Cheltenham Festival
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Any update about weather he stays over hurdles or goes over fences this year? Henderson said a few weeks ago that he was staying over hurdles but judging on the betting on here they seem to have changed there minds. Thanks.
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Replies: 147
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Goes over fences now
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Cheers BJG! 2 words..........LUMP ON!!!!
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Why so confident giggsy??
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I've always been convinced that this fella is a chaser, and backed him 10 months ago with this in mind
The best hurdlers always go the best in the Arkle, so while it doesn't guarantee success, its a really good platform to build on. While he sometimes looks like disappoints, I don't think he lacks fight. Hes just been up against quality opposition, and has had a few injury setbacks. Difficult to say, but I think he would have placed if staying upright in the Champion Hurdle. He'll almost certainly be the stable number one in this race, which i think will be an advantage. Champagne Fever is the obvious target, but I've backed Grandouet ew at a good price. |
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WAT PRICE 10 MONTHS AGO CHIEF ?
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Made my move at 10/1. Excellent price IMO and could easily see him going off fav. Whilst I greatly respect CF, I'm not sure he will have enough toe for an Arkle myself.
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wat 10 months ago you took 10/1 for arkle 2014 ? youve gotta be joking fella ? nes 10/1 now with victor
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Not me mate. This is the first time I have backed him. Well Chief backed him ages ago, and think I saw him mention 33/1 on another thread. Which is different class!
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sorry bud my mistake if that is the case dbl carpet 33/1 well all i can say is very good shout although i am on the mullins traffic cone champagne fever , will be a super arkle hope they all arrive there in 2014 well done CHIEF with the 33s
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His best form over hurdles was high standard,and should he transfer that to fences hes a threat for sure,but imo he was a bit hit and miss over hurdles and not one I would be looking at right now at the prices,although 33 would be nice!!
Plus his trainer might change his mind again!!!! |
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I look down the betting for this race and I can't see anything 2 beat him. CF is a good horse but front runners have a terrible record in it and the way Grandout travels CF will just b setting it up for him. In the last 2yrs I've got 8/1 Sprinter Sacre and 7/1 Simonsig antepost so at 10/1 I'm going for the treble with Grandout.
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Understand what you say giggsy,looking at the betting,but this is very early and for sure their will be plenty of nov chasers around,it may look different in a month or so mate.
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as ever this race promises to be one of the most anticipated at the Festival, just love it
won't be getting involved myself until the main contenders have shown what they can over fences |
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I know were u'r coming from Buddelia. But if these contenders come out and disappoint then Grandouets price will only go 1 way.
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As Judo says, we need to see them jump a fence yet though before making any firm decisions.
Champagne Fever and Grandouet are a long way clear over the rest on hurdles form (assuming Oscar Whisky will go the Jewson route), but you don't know if there could be a good one lurking there somewhere that could improve all ends for fences (I'm hoping Sizing Rio  ) |
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i've always liked grandouet and he must be in the mix, but i suspect he might end up a 'nearly' horse
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That's definitely possible mate.
He didn't quite hit the heights over hurdles that I thought he would, but he has been thrown in the deep end from day one. I think this would be his easiest chance of a Cheltenham win so far though, as I very much doubt the Arkle will be as competitive as winning a Champion Hurdle against the likes of Hurricane Fly, Rock on Ruby, Zarkandar etc |
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cant jump hurdles !
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Neither could Simonsig!
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Always extremely clumsy over hurdles. Doesn't mean he won't jump fences better when in his comfort zone but just the sort to impress with a few bloodless wins but blunder when the pressure's on. Definitely one to oppose in the top races.
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Cyclops. Before he has even jumped a fence in public, you've decided he's 'definitely one to oppose in the top races'. I find that baffling tbh!
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I don't flattered to deceive over hurdles.
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It's an opinion, CCM. I believe he's not in any way a natural jumper and that will be exposed when asked to jump at speed. Seen plenty of him over hurdles to form that opinion.
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it's a strange comment too:
'definitely one to oppose in the top races' how many top races do you envisage he will asked to run in during his novice season? The Arkle, Top Novices Chase maybe? do you think he is likely to get beaten in ordinary novice chases on his way to Cheltenham? if he turns up unbeaten over fences, which is pretty likely, in the Arkle you will be opposed based on his hurdles form will you? just interested, as I'm one that forms my opinions for Cheltenham when all the evidence is available, why you choose to form a rigid opinion this early |
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yep,quiet agree,especially when we are talking about nov chasers yet to be seen jumping a fence.
Not advisable to be rigid at all imo,either touting confidently as some have done with Champagne Fever and Grandouet,and dismissing, as here with Grandouet. |
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I wasn't criticising cyclops. Totally respect your opinion. But I've long since accepted good hurdlers don't always make good chasers and dodgy hurdles aren't always dodgy chasers. Best to judge each discipline on its own merits IMO. At this stage, it's surely pure guesswork?
There haven't been too many novice chasers with better hurdles form, and I think he is a really exciting recruit. |
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Personally,i dont think G is a bad jumper. when he fell he just hit them at speed.
I still think he lifts his legs like a natural born chaser. |
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I agree IS. Always felt he was a chaser in waiting.
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This thread encouraged me to go look at his career and the first thing that struck me was...
he is still only SIX years old  so drawing firm conclusions about a horse that is a baby in chasing termsHe seems to have been around so long that it is easy to forget how young he is, although of course he will be 7 in March Second, was he has never won a race with more than 10 runners so it might pay to remember that later. He also has a BHA mark over hurdles of 166 so clearly has a huge engine. There will not be many higher rated going chasing this year that's for sure. I will consider him further after his chasing debut where I will be looking for quick accurate jumping and the ability to finish his race off. As for his jumping, he fell twice and got brought down once and I'm not drawing any conclusions on that |
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and he won't get 20 furlongs on a Kawasaki
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Completely agree that you don't want to pre-judge novice chasers too much. Many surprise with their jumping for better and for worse.
But sometimes you get a feeling about a horse's abilities that you're prepared to stick with until conclusively proved wrong. Grandouet is a strangely shaped, long backed horse who is not built like a chaser for me; his clumsiness will surface! |
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Ah... the if's but's and maybe's! I feel like the Cheltenham forum is properly back at last
Fair enough cyclops, you have to back your own gut! |
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I'm so glad I started this thread! Love all the opinions and debates going on! That is why I feel NH is better than the flat. You don't get people taking bout Royal Ascot 5 months in advance! I Grandouet takes 2 fences he WINS the Arkle! End of!!
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If he takes to fences, I think he'll place at least.
Recently the Arkle has been small runner fields, so once it is 100% confirmed he is going chasing, I don't think he's a bad e/w bet for the Arkle, because of the top 3 and 1/4 the odds you'll get antepost. The same can be said for Champagne Fever, but there is slightly more risk with him though, because he's a lot more versatile so his targets are more open. |
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Couldn't agree more wellchief. If he takes to fences reasonably well, he will also be a great trade due to his hurdles form and connections. Can't really see a negative with backing him at current prices at this stage.
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Still yet to see a viable candidate,couple been out but don't see them as realistic contenders at this stage.
Have had a bit of a dabble at decent horses at bigger prices,although they aint definite runners but may end up as 2m novices-hopefully!!. No proper bet yet,too early for that imo,and certainly aint touching the top two till ive seen them jump a fence. Agree Grandouet could be value,but then again after his first chase,he may not be. All the time Cfever is around he aint shortening a great deal anyway,is my thinking. |
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Arkle winner 6/1 everywere now
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talking about Simonsig for the King George Cammy??
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Grandouet travels like a dream through his races. I see CF going flat coming down the hill with Grandouet hacking behind him and kicking on coming into the straight. On Simonsig- I think he deserves to go down the 2mile route until he proves he isn't good enough. He's the only horse that could potentially put it up 2 SS.
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