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Cheltenham Festival
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These 1069 comments are related to the topic:
Faugheen
Faugheen
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middle for diddle cv,il be honest i havent a clue what any the novice hurdlers are going for,apart from vatour who looks as though it is supreme bound,i was hoping briar hill was going for supreme,cant get that bumper performance out of my head,settled it in 5 strides !
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Not a bad form boost there at all!!
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Exactly.
Faugheen totally destroyed Josses for pace over 2m on decent ground. His turn of foot when coming off the bridle (he didn't need to come off the bridle, they were just seeing what they had) is unreal. Off a fast pace 2m, nothing would live with him, sadly we ain't going to see it I feel. |
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Yes one of the trees Duffy referred to a few days back!
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Curses, I thought that wasn't far enough back
...however, there were some hurdles in the way.....and it will go a bit more way to nestling faugheen into that overly short going into the festival...with all his supporters getting carried away with him. |
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No idea where this horse will run, some people are making a case for the Supreme after Josses Hill nearly won the Tolworth today, but for me comparing bumper form with hurdle form is like comparing chalk with cheese. Anyway, i've taken 9/2 at Billies to win any race at the festival, reason being he looks like lining up in March with more experience than originally anticipated.
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Your confusion is well founded sint. I have posted a couple of times (tongue in cheek) that I'm not convinced that Faugheen isn't their Supreme horse. Well, he could easily be.
Part of the answer lies in yard politics, especially where Briar Hill ends up. I've long ignored anything WPM says in public but the truth may well be that even he hasn't made his mind up. I backed 5 of Mullins' novices in the Billy's 'win any race' market in November and haven't had a AP bet since. |
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It would be a fairly big ask to have a horse running at up to 3m and then drop him back to 2m at the festival. Im on for Neptune and am most concerned he'd end up in the SNH over AB, but can you really see that happening?
Also, as BJG pointed out on the Vautour thread, Vautour's race today ties his form with The Tullow Tank so it wasn't that bad |
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Could Vautour end up in the Neptune?
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Possibly. It's most likely Vautour SNH, Faugheen Neptune, BH AB, but all 3 end up in different races!!
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Willie just said he didn't know where to take him as a Cheltenham preparation because he wasn't familiar with the English programme book.
All we are trying to do is keep him apart, healthy and sound, and would be looking to give everything a run before Cheltenham. They need racing experience in big fields , going off at a pace. |
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The more i've watched Faugheen's races back, the more he reminds me of Simonsig in his novice hurdle year. I backed him to win the Supreme Ante Post that year & was gutted when Hendo went down the Neptune route - but in reality he'd have won either race that yr.
I genuinly believe Faugheen will win either the Supreme or Neptune this year but as per my original post i'm on at 20/1 for Neptune & topped up at 14/1 for any race so would like to see him go that way. He's not a 3 miler IMO - too much speed Watching the Vautor race today, i was fairly impressed with the way he battled & think if Ruby gives him a Champagne Fever style ride in the Supreme he could go close. I wouldn't rule out Moyle Park just yet either - very similar profile to CF last year. Briar Hill - Albert Bartlett 99.9% i'd say Irving is most interesting novice this side of sea so far for me |
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If betfair is anything to go by then it's looking more and more like the Neptune. Very interested to see where he turns up next and hope there's some decent opposition. I'd rather he had a proper race than a canter round against vastly inferior opposition
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WM's best novice always runs in the Neptune, and FAUGHEEN would appear to be that horse this year - approaching machine status, and one more Graded prep win would see him 2/1 or less SP with the Irish Money levering down the odds at the start of Day 2. Along with Un De Sceaux, Faugheen has been my favourite AP bet for the Festival since May.
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Only won the Neptune twice...Champagne Fever was his best novice last year when he won Supreme with The New One laughing at the hot fav Pont Alexandre in the Neptune...Boston Bob his best novice hurdler got taken out in the 3 miler the year before...So Young done over at 2-1 in the Neptune...so lets not get carried away here. May look on paper that he is his best novice and certainly one I've got on my side but being run over 2m 6f and 3m says to me Albert Bartlett
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Agree re WPM horses being too short when the Irish 'banker'. Ignore his run over 3m - they said afterwards they took a chance at the trip and grade simply to get a run into him. If anything that race proved he's better over shorter and his hurdling was far better when over 2.4m going left handed and a bit quicker.
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I like the fact that even when he does make a mistake he is back on the bridal within a stride. learning all the time... if he wins the deloitte as he has won every time this season 6-1 will look huge
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only 5-1 top price now...gambled today from somewhere
i haven't got a vested interest, so wish you neptune backers well... there has been 8 pages written so far about him, so you would hope he could win!! |
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Bally you say WM has only
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Think there's only been so much written HC due to the fact that he could go for Neptune or AB and Mullins hasn't said a word about next race / targets etc. Mainly everyone guessing and wondering what others think.
Zero money waiting to back Briar Hill for Neptune which is quite significant as well |
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..... won the Neptune twice. Only twice in the last six years though. Since its inception only Twister has won it more than twice and as far I would be concerned WM is still counting!
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ye defo positive signs he is leaning towards neptune and briar hill very weak on here
can't say i will be getting involved till his next start and by then he will probably be an under price if winning, so might not carry any money from me lots of cards still to be played out but target looking like neptune if the betting is to be believed but can't say i trust willie as champagne proved last year, with a late switch but looks good all the same does he definitely take in the deloitte can't say i had read anything?? |
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And Twister has stopped counting has he Arkle?
Trying to work out where Mullins is going to put his novices 8 weeks before the Festival is a mugs game. Now, don't get me wrong, I like Faugheen and have backed him at 11.5 for Neptune and 8-1 Albert Bartlett but I wrote a few weeks back that there is just too much hype over this horse at present and this is backed up by Harry above. The way some people are going on it's as if he ran 50 seconds over course standard has already passed the post in the Neptune when he might not even run in the race. He has not beat much over hurdles and his hurdling has not been the best. "Far from fluent at times" when you have your own way up front in a Limerick 3 miler last time out concerns me a little. Yes, constantly hear about the beating of Josses Hill by 22 lengths but that was in a Bumper. The horse needs to go and win well against decent opposition next month over a trip similar to the Neptune for the current price to be justifiable. I personally hope he does because I'm on him but feel there are some that are getting too carried away too soon. |
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Dunno what happened with my cut n paste there so try again lol...
Trying to work out where Mullins is going to put his novices 8 weeks before the Festival is a mugs game. Now, don't get me wrong, I like Faugheen and have backed him at 11.5 for Neptune and 8-1 Albert Bartlett but I wrote a few weeks back that there is just too much hype over this horse at present and this is backed up by Harry above. The way some people are going on it's as if he has already won the Neptune when he might not even run in the race. He has not beat much over hurdles and his hurdling has not been the best. "Far from fluent at times" when you have your own way up front in a Limerick 3 miler last time out 50 secs past the course standard concerns me a little. Yes, constantly hear about the beating of Josses Hill by 22 lengths but that was in a Bumper. The horse needs to go and win well against decent opposition next month over a trip similar to the Neptune for the current price to be justifiable. I personally hope he does because I'm on him but feel there are some that are getting too carried away too soon. |
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I don think anyone has been hyping in the manner of saying 'he's gonna win, he's the best thing since sliced bread etc'. Most have simply been saying he looks pretty damn good and wondering where he'll end up.
His price is now very short on what he's achieved but it's not as crazy as Ballycasey's price for the RSA IMO |
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Sorry I thought I just read "approaching machine status" by one only recently...
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Well, maybe one or two have
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Don't know whose money it is supporting Faugheen but the one thing that you can be pretty sure about is that it doesn't belong to the people that will make the decision as to which race he goes for. I suspect WPM and Ricci don't bet very much (if at all) and certainly not in championship races at the Festival. They will know better than anyone that it is fraught with risk and the truth is, they don't need to.
Willie will assess what he has fit and well the week before (might be no yard politics involved if something is injured) and the likely state of the ground. Whatever he says beforehand can be taken with a half pound of Saxo! |
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I'm sure Ricci does bet. Maybe not ante-post but again I would not be surprised. He is worth millions but still goes out into shops and buys a few hundred £££'s worth of lotto tickets when the jackpot is crazy like £100m. He may take the same view about some of his horses ante-post. Odds too big etc.
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For those interested, he's still 4/1 to win any race with Billy's this morning. Best prices now 25/1 Supreme, 5/1 Neptune, 8/1 Bartlett. I think the AP markets generally are shot now for backers of the most fancied horses but if I was desperate to get on, I know which option I'd take and suspect it won't last long.
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Well the money is coming from somewhere and it hasn't stopped. Interesting piece in The Tullow Tank this morning - would lead me to think supreme is more likely than Neptune. Happy with that as a) quite fancy him for the supreme and b) he would be one of the main dangers in the Neptune should Faugheen line up
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On here there was only around 300 to get Faugheen from 9s to 6s.
Again, 8 weeks to go and The Tullow Tank is going 2m 2f next time out. He is a Neptune dream for me and the value bet of the festival NRFB as we speak. Won two Grade Ones already. |
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Agree The Tullow Tank is value bet for either SNH or Neptune at the moment - I've been really impressed with him.
Just think the SNH will suit better - true run, fast paced 2m will suit him perfectly. Might look in trouble coming round the bend but he'll absolutely power up that hill. For the Neptune he'd miss a decent trend as 9/10 winners have won over 2.4 or further |
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with regards the price, wouldn't the mullins stable want the stable staff to get on etc
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If Mullins doesnt know in his mind(forgot the nonsense "interviews" he gives) what race the horse is going for 8 weeks away I'd suggest a new profession
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Faugheen is a horse I’ve been very taken with on all his starts. He appears to have plenty of gears and no lack of stamina and he could easily run in any of the novice hurdles. But I think his target has always been the Neptune, the race where you need both speed and stamina to win. People will point to Pont Alexandre as last year’s hot pot for the same connections only finishing 3rd in the Neptune. But I’ve heard from a couple of separate people that the horse badly sweat up on the day and didn’t seem right. Ruby couldn’t make use of him out in front like he wanted to, hence the rather sedate pace, the horse hasn’t been seen since due to problems and then injury so I’m happy to ignore the inevitable comparisons. Faugheen has had the most glowing reports of all the Mullins novices and is a very exciting horse.
I’m also very keen on Faugheen by simple fact of where are the rivals? It looks a race seriously lacking any strength in depth. Apache Stronghold has had setback after setback since he won in Navan in November and may be going straight to the festival, a big negative in my opinion. The Tullow Tank has option of Supreme or Neptune and I’d expect him to face off with Faugheen in the Deloitte next month, if he is beaten there I’m sure they’ll try avoid Faugheen in the Neptune and aim him at the very open Supreme. Briar Hill won’t face Faugheen and on breeding he’s a strong stayer, same sire as Morning Assembly among others who are out and out stayers. Aided by his lazy running style where he only does enough to win he looks tailor made for the 3 mile race. Deputy Dan’s trainer said he’d go for the 3 mile race but if the ground was testing he’d go for the Neptune. It’s rare we see any testing ground at Cheltenham so he looks an unlikely runner. Red Sherlock has had two facile wins at odds on and it’s unknown as to his quality. At this stage he looks the be the pick of the English horses as he is unexposed and was an expensive purchase. Royal Boy showed some tenacity to get the better of Josses Hill, but the latter was beaten 22l by Faugheen in a bumper so you’d not be too worried about the merits of that Tolworth win in relation to this race. So it's a horse who I'd imagine will go off less than 2/1 for this race meaning there is juice in the 5/1 available, especially as VC are top price and have non runner free bet concession. 3pts win Faugheen @ 5/1 It's also now that I'd also place an antepost accumulator on Hurricane Fly, Faugheen and one of the constants of the Cheltenham Festival Quevega 1pt win Acca @ 51/1 - VC http://jumpsadvisor.com/cheltenham-thoughts.html |
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Clondaw court heading for the Albert Bartlett and with ricci having Vautour for the supreme, it has to be the Neptune now for Faugheen
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Was it not said that Vautour might be stepped up in trip after his run Saturday??
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i doubt you will even see clondaw court at cheltenham tbh...been a hard horse to train by the look of it...
i'd be surprised he went with so little experience and especially the toughest novice race of the week |
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Mullins said Clondaw Court would go straight to the Albert Bartlett after his win today. I put the horse up at 33/1 yesterday for the race and am very happy with his run today. As mullins said they were sure he was their best bumper horse last season but he never made Cheltenham. Looks tailor made for Albert Bartlett
Faugheen for Neptune as was always the plan. He's got the combination of speed and stamina for it. |