Hopefully Barry's available for the ride then!! I thought the pair of them ran perfectly well over the weekend. Likely there is more to come from both of them. But I really couldnt understand the negativety over jezkis run compared to the 'excitement' towards MTOY win. Like AP said "It was a good start but he wants to be winning like that if heis going to be a Champion Hurdle horse". I thought if Jezki had run in the fighting fith then it would have been a similar outcome as MTOY win. Looking at the bigger picture i still dont think jezki deserves to be double the price! i think Jezki has got serious claims to reversing the form with MTOY in march. whether he'll beat the new one is a different matter!!

That's how I saw it Duffy.
Still fairly early in the season,and these new ones will all be improving-some more than others probably,but for me right now I think MTOY is ahead of Jezki as he was(imo)last season. Cannot write any of them off yet,far too early.

Yeh, fair comments. We can always find holes in form this time of the season for horses that are being primed for big races in March.

That could be some race at Christmas. I can see jezki and our conor fighting the finish with the hurricane languishing in 3rd!!!!

His hurdling definately needs to improve from sunday but last year it did throughout the season.In the supreme he was foot perfect up until the last. I suppose he will have to prove he is not just a good jumper but a brilliant one to win a champion hurdle as you say is going to be tough to win.

Hard to say whats value looking at the prices for me, but as we keep hearing that so and so needs to improve to get to the standard of HFly,then perhaps hes the value at 6/1 available odds.
I guess out of the novices from last season Jezki is the value cos hes the bigger price out of the more fancied ones, but then what about Annie Power at double figure prices, and Un de Sceaux at 20 odd??

Hurricane Fly is definitely the value at 13/2 for me.  The New One is without doubt the best value of the novices, now that TNO, MTOY and Jezki have ran (based on their runs so far this season, combined with the back end of last season). Based on his Fighting Fifth win, I cannot believe MTOY is the same price as TNO.

However, first time out, the Fly has always ran well below form.  A couple of years ago he was beaten by Solwhit and even Muirhead, last year would have struggled to have beaten Go Native (who was coming back from a long hurdles layoff) and this year was unconvincing.  If history is anything to go by, his next run will be many pounds better, and his price will come back in, so I don't think 13/2 will be there come New Year.

I have no doubt that this is a very good crop of novices, but so far none of them have had what I would call a real test in open company (its a shame RoR ran so far below form against TNO), to warrant them being shorter than the Fly.

Also, lets not forget that a few years ago, The Fly faced what was called then a very good set of second season novices.  Peddlers had won the Neptune and beaten Binocular (the current Champion Hurdle winner), Menorah was a Supreme winner who had beaten the "superstar bumper winner" Cue Card, Oscar Whisky was rated 165 and had 2 run away wins to his name and Thousand Stars had won the County Hurdle the previous year.

Admitedly, the age difference is now greater between the Fly and the second season novices, and so far my only bet is Melodic Rendezvous NRFB (hoping that will be reinvested on the day), but I think the concensus of he is past it, and one of the new breed will have him, is underestimating his ability imo.

On the bare form so far this season, Annie Power should be outright favourite.

I'm not sure what to make of Annie Power at the moment mate.

I struggled to find a reason why her price was so short before her victory over Zarkandar, but I was impressed with her.  I know she was receiving a decent chunk of weight, but she'd also receive the same allowance in the CH.  On the bare form of it, she is already rated 161, and you might as well add 7 to that because of the weight allowance, so she could be 168 already.

I think her future probably does lie further, and definitely over fences, but she is the surprise package for me so far this year.

With regards to the novices, it's what they do in March and April that will define them as a good, average or poor crop.  People (and myself included) anticipate that they will be a good crop, but at the moment we are only speculating because we don't have any reliable form between last years novices and last years Champion (I'm not classing TNO vs RoR as reliable, although it can't be ignored either).

At the time, it was Peddlers this, Menorah that etc, and it was understandable because at the time they had won their respective Cheltenham novice race in impressive fashion.  It's the same for all races, not just the Champion, where we want the young blood to come through, like At Fishers Cross mixing it with the established ones.

I think we'll know more when The Fly takes on Jezki or Our Connor in Ireland.  I can see TNO and MTOY being seperated in England, and doubt that they'd face each other before Cheltenham (I assume TNO International and MTOY Christmas Hurdle).

Think I was equallly as impressed with MTOY a I was with TNO, who were both on the face of it, more impressive than Jezki (though his was probably the most muddling race to run in).

hi JOCI

Very muddling was jezki's race on Sunday. He still travelled really well and i wouldnt say he has finished improving by any means yet. I am a big fan and i can see him running a massive race in March. Based on the supreme i do believe he could reverse form with MTOY but whether he'll be good enough to beat the others i dont know.

Buick I am not saying they cant win as strong statements like that can come back to bite one. But Jezki has been beaten at two festival and some reckon the course does not suit him and Our Connor will be trying to win the race as a five year old. In addition he beat trees in the triumph. Some people have said such and such has boosted the Triumph form but they are using the fact that they beat other four year olds to bolster their claims. I am not saying At Fisher Cross is not a good horse but people were saying he was good because he beat African Gold while others were saying African Gold was good because he ran 2nd to ATFC. Its very easy to fall into this trap especially when looking at novices. If any of the ex novices beat HF I would expect it to be MTOY but the jury is still out on his liking for the course.

well chief
Ive normally had something decent on something by now to, but this year i have only had a small bet on Jezki at 9/1 NRFB with bet victor. Like you i cannot even rule one out atm. I wasnt aware that TNO was 8/1 before his kempton run. Maybe that was to big but as you say he's had one run against a below par ROR since and hes now only 4/1. Not very appealing in terms of value id say. The same goes to MTOY. hopefully christmas will clear the picture a little!

Arkle
Ok fair points, i thought you were just ruling them out because of their age and what they achieved so far. Im not so sure it can be said in confidence that jezki isnt his best at Cheltenham. His first time there was only his 3rd ever start in the bumper, so i wouldnt be making a judgement on that single run as many horses dont win the bumper but turn out to be quite good!. Maybe your right tho if you looked at the supreme again. He didnt seem to finish as well as Champagne fever and MTOY on the face of it. Now he'd beaten champagne fever over hurdles before and then after the supreme (CF was below form after) so you could use the track as a valid explanation for the reversal that day. I dont see the track as the excuse however.I think not having a prep race had big influence. He didnt settle at all well and got stuck behind a horse for a few strides coming round the turn. He was still bang there and if he'd jumped the last cleaner i dont think he was done with. All ifs and buts maybe but i just think if he had a good run up to march this year it could be a different result with MTOY.

Im with you when looking at Our Conor. I would like to see him take in a race with more subsatance before the fez. Not ruling him out of course but he is ridiculously short based on one run against a field that are likely to make up into handicappers. Im not a fan of stats such as the 5yo one tho. There are always exceptions to the rule! He will be very interesting on his next run as long as he takes in something with bit more of a challenge. Out of all the challengers im probably least interested in MTOY atm. Not really because of the track angle but his willingness to "battle it out". So far every time he has come into a real battle he doesnt look the most willing in my eyes. Maybe it is just a bit of inexperience and with Hendo's record of getting so much improvement from his hurdlers he might not even have to come of the bridle!!

Rant over, btw.

Jasey that is what a lot of people were saying this time last year.

No many were saying that the standard of the 2013 race would be significantly higher than the 2012 race.

Well I cant remember them all but here are some that were being put forward. Zarkander who was only 5yo the previous year and would obviously be a lot better in 2013, Countrywide Flame, Cinders and Ashes, Grandouet, Darlan, Trifolium and god knows how many others trained by NJH but probably included Oscar Whisky.

You could also say it franks the MTOY form to a far greater extent

Yeah, I realised shortly afterwards when I looked and saw it was a novice chase!! Nothing like making a tit of yourself!!

Surely, Annie Power's stated target of the 3 miler at Christmas makes it unlikely she'll end up in the Champion Hurdle? Can anyone remember a Champion Hurdler running over 3 miles before taking part in the Champion?

It's no wonder they were last and 2nd to last that year