RSA 2014

Oh no, another antepost grey favourite in the RSA!  That's served us well at this stage in the last few years

I see him as the most likely winner, but imo I'd prefer a more battle hardened one in the RSA.  Not many would have predicted Boston's Angel or Lord Windermere in the last couple of years.

The obvious race for Djakadam is the JLT. Cant see Ballycasey in the four miler.

this is 1 of the hardest races of festival if u ask me I still remember one knight hitting most fences an still beating jair du crotchet this race is wide open imo this  year

I agree Budd, Cooldine Mark 2... Getting him there in one piece is the problem. I was very worried about his lack of experience but not nearly as much now given how well he jumped. An RSA will obviously be a different kettle of fish but what impressed me was how smart he was when he got in tight at a couple, and when he meets them right he wings them.

Bit of straw clutching Arkle.

Chief,
im glad you laughed after that comparism with Grand Crus,made me chuckle as well mate

Yes Slabster, main concern is getting him there. He makes it I will be ultra confident.

Haha, Budd, I include Dynaste as he was fav this time last year

I don't think it's that cut and dry at the moment.  The Irish ones are all pretty close in Morning Assembly, Carlingford Lough, Don Cossack and Ballycasey all being within 4 or 5 lengths of each other in their races so far.

I still see the stamina test in the RSA being more down Morning Assembly's and Carlingford Lough's street than Ballycasey's, but everyone entitled to their own opinion.  I know some on here are on at a price, so well done, but I think he's plenty short enough at the moment.  He did look very good the other day, but the RSA will be a completely different test to a 3 runner race over 2 and a half miles imo.

Doubt he was near 100%,lot more to come.Will stay all day this one,was going away after the last on Sunday.
Think he some way ahead of the others personally.
Possible I am underestimating the English form,but I don't think I am.

Forgot about Dynaste, glad he aint trained by Pipe!!

Rocky Creek won it last year and missed Chelt.  2012 Invictus beat Bobs Worth with Silviniaco Conti in 4th but was injured.  However didn't seem to be a bad trial did it?

^^^^^ On about Reynoldstown Chase.

I'm sure Alberta's Run won the Reynoldstown Chase and went on to win the RSA....and bust a long bad trend for that race

Personal view is English are well below Irish in this, not surprising really as nearly all RSA winners are Irish Bred and with Ricci & Giggenstown spending lots on keeping our chasers at home.

Smad Place just isn't an RSA winner for me, 2l defeat of Sam Winner in receipt of 3lbs. Sam was a 20/1 shot going into Saturday and hardly looked anything special this season. Also both are French Bred.

Ballycasey has always been highly thought of and he's a stong stayer, 3m and good ground will see improvement. I am a Don Cossack fan and think he ran a good race on Sunday. Carlingford Lough has been on the go a long time so would have to give him a miss in an RSA.

Morning Assembly will improve again from his experiences at Christmas, but losing Ruby Walsh is a blow.

Ballycasey & Morning Assembly are the two for this.

Slightly off thread but mention of Dynaste reminds that in the last 10 years the Pipe's have had 6 horses start at less than 2/1 in non handicap races at the festival and they were all beaten!

To me Smad has improved with every run. Is a out and out 3 miler, loves Cheltenham he may get done for a bit of toe if it came up quick but apart from that, I really like him and if it comes to a grind which many RSA's have I'd have him on my side all day

It's no coincidence I think that both HT and SP both won on saturday in gruelling conditions.

Id fancy Morning Assembly if its a case of grinding it out,but if Ballycasey turns up I really don't see a grinder type getting near him to be honest.
If im wrong about the English, Corrin Wood has impressed me most, particulary with his jumping from the front.

Not worried about Ballycasey at all Budde. Think the fact he has been undercooked/prepared for the RSA is being underestimated. As someone mentioned below, in the interests of the horse, I think he would be better served in the JLT pver 20f and then onto Punchestown for the 3mile Novice.

Nah, he's no jewson sort. No chance.

I think anyone not on ballycasey would like to see him in any race but the rsa

I reckon Alleged you have hit the nail on the head. The 25s look lovely now but my worry it is a grinders race.

Indeed.

Maybe a grinders race of course,but my thoughts are he will prove different class.
And even if it is a grinders race,whose to say he cant do that anyway??

yep...you can be a grinder and be classy too...BW most recent winner to fall into that category.

More boll1x alleged, budde, arkle. Might aswell call everyone a pocket talker for having a different opinion then.

You are aware the race is just 4 weeks away and you can still get 6/1 about this certainty, right?

Where is the 6/1 sint?

FWIW, he's still my nap of the week.

All he does is stay - RSA is perfect  for him

Budd, I'm slightly surprised by your stance on this one (maybe because you have a 25/1 voucher?).

I'm not sure how you can crab Champagne Fever for not winning a 2m chase, when Ballycasey has only won at 2m and 2.5m.  Also, Ballycasey has never won a PTP or a hurdles race over 3m, and has never ran at Cheltenham.  At least Champagne Fever has won at 2 seperate festivals over the minimum trip.

I really like Carlingford Lough in this.  I thought he ran really well last time out, over a trip well short of his best, and I'm convinced he'd of finished 2nd to Ballycasey.  Quite a bit different in the RSA to a 3 runner race over 2.5 miles.

I think this is another that will really split people.

Couldn't have Many Clouds for this at all, he'd have to go put up a big performance in the Reynoldstown to change my view but I'm pretty confident the English Novice Staying chasers aren't anything close to the Irish. I'd have MA, Don C, CL & Bally all ahead of the English.

Race is usually won by an Irish horse unless you get a high class horse with form from AB/Neptune the previous year ala Bobs Worth or Denman.

The last time Ballycasey ran at 3m, Morning Assembly beat him by 7 lengths.

Many Clouds would need to start the night before

All about prices Chief.
My stance on Cfever has always been his chase form against his price, coupled with him not being a definite runner all season.
Yes,i get what you say about distances,but I have no problems with Cfever over 2m or Ballycasey over 3, so that aint a bother.CF has proven form at 2m(not chasing though),BC anyone can see is a stayer.
Ballycasey was available at 25,some have got bigger I believe?,CF best price I believe was 8.
That's the big difference for me.
Of course i post according to my bets sometimes,dont we all?? but I do genuinely feel that Ballycasey is a class above,but its only an opinion.
CF may be a class above,i do recognise that,but I aint so confident about him as I am about BC.

As for Morning Assembly. I have backed him as well(after reading cv's post),like CV I think hes a real RSA type,and if im wrong about BC I am well happy to have him as back up.

6/1 after the race CCM. 5/1 on here at the mo.

Thanks Ballydoyle. Hopefully this is another Our Conor moment for you.

Excellent points WellChief. Plenty of negs there, in my opinion.

You love the Our Conor moment eh Sint? Dynaste, Pont Alexandre as banker lays never get a mention...neither does the new one 16/1 lord Windermere 33/1 to name but 2...just our Conor...I'm sure many clouds has a chance with your hard earned on son. Best of luck

You never put those up before when prices were available to be fair, and if you laid Our Conor at his day of race price on here then that would have wiped out any lays you had, and more. Keep up the disparaging remarks Mr.Freebet Pro.

You see the problem here Sintonian is that you like to guess. You guess what I've done or what I've had on etc and seemingly if it hasn't been proved to you or a couple of others who are on here day in day out night night out talking about the same horses day in day out night in night out then it hasn't actually happened.

You have now guessed that laying Our Conor "wiped out any lays I had".

Is this since time began?
Is this for the whole of the 2013 festival?
Are you now guessing that I laid a 4-1 shot at the same amount as 2 11-8 shots? Wouldn't that be foolish?
Was there only 3 lays at the Festival for me?

As for the freebet pro...once again, it is simply common sense to take advantage of all concessions you have. If my horse doesn't run and I get my money back that is, to my understanding anyway, a good thing. It means, it simple english, I haven't lost a penny on that horse in the particular race in question.

Now, this year, there is a thread under stevo1 where I have put bets up, just so there is no misunderstanding because I am simply tired of adding to a winner's thread saying words to the effect of "nice one had 16-1 myself well done to xyz also" and then to be hit with "prove it" etc. It's boring. 

And yes, there are a few selections in several races. But they won't all run will they Sintonian? And if a couple don't run then the majority are covered with a free bet or money back. Does that affect the other horses I have selected? Of course it does as they will be cut in price. But you go and look at the prices of some of them when they were put up and then have a look on the day at the prices they will be and since you like guessing, you can guess how many were traded out for a guaranteed profit. Even now there are some tidy prices on there compared to the market at present but they will keep getting shorter. But that's not to say they will all get laid off but I will update the thread at the time, just so there is no confusion for you and 2 others who seem to follow me around. For example, Silviniaco Conti at 40-1 has been laid off for 3 times the stake.

Now, some can go "well I've taken a gamble and have only picked one horse in a race". Good for them.

For me, it's all about profit and at the prices offered by bookmakers long before the event starts, if you are smart, as a few guys on the aforementioned thread have been CV Byrne, stevo to name but two, you cannot lose at the Cheltenham Festival.

If you would like to put your selections up on stevo's thread we can assess how good you are but until then, please stop guessing at what certain people did or did not do and concentrate on your own selections.

Oh boy.

I'll stick to the evidence. Not interested in anything else.

Cheers Budd, apolgoes if my post came across a bit ar$sey, wasn't the intention.

I get what you say about the price, being that you're on at good odds, but I suppose that I am looking at their respective prices now.  Bally is top price around 5's and Champagne Fever was 4's the other day, so only a point or so between them, and I wouldn't say the RSA was any easier than the Arkle at the moment.

I can see about 4 or 5 with really strong chances in the RSA, whereas the Arkle I can only see about 2 or 3 at this stage.

I could easily see Ballycasey being near the head of the Gold Cup betting next year, whereas for some reason I couldn't see Carlingford Lough or Morning Assesmby, but for some reason I prefer their chances (at the current odds) in the RSA.

I put up a negative for Bally, in that he has never ran at Cheltenham, but I suppose Morning, Don Cossack and Carlingford haven't either, so they balance each other out.

On another note, and a massive schoolboy error on my part, when a few people (CV et al) put Ballycasy up at 25's and was saying what a good price he was, I was getting him confused with Ballyhaunis.  He is another Mullins / Ricci combination, who I backed in the Coral Cup and finished well down the field a few years ago, and I thought there was no way he was going to win an RSA.  If I would have known that wasn't Ballycasey, I may too have been sitting on nice voucher now

oops!!

No offence taken mate,like I said we all talk up our bets,and I can be guilty of getting a tad carried away if I have a voucher!!
I do try and keep it all into perspective though.

The RSA Chase....

18-21    Nov Hurdling last year
Last 11    Won or placed in Grade 1 or 2 Chase
Last 7    7yos
Last 20    No winner aged 9+
33 of last 36    Aged 7 or 8
Last 14    Ran at least 3 times over fences
Last 50    Ran in same calendar year
24 of last 26    Won or 2nd LTO
19 of last 21    Traditionally NH bred
Prominently ridden do well
Forget ex flat horses

I like Ballycasey (backed at 10-1) despite only having 2 runs, trained by a man with a decent record in this and won the right trial. By Presenting so you would think 3m on good ground would be right up his street but beat convincingly by Morning Assembly over hurdles and wonder how close Carlingford Lough would have came if he hadn't got ridden of AP. I also wonder about Morning Assembly in line with this horse also as he beat him over Christmas. However Carlingford Lough has only won 2 out of 13 chases and for this reason is passed over. I do have a nagging feeling that having backed Ballycasey and Morning Assembly (16-1) whether their lines of form with Carlingford Lough may show them up next month. Hopefully not. I also backed Ballycasey thinking he would have had 3 runs by now and also assumed Morning Assembly would have ran in February. I think it's a huge mistake not running him in a trial and history tells us this with the last 50 having ran in the same calendar year.

I have backed another 2 - Shutthefrontdoor (25-1) and Bright New Dawn (33-1). The first I don't think will turn up and heard that he wasn't right when bombing at Chelts in December. They are trying to get a run into him but not keen on the ground 4 weeks before the Festival. Touch and go whether he runs in this or the Handicap on day one especially as the owner has C Lough. Bright New Dawn is also by Presenting and one whom Dessie Hughes has raved about previously. Indeed has form with Champagne Fever (beat 2 lengths) and Jezki (beat 8 lengths). Did too much too soon in the Topaz on ground that wouldn't have been ideal and may possibly show far better over the trip on good ground.

Bright New dawn is the most gorgeous looking horse and looks like a 3 mile chaser

Gevrey Chambertin pitched in at the deep end for his chase debut tomorrow...

Stable in cracking form as well for just about the first time all season.

Just saying...

Not sure BND will be going to the festival tbh. Interesting prep on Sunday if it's the RSA as well....

Yeah I see he's in for 2m1f which doesn't scream out RSA to me

it might be a smokescreen

His recent runs have suggested he doesn't quite get 3m to me. He's entered in all 3 at Chelts and I would say JLT looks most likely.

I'm expecting a big run from Gevrey today...he's the class horse in the race for me and as the latest edition in the grands crus, dynaste saga, a big run on debut is how the script goes, what happens subsequently is the real poser....he's even won the same haydock race as the other two and just happens to be a grey too.

I just wonder if his delayed start to fences could be down to the fact that the other two, after starting before christmas, just couldn't carry the form through to cheltenham although admittedly Dynaste bounced back at aintree....he's missed the christmas period and perhaps they are hoping that after today he could put in a performance with the exuberance as the other two did in the feltham at the festival itself.

The market suggests a degree a confidence.

alleged your just a prat,as ive said,answer me the question..did you ever think champagne fever was going to run over 2 mile 5 on heavy ground you d1ckhead !

Yeah Duffy, he is an interesting one.

Pretty bold decision to run him in his first chase this far in to a season, but he has got his ground.  I think he would need it on the soft side if he was to worry those at the head of the RSA market; but it wouldn't surprise me at all if he won today.

Backed him in the bumper a few years ago after he hosed up at Ffos Las, but didn't turn up.  The only worry is that the only two big races he's had (Martin Pipe at the Festival and G1 Novice Hurdle at Aintree) he was pulled up and beaten 33 lengths.

I think the horse had a couple of minor issue Duffy hence his late start to fences.

Agreed...as I suggested, he is very much like the previous 2...in that along with being grey, exuberant and winning the same race as the other two at haydock...he's also just as much as an enigma too!!!

Like you, it wouldn't surprise me if he won today, and won well too...that's what the script says as a pipe poser going into the RSA would be the 3rd year running and par for the course

Ahh sint.....I didn't know that in all honesty...scuppers the deliberate delay a bit then.....curses!!! I thought I was being clever there.....should have known it didn't suit me

He's a fully brother to Grands Crus, so he's one to scratch for the RSA now   He did cost 150,000 euros as a bumper horse as well, so they must have ambition plans for him though.

*full brother

Re: Bright New Dawn, wouldn't surprise me if he was aimed at the Powers Gold Cup.

Ballycasey available with ladbrokes at 7/1 for 15 mins there.must know something no one else knows....

I sincerely hope not!

you can only get 25 quid on ! frail horse !

They were 16/1 Faugheen when everyone else was 12/1! Contemplated on a number of occasions going in again when they did but had enough on anyway at the time. Wish I had now!!

I went in again at that point, it was a bit bizarre how he won his second novice hurdle on the bridle and they pushed him out. They kept him at 16's for a few days too before they cut the price again.

Maybe they were just taking a strong stance. Fair play to them if so and for not cutting like all the other sheep do.

To be fair I think that's right, not everyone has been impressed with his jumping this season.

Clearly no complaints from me, at least at this point anyway!

They layed max 25 quid at 7/1, they just do these little price boosts like last year as a marketing plot. They were 7/1 Brazil for World Cup from 5.15 today, the max bet was a tenner. They're a joke outfit.

Carlisle if you are their number 1 we can discuss before the match at the molineux if you want

yeh last game of season,ul be going up and we will be going down,but il be there !

see if your so brave when not behind your computer screen....

listen im no gob**** so i hope you will back yourself !

I,ll come to the walkabout as its the only pub that accepts away fans

is that right,dont need to go into pub though eh !

you,ll have to west midlands police will make sure you lot are in the pub for your own safety

is that right,a bet ya we bring more away fans than you did up here !

lol you are having a laugh, I hope you bring more than you took to Walsall

you,ll enjoy seeing a proper ground with fans in it

honestly we will bring a couple of thousand,more if the game means anything !

well I hope you do coz we are aiming for 30k last game of the season, we took 1500 to your place on a tues night

Correct CVB...I can't get more than a tenner on with ladblookes as it is!

i know,we should have beat ya,our fans are pissed off with our owners and the club is on a slippery slope,but fans do turn out for big games,we took 6000 to sunderland a few week ago and just under 5 to preston last year,anyway back to the arkle !

RSA actually dickheads. O'Faolains dumped on your Gevrey Chamberpot I'm afraid lads.

my argument was about the arkle with alleged..idiot

how dare this clown try to interrupt our CF arkle argument with a bit of footie banter thrown in for good measure

Don't care what you 2 clowns were talking about - read the thread title cretins.

lighten up eh

Before the market was suspended Sam Winner was trading a point shorter price than Le Bec. Ridiculous.

What do people make of Corrin wood for this? Having done the trends he's a standout and I've just gone and watched his last two chase races as unfortunately I hadn't been able to see him.

First things first, I don't think I've seen a better jumper of fences in the 3m sphere all season. He's bold and can gain a good stride of two at each fence, he's that good.

Having said that I've been left with one or two niggling doubts. Firstly, he jumped quite right at warrick, more so than at catterick. That's fine in a 3 or 4 runner race but will it adversely impact his chances in a bigger field at chelt?

Secondly, does he need if softish? Whilst he's definitely not a TDS who needs it so bad the other horses are wearing armbands, he did appear to ku eyes to have a slightly pronounced knee action.

Finally, his he good enough and for that matter, are any of the English? Take one look at the RP ratings and an English horse is as good as home and hosed. I just went to look at the Timeform top 10 but couldn't find on their new website. He got stuffed on a number of occasions over hurdles by ok horses but no world beaters. I know in the past not being a good hurdler hasn't been an issue but feel that has changed a bit recently.

I'm a little confused about this beast and any other thoughts would be appreciated

@Tory re Corrin Wood -- another worry is that he was entered for the 4-miler which might be taken to mean he has a touch of the slows.

And i'm not sure Grade 1 chasers is really Donald McCain's bag. I don't recall any in recent years anyway. But CW has looked good so far, what puts me off is his style of running. He has to lead.

Never been tested at Graded level....last 11 of this all won or placed in a graded chase. Apart from that a good profile. Leading is a good thing in an RSA. You want to be prominent, unlike in an Arkle

yes, but he has to be leading, and he goes a good gallop. Will have to have some engine to sustain it all the way.

What are your picks for this race Ballydoyle and Sintonian?

I've placed ante posts on :

Ballycasey 10-1
Morning Assembly 16-1
Shutthefrontdoor 25-1

And to be honest, not confident about any of them. The last one won't show as they have Carlingford Lough who I might just go in for as he has taken care of Morning Assembly already, who was 7 lengths ahead of Ballycasey in a 3m hurdle.

Have had some nice early calls on the RSA in the past - Denman at 7s, Bob's Worth at 10s, Boston Bob last year :(

But this year I just don't get it. I keep looking at the race waiting for some clarity to come to me like a magic eye picture, but this year it is just staying fuzzy.

Same.

Roger, I backed Just A Par originally at 25/1 to Win. He now won't run. My main bets now are Many Clouds and Le Bec, 25/1 & 20/1, both eachway. Also had a saving stake on Wonderful Charm some time ago as he is clearly PFN's best novice chaser. I need one of the above two to place to break even, bit of profit if it is Many Clouds as he is my main bet at bigger odds.

Not impressed with any of the Irish horses thus far, would go with Morning assembly of the lot but he has no prep which this race has never been Won before without one.

Thanks for pointing out the graded chase thing Bally. I do know that for some bizarre reason thought his last was a grade 2!! Will redo the stats

I think blinkers have made Annacotty, will he go here or the handicap chase, lto at Chelt he unwisely got into a right duel early on and still stayed there until the end..

Corrin Wood (IRE) gr g 2007 Garuda (IRE) Allstar Rose (IRE)

Aged 7 Y
Irish bred (or French bred 5yo) Y
Finished in first 2 last time Y
Posted an RPR of 150+ last time out RPR 159
Had last run between 24 and 55 days ago 60 Days
Run in 3 to 5 chases Y
Finished in the first 3 in all completed chase starts Y
Finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase N
Won a chase at a left-handed track this season Y
Won over at least 2M 5F Y
Ran no more than 10 times over hurdles & never run on the flat Y
Officially rated 136+ over hurdles N
Irish trained that finished in first 2 in PJ Moriarty and/or Topaz Novice Chase N
Finished in first 3 in Feltham, Reynoldstown and/or Berkshire Novice Chase N
Ran in 2013 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle N
Trained by Willie Mullins or Paul Nicholls N

Trends Hit 9/16

Sorry 8/16, Been a long day.

Mendip Express ruled out of festival.

Where did you hear that Sint?? Got Foxrock for the 4 miler so bit less competition if that is right. All these horses falling like flies atm

Ran like a drain LTO for a start