Zarkandar in last year's Champion Hurdle

do you not think the now healthy 6yo has more scope to improve than the 9yo?

forgiving a 5yo a run in a champion hurdle is much easier than a defending champ

In fairness though sj, HF had no obvious excuses and is the 6-4 favourite this year, whereas Zarkandar is three times the price and was sick last year in the build-up...

No HF is a real threat and especially on softish ground. I agree that not at his best last year.

But he is 9 and probably finished improving as such whilst Zark as judo says is at an age that he still stepping forward.

Graeme you are from Glasgow yes? Enough said

And you take precedent?

it's a very hard race to call, I've taken Zark ew and then gone in again with the PP offer 'money back if HF wins'

happy to get my money back tbh, would like to see something special like a thrilling race or a jaw dropping bombshell of a performance

We're all agreed then a massive reverse forecast and were all minted. Happy days.......Roll on Tuesday.

Not sure we'll get a jaw dropping performance but if either HF or ROR wins it'll mark them as up there with the best of recent hurdlers.

jaw dropping for me would be a massive speed figure like a 180 on my scale with the Supreme on the same day about 155... would make me go

last years was 173 on my scale

judorick 04 Mar 13 20:27 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 12,640 | Blogger: judorick's blog
do you not think the now healthy 6yo has more scope to improve than the 9yo?

forgiving a 5yo a run in a champion hurdle is much easier than a defending champ

Not when he finished that far in front of him, and reports are that HF wasnt at his best either last year. Zarkandar has got a lot to make up on the Fly

I would love to see Bino charge up the hill to win by 5! Bino

Plenty horses have been beaten in the Champion Hurdle before going on to win it the year after.

Punjabi for example, ran a remarkably similar race to Zarkandar last year when beaten 6 lengths in 2008, only to go on to win it the following year.

Replies: 48

tomdeane 04 Mar 13 20:28 Joined: 29 Jul 04 | Topic/replies: 1,104 | Blogger: tomdeane's blog
In fairness though sj, HF had no obvious excuses and is the 6-4 favourite this year, whereas Zarkandar is three times the price and was sick last year in the build-up...

So we're happy to take it from Nicholls that Zarkandar was sick but not happy that Willie said HF could barley work last year?
I liek Zarkandar but the idea that it s ok to put a line through Zarkandar's run but not HF's is a strange one. Bit like those who claim last year's Champion was better than HF's win because of how close Peddlers was. Forgetting of course how far back Overturn was that year when runner up last year

"I would love to see Bino charge up the hill to win by 5!"

That's what I'm hoping for. Come on Bino!

fascinating race in store hope the fly wins but dismiss zarkandar at your peril

haha sue, loyal as ever

sj:

Why would we take Willie's word when his word after HF won the Irish Champion was that he'd never been better? Very suspicious that we only heard things weren't right after the race. Nicholls told everyone about Zarkandar before he ran at all last season and has said this term that he's a different horse.

^ Also, my point is that HF is 6-4 so you'd want to be 100% certain that he is a different horse this year just to make him favourite, let alone that short!

I don't get the sick thing at all, his run in the newbury hurdle race last year was better than the kingwell run.

"He jumped impeccably and stayed on really well in the straight.

"He's the first horse in 40 years to win this race without a prep run, and that says enough in itself.

"He showed what you need to win a Champion Hurdle - stamina.

"He outstayed them and pulled up when he got to the front.

"He's going to improve a ton for the experience of the race, but time will tell."

Nicholls said: "There is huge improvement in him between now and Cheltenham. "I had him right today, but I was training him with Cheltenham in mind.

"I was worried about his lack of experience, but he's progressive and keeps winning.

"He needs to improve, but he'll definitely go forward from here.

"He worked great two days ago and he always gallops to the line."

With Walsh set to partner last season's Champion Hurdle winner Hurricane Fly at Cheltenham next month, Daryl Jacob is likely to be back on board Zarkandar.

"Daryl will ride if Ruby rides Hurricane Fly and Daryl will be waving goodbye to him on the run-in!" joked Nicholls.

That's after the betfair run last year.


"Zarkandar won at Newbury and is in really good form. He's four from four and you wouldn't know how much improvement he might make," said Nicholls.

And on the lead up to the CH.

I don't think you have to 'forgive' Zarkandar his run in the race last year in order to back him this time.

He only finished a length behind Hurricane Fly, is entitled to improve from 5 to 6, and is double the price. 

He would be on anyone's shortlist.

^
That was obviously before last years race

still very tricky to work out what is gonna happen in the race itself, tactics, pace profile, pace variation, jockeyship, luck in running (they could all bunch up on the stands rail, some get a run some don't like the greatwood)...

large spread on the variables unlike say the Arkle where everyone knows how the race will be run

very tough

why don't you look up the comments where Nicholls said he looked a shell of a horse in the paddock, was coughing after the race and had to go on anti biotics for the infection? Surely those are more important than comments taken straight after the horse just landed an ante post gamble at Newbury

duffy 04 Mar 13 21:04 Joined: 28 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 8,373 | Blogger: duffy's blog
I don't get the sick thing at all, his run in the newbury hurdle race last year was better than the kingwell run.

"He jumped impeccably and stayed on really well in the straight.

"He's the first horse in 40 years to win this race without a prep run, and that says enough in itself.

"He showed what you need to win a Champion Hurdle - stamina.

"He outstayed them and pulled up when he got to the front.

"He's going to improve a ton for the experience of the race, but time will tell."

Nicholls said: "There is huge improvement in him between now and Cheltenham. "I had him right today, but I was training him with Cheltenham in mind.

"I was worried about his lack of experience, but he's progressive and keeps winning.

"He needs to improve, but he'll definitely go forward from here.

"He worked great two days ago and he always gallops to the line."

With Walsh set to partner last season's Champion Hurdle winner Hurricane Fly at Cheltenham next month, Daryl Jacob is likely to be back on board Zarkandar.

"Daryl will ride if Ruby rides Hurricane Fly and Daryl will be waving goodbye to him on the run-in!" joked Nicholls.

That's after the betfair run last year.


"Zarkandar won at Newbury and is in really good form. He's four from four and you wouldn't know how much improvement he might make," said Nicholls.

And on the lead up to the CH.

Exactly my point. There was no mention in the build up at all. Like I say I like Zarkandar but to forgive one horse for one run and not the other is certainly to suit one's argument. That is not digging anyone out cos it seems to be the opinion of the majority

that was all said at newbury

as I said, find the post champion hurdle quotes, totally different

Yes I agree, the sick theme wasn't a constant in all the bulletins we had about the horse, they obviously had times when they weren't too concerned about it, after all and especially with a young horse, as has been pointed out,it would be a highly risky and cavalier approach to run a horse that was ailing in such a demanding race.

"haha sue, loyal as ever"

they found out he was coughing after the race and Nicholls said he 'came up light' in the paddock

last years champion is irrelevant as far as Zarkandar is concerned, he is not the same horse now as then at all

just saying if the only reason you think he can't win is because of that race you might want to have another think just in case that's not true

Nichols has always said that Zarkandar was a CH horse but wasn't for me last year. The news of the coughing in his yard came after the Betfair and tbh with the subsequent form that had been shown by Grandouet and Brampour he really should have won the race off 151.

All the paddock reports say that Zarkandar didn't look good prior to the CH - I'm prepared to accept them.

Grandouet fan at the start of the season but i've fell in love with Zarkandar

Finds loads for pressure, as tough as teak, and contrary to what many believe I think he has bags and bags of speed.

I don't think there's anything to dislike about him.

Not saying that mate I've said I liked the horse and would have to be on the shortlist. If he was sick since Newbury bit silly to run him not just in the Champion but then again at Aintree dont you think? If he was indeed that sick

the only negative i have about zark is the fact ruby is happy to jump off if he feels he has a better chance elsewhere i.e prospect wells/sam winner

I'm only reporting what I heard and read, I can't read the trainers mind and i accept what he said like I accept what he says this year

Absolutely, however, I don't think he can win because in pretty much all of his races he shows a tendency to have to make more of an effort to travel alongside others at the pace required, ROR ran all over him in the bula until falling in a hole and grandouet travelled better too before fitness told, even in the kingwell against markedly lesser lights he was unconvincing with the way he moves, with this frailty, a CH and the way the horses will quicken in that is a nemesis for a horse like this, only an opinion though.

Running him at aintree was a poor decision and probably something to do with the trainer's championship

Thats exactly my point. We'll accept what Nicholls saying regarding Zarkandar but not Mullins regarding HF last year, thats all

Wouldn't take Zarkandar's appeared lack of travelling through the race as a negative

Katchit and Hardy Eustace for example weren't the smoothest of travellers

you don't think there's any chance that this tendency you report is weighing too heavily in your judgement? what if that is not the case? I was never in any doubt that he would win any of his races and see no fraility at all, in fact I thought he barely got out of second gear at Wincanton, he jumps superbly at speed and the faster they go the better for him even if he has to be niggled... will pull more out and jump quicker than any others

I'm worried about an overly steady or stop start race more than anything

No sj I'm happy to say both weren't at their best last year but Zark was only a length down.
Given normal progression as a 6yo he makes that up and a bit

several have been beaten in the race as a 5yo and won it as a 6yo, in recent years too

only one has ever failed to defend and then regained the title

I'm worried about an overly steady or stop start race more than anything

agreed! and that kind of race will not suit ROR either

You could be right judo,he's a bloody good horse of course but my thoughts though is what we saw in last years CH when they quickened away from him is exactly what this horse is, it's a fundamental part of the horse's make-up, it's what he is, that for me can't just change,it's how this particular horse operates some horses are smooth travellers, he's a grinder, for me that's what he'll carry on being, it can't just change like that, for me when they quicken he'll always be vulnerable to that.

well I have expunged last years race from my thinking as far as he's concerned, it's an outlier, look at his Adonis win, two Grade 1 wins, International... none like last years CH

when he was sick according to the trainer

Fair enough, we'll be put out of our respective miseries in not too long now anyway

I'm relaxed about him, can't see him unplaced

it's SDc i am worried about due to possible rain and a large cash injection

I think that Zarkandar had too hard a race in the betfair hurdle last year after such a long lay off and consequently I also thought he looked tired when he fell at Aintree in his next race. This year he has had a lot smoother prep, he had a good break between the International and the Kingwell and to try and use his latest run as a basis for whether or not he can win the champion hurdle is in my opinion not the right thing to do, as it looked like he was just having a racecourse gallop. Except it was with other horses in what some people call a "race" (take note Nicky Henderson).

To date this season Hurricane Fly has beaten Captain Cee Bee 3 times, Thousand Stars twice (his next outing was to finish last of 6 in the Boyne Hurdle), Binocular (he couldn't even beat Thousand Stars), Go Native (who looked like he was travelling better than HF), Unaccompanied (who hasn't looked anything like as good as she previously has been) as well as 2 100/1 shots One Cool Shabra & Tilabay. For all the organic form students, is that the sort of form you think a champion hurdler would have. 3 facile victories against horses who all failed to win a subsequent race.

To date this season Zarkandar has beaten Prospect Wells (won a grade 2), Balder Success (won next time out), Rock on Ruby (won next time out), Mad Moose (2nd to Sprinter Sacre next time out but he did have a massive lead from the starter), Minella Theatre (won a race since but was a class 5 seller) and 10 horses who haven't either raced again since or haven't won and include Grandouet (who has now had only 1 race in the last 15 months which is the same number as the number of injuries he has had in the last 2 months)

To suggest he needs to expel more energy getting a prominent position early on is also debatable, surely that is up to the jockey and how he reacts at the start. Get him in a good position before the race even kicks off and he can be up with the pace with little energy used. Rock on Ruby was with Celestial Halo in second and third for most of the way round and then never looked like getting beaten once he went past Overturn. Those 3 horse were all in good positions, in fact Overturn was about 5 or 6 lengths in front of Binocular in last.

I also wasn't using last year as a reason to say he would win the race I was using it as a reason to say it was foolish to rule him out based on a trend when it shows he travelled as strongly as anyone from 2 out. Yes he might have been passing tired horses but surely that is the point of racing?

Michrich. I really can't see why anyone is trying to knock HF for the horses he has beaten. Hardly his fault is it? As has been said several times, all he can do is win.

He won as you would expect a potential Champion Hurdler to win each of those races.

eh, knocking HF by way of form and in bigging up zark, we're talking about, balder success, mad moose and minella theatre (won a race since but was a class 5 seller), great quote that,actually all this should be used in the zarkandar The case against bracket

all about peak potential for me i.e what they might do under ideal conditions, not what and who they have beaten in their prep

Zarks potential for me was defined on his hurdling debut, singled him out as exceptional and I still believe that.

just like I stated after one chase appearance that SS would turn out to be a monster (165 at least on that run, 175 after beating French Opera)

but they can only produce these massive efforts in championship races so predicting what they might do is more important to me than working out what they already did

nicholls has stated several times that zarkandar shows very little at home and is lazy ,saves it for the racecourse so i dont think they know how much improvement he may or may not find ,  he is not a horse who is ever going to win races on the bridle easing up ,his style of running makes it look as though  he is finding it hard work but he is only just doing enough to get the job done  ,he may not be good enough but i suspect there is a fair bit more to come when push comes to shove .

as do I Foyles, 8lb more than so far by my estimation, comfortably

but only in a race with solid, consistent pace profile

why has nicholls not put in something to make the pace for zarkandar ?

coz its not the flat foyles aiden would have had 10 entered, 4 pace makers, the likely winner, and 5 to box the favourite in

must be confident zarkandar can go with the pace ! plenty of speed in the pedigree  as an ex flat racer who is very closely related to an unbeaten arc winner pace should not be a problem !

I wouldn't be too worried about Grandeout and ROR being better travellers as I seem to recall Rooster Booster and Harchibald being better travellers than Hardy Eustace but it didn't do him much harm.

does it worry any zarkandar fans that the champion hurdle is run over a different trip and course than in the international hurdle??

Not really no.

has to be a slight worry Harry mate, I agree

will reveal how much only in the race

seems plenty of rain coming for the good of your NAP mate, even bigger cert if it does materialise

am hock deep now judo...lets hope for at least good/soft then i will be happy...but an edgy week when your best bet runs on the last day...a nice week of anxiety awaits

yes indeed, I have it permed in loads of multiples now and some small singles, hammer down on the day of the race market

National going very well mate

I gotta ask harry, what's your nap?

got distracted and posted by mistake, anyway hopefully it all goes to plan, think yours is a cracker and the opposition looks weak

ok roo its at fishers cross really hopeful...will be on rations if this one doesn't run well

yes am getting into the national myself judo...price de beu disappointing for me the other day

I'm confused as fook by the race dont fancy The Fly at the prices though 7/4 fecking no way.

yes indeed, if you read my notes that i sent, you will see I put it as a maximum lay, AS in 5 figures along with the other one, laid all the novices, second seasoners (T43, Wyck, Join etc), just need some prices to shorten

itching like hell now for it to start

well yes looks like am going to have to ride the quiscover bet...he ran much better the other day...i was pleased anyway

yup nice workout, another one would be nice

well not sure he will now, as race will come to soon, we will see

he may not need it but it would be nice to see the price come down a bit!

yes indeed but they seem very keen in leaving the handbrake firmly on...not ideal but running out of opportunities tbf

not even entered at Chelts I take it?

Have you factored a possible late switch to the Irish version?

no entry at chelt...no chance of a switch this is the aim...and loved the fences last year till its fall...had jumped well till then and was going well

yes good news then, stick to the plan mate, keep nibbling the price gently, I am laying plenty too as stated in my notes

anyway apologies folks the question still remains

does it worry any zarkandar fans that the champion hurdle is run over a different trip and course than in the international hurdle??

Can't have Zarkandar, think he will get caught out for toe at a crucial stage and will stay on but race will be gone, can't have HF as I think he's legs won't cope with a fast run CH, Grandouet don't think he has the fight in him up the hill, for me all roads lead to the Champ, last year 3 secs quicker than 2011, ROR to win again

ROR needs a strong pace as much as Zarkandar. Will Fehily make it if there's no pace?

"Last year´s Triumph Hurdle winner Zarkandar made it 4-4 as a hurdler when grinding out success in the Betfair Hurdle Handicap on his belated return at Newbury last month, but was reported to have coughed after that and didn´t have an ideal prep for this,his most demanding race to date."

QUOTES: Paul Nicholls, trainer of Rock On Ruby: "Brampour and Zarkandar are a year too young. I was disappointed when I saw Zarkandar in the paddock. He looked a bit shelly and a bit light. I fear the Betfair Hurdle left its mark. We will put him away for next year."

That was last year

Now:

"That was perfect. Job done. Zarkandar wasn´t right for much of last season, but everything has gone perfectly this time and he looked stunning beforehand. He´s had a nice gallop round without having a hard race"

"He never looked like that (physically) last year - he was never right after the coughing and class got him through the Betfair Hurdle but he wasn´t right in the Champion. He is obviously better as he hasn´t been trained for this race and when he came back he didn´t want to school after his fall at Aintree. We worked out what was going to happen in the race and so the pair of them helped each other out and there didn´t deserve to be a loser. This race was in preparation for the International at Cheltenhamnext month and after that I suppose coming back here for the Kingwell Hurdle in the spring before the Champion could be the way for him." - Paul Nicholls, trainer

In running:

"Pressed leader throughout, travelling best upsides 2 out, led narrowly soon after last and driven, drifted slightly right, kept finding, held on well, all out "

" Pressed leader until slight lead from 3rd but soon joined, narrowly headed 2 out, soon pushed along and took narrow lead last, driven and stayed on strongly run-in"

For what it's worth here is my view:

Anybody who thinks Zarkandar cannot win the champion knows nowt about racing. There isn't a single excuse which cannot be addressed. Given the opposition I certainly wouldn't be confident but he will run some race and whatever gets past him will know he's been in a race.

indeed eeo

anyone using last years champion to say he can't win this year pays no attention to what the trainer said, as quoted above, and scant attention to the history of the race

It may seem harsh to say it but anybody who couldn't see how different he both looked and travelled at Wincanton first time which was hardly likely to suit is in the wrong game. Don't get me wrong. ROR is a serious tool on good ground and The Fly will take some beating on very soft but this fella will be a different proposition to last year.

Eo, I think the point that is worth pointing out is that if you give a view opposing a horse in a race, unless you have actually stated that the horse won't win by any means....then you do actually accept that the horse has a chance of winning, it's just your view that it won't win for the reasons given and in this case anyone who thinks that this horse won't win on the grounds of it getting out-paced has a valid argument because he's shown it before on more than one occasion, whether it's a correct view remains to be seen, but it's a fair viewpoint, as for someone earlier comparing ROR to Harchibald!!!!

I was thinking more Grandeout than ROR when comparing him to Harchibald. ROR wasn't really travelling over Zarkander at any stage. Ruby's first instinct was to check where Grandeout was, he knew ROR wouldn't be a factor in that race. Although my overall point was that I'd rather have a battler than a traveller in the closing stages. Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca etc. ROR is obv a danger if it's better ground but I can't have Grandeout and don't care if he was travelling better last time.

As usual people on here cover their own angles. I've said this horse won't be winning, and i also believe he will be comfortably beat. Eeternaloptimist, does this mean you know nothing if i'm right and you're wrong ?

Fair enough GCW, however, I thought that quite clearly ROR was travelling comfortably better than Zark,he blew up though rather than chucking it in or anything of that ilk,he isn't by any means the easier travelling bridle type because he's shown on numerous occasions that he's quite the opposite, a tough battler that finds, it's just that although he's adept at that, he still travels better than Zark too.

Pace will be fast enough, Ror, Cin and Ash, C.Flame likely to set the fractions, Zark is a different horse this year. No excuses, only danger to the fly

Graeme

Nope. Allow me to clarify my point for your benefit:

Zarkandar could indeed find any one of several horses too good on the day. He might as you seem to think lose his chance through hitting a flat spot which pushes him back at a crucial point which prevents him getting back up.

Now on to the bit I think you need to grasp:

He is an improved horse this season. In each of his races you would have worried about the dreaded flat spot prior to the race but he managed to travel strongly enough in all of them for it never to have realistically seemed as if something was going by him never mind leaving him behind. This can be contrasted with both his races last season. Lets leave his champion run to one side for a minute. If you watch the Betfair he looked in trouble about a half mile from home and that was off a handicap mark of about 150.

Now you either accept that he is a much improved horse this year or you don't. My eyes tell me he is and history tells us that most hurdlers improve from 5 to 6.

I haven't yet had a bet because I want to know the time of the supreme before committing but Zarkandar is very prominent in my thoughts and could even stop me having a bet in the race if the ground isn't spot on for the one I'd like to back. If it is soft then despite my previous comments I think it will be between Zarkandar and The Fly.

With the rain coming on the weekend I think Zarkander backers will be delighted. Ground is key especially in the CH. Grandouet has been beaten 3 times by Zar can't have him with countfeit. ROR wants good ground but he can stay 2 & 1/2 miles so maybe he could be okay. Its him and the Fly as the two dangers.

Eeternaloptimist, you can clarify all you want with your smug comments, but let me tell you want you need to grasp seeing as you're being one dimensional. Zarkandar isn't the only horse who has room for improvement. You are talking as if next weeks race is a carbon copy of last years, but the only part that will change is that Zarkandar will be alot better. If you want to take last years race as an example, then i could use it to further enhance my opinion that Zarkandar won't be winning, as if there's a good bit of rain then Hurricane Fly will be a different animal from last years run. Grandouet is also 6, and has previously won an International, so if he gets there fully fit then he has a shout. ROR is the champion, and there is potential improvement in him also. Even with Zarkandars improvement, he in my opinion will not be winning a Champion hurdle. So all the Quantum Leap fans who have paused time and made Zarkandar their new winner will have to think again like proud Edwards army.

Might I suggest graeme you could also be seen as one-dimensional in the way you are dismissing Zarkandar.

Of course you need to look at other horses and make a judgement on them. Some, including myself, believe that Zarkandar will show a big step up from last year based on the natural improvement usually associated from 5 to 6 and the fact he wasn't right in last year's race. You don't, that's fine.

Yes ROR may have improved but to my eye hasn't shown it so far this year. He needs the ground to dry up and if he does he will be my saver on the day, if not he will be dismissed.

Grandouet is a talented horse, no doubt. But his run in the International was on the back of two previous runs that season and his best performance as a juvenile was again after a series of runs. I have formed the opinion he improves with each run and so not having a proper prep will have seriously hindered his ability to perform at his optimum.

HF may well not have been at his best last year either and soft ground will certainly help his cause. For me he is dismissed on price grounds.

So big bollox, tell us the winner and reasoning. Have you backed said horse and if so at what price?

Graeme

You're making an awful lot of assumptions but seem incapable of doing so regarding Zarkandar.

One of your more enlightened posts Graeme

I'm gutted Roob. I was answering your question with regards to whi i backed for the CH and all the rest of it. It took me all of my time to answer, and it didn't show up. I can't be bothered answering the question now.   

Zarkandar reminds me a lot of Big Bucks in that he'll only ever do what's required to win a race,it will never be flash,it will never be winning on the bridle job,He's just efficient and as tough as they come,

Not that it matters a jot but he'd be well capable of winning Group races on the flat,He's just a classy animal.

C'mon Mr Nicholls,Get that Flat licence and win an Ascot Gold Cup for yourself

Big Bucks was never flashy ???? aye right you are then !

Come on graeme, horse, price and brief reasons - won't take long

Not really.As he's more often than not scrubbed along at some stage in his races,He's a lazy racer.

You don't have a clue what you're talking about. Stick to womans magazines.

Drying ground?..tighter Old Course?...must leave doubts about him getting out paced at some stage...going crucial imo.

Wait for the day...even then be careful...good to soft...will probably mean good.