of That going for the Gold Cup in the bud.

'Course, if MTOY flops on Sat...

For once we are faced with bizzare situation that Champ hurdle could be weakest of all of 'em. Now who fancies a go?

JP has MTOY, I'm hoping that's reason enough not to run.
Yanworth not yet added to the betfair market and AP is, although not entered. I'm hopeful Kingy and JP see sense on this one - what's the rush?

Another one bites the dust! How many more 'good things' before race day?

Got to be mad to run Yanworth in this years champion, he's a chaser all over for starters who looks like a strong stayer! If they thought he was better over 2 miles theey woul be running him in the supreme not the Neptune surely!

impossible123 17 Feb 16 16:36 Joined: 07 Sep 15 | Topic/replies: 335 | Blogger: impossible123's blog

Another one bites the dust! How many more 'good things' before race day?

Douvan please

Yeah mate that's right - we don't want any class at Cheltenham do we? FFS forget your pockets and think about the quality of the racing

WOW just got in and SEEN this! I feel gutted and I'm not on ante post or anything, absolute sickener for those that are.

Feck that am in it to win money not lose it jeez

Douvan is already a 'non-runner' in my book because of Faugheen; if anything untoward happens to either of these three ie Min, Nmh and Dc, I'm doomed, the Festival is over!

STS

Your wish could materialise if Douvan (same ownership as Faugheen) is rerouted to the CH - I believe Douvan was entered in case Faugheen cannot run, and now Faugheen is definitely out Douvan could be supplemented; if so, mayhem in the Arkle ensures.

What a shower of headbangers on here, rerouting Yanworth, Min and now Douvan, the only one ye havent rerouted at this stage is frankel.

Dont always agree with you Mince but have to go along with you here. They probably would have to geld Frankel first. Although the procedure would'nt be lost on a few here - it might bring them back to their senses.

Frankel is allowed to run as no restrictions on entries. Has Mr Abdullah been informed.

Entires. Ffs

I wasnt thinking of the rules on entires Shockster.

๏̯͡๏ ̃๏̯̃๏ ๏̯̃๏

Might just lift the mood....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vkNy6oiE92Q&feature=youtu.be

Stanley James are trying to lighten the mood to! Pricing him up at evens to win the 2017 champion
Hurdle! Rancid c**ts

His owner is clueless.. Chapman finally found the balls to tell him that Faugheen should go chasing and aim for the GC due to his background and loads of stamina and RR dismissed it because Faugheen didn't jumped the hurdles swiftly.. so he'll stay over that discipline ( the pearl of wisdom: https://youtu.be/rKeA5WfZN5Q?t=132 ).. didn't Mullins told him enough times that F doesn't respects the hurdles and putting him over fences makes more sense, he already jumped them in his P2P.. clueless RR I don't know why they bother interviewing him, the man does what Mullins tells him anyway..

speaking of which, if he doesn't win the GC even this year I wonder will he realize his best chance is sending Faugheen chasing or will he let him do the same pony tricks over the same distance over and over again because its easier or will he want to take the hard route and find out if he can win a GC and try to do the double like his father with Dawn Run.. I wonder..

Getting a bit late in the day for that. No chance of him ever jumping a fence competitively now.

You've just seen Faugheen biggest challenger to date. Glad we've got it and hopefully we'll see both in the CH next year!

Mullins says 'Big Possibility' for Faugheen or Annie going GC route: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pu4Nwh0uiPY&feature=youtu.be&t=322 Given that AP is below top class over 3 miles, it makes sense for them to send Faugheen instead, that if he gets back well from injury.

I'd take with a big pinch of salt, why? Faugheen has never jumped a fence in public - presently injured - and Annie Power is just too fragile to begin over fences; I believe Vautour would have more chance of running in the Punchestown Gold Cup later this month and the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup than either Faugheen or Annie Power going the GC route.

I thought it was public knowledge that Faugheen had back trouble and was also given as a possible explanation for his awkward jumping at times.

Was also led to believe that contributed to Vautour being sent over fences instead of him after their novice hurdle wins at the festival in 2014.

Specifically remember Patrick Mullins mentioning this on a podcast a while back.

when a horse has back problems it doesn't matter what he jumps, they will be inconvenienced by the hurdles just as much. I imagine Mullins knows best Faugheen conditions and when he says 'he's a good jumper' and there's a 'big possibility' I think he would mention the supposed back problems. I'm not sure if these weren't invented by RR so he can have an excuse for keeping his horses separated when some interviewers asked about F over fences, namely Matt Chapman in early October last year and the presenter at the Irish awards in December. What excuse will he find now with Annie? Its in his best interest to send Faugheen chasing and as soon as he realizes and tells Mullins this summer the better for his chances to win a CH and GC at next years festival. Otherwise avoiding a clash with AP means he'll send him for the World Hurdle which would be a shame. Decisions decisions...

In the last 2 years Mullins has began to send a lot of his best horses down the chasing route, it makes sense given his lack of success with chasers relative to hurdlers. I'd take his comments with a pinch of salt as he perversely likes to string the public along on occasions. Problem is that both horses are probably at or will be getting past their peak and would likely have to go straight into open company in their novice season for it to be of any benefit. I'd love to see Faugheen over fences but I can't see it happening.

the back problems and past their peaks issues are as influential over hurdles, so given that Faugheen jumped fences before and he tackled staying trips before, the only thing that'll matter if he's capable of going against one of the best staying chaser from at least the last decade in Don Cossack. Vautour was supposed to be going that route 2 years ago and he hasn't even tackled it, its time for the big gun to take over if Mullins wants to have a chance of winning a GC until he's retiring :) The prospect of seeing the best horses around from their disciplines and meet is making me take all of his words with no salt at all so with a bit of imagination we might see it happen who knows.

Trainer Willie Mullins reiterated his desire to run Faugheen in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown in November. The 2015 champion hurdler has been absent since January 2016, but the brilliant nine-year-old is likely to return to the fray this autumn.
Mullins told the Irish Times: "It will probably be the Morgiana. "That's the point we're aiming to start him off in. "We had him fairly fit before he went out so I think he will be fairly forward by the time the Morgiana comes around."

Faugheen has won seven Grade Ones in a dazzling career, but a stress fracture has left him sidelined for 21 months.
His one defeat under Mullins' tutelage came in the 2015 Morgiana Hurdle, when he was defeated half a length by stablemate Nichols Canyon

It looks like he's very much back

He could be running in the Irish Champion Hurdle on Feb 3rd, according to Mullins. If so, a possible chance of getting money lost  perhaps.

No longer has the level required.
Now what?

Prediction - Runs in the Champion Hurdle and immediately after,Retired.

Istabraq job??

Its way too premature to write off Faugheen. By any other horse's standards that run on Saturday was decent enough, and may well have got him placed in a Champion Hurdle.
Fair enough, by his own standards it was a poor run and nothing like what he showed us in November when he looked every bit as classy as in his pre-injury days.
It could well be that he had picked up a virus of sorts and just might be coming back to himself again now. Five weeks is a long time in racing and I wouldn't be in the least surprised if they got him back near his best by then.

Just cannot see it happening.

Hope you are right though.

I have written him off as a viable betting proposition. Couldn't think about putting money on him after last two runs. Way too many unknowns and negatives. Would love to see him have one more day in the sunshine but cant see it happening and definitely would not put my money on it. In my opinion Buveur D'Air is the real deal nowadays and Faugheen at 10 after nearly two years off the track and two poor runs is no match for him. If he gets to Cheltenham he is running for a place at best. My hard nosed non sentimental side says he runs at Cheltenham, gets pulled up and retires. I hope I am wrong. I hope he runs well, takes a place and goes out on his shield and retires.

Agree with FTV here.

Yes, getting beat by a 3 miler was a disappointment, and do I think he'll win the Champion Hurdle - probably note, but I think he is still a long way clear of the rest behind Beveur D'Air - 7/1 nrnb is a fair price imo.

If you look at the betting he has Melon covered, and by association, MTOY.  Looks like Yorkhill, Apples Jade and Min won't run here, as The New One won't, and he has him covered too anyway.

You're then getting down to the Chtibello's of this world and surely a 50% Faugheen can have him.  Wicklow Brave has ability, but is quirky, ran poorly on the flat and then poor in Australia.

I think 7/1 nrnb is ok, just in case anything does happen to Beveur.

wellchief I wouldn't want to put you off a confident selection - just a warning I wouldn't be confident myself that Faugheen has the beating of Melon, quite clear Melon wasn't 100% the other day so couldn't write that one off.

having said that, as always my opinions are based on no factual or inside information whatsoever, purely my own guesswork and speculation - so bet on what you want :)

Very true re Melon lat time out Bigfield; just not really convinced of him anyway.  Last year's Supreme looks nothing special this year with the likes of Melon losing 3 races since, River Wylde and Ballyandy not looking world beaters over fences etc.

His form this year isn't much - the race was there for him at Cheltenham and couldn't beat MTOY or The New One - The New One only scraping home against Chtibello since - the 20/1 about Melon seems about right to me.

He might prove me wrong but I fear he'll be an excuses horse, where people have one after every run.

yep very true about the Supreme form mate, just because it's the supreme doesn't mean the horse(s) will come on to be world beaters a season later.

if he doesn't prove good enough at cheltenham then there can't be excuses (though like you said people always find them when they want to - horse too keen, horse taken too wide, made a couple of blunders, took too keen a hold, dropped too far out etc etc). My thoughts regarding the horse this year have been that he hasn't been 100% throughout and they've been waiting for Cheltenham for him to be fully wound up, but thinking about what you've stated that would go against what Mullins usually does with his potential championship horses the year after their novice campaign, so on reflection you're probably right about him just not being up to championship level :D

Hard to believe I’m posting on this again over 6yrs later (quite a lot has happened in that period!) but got to say I was critical in connections for going over fences with this legend at the age of 11 but like a good oil change, it seems to have fine tuned the machine again! Amazing to win a G1 at 11 let alone a G1 novice chase against a hyped Gigginstown second coming. I would bother backing him for any novice chase at the festival though because if he gets there in good health as a 12yo then surely they’ll go for an open G1, dare I say the Gold Cup. I just hope he gets a long healthy retirement in the future as he’s become one of my all time fav NH horses

Where he goes at Cheletenham is nearly a complete mystery - his trainer cheekily muted The RSA the way he jumped and galloped after beating Samcro; 10 and 23 for The JLT and RSA respectively - way too big for either which might mean neither otherwise 4 and 12.

Let's hope he stays sound, and this his final season.

I have laid him at 33/1 for the 4 miler
should I be worried
regards
Ronnie,

No worries there I think you'll be ok. Mullins will most probably go for a Grade 1 eg JLT, RSA, Ryanair or Gold Cup.

impossible.
thank you might sleep well tonight.
regards
Ronnie.

He's in 3 eg Marsh (JLT), RSA and National Chase. Surely a Grade 1 race - the betting suggest too.

impossible
any news on Laurina
have a nice evening
regards
Ronnie.

'ronnie', Laurina has been entered for two ie Marsh (JLT) and RSA; she's also in the Flogas over 2m 5f on 2nd Feb at Leopardstown.

Impossible
thank you
I lave laid her for the arkle so dinner will taste nice this evening.
regards
Ronnie.

That was astute laying Laurina in The Arkle. She'd be rushed-off her feet against the likes of Notebook and Fakir D'oudaries.

Will this old fogey win today at Leopardstown? I hope so, and Cheltenham too before he bows put; 7/4 each Faugheen and Battleoverdoyen.

The Elliott army looking a bit threadbare this weekend. I know he won two handicaps but no Grade ones yet. Only Delta Work left.

Feb 2, 2020 -- 3:25PM, sageform wrote:

The Elliott army looking a bit threadbare this weekend. I know he won two handicaps but no Grade ones yet. Only Delta Work left.

I am not an expert but doesn’t that count as after timing Irish

Didn't go hard enough on BOD, he looks an out and out stayer and he allowed it to turn into a necessity for a bit of pace from two out, which Faugheen used to get a little in front and then hang on.

any chance he goes for the 4 miler
regards
Ronnie.

I think Mr Mullins has Carefully Selected (CS) in that - he ensured CS was qualified by running in a specific race at Limerick last week. Also, after today 2m 5f he seemed not wanting too much more. He was matched at 75 for the 4 miler, but the markets are reflecting he might not show up at Cheltenham at all, probably Punchestown before retiring.

any updates

have a good day
regards
Ronnie.

Despite winning the Flogas Mr Mullins has been very un-forthcoming despite asked point blank about his next destination. I think it's likely he may skip Cheltenham and saved for either Aintree or Punchestown.