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tbh those are two ridiculous bets pal.... you'll get that in February 2014 (IF they run)
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emperor ming NO WAY will you get 5/1 conor and 8/1 the mullins traffic cone dont talk PISH
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You certainly won't be getting anywhere near 5/1 Our Connor, next February, however, it may not run as well next season, it may get injured (lets hope not) and any other multitude of things that can happen and basically it should be 5/1 just to run in the race let alone win it.
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The New One-CH 10/1
At Fishers Cross-WH 6/1 Cue Card-GC 25/1 Might have a bit of Sprinter Sacre for the GC as well at 20/1 just in case(Paddy Power offered me the price btw) |
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I've backed MTOY for the Champion Hurdle, will be shorter already if he scoots up at Aintree
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Yep, always have a few bets straight after (or during) the previous year's festival. So far:
The New One, Champion Hurdle, 14-1 Lord Windemere, Gold Cup, 33-1 Cue Card, Gold Cup, 25-1 Solwhit, World Hurdle, 12-1 Always get a few non-runners, but can usually get a decent position or two, e.g. this year went into the GC with Bobs worth at 12-1 and SDC at 33-1... |
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I tell myself every year that I won't have a bet at least until September but again it hasn't lasted......
Our Conor @ 8-1 for CH Bobs Worth @ 6-1 for GC Not to mention the 12-1 I have already backed on Simonsig for the KG. Most of the time these long distance bets don't work (I backed Spirit Son last year for CH and Last Instalment for GC) but you only need in every 5 to work to make a profit if the odds are good enough (backed Hurricane Fly @ 14-1 for his first CH win 11 months before the race) I also like MTOY for the CH, I really think better ground and another year of growth and he will be hard to beat. |
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I think you do the right thing, ok they may not run r at times the price may lengthen, but if you look at this years championship winners then most could have been found at this time of year(not that I did even on the day). I seem to throw money awqay on bad races and every year approach Chelt with very few A/P bets 1 this year.
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interesting stuff...i backed mtoy at 20s for supreme this year ew sowas happy enough but what could have been......he didnt get up the hill,is he guaranteed to get it next year ?
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ROR @ 27 on here - CH
Cue Card @ 25 nrfb with vic offer- GC Annie Power @ 40 nrfb with vic offer - CH |
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Q CARD Great bet@ 25/1 nr no bet , cant have rock on watsoever like annie good luck budd
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Any thoughts on al ferof for gold cup 38.0 on betfair
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Countrywide Flame - World Hurdle - 20/1 - UnsportingOdds
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I snapped up the 10s on Our Connor just because I thought it was too big.
Generally I'm much less active ante post than I used to be because there are so many alternative titles in the new and horribly watered down pseudo championship that is the modern fesitval. Our conner has no other possible target than the Champion though. Countrywide Flame is a classic case of one I wouldn't touch with a barge pole unless I knew for sure what he was being aimed at. He ran a very good race for a 5-y-o in the Champion and with Hurricane Fly being 10 next year, and Rock On Ruby almost certainly going over fences (sorry Buddeliea) there's a good case for him having another go at the Champion. He may also go over fences. Would be very interesting for the WH if targeted at it but imho that's the least likely of the three. 6-1 Bobsworth is a great snap nostaw, how did you manage that? Jealous. |
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Interesting comments Barry, with regard to Countrywide Flame, I understand the WH and the CH an on the agenda next year and NOT chasing.
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I have some ideas, but i'm in two minds whether to go through with them or not. I was buying a thing or two recently, and it was better than betting ante post with every penny i got. I'm put off ante posts by the traders who cut prices at a ridiculous rate. We are a year away from the festival and you still can't blink. It's that bad.
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I've done Our Conor at 8-1 & The New One at 8-1 both E/W champ hurdle
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had 2 x £50 Cue Card VC bet offer (free bet if NR) at 25s for the Gold Cup
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That's not a bad bet JR as even though I don't fancy his chances (despite his dam) of staying, if he remains in good form and makes the race he won't be 25/1 on the day!
As you'd undoubtedly be betting on the Festival anyhow, that free (replacement) bet offer is a good deal. PS - I see you trumpeted him for the Ryanair (and W/D with that) but what did you think of his fencing? I thought it was unconvincing and sloppy at times...I don't fancy his chances of upsetting Sprinter Sacre at all when Aintree comes. |
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If I had any influence over where he ran I would be telling them to go for the Betfair Bowl, where he would largely face inferior horses, to take advantage of finding out now (whilst he is in peak form and fully fit) whether he is likely to stay 3 miles+ in future. If he couldn't win that race then you would know.
I thought he was electric over his fences at Cheltenham and I have no worries about that as long as they front run with him. The Melling tells you nothing you don't already know other than he can't beat Sprinter Sacre as you say. Could actually be damaging to have an overly hard race against that monster. Still think many people are massively underestimating how good the horse is - long may it continue because I have smacked him the last twice at very decent odds |
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I have not even looked at any markets for next year but when I do, it will be to lay any horse trading at less than 3 on here for any race in 2014 up until November. It is 2/1 any horse running in a designated race let alone winning it. The only bet I had before Xmas this season was Bobsworth and at 5 or better I might go in again.
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JR - I agree that The Bowl would be a much better option - I just cannot see him staying on terms if he decides to make the running and Flemenstar's breathing down his neck, pressurising him into mistakes...not to mention that other thing!
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not only that N-G, it answers questions for the future without doubt
I don't fear Flemenstar at all, he's about the same as FL and SDC and I have CC well in front of both those. SS is the one though... scary as feck |
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he doesn't make many mistakes, don't know why you keep saying that
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Mitten, I hope you took the 38 on Al Ferof for the Gold Cup.
That is a huge price imo, and is the forgotten horse. I've only just stumbled across this thread and would have snapped it up if I'd saw it; he's around 20's now. Pont Alexandre for the RSA is the one that is tempting me at the moment. Found the Neptune far too sharp imo, and would have been better suited to the Albert Bartlett. He looks every inch a staying chaser, and was only having his fourth start in the Neptune. 12/1 looks fair to me, with others in the betting like Champagne Fever andThe New One who won't go for this. |
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JR - I've just watched The Ryanair again and with hindsight, you're right in the main, and I'm probably being a bit harsh on him (on this occasion) as he wasn't as bad as I'd recalled, but he's got plenty of 'form' at his obstacles in other races...though I can't be arsed getting the fine-tooth comb out
![]() He just doesn't convince over the obstacles and he's often looked like an accident waiting to happen to me with that high head-carriage - he's a bit like Long Run, though that beast always manages to stay up! Ryanair Fencing; 1. reached for it and hind legs split the birch 2. clean jump at the water 3. not a bad jump but hind legs again brush the top. 4. clean jump but slightly skewed in the air 5. " " " " " " " 6. a nice bold jump five from home 7. a good jump but again, slightly skewed 8. another good jump at three out 9. in a bit close at two out but didn't lose momentum 10th & final fence - excellent jump considering it was the business end. His fencing isn't assured for me & lacks fluency - if he gets in a pace duel with Flemenstar I think he'll be in trouble. Do you think he's a natural fencer? I certainly don't! |
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NG, I think it was his massive engine and natural ability that won him the race. I too think there are much better jumpers of a fence around.
Can't deny though that he was very impressive, and if they can brush up on his technique, he can win another couple of Ryanair's if they wanted. |
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WC - that's how I see it too, and though I'm not sure who's the better out of him & Flemenstar, I think if he's on the pace at Aintree and is pressed for it, he may end up on the floor, or commit a serious (race-losing) blunder - I hope Flemenstar doesn't give him an easy lead as his main asset (brilliant fencing) should be employed to get the most out of him, though he'll still be a sitting-duck for Sprinter Sacre after he's fended off Cue Card.
They're two smashing young chasers though they're totally overshadowed by a giant! |
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Flemenstar got no chance of beating Cue Card boys, none
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BarryM, managed to get the 6-1 straight after the race. Lasted about 20 minutes before he was in to 7-2!!
I agree with WellChief on Pont Alexandre, great shout for the RSA. Also not the biggest fan of Cue Card but he certainly improved my opinion of him with his performance in the Ryanair, but I would be backing Flemenstar aginst him in a match race over 2m4f. |
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Wellchief i managed to get few quid on at 38.0 wud of loved to get more on hoping he goes king george on way
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Tizzard already mooted he'd avoid the race if Sprinter Sacre turns up,
Might be a good option as could take in the Betfair Bowl and see how he fairs over the trip with BW/SDC/LR/CC all not running there. |
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GF - a sensible decision if somewhat disappointing as we'd all have liked to have seen Sprinter Sacre thoroughly tested over 20f.
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Cue Card would absolutely **** his pants when I go off in front and don't allow him to get into a rhythm
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While I think Cue Card was a very worthy winner of the Ryanair, I would expect Flemenstar to beat him fairly comfortably over 2.5m.
As I said, hes got a huge engine, but he isn't good enough at his fences imo against top top quality opposition |
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adults will admit on a public forum that they'll take single figs about a 5 year old to win a CH 12 months in advance?
I mean, I've always suspected it may be the case (that people would make the bet) but it just never occurred to me people would say it out loud. Now I'm gunna share something, but please don't repost it. Just between us; I like to wear ladies underwear. ![]() |
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Pops. |
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CC would get trounced by Conti in the bowl.
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I backed OUR CONOR at 25/1 for the Champion Hurdle the night before his Triumph romp (missed the 33's from the night before) , so I have a good position at present. However, I did exactly the same with Sir Des Champs at 33/1 for the Gold Cup the day before SDC won the Jewson last year, so I'm used to being "close - but no cigar".
As for the present markets, at the odds I think BOSTON BOB at 25/1 for The Gold Cup is probably the value at the mo, only beaten once, when completing, and I really liked the way he tore round the bend into the straight in the RSA, and a shame he fell at the last. |