GRANDOUET ARKLE

hotting up now roll on Saturday first big race.

Entered in the  novice chase on Haldon Gold Cup day. Anyone know if it's running?

Really hope he does. I'd rather he ran ASAP 2 get a run/experience into him while the ground is still relatively decent instead of running him later on potentially soft/heavy.

I agree with giggsy. Having backed him AP I would much prefer they ran him asap before the really heavy ground kicks in.
Thought the horse was unlucky last year tbf. Coming back from an injury and a year off and having only one prep run on heavy ground before the CH.  Whilst he has shown the tendency to make the odd error, there is no doubting in my mind he would be the class horse in the race and as Wellchief said Champagne Fever could have other options. I think 10/1 is a fair price....roll on Tuesday hopefully!

would be very useful as a guide too, Cue Card runs over the same C&D in the preceding race

Also just noticed he is entered at Warwick on Wednesday as well

hmm, Hendo likes sending one to Warwick I would expect he will go there instead

Not running 2mara but entered at Warwick on Wed.

Not among decs for Warwick 2mara. Anybody know if he's entree anywhere else in the next week?

no other entries that I can see..anyone know why hes not running tmrw?

He's entered at Sandown on Saturday

Just seen that. Hope he gets a run soon.

Barrys Blog

GRANDOUET ATR Tracker did some very good and intensive schooling, really getting the hang of it. He must have jumped 15 fences last week and ten with Nico de Boinville on Monday and I went up 15 times on him on Thursday. He’s good.

Who will ride if he runs Saturday??,i see BG is going to Wincanton according to Racing Post site.

Possibly McCoy.

I would think McCoy? Who knows maybe it'll be #4000?!

or maybe not...........

Sandow much harder jumping trcak than Warwick imo,hope his hasn't missed the boat,then starts whining that ground was too soft to run etc!!

Sandown sorry.

Barry G . named as jock for Sandown race on Racing Post web site.

Maybe Dai Walters is flying him there between races?! It would be a statement in my eyes if Geraghty didn't ride him, especially on his first start over fences.
Hopefully he gets round and performs well

Totally agree nostaw. Wouldnt be happy with my Arkle bet if Baz decided he was riding elsewhere. Cant see it mind you.

Deffo looks like Geraghty's at Sandown tomorrow. Ground will be plenty soft enough for Grandouet though!

Going Report for Sandown ATM:

"SANDOWN PARK - Jump (Updated:08/11/2013 at 07:02:25)
 
Going

Chase - Good to Soft, Soft in places (Back Straight Good in
places)Going Stick: Chase 6.4 Thursday at 16:00

Weather

31mm rain since Sunday.Dry Thursday. Spell of rain forecast
Friday afternoon/ evening and further spell of rain Saturday
late morning/early afternoon. Each spell of rain currently
forecast by Met Office to be at least 5mm and possibly more."


While I agree it would not be ideal it it were to be much softer I would hope he can handle it.
He did put in a good performance on heavy ground behind Zarkander at Cheltenham last season.

Catch me,
He was down to ride at Wincanton till D Walters 2 got pulled out.
Read into that what you will, but I suspect the owner probably flexed his muscles somewhat.

Interesting  Id have thought Munir had more clout though?!

why?

Neither owner has particular hold over BJG imo. He rides what he thinks is best option, short & long term.

Yes but he will have a better relationship with certain owners.

It's a decent little race tomorrow. Only 4 runners but some strong to decent formlines. Hinterland finished 3 lengths behind Captain Conan last season and Turn Over Sivola fell last time out when he would have gone very close in the finish to Dodging Bullets. Grandouet is going to have to produce a good effort on his first chase start. Good stuff, no mickey mouse race which will tell us fcuk all.

Worth the watch for sure. He must have schooled pretty well. There are easier introductions for a novice chaser than Sandown!

Well I guess we would have to ask the yard why he was going to Wincanton, but I would have thought it was cos he had 2 big rides compared to the one at sandown, and those 2 rides were the same owner.
Love to believe BG wanted to be at Wincanton thinking about the future as they interest me greatly for the festival.Plus OWhisky would sure benefit more with BG on board imo and West Wizard also.

Still, don't matter now. He rides Grandouet, and quiet a fascinating race by the looks of it.

Hope there's a bit of pace in the race  (outsider might enjoy a bit of time in the sun) so they don't crawl and mess about. Grandouet will probably pull a bit aswell especially on his first run over fences. Decent pace, jump well and win on the bridle. That's what I'm hoping for tomorrow.

Had to top up a bit more at 10-1. If / when that happens Giggsy, I can see him being 7-1 joint fav.

Yeh Sint,its interesting with the form of Dodging Bullets,i was quiet impressed with him. Turn over sivola was giving him a good race when falling, so could provide us with a bit of a guide today.Hinterland had a few chases and his run behind Captain Conan was not too bad.If Grandouet wins this well hes gonna be popular for sure.
As per normal for me with these type of races its a watching brief,with the jumping being watched very carefully.

Two years ago, thought Grandouet had a great chance in the Champion Hurdle, as he travels so well in his races. Since then, a tumble, some niggles, and now I think he may not really be the type of hardy battler you need for Cheltenham. Got to be a great jumper at speed. We'll go somewhere towards finding out today I guess, but I have my reservations.

Not sure how much you'll find out today, Hinterland is a rancidly over hyped beast.

PFN says Hinterland bled after his thumping by Simonsig fwiw.

Jesus, he jumps there well big, innit.

Still keen in his races.

No Arkle winner there imvho.

Slips torn up already. Sure he will improve loads etc etc, but agree. Couldnt have him on my mind for the Arkle after that.

Was gettin beat by Hinterland - nothin to see here, move along

Do you know when Champagne Fever is due out BJG?

Listened 2 commentary and it didn't sound good. I'll watch it later and have a better opinion.

Reckon the unseating by Grandouet today was in part due to Hinterland coming across him as they jumped the last. I suspect Barry will say something similar. That said, even with a clear jump and landing the form does not look good enough. Grandouet could be a bit of a bridle horse as well.

He'll be a lot lot better in a strong run race and bigger field, I wasn't a fan as I think he's another of the specialist hurdlers now going chasing because they don't think he can win a CH now, but if I was a supporter of his I wouldn't be writing him off yet after today, he he needs to settle and he'll be a lot better, tanked through the race today but earlier exertions were catching up at the end.

Fair point duffy. He does need a strong pace to run at. Maybe the Owner can use Raya Star

yes, I'm sure king won't mind

No pace in the race didn't help. Ground almost certainly too soft. Must have schooled better at home for them to go to Sandown first time up. I wouldn't give up om the Arkle if I was on at a fancy price but he doesn't look a natural and I don't think Cheltenham is his track.

duffy
09 Nov 13 13:58
Joined:
28 Mar 03
| Topic/replies: 10,944 | Blogger: duffy's blog
He'll be a lot lot better in a strong run race and bigger field, I wasn't a fan as I think he's another of the specialist hurdlers now going chasing because they don't think he can win a CH now, but if I was a supporter of his I wouldn't be writing him off yet after today, he he needs to settle and he'll be a lot better, tanked through the race today but earlier exertions were catching up at the end.

Not sure I see the logic. If exertions were catching up with him at the end of a sedately run affair, how wuould that equate to a faster pace suiting him?

Now, this was first run of season, and first run over fences, so entitled to improve on both counts.

Unless you mean jumping errors / jumping too big catching up with him.

The logic is, he was pulling and wasting energy fighting against the jockey with the jockey fighting him whilst the others were racing within themselves, whilst all the horses were still racing together so his extra burn was affording him gained ground on the field, if it was a stronger pace he would still be using up the same energy because the jockey would have been able to let him stride out within the natural pace of the race, the other horses would in that situation be using up an equal amount of energy to him having to go at the increased pace themselves, therefore being in the same boat as him at the closing stages of the race.

wasn't affording him gained ground on the field that should read.

Cheers duffy, get what you mean. Was the jockey remiss then in not letting the 'on paper' much better horse stride out and go his natural pace?

I was just thinking that, why didn't he just let him go, the horse was in 2nd place on sufferance for most of the race, although I accept that we've seen horses pull far more than he did today, you can still see after a number of the fences that the horse momentarily got lit up and geraghty quickly put the brakes on, I'm not a fan of these "hurdlers" belatedly taking up an alternative career, but for all the negatives today I can see a lot of hope for him, there were a couple of mistakes granted, but he jumped very well too for the majority.

Bear in mind too that in hinterland, although much maligned as an over-rated horse, he was at the start of last season, nicholl's great hope for the arkle and although not living up to that, certainly isn't no mug and himself will be better this time round considering he appears to be more tractable through the race, grandouet didn't do that bad against a far more experienced rival in him.

I think to win the Arkle you (generally) need a tough type with a real appetite for jumping fences at speed. There may well be a few obvious candidates from last season (top hurdlers making the transition), but until we find out for sure who is 'up for it' then the Arkle can be a bit of a minefield. I know that history might well say that top quality hurdlers fare well, but that might just mean that they are proper chasing types.

The horse has always been a hold up horse and assuming that he gets to The Arkle that is exactly how he will be ridden so I don't imagine it's the end of the world for connections to lose this battle if it helps him in the war. He's also only six. Ideal time to be going chasing and he's always had the build of a potential chaser.

I'd agree with JOCI clubs main point there. No disrespect to those who have backed any of the main protagonists before they've seen a fence but surely there can be no logic to that?

Defy Logic then, maybe?

Strictly speaking I don't think so. Backing a horse which had fallen in its races or taken them by the roots would defy logic. There is no logic for backing a horse which has never jumped a fence in public because without evidence there can be no logic I'd say.

Think joci was using a play on words, as in defy logic the actual horse and arkle contender

yep,and a contender that jumped really well,unlike that yesterday,which to me was as unlike an Arkle winner as you are likely to see as re jumping.Just cannot afford to jump that big in a 2m chase,using up far too much energy and too long in the air.
I am all for giving novices chances and he deserves another,but jumping needs to be sorted,and to be honest it looks his natural way of getting over them.
Its always a risk backing without having seen them jump,it can pay off,but in this case it aint.

Aprt from the first couple, I don't actually think he jumped too badly, and I feel it was a tough assignment for a first ever chase.

However, I don't think there are any excuses; he was simply beaten by the better horse, and Hinterland would have won if the partnership would have stayed intact.  Hinterland was firmly put in his place by Simonsig and Captain Conan last year (Simonsig pulled a lot harder than Grandouet as well), so Grandouet is miles away from being an Arkle winner at the moment.

Luckily I had a nice price, so I have layed off the win part at half the odds I backed him at (I'll keep the place part though because the race will cut up), but imo, you'd need your head testing to back him around the 12/1 mark for the Arkle after that.

To be honest, I expected him to make the odd mistake because it was his first race, but I expected him to be tanking between fences and make up the distance lost.  I was surprised that he looked like he couldn't go with Hinterland at the end, because I expected a comfortable 3 or 4 length win, and to say, "when he improves his jumping he'll win further".

Eeternaloptimist, I suppose thats the gamble; where you are taking much better odds hoping that they have schooled well and can transfer their ability.  Usually they have an "easy" first race and will be clipped in a few points after, where you can lay off at smaller odds if you want to.

It's similar to anyone backing Briar Hill without him watching a hurdle race.

It's like Budd says, some times it works, some times it doesn't (I'm sure the people who had Simonsig at about 8/1 this time last year weren't complaining - I was though because I wasn't one of them )

well chief
He was tanking between fences, geraghty put the brakes on after every fence, he didn't jump as bad as it's being made out, he winged quite a few of them, he was keen through a lot of the race and travelled by far the best horse in the race too, as he should, he emptied quick enough at the end, but I'd forgive him that, all in all,it wasn't no great disaster to my eyes, and I'm not even a fan of these hurdlers going chasing and certainly haven't backed him.

Duffy,he jumped far too big and came down under pressure,and was pretty well beaten had he stood up.

Yes,he deserves another chance,but a repeat of that he wont even be aimed at a decent 2m chase imo.

And if Hinterland is anywhere near winning an Arkle then its a poor show imo.

Hinterland isn't of course arkle quality, but he's a fair yardstick to begin with, he's got experience and himself looks a completely different horse to last year, where, certainly in his first race last year was a complete nutter, grandouet jumped the first couple big,and was perhaps intimidated a bit at the last as hinterland edged across him a little but other than that jumped well, down the side of the course his jumping was excellent, we're certainly not talkng about an iris's gift round of jumping here although you'd think so.

The main thing that disappointed me was Simonsig had already crossed the line before Hinterland reached the last when they met, and Grandouet would have struggled if he's stayed up.

He travelled well in the race, but Hinterland travelled just as strongly and was drawing clear. I'd accept that if he was pulling really hard and got beat by Champagne Fever, but I think he should have won yesterday no matter how hard he pulled to be honest. Not many think of Hinterland as an Arkle winner, but he jumped better, travelled as well and was finishing the race better than Grandouet, but is twice the odds?

I'm probably being a bit harsh on Grandouet, and he should improve with every run, but he just didn't have the engine at the end that I thought he would.  I know i keep going back to it, but that's what was impressive about Simonsig, because he pulled really bad, but had the massive engine to compensate; I'm not sure Grandouet has that.

Anyone else think Grandouet is a vastly overrated beast, exacerbated by the fact that people are constantly making excuses for him?

I must point out, that when making cut throat judgements I have a terrible record so prepare for Grandouet to sweep all before him now and win the Arkle in a common canter.

Jumped more than a couple big mate.
Anyway, maybe they can improve that,we shall have to wait and see,but he does need to jump lower to be a 2m chaser of quality,but like I say deserves another chance.

Joist,one more and the excuses have run out imo.

Yep, well it's all about opinions, I'm probably miles off and as I say I've never been a fan of his and certainly never backed it before in my life and still haven't, but as a side note I kind of like it when occasionally I begin to entertain the chances of horses I previously have had my mind completely shut off to, that' been a problem a bit in the past for me certainly, the " no, that's not one of my horses" full stop syndrome,this phenomenon is starting to happen with regards Captain Conan too.

Yeh,i was like that with Boston Bob mate,but ive changed my mind somewhat after the RSA,and actually now think he has a decent chance of a big run in the Gold Cup.
Don't think I will ever be a fan of Captain Conan though,overrated aint he??

With regards CC, I'm beginning to get in my head the reason he didn't get home over 20f at cheltenham was because (and admittedly I keep reading this) he was a weak horse last term but has had a really good summer and strengthened up immeasureably, if there is any truth to that, (and at least he did win over 20f a couple of times, although on one of those occasions he did it whilst walking up the run in at sandown) then I'm on his side, incidentally, with the benefit of hindsight he may well have won that arkle mightn't he?

maybe,the way it panned out he would not have been far away for sure.That IS his distance though,imo.
Do think Simonsig is better than that performance though,and on his day would have him a fair way in front of CC.
If CC were at any other stable I think he would stay at 2m,and imo Henderson is in danger of messing up CC as he did with Oscar Whisky!!

The result definitely wasn't what I was hoping for but I think he deserves another chance. If next time he runs on better ground with a quicker pace and disappoints again then I'm afraid that's games up.

I think last weeks was a great improvement. He jumped great and he ran on under pressure. An even faster pace at Cheltenham will suit him better and as long as the ground isn't too soft on the 1st day then he will be bang there at the end. What do u guys think?

I don't think you can be put off by his last run. People may be underestimating the form of the Henry VIII. I wouldn't be surprised to see either of the first two from Sandown winning the Arkle. Grandouet has had far fewer chase runs than Hinterland, and, despite being beaten by him twice, I'd fancy him to improve past the Nicholls horse. He seems quite a good price for the Arkle at present.

Down to run at Kempton on 27th. Would like to see a nice win before being put away when ground gets worse.

I've suddenly become interested in this horse for the Arkle having gone right off him for the Arkle after his debut. Clearly, my Taquin Dy Seiul punt has gone awol now, so that is one reason, but some very shrewd punter brought it to my attention that Grandouet has not had an uninterrupted seasons with injuries since his Triump hurdle year. At the age of 6, going on 7, he should now be in his physical prime and needs 3 or 4 consecutive runs for conditioning purposes. 12/1 might look a big price given his hurdles form and class.

Ground won't be any worse than it is now, Giggsy!

Shouldn't his hurdles class and form get him beating Hinterland??
I know a few, inc me, have pretty much underestimated Hinterland,but I would really expect Grandouet to have beaten him lto.
Theirs just something about this horse that tells me he aint trustworthy, and imo there are more reliable ones for the Arkle at prices similar or bigger.

With CF getting turned over 2day ( I think he would've lost even if he didn't make that mistake) the Arkle betting is wide open. If Grandouet wins well 2mara he'll be an 8/1 chance.

Valdez pulled out 2day so basically a 2 horse race. If he doesn't win 2day then it's game over as far as the Arkle is concerned.

Sure is. I would say that he would need to win by at least 4 lengths too given he is receiving 6lb from Dodging Bullets.

I'll show my ar$e if Grandouet wins the Arkle

Well, that's his Arkle dream over imo. Jumped pretty well today but still very keen and found little.

Yep, I'm gutted with that in all honesty, I  couldn't have got him much more wrong if I tried...and boy did I try!...back to the drawing board.

Haha, Duffy, we all know how much you love Grandouet.

I'm just glad I laid my stake off after his first defeat to Hinterland.

I see no point in carrying on over fences; has to go Champion Hurdle for me now.

Be interesting 2 here what BG has 2 say about it. Ground was pretty soft and he was keen having 2 make his own running. Sprinter Sacre and Simonsig had 2 do it the hard way for the last 2 years and done it easily and judged on that performance 2day he's nowhere close to either of those. He has had 3 pretty quick runs which I don't think he has had before and 2 of those were on ground he would've hated. Wonder were they'll go next with him?

I don't see the point in returning to hurdles. It's not like his form over fences isn't worth a tuppence. Those 2 close runs to Hinterland still say he can win races. Maybe he'll be in the Grand Annual Imagine that.

am I the only 1 on here that still fancies him for the Arkle? fast pace and good ground will suit him. hates soft ground (don't know why Henderson ran him at Kempton) so his 2 disappointing runs are easily forgiven. what do you guys/gals think?

Having backed him I would like to say I agree but my main worry with him (beside his jumping!) is that he hasn't won for over two years!
I couldn't believe that was true when I looked back over his form. Hopefully he can turn it around at Cheltenham but I just get the feeling he'll end up getting beaten by one or two others. Not bad value e/w though at 20/1

i think his jumping has been pretty good. I just think the make up of the Arkle will play into his hands with a fast pace and plenty of runners to help him settle.

I really liked his runs before the last one and had backed him, but last time put me right off him...I get that a strong pace where he can settle will suit him, but I just don't trust him anymore, he just fell in a hole after having it all his own way, and yes I know making his own running wouldn't have suited ideally but he should have been lasting a bit longer than that...totally fell to pieces, at some point in the arkle it's going to get tough....!!! I've done me money on him I'm afraid.

Completely agree with Duffy. I fancied him before Kempton, but, even allowing for conditions not being right for him, he had to perform better than that. He doesn't have the bottle for an Arkle.

Having said that, he's probably a decent back to lay prospect. It's likely he'll appear to be travelling well at some point before finding little.

Down to run this Saturday. If it's soft ground hope Henderson pulls him out!