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Howdi
04 Apr 13 08:34
Joined:
Date Joined: 13 Oct 04
| Topic/replies: 29,355 | Blogger: Howdi's blog
Fun looking back how it all unravelled.....quite a few at the head of the market did the business. Thought you might like to take a look (saved from Oddschecker May 2012)


Supreme Novices Hurdle - Winner  2013-03-12

Favourites: Don Cossack (8) , Waaheb (16) , New Years Eve (20) , Pique Sous (33) , Doyly Carte (50) 
Paddy Power  Stan James  William Hill   
 
Arkle Trophy - Winner  2013-03-12

Favourites: Simonsig (10/3) , Captain Conan (14) , Montbazon (14) , Oscars Well (14) , Cinders And Ashes (16) , Tetlami (16) , Arvika Ligeonniere (20) , Colour Squadron (20) , Galileos Choice (20) , Trifolium (25) , Vulcanite (33) 
Bet 365  ****  Bet Victor  Paddy Power Stan James  William Hill   
 
Champion Hurdle - Winner  2013-03-12

Favourites: Hurricane Fly (6) , Rock On Ruby (8) , Simonsig (10) , Spirit Son (12) , Grandouet (14) , Zarkandar (14) , Cinders And Ashes (16) , Darlan (16) , Oscar Whisky (20) , Binocular (25) , Peddlers Cross (25) , Alderwood (33) , Cotton Mill (33) , Grumeti (33) , Hisaabaat (33) , Thousand Stars (33) , Trifolium (33) , Midnight Game (40) , Overturn (40) , Balder Succes (50)  - Others  50 or more
Bet 365  Sky Bet  Totesport  ****  Betfred  Sporting Bet  Bet Victor  Blue Square  Paddy Power  Stan James  888sport  Ladbrokes  Bodog  Coral  William Hill  32Red Bet  Betfair  ****   
 
David Nicholson Mares Hurdle - Winner  2013-03-12

Favourites: Quevega (11/10) 
Sporting Bet  Stan James  William Hill   
 
RSA Chase - Winner  2013-03-13

Favourites: Boston Bob (10) , Fingal Bay (10) , Simonsig (14) , Champagne Fever (16) , Smad Place (16) , Arvika Ligeonniere (20) , Ambion Wood (25) 
Bet 365  ****  Paddy Power  Stan James  Ladbrokes   
 
Queen Mother Champion Chase - Winner  2013-03-13

Favourites: Sprinter Sacre (5/4) , Finians Rainbow (7) , Sizing Europe (10) , Sanctuaire (12) , Peddlers Cross (16) , Flemenstar (20) , Al Ferof (25) , Cue Card (25) , Edgardo Sol (25) , Grands Crus (25) , Realt Dubh (25) , Somersby (25) , Big Zeb (33) , Menorah (33) , Rubi Light (33) , Tataniano (33) , Ghizao (50) , Kauto Stone (50) , Wishfull Thinking (50)  - Others  0 or more
Bet 365  Sky Bet  Totesport  ****  Betfred  Sporting Bet  Bet Victor  Blue Square  Paddy Power  Stan James  888sport  Ladbrokes  Bodog  Coral  William Hill  32Red Bet  Betfair  ****   
 
Ryanair Chase - Winner  2013-03-14

Favourites: Riverside Theatre (5) 
Stan James   
 
World Hurdle - Winner  2013-03-14

Favourites: Big Bucks (7/4) , Voler La Vedette (12) , Zarkandar (14) , Oscar Whisky (20) , Peddlers Cross (20) , Thousand Stars (20) , Monksland (25) , Mount Benbulben (25) , Smad Place (25) , Batonnier (33) , Cape Tribulation (33) , Dynaste (33) , Rocky Creek (33) , Sea Of Thunder (33) , Simonsig (33) , So Young (33) , Sous Les Cieux (33) , Zaidpour (33) 
Bet 365  Sky Bet  ****  Sporting Bet  Bet Victor  Blue Square  Paddy Power  Stan James  888sport  Ladbrokes  Bodog  William Hill  32Red Bet  Betfair  ****   
 
Cheltenham Gold Cup - Winner  2013-03-15

Favourites: Sir Des Champs (6) , Bobs Worth (8) , Long Run (10) , Flemenstar (12) , First Lieutenant (16) , Grands Crus (20) , Hunt Ball (25) , Invictus (25) , Last Instalment (25) , Medermit (25) , Al Ferof (33) , Burton Port (33) , Captain Chris (33) , Finians Rainbow (33) , Kauto Star (33) , Riverside Theatre (33) , Silviniaco Conti (33) , The Giant Bolster (33) , Weapons Amnesty (33) , Time For Rupert (40)  - Others  50 or more
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Report Howdi April 4, 2013 8:36 AM BST
first two favs home in the Champion hurdle

Top two in the betting for Gold Cup

Fav wins the Mares

Fav wins the Queen Mum
Report horse9 April 4, 2013 2:13 PM BST
Good post Howdi.
Where you get hurt (on ante post betting) is with the novices and not knowing where they'll end up until the 24 hour decs !
Interesting the Champ hurdle and Gold cup 1st and 2nd favs made up the forecast - I backed Champagne Fever for 2 different races before March and had to go in again when he was declared for the Supreme, interesting to note he was at the front of the RSA betting after his bumper win !
Report Howdi April 4, 2013 2:49 PM BST
if Grandouet had stayed on his feet could the betting have given the 1-2-3 Shocked
Report BarryM April 7, 2013 4:15 PM BST
Great post Howdi, very interesting. Does rather back up what I've always suspected, which is that long rang betting in the novice events is a very bad idea, particularly the hurdles.
Report Howdi April 7, 2013 4:43 PM BST
agree Barry .... come from anywhere at you in the novice events ...bigger events held up well this year and last year where first three in last years RSA were all pre season ante post favs

Bobs worth
Grand crus
(sorry he was 4th)
First Lietenant
Report BarryM April 10, 2013 12:37 AM BST
Aside from anything else, a great many horses have 2 possible targets and many (at this stage) have 3. 4 if you count the NH chase. That is never factored sufficiently into AP prices imo.
Report Orsoncart April 10, 2013 1:08 PM BST
Very interesting, I will do the same for next year in another month or so
Report shockster April 15, 2013 9:22 AM BST
Good stuff Howdi.  Just two weeks to the whitbread meeting or whatever it's called now and then the long long wait until Mid October and proper racing again.
Report Howdi October 24, 2013 6:18 PM BST
ttt interesting thread put up by one of our finest contributors...
Report Fallen Angel October 25, 2013 7:55 AM BST
@Howdi, a nice bit of self promotion Grin but very interesting post none the less. When I look at the champion hurdle market i look at the 16/1 shot and what a beast he may have turned out to be had he not so tragically met his end!
Report buddeliea October 25, 2013 7:56 AM BST
And the 12/1 shot...he was going to be some horse!!!
Report Fallen Angel October 25, 2013 8:05 AM BST
yes I was just looking at that, what a race the CH would be with Spirit Son and Darlan in the mix. Too superstars whose lights shone short but burnt brightly.

This extract from the racing post review of the supreme,

Nicky Henderson has a poor record in this event, but it´s been another cracking season so far and he held a very strong hand this year with three smart and unexposed novices. It looked turning for home as though he would have the winner as Sprinter Sacre cruised into the home straight, but he was feeling the pinch prior to hitting the last and it was his first string, Spirit Son, who rallied to take the lead there. This ex-French 5-y-o hung right to the stands´ rail on the run-in, though, and looked to be feeling the quicker ground. He couldn´t cope with the winner when it mattered, but ran a blinder in defeat and is a classy prospect for novice chasing. A return to easier ground should suit ideally.

Sprinter Sacre bravelyheld on to third and this handsome, strong-travelling performer is another that is really something to look forward to for chasing. Indeed he could well turn out the best of these over fences next season........ Grin a slight understatement
Report Howdi October 25, 2013 2:13 PM BST
Last season did seem to 'go with' the betting.
Report windsor knot October 25, 2013 11:01 PM BST
to me , great reminder that it is hard enough to pick one on the day . so competitive . nice piece howdi.
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