This time last year, Nicholls had it set in his mind that SC was definitely his best GC hope rather than AF.

I think that unless AF runs in the KG and performs in such a way to very strongly suggest that the extra distance would suit, nicholls will be intent on running in the ryanair.

The fact that the stable is significantly weaker than in previous seasons means more than ever that they'll want to spread their top class horses more evenly around to give themselves the best chance as possible to win as many of the best races as they can.

On top of that you've got Nicholl's opinion of SC,, last year many of us were surprised at his bullishness regarding this horse and the gold cup, no course form, a style of travelling that suggested a flat track and a race like the KG would suit far more, he was having none of it though, and even with the fall, he was really proven right.

very good price 25/s, you got a chance he could win the kg and still run in the ryanair, or him not staying the KG trip and definitely running in the ryanair.

That's the thing Judo,with nrfb if he don't come back I can have a bet on the day,if he does and he does well over 3m or so,hes a probable runner and shorter than 20.

As for the ground,yes he goes well on soft,and others may be hindered by it,but his form is on all types of ground,and I would have no worries whatever the going.
As you say the main worry is him coming back  from injury,and then proving he can stay well enough to be competitive enough for a Gold Cup.
At least the bet gives me allowance,and I would not be betting him now without that.

yeh,i have Cue Card as well,just hope he gets decent ground for his next attempt stepping up in distance,like you I still think he could be a Gold Cup horse,certainly stays 2m5 very well.I would just love to see Cue Card and Al Ferof taking on Bobsworth and co!!

Yeh,could be ground dependant chief-that's a fair point mate,but for me its simple,he stays its GC he don't its Ryanair....whatever the going.
Mr Hales will have him in the Gold Cup if he can,no doubt in my mind.

yep,happens too often where just 1 thing can

yeh,going is always important,but what I was referring to with AF is that knowing his owner if AF proves he stays he will be in the Gold Cup. And I would certainly agree that he would be less affected by soft ground then a lot of others would be.
With Cue Card,i think last season showed that he will need decent ground to show connections he can stay well enough,although if he settled better in the KG it would have helped!!

Yeah Budd that was the point I was trying to make.

While he is probably not ground dependent, he is probably less inconvenienced than others in soft ground.  I think soft really blunts Cue Cards natural speed, which is why I think AF would need soft to beat him over 2.5.

I wouldn't be too quick to back him in a good ground Ryanair, where I wouldn't hesitate in a good ground Gold Cup, because they go those few mph slower to compensate.

2miles on good was fine when he won the top nov hurdle of the season beating the best supreme fields I have seen-that I remember anyway!!

But,i really don't want to go down the Arkle argument again,its all been said many times.
But anyone who cares to watch the race again,be my guest.Hes going as well as any at the time.Dont be confused with what Ruby was doing.
Should have been ridden the same as he had in all his previous races,but I guess they were so scared of Sprinter,they decided to try something different.Im just glad he recovered,could have been a lot worse!!

Anyway,anyone who studies his best form will see that its on all types of going.

I'll see if I can put it together but I don't think it's really relevant to chasing

I do know that AF was doing consistent 130 to 132 in all of his chase races pre Arkle

and SS did 145 on debut, 129 in a canter then 160 in the Game Spirit without letting off the handgrake

Cue Card did 138 on his final chase start before the Arkle

and it was for that reason I said weeks before that AF was nowhere near quick enough to win, Not only the rating but the lack of progression. Also CC and SS both won their last starts when achieving their best rating, AF got beat


Last 3 Chases before Arkle:

AF:  130 114 132
CC:  UR  110 138
SS:  146 124 160

Menorahs best was 115 prior to the Arkle and he was 22 lengths behind Cue Card which gives a clue

^ the first bit was off the top of my head, the final bit I actually looked it up

ok mate.

His 1st race back reportedly at Ascot in November,if all goes to plan,bl00dy hope so, i'm planning to go that day.
Hopefully it will all go ok and he will then be up for the KG.

He doesn't go best in a slog. When horses win in the mud, much of it is to do with the opposition struggling to go in it. Al Ferof is better on good ground, although he can handle soft stuff.

yep,sums it up well Graeme,thats why I would have no problem backing him on any going.

Judo,
That confuses me.....the overall time and SPEED figure good,but showed no quickness??
And watching that race he certainly showed me speed after the 2nd last!!
Yes,the jockeys in front probably forgot about him and ran their own race to a certain extent,but he still won the top 2m nov hurdle against serious horses,on good ground.
A slow boat would not have won that race.

Yes Judo,we want as many smart horses as we can get,and if he is recoverd ok,he is one they will all be wary of.

The time for the Supreme won by AF was very good, certainly up to scratch for a decent renewal and that was evident from the speed figure (155) AF got. But he contributed none of the pace to the race because he was not quick enough to do so. The subsequent performances of the runners (SS, CC, AF himself) confirm that the form is strong so we can have faith in the speed figure

However, and I don't have the split times to back this up but it is by far the most likely reason, what he did do is maintain that gallop from the second last to the line whereas the likes of Cue Card and Sprinter Sacre were slowing down. The visual impression is that Al Ferof is accelerating when in fact it is the others who are slowing and I would bet a pound to a tenner that sectional timing would show this to be the case.

The best analogy I can give is Christine Ohuruogu who gets behind but closes the gap by maintaining speed in the last 100 yards whilst her opponents are tying up.

The Supreme remains Al Ferof's fastest run yet and by some distance. It indicates he is capable of getting from the start line to the finish in a quick time. My concern is that he has not reproduced it anywhere and that may indicate he needs a special set of circumstances to do so. That may simply be that he needs a lot more distance so until he tries 3 miles it remains a question mark in my mind as there is every chance that could be just what he needs to show the Supreme Hurdle level of speed.

Anyway, hope some of that internal dialogue gibberish makes some sort of sense

pmsl!

budd

I have the sectionals from the 2011 Supreme and Champion.

Taking the two winners positions throughout the race from when they jump the first hurdle to the winning post, AF was around nine lengths up on HF jumping the 5th. Jumping two out, HF was a couple of lengths in front, but Al Ferof ran from the second last to the line nearly two lengths quicker.

My chart shows HF just beating AF, the actual time of the Supreme was over 1.5 seconds faster: Supreme weights 3lb lower.

But does that mean that AF should be given a rating 3 pounds behind HF? The RP rated HF's performance at 171 and AF's at 155.

When you look at the horses that finished placed in the CH, Clerks Choice is awarded an RP of 161 due to his proximity to the winner. Now as long as I have a hole in my jacksy, there is no way that Clerks Choice is a 160+ hurdler, not even that day.

It is a shame that these days, all "senior" championship winners are given an automatic minimum of 170: I made HF's performance around ten pound lower in the 2011 CH which brings it more into line with how the Supreme was run.

But as I always say they are only numbers

Sorry Judo I only do it on the winner (after the race of course!!!!) and from hurdle to hurdle

Not really sure how much I trust the bare times, even when the races are on the same track on the same day. Would having a supreme novice race not change the ground a little, enough for a time difference? It also ignores how the races are ran and for what reasons...there just seems to be too many occasions where the novice race has a faster time than the showpiece race, IIRC Dynaste and Grand Crus' felthams were the same in relation to the George, I wouldn't read too much into it.

Forgot about that Harry We had a few debates my friend-hope we were nice to each other!!

Yeh i'm waiting till hes a definite runner at Ascot then I shall have a punt on the KG. Should be about the price he is now I would think.