2011 may have looked good at the time but in hindsight was very average.  Peddlers and Oscar mentioned above. Binocular and Solwhit never made the race!!!!!!!! Menorah never won another hurdle race and was beaten further at Punchestown by HF to enhance my thoughts on Irish form.  Dunguib finished 8th and not seen for 3 years.

You maybe correct re this race but HF was 7 in 2011 and is 10 now.  I will be very surprised if he wins and I expect Our Connor to reverse Irish form here at Cheltenham.  Whether that is good enough to beat TNO and MTOY we'll have to wait and see.  Def think AP and UDS would be thereabouts.

Whatever way you look at it,HF has been the best hurdler at Cheltenham over the last 3 years.
ROR the 2nd best.

Only subsequent events show us how good a race really was....2011 we now know was poor.

As were 2012 and 2013.

No,i don't think that HAS to be the case Duffy.
Not always.

buddeliea 17 Feb 14 20:56 Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 10,140 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog
But should we not be judging a race on how it was at the time and the form of the horses going into that race??


I learnt to judge form in the season itself, everyone knocks the previous years Champion Hurdle form (or Gold Cup form) the following year. Many horses (especially ones bred for chasing) have only one season at the peak over hurdles before it declines.

Best to judge a horse season by season, not expecting them to maintain their level from the past season. Lots of the chaser bred horses will fill out and lose some speed and hurdling fluency. Hendo expressed that fear for MTOY and why he may have gone chasing this season.

Out and out hurdlers like Fly & Binocular managed to keep high level of form for many seasons.

Have been away for a little over a day and came back to 126 new posts!

I think that underlines the level of frustration we all feel about the UDS debacle, to which I have a few last things to add:

I have not backed UDS or AP but do feel the race will lose some lustre if both don't run, and considerable lustre if neither do. Both have shown that they are more than good enough to be in the race, and both add an extra level of intrigue (tearaway front-runner, and top-class mare). With specific reference to UDS, what really galls me is the c**p we are being fed about him: he did not have a hard race the other day, and he does not need to find a stone to match HF. He also looks an incredibly uncomplicated front-runner, who, as racingguru pointed out a few pages back, would either prove good enough or not when trying to do his thing out in front. Who honestly thinks running in the Champion and (potentially) owing would adversely affect his development?

The other thing that really galls me is that I believe Mullins (as do the bookies) believes HF is his number one chance of victory in the Champion Hurdle. But that he's scared to run them (and especially UDS) is not because he thinks they will beat HF, but he thinks UDS might go too fast for his old friend and (in so doing) set a pace that his rivals will enjoy. This is doubly deceitful then; he is protecting the interests of the apple of his eye while lying to owners and the betting public regarding his motive.

With particular reference to UDS, I had watched him all season and liked him but in my heart of hearts I didn't think he'd be good enough to win this year's race. That changed on Saturday when I watched him hack round and find an instant change of gear to double the gap between him and a decent yardstick in less than 200 yards. Ruby pinched him briefly after the last and he took off, showing an extra asset that we hadn't seen before.

As a few others do on here, I honestly believe this is the best Champion Hurdle I have ever seen and any one of the top seven (if AP and UDS are included in that seven) could win. I'm not saying I think UDS will win, but he could. If he was trained by anyone else, he'd be in the race.

I have always been slightly on the fence about HF. I have never doubted his greatness but the way he has been campaigned by the man at the helm has always tempered my enthusiasm to some extent. Many will think this ridiculous, but this latest twist in the tale has tempered my enthusiasm still more to the point that I actually hope he doesn't make the frame in March.

duffy 17 Feb 14 21:01 Joined: 28 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 12,108 | Blogger: duffy's blog
Only subsequent events show us how good a race really was....2011 we now know was poor.


You forgot 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012 & 2013 Champion Hurdles were also poor going on subsequent events.

Small thing duff last yrs CH had Cinders & ashes the 2012 supreme winner who of course hasn't gone on to do much either ...the ch hurdle always looks like a grt race because of the novices coming up but then subsequently horses involved  fail to continue winning races...I'd argue the 2011 CH finished Peddlers Cross he had a hard race that day but he had looked a v good horse that season. Oscar Whisky won his fair share of good races afterwards albeit over slightly further. It's a real shame though if UDS and AP are not in the field

shockster 17 Feb 14 21:14 Joined: 26 Oct 05 | Topic/replies: 1,141 | Blogger: shockster's blog
CV - Do you think the Fly is as good at 10 as he was at 7 and will he need to be?

I think he takes his racing very well, I don't think he is extended much in 90% of his races and I think missing Cheltenham as a 5yo and 6yo probably means he has a few hard miles on the clock.

I think he is a different horse now than when he was 7. He was sweating up and running very free in 2011 when he won, yet he still managed to win the race.

These days he seems a total professional, like Ruby and he have a great relationship now and Ruby can ride the race he wants without worrying about Fly settling etc.. So the energy he'd expended in the preliminaries and early part of the race in 2011/12 he now saves. I think he even saves it all the way up the straight too, he seems to just do enough to win now which is exactly what you want a horse to do, use his energy wisely.

People usually focus on his Champion hurdle runs as their way to pick holes in him. Which is fair, it's common over the years for English to underrate Irish form. So they focus on Cheltenham.

Fly was as I said too free in 2011, 2012 he was nowhere near his best as his problems and 3 missed engagements prior to January told, he again was on his toes and sweating up. 2013 Ruby made the mistake to not give Rock on Ruby too much rope again and bustled Fly along briefly to keep tabs on the front group. They all had gone far too quick through the middle of the race and Fly outstayed them in the end.

So really he's only been able to run one race where he's fit and been relaxed and settled enough and Ruby didn't give him the best ride. As he said himself, 2012 and 2013 he made 2 different mistakes. 2012 he was too confident and was worried more about AP on Binocular and when Fly was not at his best he couldn't make up the ground to the front 2. Then last year it was the reverse, he didn't want the same thing to happen again.

I think now he has total confidence in the horse and I think he knows Thousand Stars will run and he won't be worried about the front unless Jezki kicks on and he's ready to track that. He'll be held up and come tanking down the hill to the 2nd last and then kick off the home turn with injection of pace which leaves his rivals needing to decide wait to challenge coming to the last or go with Fly now.

Fly has never been outbattled in his career either, never been passed his defeats came when not being able to get to the winner, not the other way around.


I just don't think the 2nd season novices are really that great tbh. Our Conor is the one who will improve but probably not enough to win this year. I think a 170 is good enough to win this really. Fly is 8lbs clear of TNO & MTOY on ratings.

CV- A great defence of HF. However, I disagree about this year and am happy with my own reasoning. March 11th will answer the ultimate question. You may even take my lay.

Everyone should go with their own judgement, I don't know how racing would be if people backed what other people fancied for the big races like this.

For me the key is Fly has the best form this season, 2 convincing wins over grade 1 winning horses like Our Conor & Jezki in grade 1 races. TNO & MTOY have average wins in the Fighting Fifth and Bula, where the proximity of the 2nd placed horse holds form down, neither of those convinced. Then they just had a match in the Christmas Hurdle, with the 3rd not acting on the ground and coming 5th on his next start on soft ground in a handicap hurdle at Musselbrough.

TNO & MTOY are fancied because they haven't been beaten by Hurricane Fly yet like they would have been in they had traded places with Our Conor & Jezki.


Anyway that's my take, I'm pretty bullish about Fly this year again. There is still absolutely no weakness in the horse as far as I can see. His consistency is quite simply stunning, he's only lost 3 races and one of those he was injured in when last of 3, the other came as a 4yo in France.

Maybe but HF can win with no pace or with a fast pace.

JEZKI will ensure a decent pace that will suit all entries.

At this level with the likelihood of improvement still to come from both UDS and Annie Power it strikes me that if Mullins does put all his eggs in one basket that will be the absolute definition of arrogance. He may feel that The Fly is the best out of the three but he simply cannot know it for certain because they've never met on a race course and there is no collateral form to go on.

Other than that.

Don't forget the beast that is Thousand Stars.

People worrying about whether there is a pacemaker in the Champion Hurdle....one has to scratch his head at the big deal being made of this

Its impossible to know how good Annie Power is, and i dont think anyone can categorically say she 'aint good enough for the Champion Hurdle'.

But I dont think she would have the pace to take on some crack 2 milers.

Don't think its cut and dried yet.