Cheltenham Festival
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world hurdle 2014
world hurdle 2014
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Cheers Duffy. Could be overpriced if they can get a run into him before Cheltenham. I agree STS, Big Bucks is an exception, and I don't think anyone would hold it against Ruby if he chose to ride him.
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Annie Power has no chance in the Champion Hurdle and Big Bucks is 11yo coming back from injury. Can't be having him whatsoever at 11/4.
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Solwhit out AP best chance of festival win?
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Backed big bucks @ 3/1, 11/4 and gone again today at 5/2. Race looks very weak now bar him and Annie Power. If he's 90% the horse he was I can't see him losing. AP is the only real danger IMO
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not got involved in this race yet financially, id like to see bb run first and then decide if there is any value lower down the market
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Think it is quite risky to be loading up on Big Bucks tbh. He may win the Cleeve Hurdle and he could win it well, but there is a chance of the bounce factor afterwards. Up against him are 3 horses who are improving and look, or are, Grade 1 class. Annie Power, Boston Bob, More of That. If those 3 line-up against him he'll have to run the best race of his life imo.
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Agree, although I think that solwhit would have been the biggest danger of the lot to him....however those 3 above could have any amount in them.
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75% of stake is NRFB so some insurance there. More about positioning myself - what price if he wins the cleeve? 6/4?? Can either lay out or cover myself another way. I'd rather take a gamble now than wait for his price to collapse.
Could be completely wrong and it goes the other way. |
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celestial halo is overpriced imo looking back at his festival record, only the one really disappointing run in the CH won by ROR, he,s been there and done it likes the course, annie is yet to run over the trip, its ok winning over 2.4f as OW proved but the step up can find them out, more of that needs to improve by about 12 lbs to even think of getting in the mix and boston bob I don't think is good enough and needs to improve a similar amount to more of that.
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I can see Big Bucks hosing up in the Cleeve then beat in World Hurdle. If he is 6/4 in the World immediately after that then i'll be hitting the pink button. All to do at 11yo.
Annie Power would hose all over More Than That for me. Can't see More than that being better than Annie Power at all to be honest. On at 6/1 AP and the main worry for me is her turning up. |
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If BB hoses up in the cleeve he most probably will go 6/4, maybe even 11/8 5/4 with the weight of support hes sure to get, but i would be waiting until 9am morning of the race personally cos the books are bound to want to get him and there will surely be one or two push him out ridiculously!
If 6/4 generally, don't be surprised if the likes of laddies/hills went 2/1 or even 5/2 9-9:15am! |
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already posted this on wrong thread - my bad...
is there anything up with Salubrious? Not quoted by VC or the sponsors today but seems steady enough elsewhere. Curious. Anyone heard anything? |
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My bad? Surely no one says such a poncey phrase nowadays??
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Anyway,in answer to your question....very interesting horse and one of the two I'm on for the world.took 25/1 ew on here immediately after the long walk which...IMO and also Jacobs...he would have went very close to winning if hadn't made that dreadful error.
Concerned he's went out the way on here and that stable have Bucks, Halo n Zarkandar. Salubrious 4th on the list by my guessing? |
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Andy Stewart intending to run all three of his in World hurdle according to odds checker article yesterday.
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'have went' - surely no one uses such incorrect grammar nowadays?
Thanks for the responses gents. Agree that he's an interesting one at a price Ballydoyle. Still odd that he's not quoted in those 2 places. |
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Victor knows Just So
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Reve De Sivola has to be the current ew bet.BB who knows how he is.AP looks fantastic but has not been confirmed for the race and has never ran over the distance.MOT a novice.AFC brilliant last year but not this year so far.BBob im hoping will re route to the Gold Cup!Are Z and CH running here?All in all RDS is a true stayer and will run in the race so at the current prices ......
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Got found out last year when he had everything in his favour though. Not even placed.
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STD announced as Big Bucks new jockey.
Wonder what DJ thinks of that?? Anyway, at least it will stop all this Ruby riding him nonsense. |
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All those that thought Ruby was a cert to ride him look a bit stupid now
Hopefully Big Bucks hoses up in the Cleeve and I get a lovely big lay in March. |
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Fehily n Geraghty would easily be ahead of STD for me. Easily! Jacob must feel like a right muppet. Stable jockey and erm doesnt ride the stable star?
"We will be looking for someone that knows the horse" |
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saphir de rhuea in the mix !
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you can be a right smart a5ed ****, Ballydoyle.
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Couldnt make it up though...Jacob's just become the stable jockey...they state they want someone that knows him....then put on STD whos never rode him . Jacob should just go "stick yer job". Fehily shouldve got it anyway.As for Big Bucks, lay of the festival. |
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I agree Bally all a bit strange. They should have got that woman who now trains KS to ride him.
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Ballydoyle
I'm not sure if I've read your post incorrectly or not. My understanding is you think Annie Power will hose all over More Of That (fair enough she's clearly special but for what it's worth I think he is also). But you then go on to say that you backed Salubrious after the Long Walk. Again fair enough. He proved that he belongs in grade 1 company and looked as if he would have gone close enough though I think Reve De Sivvola would have held him on the day. You haven't addressed the elephant in the room though. The week before that More Of That laughed at Salubrious at Cheltenham and one would think he can only keep improving from that all the way to March. Aren't you underestimating that performance? |
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Seen several people suggest Salubrious as a chance for the World Hurdle. He's ran well this season but doesn't have a prayer against any of the front four, imo.
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Me
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Salubrious has raced twice at cheltenham so far this season over 3 miles and hasn't been finishing off strongly on either occasion....but you've got a 25/1 shot I suppose so an e/w chance is fair enough.
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Ballydoyle
I'm not sure if I've read your post incorrectly or not. My understanding is you think Annie Power will hose all over More Of That (fair enough she's clearly special but for what it's worth I think he is also). But you then go on to say that you backed Salubrious after the Long Walk. Again fair enough. He proved that he belongs in grade 1 company and looked as if he would have gone close enough though I think Reve De Sivvola would have held him on the day. You haven't addressed the elephant in the room though. The week before that More Of That laughed at Salubrious at Cheltenham and one would think he can only keep improving from that all the way to March. Aren't you underestimating that performance? Possibly but the way I see it is this : Firstly, Salubrious has never ran over 3 miles at Cheltenham Duffy. He has ran once over 3m 2f there in a 17 runner just getting caught off 11-7 with Derham taking 5 off. That's not good enough. The race with More of That was in a 4 runner which effectively became a match with Glens Melody and Gemix out the picture up the run in. He was a sitting duck for McCoy and More of That simply outspeeded him. Again, didn't think anything that says World Hurdle material. The week after however I'm watching the Long Walk hurdle and particularly At Fishers Cross as this was the acid test so far for him. I then notice Salubrious on the bridle against AFC and Reve De Sivola who are no mugs. He then clatters the last and I think "I reckon he may well have won...that was decent 7 days after Cheltenham and 3rd race within a month". Then look to see Nicholls comments and interesting that Jacob said he would have picked up Reve if he hadn't made that blunder. Now, looking at the prices we see Salubrious at 25-1 and More of That at 6-1. Effectively the place odds of the Salubrious are better than the win odds for More of That. But is that based all on a 4 runner 2m 4f I wonder? Salubrious has been to a Cheltenham festival like 18 of the last 20 winners. He hosed up in the Martin Pipe by 7 lengths. He has ran in the Long Walk Hurdle which has proved to be a key trial in recent years so basically he has come second in a Grade 1. His Cheltenham record over hurdles is 122. More of That beat Salubrious cheekily as stated but he has to prove he can mix it over 3 miles. Admittedly it looks as if he will but he has a nice turn of foot about him rather than a grinder. Only had 4 races and never been to a Festival and that would worry me. Not sure how many World Hurdle winners have won with 4/5 runs under their belt but would need to be special. Looking at the race as a whole was next step to considering whether to take Salubrious. Big Bucks - coming back from injury and will be 11yo. Makes no appeal at 5-2. Annie Power - saw her at 8-1 but didn't get involved in her till later at 6-1 NRFB as may not show. Solwhit - hadn't been seen all season. Boston Bob - not sure he is quick enough. Took a while to get going in the Albert Bartlett. Also could go chasing. At Fishers Cross - has problems this year Reve De Sivola - had everything in its favour last year and unplaced Celestial Halo - too old for me Zarkandar - possible danger but ideal Aintree hurdle race and could be kept for that So at 25-1 Salubrious with his mbeing aimed at the race I thought "why not?" |
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All fair points ballydoyle and you could well be right. Specifically referring to More Of That (MOT) I've backed him because like you say he'll need to be special and I think he is. Firstly, I also looked at Salubrious' long walk and he would have gone pretty close had he not missed out the second last. Which like you say proves he can be competitive in grade 1 class. Like you also say this was his third run in a month so he was hardly likely to have improved from a week earlier. In fact logic would say he should have slightly tailed off or at best been about the same. Of course how we factor in different course, ground and longer distance is also relevant but he travelled very well at Ascot and he does have form at Cheltenham as you point out.
Which brings us back to MOT. Sure he has a turn of foot but McCoy never really asked him to show it at Cheltenham. Like you say he won cheekily without McCoy asking the question. We saw the time before in the handicap that when asked he finds plenty and we also saw that big fields don't phase the horse (although there will probably be about a dozen in the world hurdle) and he goes on softish ground. He's bred to relish a step up to three miles. I'm most definitely with you on the Ascot form even if I don't think he would have edged out Reve. I think it's very strong form because in front, with that stiff uphill final mile and very soft ground I think Reve is bombproof pre Christmas. Which is why I'Ve backed MOT. The worry of course has to be his relative lack of experience but that is a double edged sword. He beat Salubrious relatively easily and they must be some way off finding out how good he truly is. In other words like I said I think he has more improvement to come and I'm looking forward to seeing him over 3 miles either in the Cleeve or on the big day. |
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I forgot to add. I also think Annie Power is a special one.
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Glad to see Glen's Melody edge them out today.
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Fook knows where I got those two 3 mile runs for salubrious from at cheltenham....I couldn't even get one right
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Good post Bally and fair points I think re Salibrious.
Im now in on Salibrious-16nrnb. Like the Ascot form with RDS who excels there that time of year. Hes a stayer who will relish 3m at Cheltenham imo. Not sure at all about the race with MOT,im not ignoring it as such,just don't think it will prove that reliable for the WH. I think out the 2 hes better value at around 3 times the price and possibly the more thorough stayer and has Cheltenham winning form. I could be underestimating MOT here of course,as he did beat Sal a shade cosily,but that was less than the required distance he will have to run and hes very inexperienced - I think his price is too short. |
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Ladbrokes World Hurdle
Class 1, Grade One, £275,000 Total Prize Fund, three miles. Cheltenham, Thursday, March 13, three miles. For four-year-olds and upwards which are allotted a rating of 130 or more by the BHA Head of Handicapping following a review of the horses entered and after taking account of races run up to and including March 6 - horses which are not qualified for a rating in GB, IRE or FR may also be entered (such horses may be eligible providing the Handicapper is satisfied that the horse’s racecourse performances up to and including March 6 would merit a minimum rating of 130 – the decision of the BHA Head of Handicapping shall be final). Weights: 4yo: 11st; 5yo+: 11st 10lb; fillies & mares allowed 7lb. Entries closed January 14, entries revealed January 16 (29 entries). Scratchings deadline February 11, £13,750 supplementary entry stage & six-day confirmation stage March 7, final declarations 10am, March 11. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and are correct up to and including the racing of Monday, January 13. Form Horse Age Owner Trainer 1111-11 ANNIE POWER (IRE) 6 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 1111-4U AT FISHERS CROSS (IRE) 7 J P McManus Rebecca Curtis 402231 AWAYWITHTHEGREYS (IRE) 7 Karen Bowen, Saith O Ni & The Hedonists Peter Bowen 11111/1- BIG BUCK'S (FR) 11 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls 2/11FF-1 BOSTON BOB (IRE) 9 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE 426-161 CELESTIAL HALO (IRE) 10 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls 3/2F0-44 COTTON MILL 7 Bloomfields John Ferguson 12F-415 DEDIGOUT (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Tony Martin IRE 112/12r- FINGAL BAY (IRE) 8 Carol Skan Philip Hobbs 124-32U HOLYWELL (IRE) 7 Mrs Gay Smith Jonjo O'Neill r121-23 MALA BEACH (IRE) 6 Chris Jones Gordon Elliott IRE 411P-22 MEDINAS (FR) 7 Frank & Hilda Bell Alan King 35/223-P MEISTER ECKHART (IRE) 8 Atlantic Equine Alan King 1P-U511 MICKIE 6 Ludlow Racing Partnership Henry Daly 113/121- MONKSLAND (IRE) 7 Patricia Hunt Noel Meade IRE 1-111 MORE OF THAT (IRE) 6 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill 1/111/11- QUEVEGA (FR) 10 Hammer & Trowel Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE 4P2-121 RETURN SPRING (IRE) 7 D J Jones Philip Hobbs 42-0131 REVE DE SIVOLA (FR) 9 Paul Duffy Diamond Partnership Nick Williams U222-23 RUBI BALL (FR) 9 SC Ecurie Madame Patrick Papot Willie Mullins IRE 12P-142 RULE THE WORLD 7 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE 115-222 SALUBRIOUS (IRE) 7 The Johnson & Stewart Families Paul Nicholls 10-5411 SAPHIR DU RHEU (FR) 5 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls 3233-U1 SMAD PLACE (FR) 7 Mrs Peter Andrews Alan King 632-405 THOUSAND STARS (FR) 10 Hammer & Trowel Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE 132-403 TRUSTAN TIMES (IRE) 8 Mrs M E Armitage & Peter Armitage Tim Easterby 11-4 WHISPERING GALLERY 8 Bloomfields John Ferguson 23-0321 ZAIDPOUR (FR) 8 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 141-222 ZARKANDAR (IRE) 7 Potensis Limited & Chris Giles Paul Nicholls 29 entries 10 Irish-trained Timeform Ratings for the World Hurdle (weight-adjusted) 187+ BIG BUCK'S 185p ANNIE POWER 176 ZARKANDAR 174 CELESTIAL HALO 174 MONKSLAND 174 QUEVEGA 174 THOUSAND STARS 173 REVE DE SIVOLA 170p MORE OF THAT 170p SAPHIR DU RHEU |
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Dreadful ride from Sam there. Putting the gun to his head asking him to lead that far out. Very poor.
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I think he'll come in for criticism, he did look rather nervous before the race, never seen BB that prominent
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