Cheltenham Festival
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I have Been studying the form for the gold cup for the last 2 hours and do not see any other outcome than these 2 beasts battling up the hill to glory.
but which one wins?? Im torned, i cannot decide.
I love bobs worth he gave me a tidy win at last years festival, he ll give his all and will battle all the way to the line. His hennesey win was impressive and the form of that race has stood its ground all season. Everything about him screams gold cup winner. So why dont i lump in??
Well that's where sir des champs comes into equation..hes not looked overly impressive in ireland this season, but comments that have from connections have said hes been wound up gradually as the season progresses so is sure to be tuned to the minute for this race. Like he was last season when he stormed up the hill to win the jewson staying on very strongly. just watching back on that race it was very visually impressive. More so than bobs worths rsa win imo.
So whosyour winner?? I would really like to here judoricks view and for you tell me how sdc is guna get past bobs worth?
but which one wins?? Im torned, i cannot decide.
I love bobs worth he gave me a tidy win at last years festival, he ll give his all and will battle all the way to the line. His hennesey win was impressive and the form of that race has stood its ground all season. Everything about him screams gold cup winner. So why dont i lump in??
Well that's where sir des champs comes into equation..hes not looked overly impressive in ireland this season, but comments that have from connections have said hes been wound up gradually as the season progresses so is sure to be tuned to the minute for this race. Like he was last season when he stormed up the hill to win the jewson staying on very strongly. just watching back on that race it was very visually impressive. More so than bobs worths rsa win imo.
So whosyour winner?? I would really like to here judoricks view and for you tell me how sdc is guna get past bobs worth?
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if SDC goes past BW ....how will he do it by running faster on all four legs imo
Dont be silly...your entitled to your opinion...but you are way off the mark
On my Peak ratings I have SDC 6lb clear. He has an electric turn of foot on decent going and I expect him to quicken past whoever might be in front of him jumping the last. He's sure to stay and has not a single negative apart from winning a grade 2 novice at last years Festival. But as he p1ssed up in that I will forgive him
FYI, I had Cue Card 8lbs clear in the Ryan Air and SS 10lbs clear in last years Arkle, so SDC is not quite as clear as those two.
However, Bobs Worth has a whole series of obstacles to overcome from a statistical point of view, not least his trainers lifetime record of 3 from 78 with horses returning from more than 60 days off.
I said earlier if Davy Russell had not been taken ill that he would have been a major plunge. When you look at how many winners the yard have had there must be massive confidence compared to NJH who has had two odds on winners in races lacking real depth.
SDC was my NAP but the jockey situation has made me worry but I do have the horse clear and likely to improve massively for the going, Cheltenham and the trip
FYI, I had Cue Card 8lbs clear in the Ryan Air and SS 10lbs clear in last years Arkle, so SDC is not quite as clear as those two.
However, Bobs Worth has a whole series of obstacles to overcome from a statistical point of view, not least his trainers lifetime record of 3 from 78 with horses returning from more than 60 days off.
I said earlier if Davy Russell had not been taken ill that he would have been a major plunge. When you look at how many winners the yard have had there must be massive confidence compared to NJH who has had two odds on winners in races lacking real depth.
SDC was my NAP but the jockey situation has made me worry but I do have the horse clear and likely to improve massively for the going, Cheltenham and the trip
Looking at who is already engaged to ride in the race I would favour Paul townend for sdc.
bha have conti 3lb clear, SDC beating of Champion Court don't look that clever, think Bobs Worth and Silvinaco Conti will fight out the finish as I've been saying for agers. If rain does arrive think Conti won't get beat. Will skip away jumping the 2nd last and stay on strongly up the hill to beat Bobs Worth by a couple.
Opinions obviously :)
Opinions obviously :)
SDC form taking an hit just like i thought. The 3rd in the jewson from last year now rated in mid 130's with champion court finishing down the field yesterday. SDC should be 4th favourite in the betting, hype horse!
Is it really a hype horse...it doesnt beat flemenstar being a hype horse!
The forcast rain is swaying me towards bobs wortth
The forcast rain is swaying me towards bobs wortth
lol, if Jewson form is downgraded that just makes SDC more progressive this season and means I have to uprate him. But the run of For Non Stop would make me thing twice about downgrading that run, has run to RPRs of above 160 three times since now and Champion Court ran to his Jewson rating under a big weight at Ascot too, then I look again at the very fast time of the Jewson and no way would I downgrade it :)
No indeed Thieves.... I have upgraded it with confidence 
He will think it's like a road compared to the bogs he's been running on
Bobs Worth will win the Gold Cup imo. The one who will give him most to do is Silvianco Conti.
SDC will make to many mistakes and think he's over hyped. Could be wrong but we will find out.
GL to all.
SDC will make to many mistakes and think he's over hyped. Could be wrong but we will find out.
GL to all.
To me, Bobs Worth is the overhyped horse, yet to run outside of novice or handicap company and only 5 chases which is too lightly raced for a typical Gold Cup winner. Add in the absence, when was the last time a Gold Cup winner hadn't run since before Christmas? Looks like a major false favourite to me.
Me too thieves
add in NJH record of 3 from 78 with horses racing after more than 60 days off course at the Festival
major neg for me BW, too lightly raced, not had a prep, didn't run in key top class trials
looks short in the betting
add in NJH record of 3 from 78 with horses racing after more than 60 days off course at the Festival
major neg for me BW, too lightly raced, not had a prep, didn't run in key top class trials
looks short in the betting
ands as i told you all, BOBS WORTH TO WIN THE GOLD CUP. great effort from sir des champs also.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!!
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!!
could have done without the rain but fair play was the same for all
SDC traded 1.4
SDC traded 1.4
When you see it again, have a look at how he jumps the 2nd last, bottomless stamina that horse.
it needed a great horse to beat bobs worth, SDC is a good horse one but not a great one! to be fair SDC run better than i thought but just found one too good, all rise sir nicky!
it needed a great horse to beat bobs worth, SDC is a good horse one but not a great one! to be fair SDC run better than i thought but just found one too good, all rise sir nicky!
it needed a great horse to beat bobs worth, SDC is a good horse one but not a great one! to be fair SDC run better than i thought but just found one too good, all rise sir nicky!
All this talk about Bob`s Worth having to overcome the absence stat and experience stat was poor. BW had improved 11 lb to run his personal best OR of 171. This was after an absence of 9 months, and then the analysts start suggesting he will struggle after a break of 104 days.
And despite winning the Hennessy and have a higher OR than Denman after he had ran in 5 chases, questions on experience where raised. I found it rather odd.
And despite winning the Hennessy and have a higher OR than Denman after he had ran in 5 chases, questions on experience where raised. I found it rather odd.
To the OP, I agree that BW and SDC where the two stand out horses( not after timing, i mentioned this on other threads) but i favoured BW for his grit and determination, he never goes down in a fight.
I won't be with SDC next year that's for sure
the going and jockey changes done for him and they were circumstances beyond control. On more typical Festival going as in the 4 previous Gold Cups and with Davy Russell riding things may have been different. They weren't and I will not be backing him for the race in 2014
Might be Cue Card, who is a very similar horse on the form to Bobs Worth (on the line through Flight Lieutenant and the Newbury form where BW won in receipt of 7lb), but 251 is nowhere near big enough considering all the doubt. He would need good to soft at the slowest before they ran him.
the going and jockey changes done for him and they were circumstances beyond control. On more typical Festival going as in the 4 previous Gold Cups and with Davy Russell riding things may have been different. They weren't and I will not be backing him for the race in 2014
Might be Cue Card, who is a very similar horse on the form to Bobs Worth (on the line through Flight Lieutenant and the Newbury form where BW won in receipt of 7lb), but 251 is nowhere near big enough considering all the doubt. He would need good to soft at the slowest before they ran him.
Thought it was a brilliant performance by BW considering that was the first time he had ever raced on going which was worse than good to soft! I took some of the 8/1 Billy Hills were offering straight after the race. Last season there were so many good second season chasers coming through such as BW, SDC, FL, CC and even Grands Crus at that point, but I just don't see that much quality in this years novices. I think the RSA will prove to be a pretty poor renewal, and who knows what will happen with Dynaste or Benefficient. Can't see any of the opponents from this years race beating BW next year (except possibly SC), and with a less exciting novice crop coming through the only other challengers I could see would be AL Ferof or Last Instalment.
nostow
Also BW does not let Cheltenham beat him, by that i mean he grabs the hill and unlike Long Run he looks more than likely to keep grabbing that hill. I think SDC will be his chief rival next year as we enter a mediocre period for Gold Cup horses.
Also BW does not let Cheltenham beat him, by that i mean he grabs the hill and unlike Long Run he looks more than likely to keep grabbing that hill. I think SDC will be his chief rival next year as we enter a mediocre period for Gold Cup horses.
if there was no prospect of Cue Card running in the Gold Cup next year he would be bigger than 25 to 1 but there is a chance (Imperial Commander won the Ryan Air the year before winning the Gold Cup) and the price tells me it must be considered an option. Clearly he has enough ability, the question is the going and trip. Be interesting to see how they campaign him and he would be one of few that could challenge BW next year.
Other than that surely BW will be fav again next year
Other than that surely BW will be fav again next year
They will give Cue Card another go at 3m,pretty sure of that.
Decent ground at Haydock or Kempton and we will find out once and for all if hes a candidate for the Gold Cup.
Decent ground at Haydock or Kempton and we will find out once and for all if hes a candidate for the Gold Cup.
can tell you now Budd, when I do next years analysis SDC will be getting the Spanish Archer (El Bow) straight away as both Long Run and TGB did this so unless Lord Windermere, Boston Bob or Simonsig turn out to be serious rivals then BW will virtually be my selection
To be honest Judo,i dont see any of those as rivals to Bobsworth.
Conti maybe,as he fell when still going well,Cue Card if he proves he stays,and a couple that were injured in Al Ferof and Last Instalment.Aside from those i dont see any threats to Bobsworth if all well with him.
Conti maybe,as he fell when still going well,Cue Card if he proves he stays,and a couple that were injured in Al Ferof and Last Instalment.Aside from those i dont see any threats to Bobsworth if all well with him.
me too
as I say all being well BW will be my selection unless something happens.
SC would have to win the King George to enter calculations for me
as I say all being well BW will be my selection unless something happens.
SC would have to win the King George to enter calculations for me
VC non runner free bet Gold Cup 2014
Bob 5/2
Conti 8/1
al ferof 14/1
cue card 25/1
No price for Last Instalment......is he ok for next season do you know??
Gonna keep an eye on this market
Bob 5/2
Conti 8/1
al ferof 14/1
cue card 25/1
No price for Last Instalment......is he ok for next season do you know??
Gonna keep an eye on this market
I don't see any value in the market
Last Installment is a massive long shot shirley
Last Installment is a massive long shot shirley
hmmm
non runner free bet
25s Cue Card then worth it, would be much shorter if he ran as he would only run if showing he stays and the going was right
non runner free bet
25s Cue Card then worth it, would be much shorter if he ran as he would only run if showing he stays and the going was right
yep,exactly mate,and if he dont run the free bet will come in handy im sure.
Had a few free bets that came in handy last week.
few have had a pop at the offer but it suited me.
Had a few free bets that came in handy last week.
few have had a pop at the offer but it suited me.
yes me too I had the full £500 worth, will have some 25s CC then
I've just had £100 worth on two accounts. Be looking for more volunteers
yep,just had some 25.s,cannot see him being bigger at anytime,either will go shorter or just wont run.
Not sure why you would desert Sir Des Champs totally for next years GC Judo
After all you have mentioned it was the ground which scuppered his chances, unless you don`t have faith in your own ratings. Or the `horses which are placed stat` is putting you off, but shirley you must equate the ground as a leveller. No?
After all you have mentioned it was the ground which scuppered his chances, unless you don`t have faith in your own ratings. Or the `horses which are placed stat` is putting you off, but shirley you must equate the ground as a leveller. No?
BTW Cue Card will only be happy skipping along in front, is that likely in the GC?
Yes, horses placed stat is a killer for me, I will not be risking money pre-race. Maybe in running but I will be worried about the hill and the field may be even stronger next year. Denman made all virtually... if it were good ground Cue Card might skip along happily. In any case, if he makes the line up he will be much shorter than 26 on here and I will be laying him. Probably lay him if he wins the King George or something.
All in all Bobs Worth is a strong fancy, somebody will have to show smart form to usurp him at the head of the market.
All in all Bobs Worth is a strong fancy, somebody will have to show smart form to usurp him at the head of the market.
A-Gabrial
just worked out the Peak ratings for the Gold Cup and the pre-race order remains the same so it says Sir Des Champs is capable of significant improvement on good ground in a fast run race - Punchestown maybe. The rating for the Gold Cup was quite low due to steady gallop.
Nevertheless, he will be eliminated in the GC next year
just worked out the Peak ratings for the Gold Cup and the pre-race order remains the same so it says Sir Des Champs is capable of significant improvement on good ground in a fast run race - Punchestown maybe. The rating for the Gold Cup was quite low due to steady gallop.
Nevertheless, he will be eliminated in the GC next year
I agree that SDC will reach a much higher rating on better ground and he probably hasn`t finished improving. It`s a shame he is not trained in the UK with better ground available in comparison to the Irish bog.
I think he may need a rest after that tough race in the GC. He rallied really well suggesting he was busting his gut. It`s certainly a race which can make horses think about going through the pain barrier again at the track. I think this has happened to Long Run and may explain why the placed horses in the GC don`t relish the race again.
I think he may need a rest after that tough race in the GC. He rallied really well suggesting he was busting his gut. It`s certainly a race which can make horses think about going through the pain barrier again at the track. I think this has happened to Long Run and may explain why the placed horses in the GC don`t relish the race again.
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