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I think judorick is talking the sense here. The juice has got to be worth the squeeze. Why take 3-1 on about a 3-1 shot at this stage when you may be able to find 10-1 about what should be a 6-1 shot?
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fair enough ^^^ but where the feck is this 10-1 about a 6-1 shot? and how do u know Bob isn't an evens about a 3-1 shot very strange post imo
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@judorick, I can understand that don't think 3/1 is a great price and I am in two minds about it, but highly unlikely that someone will run in the next four weeks and dislodge bobs worth as favourite. There's only the betfair chase during that time to consider, not like SDC will be able to enhance his GC chances that much running against small fields in Ireland.
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I think he will be fav for some time,probably till the race itself,but the price I just don't see shortening enough for 3 to be value in October.
He had one run before march last season beating Tidal Bay receiving weight and a repeat of that campaign wont be enough to shorten that much.Maybe they will campaign him differently this season and give him a couple of runs(another unknown for the mix),but as ive said before he aint a horse that wows with his performances,gets the job done yes,but not imo in a way that gets people rushing to take that sort of price. He has credible opposition in SConti and SDC from last years race,and has enough up and comers to make any wager at 3 a tad worrying - Al Ferof,Cue Card have to prove they stay of course and AF is coming back from injury as well,but they are 2 to be wary of,and we have novices improving from last season that could be anything!! Then we have injury setbacks that may occur,bad weather that could interfere with preperations etc etc. All in all I still cannot believe some think 3 is value right now!!! |
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an example ,if i remember rightly big bucks in the world hurdle a few years back ,was a very similar price to what he was ante post 3 months before the race ,bobs worthy may shorten but i dont think it will be by as much to justify the risk . but one mans water is another mans wine as they say !good luck .
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I actually think the price is perfectly fine given his record but once you get to this low price level antepost it surely makes sense to wait until the day or at least wait until nrnb.
It would take an extreme set of results and/or injuries to rivals during the season for him to go off any shorter than 6/4. |
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amazes me how many times I see people talk only about the reward side of the equation in punting and very little about the risk
that is what it comes down to most of the time I rarely bet below 5/1 in any race on the day let alone 4+ months in advance so 3/1 is just of no interest at all |
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I'm not sure about that uncle
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I think it's a fair price.. SDS will take time to get going so his price will drift then there will be value in him after his first two runs, SC will drift after his first run because Paul Nichols can't get his string winning first time out, LR will place in the King George so he'll probably stay where he is, First Lieutenant will win a race or two so he'll probably shorten up but will be running in the wrong race again, Dynaste won't even turn up and who ever thinks Harry Topper is good enough to win needs to wake up. With all this going on BW will win a trial shorten up to 2s and then be 6/4 on the day as soon as Nicky Henderson opens up and says how wonderful he is and just behind him in his shadow Mick Fitz will echo all this like he always does
Pull your tongue out of my a... hole Gary. Dogs do that. You're not a dog, are ya Gary? |
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If you were a layer, I can't see you wanting to be any bigger. So in that sense it's a fair price. But from a backers point if view, as a few have said, it's just it an attractive option this far out. Will probably win and is definitely my main fancy, but no interest at the price this far out.
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Was an easy winner in the end last year but can't help feeling he was less inconvenienced by the cut in the ground than SDS, and even though I backed BW last year, I think on better ground SDS will be a hell of a lot closer. Of course, no reason why the ground won't be the same again this year.
Can't see anyone coming from left field, although obviously if you could see them they wouldn't be left-field. Don' think any of the RSA lot are upto much. Maybe Benefficient could be one to break up last year's lot? |