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Cheltenham Festival
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Faugheen
Faugheen
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Almost everyone agrees that the price is much too short and yet the bookies have left this horse largely unchanged at a best priced 5/4. Is it pure cowardice on their behalf because of the hype or does Faugheen really merit being so short given the strength of his rivals? Most people on here are likely talking through their pocket and their opinions will be guided by this. My own take on it is that Faugheen faces his first real test as a 2 mile hurdler and at the price I couldn't justify backing him. There are better examples of much better 5/4 shots practically every day of the week. That said you have to respect the market which in a race as high profile as the CH should ordinarily represent his true chances of winning, with one important caveat. And that is the number of hotpots that Mullins saddles up on day one. If the race was run in isolation I don't think you would see Faugheen so short in the market. I'm fairly sure that if Douvan and UDS for instance win their races preceding the CH then Faugheen may well go off odds on. On the other hand if either or both are beaten I'd expect him to drift in the market to represent a truer price independent of the other races. Anyone hoping for closer to 7/4 on the day (specifically before racing) will be disappointed imo as the bookmakers are frightened of a Mullins bloodbath on day one.
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"Almost everyone agrees that the price is much too short and yet the bookies have left this horse largely unchanged at a best priced 5/4. Is it pure cowardice on their behalf because of the hype or does Faugheen really merit being so short given the strength of his rivals?"
The turnover now is pittance compared to the day itself so no point in offering extended prices now. The bookies are quite happy to leave him at 5/4 until the big money comes. I'd be very surprised if you could not get 7/4 with one of the bookies on the day. Definitely lots of 6/4 going to be around. imo. |
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"Faugheen is "spectacular" and "probably better than Istabraq" (which raised some murmurs). 5/4 looking very tempting." https://twitter.com/Timeform1948/status/572843859564228610
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anyone who thinks 5/4 is tempting needs their bumps feeling.
When you will get 7/4 plus before the race. |
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think rich ricci has 4 horses that he thinks can win four big races,and when grouped together can return a tidy sum of money,
the four are douvan,Annie,faugheen,champagne fever,and he also adds djacadam for the Canadian bet,so its not surprising that the books are holding the prices at the moment,because you can be sure the irish at Cheltenham will get stuck into them. |
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Bookies aren't charities and if you think they're so plain stupid to make him back to what he was before the Boxing day you'll be dead wrong. Of course offers of limited stakes(10 quids) you'll see those no doubt but those are irrelevant to them only attract new customers.
5/4 looks decent for what most of his followers seen of him and his competition until now, if he also improves than it will loook like a no brainer afterwards. I have a feeling that most will wait till the morning, the price will be odds on and will back him at even shorter odds than now. You either think he has a bigger winning chance than 5/4, or you don't think he has that many chances and you'll never back him, even if its 2/1 or 9/2 so whats the point of complaining when the lay button has enough liquidity. |
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I don't think I will be having a bet on the race, but I think Faugheen's price of 5/4 is right. He realistically has two opponents Jezki and The New One neither have covered themselves in too much glory this season. Hurricane Fly doesn't run to his best here and its possible that Arctic Fire may get a place.
If you are happy to smash into horses at these prices then Faugheen looks as good as it gets |
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When I started working in a bookies shop many many years ago one of my first jobs was to sweep the floor after racing.
I was amazed to see so many crumpled up losing copies of bets lying on the floor.so I said to my boss "a lot of losing dockets on the floor boss" And he replied with a grin"yes, and they were all racing certainties three hours ago"  |
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Timtin if you think Faugheen will be odds on, on the morning of the race they you dont understand betting imo.
That will mean The New One and Jetski will need to be pushed out and @ 1/4 odds a place would be a nightmare for the layers. Annie Power was trading around 11/8 ante post (MUllins certainty winning in hack canter beating nothin of note including Coral Hurdle .Who does that remind you of?) 9/4 on morning of race was available to good money. I will be amazed if yer canna get 7/4....15/8 on early morning prices to good money. |
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I would be amazed if 7/4 or 15/8 is available on the morning of the race for good money. I wouldn't be surprised to see price rushes to restricted stakes or offers to attract new customers, but offering close to 2/1 to good money will not happen imo. If and when Ruby Walsh announces that he will ride Faugheen, the bookies PR reps will have another reason for maintaining the skinny price or even shortening. The only way I can see those prices become available on the day is if one or both of UDS or Douvan get turned over in the preceding races.
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He's already priced up on the assumption that ruby rides. If ruby opts for the fly, unlikely I know but not impossible, then Faugheen will be closer to 3s
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Think in fact i fully expect there to be some surprised faces on here in 6 days time
I fully expect to see at least 7/4 morning of the 10th March at least some where, prob billies, maybe lads but more than likely sid james who sponsor the race and were miles shorter than anyone else all winter! Been saying it since his Xmas hdl win still saying it now. Them saying he will be odds on dont have a clue about betting and overrounds. For him to even be touching 10/11 the layers would have to make TNO 10/3 min and Jezki a 4-9/2 chance, at 1/4 odds the offices will be crying up and down the country and will shorten tno and jezki up not to mention fly and AF, this will invariably get Faugheen out to a 5/4 sp on a 108-110% overround if 8 run! Another reason why Faugheen will be available at close to 2/1! Best book on oddschecker Tues morning i suspect will be approx 101-102%  |
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So basically what your saying is that it is due to the fact that there are 8 or more runners as to why Faugheen's price will drift. What if there are less than 8 runners?
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Faugheen will drift in price if any of the mullins horses lost in the first two races,but if both win than we will have a different story.
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I don't think either of the 1st two will win, but I do fancy Faugheen to win.
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I'm so clueless that Faugheen price just got hammered evens with most firms and 11/10 with some, only 5/4 with PP who most punters can't place bets with anyways... good luck if you're a trader on CH market, I know you expect to secure a profit but you better get out now... don't worry there's still hope if Ruby will ride Fly you'll have a shot to get a guaranteed profit when Faugheen drifts into 2.6-2.7 but I wouldn't bet on it if I were you there are plenty other markets and if Ruby confirms the ride you'll be on a guaranteed lose as the price will steam into 2.1-2.2, get out when you still can
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timtin • March 4, 2015 2:18 PM GMT
I'm so clueless that Faugheen price just got hammered evens with most firms and 11/10 with some, only 5/4 with PP who most punters can't place bets with anyways. This is classic bookmaker tactics.How do you take more mug money @ the wrong price. Shorten it |
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The bookies have now used the declarations to cut the prices further, the confirmation of Ruby Walsh as jockey will give them another excuse to shorten Faugheen. This horse won't be trading much bigger than 5/4 on the day, talk of 7/4-2/1 is off the mark.
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I'm coming to the conclusion Faugheen is either a bad win bet or place LAY!
He will either win or come nowhere.  |
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Have to agree - new custom is one thing, but only to small stakes - getting stuffed by big punters backing a gift horse is another. They are beginning to run scared now the rolling stone is gathering momentum. Haven't heard anyone tipping up anything else for the last few days - except Nigel Twiston Davies. We even have Nicholls and Henderson placing their charity bets on Faugheen now! I think he will win and by Wednesday morning even the biggest TNO fans will be able to spell... Faugheen!
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Australia certainty for Derby evens/11/10 ante post in run up to Derby.
9/4 on morning of race to good money. The high street gang want you in their shops on festival opening day at evens 11/10 anyone with 1/2 a brain wont even get out of bed for that. But then again........................................................................................................................ |
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"This is classic bookmaker tactics.How do you take more mug money @ the wrong price. Shorten it "
Jesus, first you call me clueless cause I said Faugheen is more likely to shorten than get bigger, now when I'm slightly proven right you you call me mug as I'm for a horse which price is so big because of the circumstances of Mullins keeping him apart from Fly in the Irish scene and TNO being kept apart from the most prestigious hurdle race in the early part of the NH season. If he had met any of those 3 and most likely beat them his price now would really be unbackable. Currently he's decent price because he meets them ALL 3 in the same event so if he's as good as he shown till now then will take this easily. |
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The Australia analogy does not mean that Faugheen will do similar. There may be gimmicky promotions on the price to small stakes but I'd be amazed if we see a similar drift. You have stated earlier that the price on Faugheen will get a lot bigger because of the each way terms on the other horses. Now that there are 8 horses confirmed for the race nothing much has changed in price terms, if anything there has been another shortening by a few. Anyone waiting for a bigger price on Faugheen is also taking the chance that there are no no runners (thus reducing the field to 7 or less), no adverse stories about other horses and other unforeseen factors. If you fancy the horse now you could be best taking the 5/4 now NRNB when you can get it.
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lol timtin, very funny pal
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Ming_the_Merciless 04 Mar 15 14:43 Joined: 22 May 09 | Topic/replies: 2,929 | Blogger: Ming_the_Merciless's blog
I'm coming to the conclusion Faugheen is either a bad win bet or place LAY! He will either win or come nowhere. Said this very thing myself a few times over the last couple weeks, got shot down the first time but i think this could well be the case even more so now. As for the pretenders thinking that the bookies wont throw out some too good to be true offers morning of the festival, the biggest and strongest betting jungles in the world is absolutely clueless about betting and needs to stop!!! Faugheen is sure to be included in at least one of them offers, if he isn't then i will be surprised!!! |
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When you have the fastest ever Champion Hurdler Jezki(Istabraq eat your heart out) trading @ 5/1 likely to met exactly same conditions as last year with Kitten Rock as a pacemaker and Faugheen trading @11/10 5/4 in a place .
Ask yourself which is likely to shorten and which is likely to drift If you come down on the side of Faugheen . Good Luck and thanx. |
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Agree geoff. Jezki never gets the credit he deserves, probably because he doesn't always turn up until cheltenham. He ran a very good race last year, but some folk always pick holes in the form. I'd rather have saw bg on the horse because of how handled the horse last year. If faugheen doesn't win, jezki will.
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good luck @Geoff, but I have a feeling we're following different sports, horse racing is not about overall times, not over flat and certainly not over jumps. Good luck as well with Jezki he was a good price last year based on his form till then, but now he's too short for what he achieved on form(worse than last year), hopefully he returns to his best on better ground but @ 5/1 its not worth the risk
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Surely your not trying to compare Jezki with Istabraq? Remains to be seen if he is as good as he was last season as he has only run against one horse of note all winter and has yet to win this season. You can pick holes in them all to varying degrees but I don't think 5/1 Jezki is any value no more than 5/4 is about Faugheen.
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Listening to Preview Night from Leopardstown on RTE2FM radio right now w/ Ted Walsh, Gordon Elliot, Davy Russell and that guy from Boyles. They all think Faugheens price is crazy and that of all of WPMs runners on Tuesday he's the most likely to get beat. They think Jezki is the best bet at the prices. GL
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Most people seem to think his price is crazy and yet it has held firm at around evens for weeks on end with no sign of drifting. The PR guy from Spoilsports (presumably Blanche) saying it is a crazy price yet representing a firm that is joint worst price on the horse is laughable.
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"The PR guy from Spoilsports (presumably Blanche) saying it is a crazy price yet representing a firm that is joint worst price on the horse is laughable."
Yes it was him and no it didn't say anything while they were discussing his "crazy" price. My bad. He did say he would give an enhanced price of 15/1 on the 4 WPM hotpots winning on the Tuesday. Thought Ted was going to have a heart attack.  |
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@maelduin Is there a podcast of that show available anywhere?
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Not sure. It was on at 7pm today. Definitely worth a listen if you can find it. .
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"Listening to Preview Night from Leopardstown on RTE2FM radio right now w/ Ted Walsh, Gordon Elliot, Davy Russell and that guy from Boyles. They all think Faugheens price is crazy and that of all of WPMs runners on Tuesday he's the most likely to get beat. They think Jezki is the best bet at the prices. GL"
is this the one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_gp-xUNTCs ? Because the only references to Faugheen price were: Boyles Guy: "We're going push him out tonight to 5/4" => reality: still evens price as we speak. Boyles Guy: "Its whether you're a favourite backer and want to take 5/4 Faugheen that's the big question you got to answer"; at the end he again makes the point: "Its your own decision if you want to back a horse at 5/4" => the question is why would a bookie give us advices against backing a horse ? Ted Walsh: "I think its a better price 5/4 than UDS is at 4/7" Gordon & Davy: didn't mentioned anything about his price... And only Davy mentioned Jezki in this context: - "If the ground comes soft it would increase HF chance, it would decrease Jezki's and TNO's and it wouldn't make any difference to Faugheen" - "Faugheen jumping mistakes doesn't seem to slow him down but the only worry I'd have is if he'd done it in the middle part of the race too many times that one horse who could exploit that could be Jezki" |
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Then here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5AB9JAXp0w the Boyles guy after offering 15/1 for all 4 to come in on the first day, he again emphasizes that Faugheen is not placed in a lot of trebles and a guy from the audience says to him that Faugheen is the probably the one he fancies the most and Boyles immediately changes the subject and starts to talk highly of Douvan and how Mullins said "he was the best he brought to the festival" while Ted said that they've already seen "the second coming of Christ last week in Alisio Ville" and he doesn't believes in those hypes
the rest of the panel started to pick off Douvan races with Davy making an excellent point about his shady form which is similar to a 20/1 shot and Liam also made a good point about Lami Serge who ran to very high rating 139 and if he rans to that on Tuesday than Douvan would have to improve a lot similar to what Vautour did last year in around 150+ mark. Basically they all took a shot at Douvan, except the bookie representative, while they neither mentioned Faugheen price at all. It takes a lot proof to debunk a single false statement but there you go, thanks @maelduin... |
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He will win.
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Would have absolutely loved to have UDS in the CHurdle this season,and last for that matter.
Personally think he's the best 2m hurdler full stop. Don't think any of em would get to him. Think Mullins and Walsh know it as well. |
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Still,injury free and barring accidents,he wins Arkle and any numbe of Champion chases.
Guess that's ok for owners!! |
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We both know they missed the boat last year with UDS.
Faugheen this year to me is not IF but BY HOW FAR. |