Cheltenham Festival
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23 Oct 13
23:16
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Date Joined:
12 Jun 05
I guess most will say 3-1 is NO value and I can see your point but when having ante post bets at Chelt ive been happy to take the long view on favs that imo fully deserve to be short, the likes of Istabraq, Denman, Hurricane fly, Sprinter sacre etc . To my eye this little battler is by a long way the most likely winner. Should improve again from last season, will clearly be targeted for the GC, stays, jumps, handles all ground, has the No1 jockey imo and most of all relishs that hill. A 3 time festval winner who is an unbeaten 5 from 5 at the track. After watching his GC win earlier the 7L could have been 20 L in another furlong. A huge engine, huge heart and just the type I will keep chipping anyway at on here week in, week out till march. Finally I also believe he hasn't yet had the credit he deserves as he s not a kauto Star in the way he travels mid race.
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could easily be bigger on the day and can't realistically go off much shorter, plenty could change yet
so why take the risk unless you get nrnb or nrfb |
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5/2 nrfb available.
but as judo says,will he be shorter on the day?? |
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Add in the fact that apart from Best Mate, no horse has won back to back Gold cups for over 40 years. Wait for the day is sound advice.
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I have backed him and take the view that he will be a short price come the big day.I don't think LR SC or SDC can beat Bobs at Cheltenham.Al ferof and Cue Card could be threats tho
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I'm all for getting Ante Post bets on and remember backing Best Mate at 7-2 straight after hed won his first GC. I think 3-1 at this stage on Bob's Worth is poor .
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the thing is he could easily miss the race, many do, and it could easily be a much deeper race than last year with
Al Ferof, Cue Card, Silviniaco, Harry Topper and others possible contenders meaning he will still be 3/1 on the day Kauto Star went off 7/4 when he had a weaker field than BW will face If you want to have the big bet, just save the money in a savings pot and have it on on the day without the risk of losing the stake before the race |
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To be fair the field could easily thin as much as it could get competitive. Silviniaco i thought was very unlucky, Al ferof we will wait and see but without these two its no stronger a GC than in previous years.
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I have backed him and think he will b much shorter on the day
Only 2 that can beat him in my book (SC and SDC)- will never know where SC would av come last year but SDC was well held and i think personally SC would av been too Cue Card the only outsider i could consider but i just dont think he'll run in the GC - can reassess if he wins the KG or summit all about opinions innit  |
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such are the physical demands of the gold cup repeat winners are quite rare ,i am no stats man but if i remember rightly even placed horses have not got a great record of winning it the following year,ill let the stats boys correct me if i am wrong , bobs worth seems to do things the hard way i.e grinding it out ,he has had a few battles and could be vulnerable to an improver or he may have more to offer and buck the trend . is 3/1 value? to be honest i dont think he will be much shorter on the day and a narrow defeat on his debut or one of the trials and he may well drift out a touch ,he doesent win his races impressivley on the bridle, more workmanlike than flashily so cant see him shortening too much.
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I gives the visual impression of a grinder but he really isn't, he ultimately finishes his races off looking fresh and looking as if he could go even further quite happily.
I agree that things could go wrong with him physically, but I wouldn't be not backing him now on the strength of the opposition. |
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Surprised some on here think hes value to be honest.Yes,i agree at this stage hes the most likely winner,but we are in October and not one of the contenders has been seen yet.
Hes not a fashionable horse that will get backed and backed,and at 3/1 that's even less likely. Putting the money in a savings account and going in on the day is sensible if you really fancy him,he wont be much different price on the day,and if things go wrong with him for whatever reason then no harm done financially. No brainer imo. |
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Can't see any one coming out of the clouds it may be that 3-1 is very fair but the records books suggest it is horribly short.
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Putting the money in a savings account and going in on the day is sensible if you really fancy him,he wont be much different price on the day,and if things go wrong with him for whatever reason then no harm done financially.
You can't know that he won't be much shorter on the day....he could easily hose up somewhere, rivals thin and end up money on. |
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Well of course I don't know for sure Howdi.Next time I will put imo........picky git
 He aint the sort that hoses up mate,not IMO!!!! And I will be amazed if the rivals on the day do not keep him around his current price at least. |
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and then scope badly 3 days before and be scratched
it's all about risk vs reward, for me having money tied up from October with the risk of losing it if the horse is a non runner is no value at all at 3/1 when there are complete unknowns in the mix what happens to the price if he gets beat in the Betfair? Or if Al Ferof pisses up in the KG or any number of other things like Harry Topper winning the Charlie Hall by 10 lengths that could possibly happen anyway, not recommended imo, lump on on the day if you think it's unbeatable, won't go off less than 5/2 in all probability |
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I agree him getting injured is my main worry.
He has only had six chase starts,so if you want an improver look no further than BW |
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know kauto did it but anyone got stats for previously placed horses going for a win in the gold cup! tanks in advance!
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buddeliea • October 24, 2013 5:44 PM BST
Well of course I don't know for sure Howdi.Next time I will put imo........picky gitLaugh He aint the sort that hoses up mate,not IMO!!!! And I will be amazed if the rivals on the day do not keep him around his current price at least. Not often I disagree with the great man but this is utter guess work and he had a pot shot at my quiz in the summer so I'm getting my own back. |
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hope you are well mate - looking forward to the real stuff now. Went to Cheltenham last Friday but the card was awful on the Friday and I'm no fan of their Showcase meeting.
ps/ Anyone know if Simonsig is going for the Paddy Power. |
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Yeh, fine mate, going to Cheltenham for the Bula in December,and first meeting of the season for me will be Ascot on the 22nd and 23rd.
No idea about Simonsig my friend, I have an opinion though ,don't think he will run. |
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Cheers Budd.
For thoise thinking about Bobs Worth at 3-1. Simonsig was 3-1 for the Arkle las year same time and ended up with little competition and basically just having to hold his form. |
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but that ain't gonna happen in the Gold Cup, there will be plenty of opposition unlike the Arkle where there were few viable candidates at this stage
the difference in the GC is there are plenty of dark ones that might emerge and last season's staying Novices are yet to be tested to make the risk of ante post rules worth taking the 3/1 then I would have to be sure that he would not be available at bigger than 7/4 when it goes NRNB plus there will be all kinds of offers like money back if you are second to X, or free bet if you are on a faller and all that malarkey 3/1 no value at all under A/P rules imo |
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it might happen in the gold cup jud he may only have to hold his form to win gain comfortably pal.
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where are these dark ones last years novices look **** to me
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the winning comfortably is not the issue now is it? it's the variation in price vs risk of not getting a run + unknown level of opposition
yes, they may look rubbish, does not mean there isn't one that improves 30lb this year |
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and BW may well not have won if SC stood up, the line through Long Run makes it very tight between them
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agreed but not many of them apart from SC can claim a legit excuse
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weres dem statz?....................anyone ............pleeze!
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what statz?
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the ones about how previous placed gold cup runners perform in future gold cups ! i know about kauto but have any placed runners won the next season ? or season after
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off the top of my head I believe only two horses that placed in the previous season's Gold Cup went on to win the next year in about 30+ years
Kauto Star and The Fellow iirc that is, it's very difficult to do but See More Business was unplaced then won it the next year so I would be more hopeful for SC than SDC and LR |
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the fellow didn't win the gold cup did he?
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sorry he did 94 lost it for a minute
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Looks clearly the most likely winner to me at this stage but it's a long time until March and I certainly don't think 3-1 is anything to get worked up about.
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I agree he is the most likely winner at this stage but as not one of the trials has been run that is not saying much when you are talking 3/1
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Bregawn won it the year after being runner up.
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depends how you asses value! some might see 3/1 about the addmitedley likeliest winner at this time,but the risk outweighs the reward imo !
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and imo!
someone else could be the most likely winner in as little as 4 weeks with another 3+ months to go |