20/1 or bigger, come on in.......

If he were my horse, I'd have a bash at the Champion Hurdle. Assuming Petit Robin is taken out (I was under the impression Nicky wanted to run it in his dad's race), Cotton Mill will be on 11'7 for the County, and winning it off that mark takes some doing. The allure of the bigger race would sway me to the Champion. I suppose I'm a little bit biased though, as I don't want to see the field too small.

I'm looking at Cause Of Causes in the Supreme at a huge price.  Is he even running?  Take out his run at Newbury and his form is pretty good and he's not got much to find with these, though you could argue he's a bit overexposed.

On racing news today cotton mill runs in County. So couldn't take any price for champion. O Reagan did say he was the mount he was looking forward to most.

I know that, still a stupid decision given the runners in the champion.

Monksfield, any chance you can give a decent priced winner ?

Should Dynaste not run in RSA, talk in Ireland Lyreen Legend will finish in front of Boston Bob. Double with Simonsig will give you your 20's

lol, why didnt you just post the video clip

houblon des obeaux def e/w bet will love the going an stays all day in either race hes enterd in

Eastlake 25/1 in rewards4racing nov h/c

Just checked his profile, he has won 4 times under odds of 2/1 and got done in a 3 runner race at 5/6. nice profile.

And the horses he beat lto

OK Tetlami 20-1 Grand Annual, with the ground softening a bit and this one looking for all the world like Bellvano revisited after finding last year Supreme a little hot and the ground a little too fast

The 2012 Triumph 1st 3rd and 4th are all rated much higher than the second in the race Hisaabaat, who seems to have only appeared in small fields this year, contrast that with all of his good runs last year and ask, is his mark not very workable

Cheltenian - Supreme
2011 Bumper winner (festival form is best) came back to form lto and seems to have gone under the radar even though there's been a positive vibe from the stable

Zuider Zee - Albert Bartlett
Was entered for The Supreme and The Neptune but looks like he's going for this.  Very classy on the flat and won't be struggling for stamina.  If he takes to hurdles he could go very well

Creevytennant Foxhunters 100/1

Lancetto - Grand Annual 46/1

Duke Of Lucca - JLT Hcap Chase 23/1

Champagne Fever - Supreme 23/1

Purple Bay - Bumper 44/1

Hunters Lodge - NH Chase 150/1


Just one winner from the above would do for me.

Ifandbutwhynot 20/1 ew


Dont usually look at stats but seein it fits so many i'll chuck em in, (using last years)

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 5 to 7 (ideally 5) X
· Carrying 10-10+ (not top weight) x
· Officially rated 130 to 140 X
· Finished in the first 3 last time out in last 70 days X
· Run at least 3 times this season & run in a handicap hurdle worth 16K+ X
· First or second season hurdlers X
· Run in 1 to 7 handicap hurdles X
· Won no more than 3 handicap hurdles (ideally won none) X
· Won a class 3 or higher hurdle X
· Finished in first 5 in **** and/or Betfair H’cap Hurdles
· Tends to be held up X
· Trained by Paul Nicholls or in Ireland

Meets 10/12 of the trends

12Mar13 1:30 (Early closer) at Cheltenham, William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle Grade 1

13Mar13 2:06 (Early closer) at Cheltenham, Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (Registered Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle) Grade 1

15Mar13 2:08 (Early closer) at Cheltenham, Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3

15Mar13 4:43 (Early closer) at Cheltenham, Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle


Has 4 entries but the 2 novice races are completely out surely and all of his races have been over 2m or 2m1 so it must be county hurdle you would think.

Seemed to need his first run of the season when a beaten fav in 3rd but as it turns out it was 2 130+ rated horses in front so prob nt as bad a run as it was thought at the time!

Then in a Novice hurdle at Newcastle on g/s beat the since very impressive and now 142 rated Eduard(2 wide margin wins and a close 3rd behind Melodic Rendevouz since), jumped and travelled well and showed guts to hold on at the finish!

Followed up that win next time out here at Chelt on soft ground(off 117) when giving 5lbs and an emphatic beating to Taneko Emery(off 112). Was hampered twice in that race and still was a very easy winner.

-Form has since been boosted massively with the 2nd Tameko Emery winning very easily on his next 2 runs and argubaly should have won the Welsh Champion hurdle and is now rated 141

-And Brick Red in 6th beaten 16l by Ifandbutwhynot giving away 1lb winning its next 3 starts and finishing 2nd in a G2 last weekend and now rated 146

Went on to go off favourite in a very warm Sandown Listed Hurdle off 130 next time out but disappointed when finishing 9th of 12 but i think it can be worth forgiving that run as the ground was very tacky and horses that were held up finished 7/8/9 so it was nt easy to come from the back

Bounced back to form last week with an easy win at Mussellburgh off 130, travelled well and quickened when asked to win by nearly 3l from Ultimate giving him 7lbs(Ultimate who was beat 8l by Swing Bowler off levels123 (And Swing Bowler now rated 138) Would probably put Ifbutandwhynot just ahead of it on revised ratings. A 5lb rise for last win does nt seem harsh and Timmy Murphy feels a race like the County will suit

Murphy told Racing UK: "The key to him is if he settles. We slowed up mid-race and I was a lot handier than I wanted to be.

"I think all those competitive two-mile handicaps like the County Hurdle will be right up his street, he loves passing horses and I think he's better left-handed."

and i think there is still some room to play the off a mark of 135 given his form with horses now rated high 130s and 140+

There is a slight worry he may not get in but represents a decent ew bet at 20/1 i think

Quito De La Roque in the Gold Cup, a genuine staying type and the race has thrown plenty of big priced winners

I liked that horse as a novice, but now I'm not convinced it's not a slowboat stayer, and without the class to win a gold Cup.

well you took most of the good rags in your previous post

As long as they run...

Good post bjg, big fan of that horse after his win against eduard earlier in the season and he has done me a few favours since.

certainly one i will be backing in the county. good luck

Cause of Causes, Supreme Novices, 33/1 FIVE places Will Hill

First off, the horse has a couple of other entries but I think it looks odds-on he'll be lining up on Tuesday. I think it says a lot that Gordon Elliot is happy to give this a go rather than keep him for a handicap, he's not one to aim too high with his entries imo.

The likely soft ground is perfect, the fast pace should suit, his best run this season was the Ladbroke obviously where he jizzed up off a mark of 142 (5th place First Avenue won the Imperial Cup yesterday in similar conditions) and he acts at the track. He ran on well up the hill from a long way back on soft ground to take 3rd in the Racing Post Hurdle back in November.

He's not a sexy pick, he's not a trends pick, it's really the 5 places that made me take a look at him. I know he's got a lot on to win a grade 1 and he's 'only' a handicapper, but look at My Tent or Yours. He's only won a handicap too! MTOY won the most valuable handicap of the season off 149 and he's at 6/4 for this race, Cause of Causes is 33/1 for winning the 2nd most valuable handicap very impressively off 142. On official ratings he's only got a couple of pounds to find on Jezki but is 8x the price.

No idea what went wrong at Newbury last time out, but if you can forgive him that he looks worth a small bet e/w with the enhanced terms and likely conditions.

I'm not going crazy am I?

Not at all, lets hope it is really soft ground for you.

Thus far:

Monkerty Tunkerty 20/1
Sirene D'Ainay 66/1

For tomorrow

Cheltenian is just simply massively overpriced @ 33/1

Track form,will go on the ground and will battle up that hill.

ive got 20/1 about fascino rustico in the bumper on wednesday and im told it goes very close indeed

I'm not disagreeing with you CR but what makes you think he will go on the ground? Am considering a small e/w bet but the ground does concern me.

Sorry Glossy i should have explained that better,i just think he'll enjoy softer ground purely on breeding,Could be wrong,But at 33/1 i think it's worth the chance.

Hisaabaat -CH - 40
monkerty T-JLT- 24
Ely Brown -PERT-22
Gallant Nuit-Fox-65
Hollow Tree-MPipe-28

Probably that order of preference .

summary justice 2.40 lightly raced venetias can run well at a price.

Fourjacks each way for me is a horse who has improved massively this season over fences. At 25/1 I think he's the each way bet of the rewards4novices race. The ground will be no issue for him and he did not look to stay the 3miles 2 races ago against Goulanes so 2m 4f is probably ideal for him. Hope he can give a good run!

Mr Watson,2m5f hurdle.

Vieux Lion Rouge @ 33/1 in the bumper.

Barbatos @ 20/1 in the Coral Cup
Good c/d form as a novice, year off and a sighter at the course over an inadequate trip for his prep.

hollow tree today beat countrywide flame last year on level weights!!!

Have Backed Owega Star at 40s, Un Beau Matin at 20s and Zamdy Man at 34 on here

Buck Magic, c&d with high cruising speed so a small bet @25/1